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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Member Is Offline
Mood: Happy!
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Good luck all of you down there; hang on tight, be safe.
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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Sandbags? If you're located along the coast with an elevation of less than 10' above sea level and this storm hits you, save your time and energy. Get
any and all important papers, family pictures, valuables, etc. and head for high ground. Our prayers are with ya'll. Good luck.
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villadelfin
Nomad
Posts: 273
Registered: 4-8-2006
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: toasted and buttered
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another source of weather information
www.cfe.gob.mx
the site is in spanish but they have some very informative graphics. They say that at the moment John will miss landfall.
Select your town on the drop down and check hurricanes and 3 day prognosis
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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Lencho. Are we talking about a major storm hitting Baja? Talking to who? Who the heck do you think I'm talking to?
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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Storm advice.
Did not intend to offend anyone. Sorry if my lack of language skills was misinterpreted Have seen one or two too many hurricanes. Only wanted to pass
on some good advice.. Good luck to Larry and all in the storms path.
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Bajabus
Senior Nomad
Posts: 892
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: Elias Calles B.C.S. or NC USA
Member Is Offline
Mood: My friends..it's good.
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having gone to Slidell 2 days after Katrina struck and spent 3 weeks in the area providing disaster communications I can attest to how powerful and
quickly a storm surge can move in.
If the storm swings slightly toward the pacific then the back end of the storm will sweep up tremendous amounts of water at high tide into the
numerous small bays/inlets along the east cape road.....that's a formula for disaster for many of the low lying homes and shacks that are along that
road. Think venturi effect......only with water instead. A rapid increase in the velocity and height of the water is the result and the backwash is
the icing on the top of the cake.
If I were not at least 30 - 50ft above sea level I would be seriously worried, even in a cement structure.
In waveland I met a distraught woman, she told a harrowing tale. A 1/4 mile inland her husband convinced her they were safe, in the middle of the
night the water began rising quickly, within 15 mins they were on the roof of a 2 story home, minutes later the house washed out from under them.
They held on for dear life in a tree for hours.....eventually her husband slipped away and drowned...pulled under by the debris in the backwash. the
now bare slab that was her home was 28ft above sea level.
Nope...why take the chance. find high ground now with a neighbor and play it safe. My home is about 55 feet above the pacific at high tide and 219
meter back from the high tide mark.
"Preventive war was an invention of Hitler. Frankly I would not even listen to anyone seriously that came and talked of such a thing."
Dwight David Eisenhower
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Bajabus
Senior Nomad
Posts: 892
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: Elias Calles B.C.S. or NC USA
Member Is Offline
Mood: My friends..it's good.
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John downgraded to Cat 2
but it could intensify before hitting...looks like it may be a wee bit better for everyone. Big diff between a cat 2 and 4
tracking as of 5PM
john track
"Preventive war was an invention of Hitler. Frankly I would not even listen to anyone seriously that came and talked of such a thing."
Dwight David Eisenhower
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9006
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
Member Is Offline
Mood: Inquisitive
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Latest Discussion
Hurricane John Discussion Number 14
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on August 31, 2006
Reports from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon
indicate that John is weaker than earlier intensity estimates. A
dropsonde in the eye measured a central pressure of 973 mb with a
20 kt surface wind...so the actual minimum pressure is actually a
little lower. Current intensity is set at 90 kt...in reasonable
agreement with a surface wind measurement from a GPS dropsonde in
the eastern eyewall. Aside from the eyewall replacement observed
yesterday...it is not clear why John has weakened so much. Perhaps
it was due to the interaction of the circulation with the
mountainous landmass of southwestern Mexico. Although John has
weakened...it still has a well-established upper-level outflow
pattern and there is an opportunity for some restrengthening before
the center reaches southern Baja California. Once John starts
moving away from the Baja Peninsula...it should begin traversing
significantly cooler sea surface temperatures and steadily weaken.
The initial motion is 315/11...slightly to the right of the previous
estimate. John continues to move along the southwestern periphery
of a middle- to upper-level ridge...with some possible interaction
with the smaller Hurricane...Kristy...located some 600 miles to its
west. Now that the GFDL model has shifted further to the left...
the track model guidance is now in better agreement on a track that
would take John near or over the southern Baja Peninsula...and then
takes John on a more westward track thereafter.
The Hurricane Warning has been extended a little northward along
both coasts of the Baja Peninsula. The wind radii have been
adjusted from the observations reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 31/2100z 20.7n 107.0w 90 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 21.8n 108.0w 95 kt
24hr VT 01/1800z 22.8n 109.4w 95 kt
36hr VT 02/0600z 23.5n 110.7w 90 kt
48hr VT 02/1800z 24.1n 112.2w 85 kt
72hr VT 03/1800z 24.7n 115.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 04/1800z 25.0n 119.0w 55 kt
120hr VT 05/1800z 25.0n 123.0w 40 kt
$$
forecaster Mainelli/Pasch
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Bajabus
Senior Nomad
Posts: 892
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: Elias Calles B.C.S. or NC USA
Member Is Offline
Mood: My friends..it's good.
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Mark Rockwell from Elias calles reports the lines in Cabo at gas stations were over a hour long and at Sorina's he says all the checkers were working
and it took him a hour and a half to get checked out,, not one parking spot in CCC. its raining in cabo now, got that from a neighbor that just called
a friend there.
"Preventive war was an invention of Hitler. Frankly I would not even listen to anyone seriously that came and talked of such a thing."
Dwight David Eisenhower
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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Report from San Jose
Overcast and threatening but no wind nor rain yet.
