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EdwardTeach
Newbie
Posts: 17
Registered: 9-17-2014
Location: Here be dragons
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Limon
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4977
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014
...SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4977
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014
...SIMON EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS OVER OR
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO...NAYARIT...SOUTHERN
SINALOA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4977
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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buen dia amigos...it looks as if Simon is reaching the cape area this morning so it would be nice to begin our on site reports. Is it raining yet down
there?
It is very hot and muggy here in Asuncion this morning and we are seeing the outer bands already as Simon works it's way up.
dont forget not to cross those arroyos when they start to run...good luck everyone.
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Mula
Super Nomad
Posts: 1653
Registered: 8-16-2011
Location: San Nicolas y Lopez Mateos
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Here in Lopez - first day of really thick fog.
Heading to San Nicolas for the cabalgata and fiesta tomorrow, so no reports from Lopez until Monday.
edited for typo.
[Edited on 10-3-2014 by Mula]
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15938
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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finger and toes are crossed!
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Here is the 8:00 am discussion which sort of says nobody is quite sure where Simon will spin. Looks like we are in for more rain somewhere
though...any reports from the tip this morning?????
TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014
First-light visible imagery and a 1205 UTC SSMI/S overpass indicate
that Simon has become a little better organized. The storm has a
central dense overcast with outer bands present in all quadrants,
and the microwave data shows a mid-level eyewall forming near or
over the low-level center. However, the cloud pattern continues
to show some signs of easterly shear. Satellite intensity
estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and recent CIMSS ADT, AMSU,
and SATCON estimates are 50-55 kt. The initial intensity is thus
increased to 50 kt.
The initial motion is now 285/8. Simon should move generally
west-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so as it is steered by
the subtropical ridge to the north and northeast. After that time,
the track guidance becomes very divergent. The GFS, GFS ensemble
mean, and UKMET forecast Simon to recurve through a break in the
ridge near 115W and move inland over Baja California and
northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF and the NAVGEM show Simon moving much
farther west, with a northward turn delayed until the cyclone is
west of 120W. Given the magnitude of the disagreement, the official
forecast will follow the trend of the previous forecast in showing
a slow northward to northeastward motion from 72-120 hours. The new
forecast track is and update of the previous track and similar to,
but slower than, the Florida State Superensemble.
Simon will be moving over warmer water with SSTs near 28-29C during
the next 24-36 hours while the deep-layer vertical shear is
expected to be light. This should allow continued strengthening
until the cyclone encounters cooler waters in 36-48 hours. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in
best agreement with the SHIPS model. There are two major sources
of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The first is that rapid
intensification is still a possibility during the next 24 hours or
so, although the probabilities shown in the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index are slowly decreasing. Second, how much cool
water Simon will encounter is dependent on the track. The GFS track
would keep the storm over relatively warm water, while the ECMWF/
NAVGEM track would take it over much cooler water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 18.6N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.5N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 21.5N 116.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 24.5N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
Forecaster Beven
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6943
Registered: 8-5-2011
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Shari says: "nobody is quite sure where Simon will spin"
Forecaster says: "the track guidance becomes very divergent"
Shari, you should apply for a job writing these reports! 
surface winds
[Edited on 10-3-2014 by SFandH]
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13033
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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I am just curious....by the look of the satellite, the cape may be getting some rain...can anyone from down there report? Our land lines have been out
for 3 days now...so maybe they have no internet down there?
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micah202
Super Nomad
Posts: 1615
Registered: 1-19-2011
Location: vancouver,BC
Member Is Offline
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.
http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Asuncion-Bay/tides/lates...
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sd
Nomad
Posts: 487
Registered: 3-19-2008
Member Is Offline
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Forecast for Cabo is rain now through Tuesday, 80-90% chance each day.
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windgrrl
Super Nomad
Posts: 1323
Registered: 9-2-2006
Member Is Offline
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Cabo webcam shows dark skies:
http://www.cabovillas.com/campage.asp?id=5
When the way comes to an end, then change. Having changed, you pass through.
~ I-Ching
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Bill Collector
Nomad
Posts: 374
Registered: 1-13-2004
Location: Buena Vista, BCS
Member Is Offline
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Buena Vista had a couple rain drops, small rollers are starting.
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4977
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 9
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014
...SIMON STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES SOCORRO ISLAND...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER SOCORRO
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT SIMON IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4977
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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VERY limited internet
cloudy, some rain, no wind
what is left of my plants needs a good soaking. we are seeing little green leaves on many that sure looked dead.
this is going to take quite some time to recover from
thanks for all the good wishes, nomads
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mulegemichael
Super Nomad
Posts: 2310
Registered: 12-24-2007
Location: sequim,wa. and mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: up on step
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bueno suerte, judy....we're in mulege so can commiserate...last one pushed over 7 feet of surging sewer water throughout our house and guest casitas
leaving just over 18" of mud on every surface...just got it cleaned up....here comes simon...price ya pay for living in paradise...i guess.
dyslexia is never having to say you\'re yrros.
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watizname
Senior Nomad
Posts: 769
Registered: 8-7-2009
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Boy, that little island that is way out there where these storms have been gathering strength, has really been getting it's a$$ kicked. Seems the last
two or three storms have been right on top of it. Glad I don't live there. Does anyone??
I yam what I yam and that\'s all what I yam.
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bajacalifornian
Super Nomad
Posts: 1117
Registered: 9-4-2010
Location: Loreto/Lopez Mateos/Rosarito
Member Is Offline
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SOCORRO ISLAND quick read
https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8...
"There is a naval station
WikiMiniAtlas
18°43′41″N 110°57′07″W / 18.728°N 110.952°W / 18.728; -110.952, established in 1957, with a population
of 250 (staff and families)"
American by birth, Mexican by choice.
Signature addendum: Danish physicist — Niels Bohr — who said, “The opposite of one profound truth may very well be another profound truth.
Jeff Petersen
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