The downgrade has given us some hope. As mentioned there is a heck of a difference in 2 and 4....
Needless to say, I probably wont be on line tomorrow.
Y'all think of me
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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With the warm water in the SOC it would not surprise me if John makes a right at Cabo and goes up the Gulf rather than turning left like many are
models predicting.....I hope not though, that warm water could also pump up wind speed.
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bajawife
Junior Nomad
Posts: 27
Registered: 4-4-2006
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajajudy
Overcast and threatening but no wind nor rain yet.
The downgrade has given us some hope. As mentioned there is a heck of a difference in 2 and 4....
Needless to say, I probably wont be on line tomorrow.
Y'all think of me |
I've never been in a hurricane, nor do I want to...we will be thinking of you all there and waiting for your updates when you can.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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I just read my signature and decided to do a jig around my desk and I feel much better
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Judy
I believe we will all get through this just fine, because we prepare which is all you can do, You will probably be happy after the storm your new
Marina will probably be gone, for sure cat 3-4. We are just starting to get clouds. The marine radio hear is going crazy, if you think you don't like
a hurricane on land just think about the yachties, they can loose everything many do every hurricane.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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Al G
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2647
Registered: 12-19-2004
Location: Todos Santos/Full time for now...
Member Is Offline
Mood: Wondering what is next???
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How true Judy, How true.
We will be worrying so sign on as soon as possible.
Albert G
Remember, if you haven\'t got a smile on your face and laughter in your heart, then you are just a sour old fart!....
The most precious thing we have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value.
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Thousands ordered to flee Hurricane John
POSTED: 5:26 p.m. EDT, August 31, 2006
Adjust font size:
CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico (CNN) -- Government officials ordered the evacuation of 15,000 people from low-lying areas on the Baja California peninsula
Thursday as Hurricane John approached, the state governor's office said.
Officials said residents would be evacuated from low-lying areas by force if necessary, and hotels were sending foreign tourists home, Reuters
reported. (Watch Mexico brace for Hurricane John -- :58)
"We are evacuating everyone," Mithza Velazquez, concierge at the beachfront Hilton Hotel in Los Cabos, told Reuters. (Path)
John already has caused heavy flooding on Mexico's mainland between the popular tourist destination of Acapulco and the city of Manzanillo to the
northwest.
The Mexican government warned residents along the coast to "rush to completion" protective measures for Hurricane John, as a hurricane warning was
issued for the area from Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, northwest of Guadalajara. Islas Marias was included.
In its 5 p.m. ET advisory, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm was about 65 miles southwest of Las Islas Marias about 240 miles
southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.
"Preparations to protect life and property in these areas should have already been completed," the National Hurricane Center said, quoting the
government.
Hurricane John was downgraded from a Category 3 storm to Category 2 Thursday afternoon, when its top winds weakened from 125 mph to 105.
A hurricane warning remained in effect for the southern Baja peninsula from San Everisto southward on the east coast and from Bahia Magdalena
southward on the west coast.
A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within 24 hours.
A tropical storm warning remained in effect from San Blas to Mazatlan.
Mexican civil defense authorities said 10,000 residents were affected, including many in Acapulco, which has a population of 1 million.
In the fishing mecca of Cabo San Lucas, at the tip of Baja California, authorities said they were preparing shelters for the possible evacuation of
30,000 people. All flights from that area to the United States were nearly sold out, officials said.
The center of the hurricane was about 60 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes.
The storm was moving to the northwest at near 13 mph, a motion that was expected to continue for at least 24 hours. The center will move near or over
southern Baja California on Friday, forecasters said.
Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 35 miles from John's center. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 105 miles.
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 18 inches, were possible along the western coast of Mexico within the warning areas.
These amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over areas of mountainous terrain, the hurricane center said.
Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 5 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected on the shores
near the path of the center of the hurricane, it said.
John is the 10th named storm of the season in the eastern Pacific. Storms in the eastern Pacific are named separately from those in the Atlantic, the
central Pacific or the western Pacific.
Last October, Hurricane Wilma pounded Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula with 125 mph winds and heavy rains. The Category 3 storm dealt a heavy blow to the
tourism industry in Cancun, Cozumel and Playa de Carmen.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ernesto's maximum sustained winds reached 70 mph Thursday, just 4 mph short of Category 1 hurricane strength, as it lashed
the eastern Carolinas. (Full story)
CNN's Chad Myers, Keith Oppenheim and Harris Whitbeck contributed to this report.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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JESSE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
Member Is Offline
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My guess is that since a third of the hurricane is inside the Mex mainland, once it leaves the mainland and has plenty of space and all the warm
water, it will spring back to a category 3, and who knows, perhaps a 4.
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Skeet/Loreto
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4709
Registered: 9-2-2003
Member Is Offline
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Jesse: You take care, Ya Hear!
Skeet/Loreto
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oxxo
Super Nomad
Posts: 2137
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
Member Is Offline
Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
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Tides
Can anyone tell me what the magnitude and times of the tides are in the Los Cabos tomorrow? My condo is on the third floor so I should be okay there.
But the bodega, which is packed full of stuff, is on the ground floor and it could get wet in there with the surge combined with a particularly high
tide.
Thanks.
By the way, I am in California right now so not in personal danger. I am worried about our gringo and chollero friends there though. From reports
they have given me, they are all properly hunkered down right now.
Stay safe, stay smart Cabo friends.
[Edited on 8-31-2006 by oxxo]
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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oxxo
They are talking just a 5ft surge right now.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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