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Sweetwater
Senior Nomad
Posts: 915
Registered: 11-26-2010
Member Is Offline
Mood: chilly today hot tomale
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Ay, dios mio.....good luck amigos....hope for moderation of another storm.....
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4980
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS SIMON WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
SOON...AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4980
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014
...Simon is likely to become a tropical
depression in 36 hours and a remnant low by 48 hours, before it
reaches the Baja California peninsula. Forecast fields from the
global models indicate that the cyclone will have dissipated over
northwestern Mexico by day 4, which is indicated in the official
forecast.
The model guidance is in relatively good agreement on the future track of
Simon, but there continues to be disagreement on how fast Simon or
its remnants reach the Baja California peninsula. For example, the
GFS and ECMWF solutions are about 24 hours apart on when they bring
the center of Simon to the coast. The updated NHC track forecast
is a little faster than the previous one after 24 hours but is
relatively close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.
Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture
associated with the cyclone is expected to spread across the
northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into
the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in
those regions in a few days.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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monoloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6667
Registered: 7-13-2009
Location: Pescadero BCS
Member Is Offline
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We just drove from Loreto to El Rosario today, and other than a few sprinkles around Jesus Maria, it was good weather. It looks like we'll outrun
Simon.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4980
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4980
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13034
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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pretty quiet on here lately...I hear it is raining in Mulege. We have a very light drizzle here and lightening out to sea and 10-15 knots of wind from
the south...sure hope I dont have to mop up tonight...gonna try to rest just in case...kind of tired from all that spinning...good night amigos...not
sure we will have internet in the morning...wish us luck.
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Mulegena
Super Nomad
Posts: 2412
Registered: 11-7-2006
Member Is Offline
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Yep, it was raining all evening here in Mulege and up in the mountains to the west. Rain in town stopped about 9 pm tonight.
Two updates:
Word today came down from the mountain family in La Purisima: High-country goat ranchers above Purisima reported the high arroyos running hard today
with possibility of drainage arriving down to Mulege. They did not predict vast flooding in Mulege if the rain up there did not continue
through the night and into Monday.
10 pm. Word from town is that the far-western colonias and agricultural area of western Mulege are receiving water in the arroyo come down from the
mountains. No word if pre-emptive evacuation is taking place.
[Edited on 10-6-2014 by Mulegena]
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Mulegena, please update on river flow through the estero. I personally am hoping now the residual dirt is 'mud-flowed' out, the drainage will be more
effective. Only time, and unfortunately effect, can prove if worth its' works or not. Praise and protection wished to all .......
bb
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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Mulegena
Super Nomad
Posts: 2412
Registered: 11-7-2006
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajabuddha
Mulegena, please update on river flow through the estero. I personally am hoping now the residual dirt is 'mud-flowed' out, the drainage will be more
effective. Only time, and unfortunately effect, can prove if worth its' works or not. Praise and protection wished to all .......
bb |
Yes, of course, I will update as I receive information. Rain in town has stopped now since about 9 pm.
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Mulegena
| Quote: | Originally posted by bajabuddha
Mulegena, please update on river flow through the estero. I personally am hoping now the residual dirt is 'mud-flowed' out, the drainage will be more
effective. Only time, and unfortunately effect, can prove if worth its' works or not. Praise and protection wished to all .......
bb |
Yes, of course, I will update as I receive information. Rain in town has stopped now since about 9 pm. |
I know you know, but this is just a tertiary storm that you've just had. The heavier moisture is 36 to 72 hours out, given 12. Just know, I'm
rootin' fer ya, and I know a couple other curmudgeons who are too. Buena suerte, vecina. (hope my espagnole speling is korekt).
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4980
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014
...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON
TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4980
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014
Simon is forecast to become a tropical depression
within 36 hours and should degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday,
before the center reaches the Baja California peninsula.
Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4980
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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Mulegena
Super Nomad
Posts: 2412
Registered: 11-7-2006
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajabuddha
| Quote: | Originally posted by Mulegena
| Quote: | Originally posted by bajabuddha
Mulegena, please update on river flow through the estero. I personally am hoping now the residual dirt is 'mud-flowed' out, the drainage will be more
effective. Only time, and unfortunately effect, can prove if worth its' works or not. Praise and protection wished to all .......
bb |
Yes, of course, I will update as I receive information. Rain in town has stopped now since about 9 pm. |
I know you know, but this is just a tertiary storm that you've just had. The heavier moisture is 36 to 72 hours out, given 12. Just know, I'm
rootin' fer ya, and I know a couple other curmudgeons who are too. Buena suerte, vecina. (hope my espagnole speling is korekt).
|
Thanks for your good will. All we Mulegin@s truly appreciate it.
We're also just a little edgy tonight as tertiary storm or no, it's what comes down the western arroyos that makes us antsy.
11 pm Update: The flow has reached the pilings under the bridge. It's not much, not fast, not deep, but it's there and making the river expand it's
edges just a bit. My friend Raffita Romero has posted a few pictures on his Facebook page. What a good guy he is.
As to the excavation I can't comment except to say that three weeks post-Odile the river is still running brown at out-going tide.
We'll see how the mountains handle things tonight. Let's hope we're safe & dry and all our dirt roads are still passable in the morning.
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Dr. Jeff Master's blog, wunderground.com:
"Simon is expected to recurve to the northeast, and bring rains of 2" - 4" to the central coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula as it dissipates near
landfall on Tuesday. Deep moisture from Simon will flow northeastward across Mainland Mexico and into the Southwest U.S. this week..."
Still a crapshoot, and wishing the best to all. Bottom line is, where Simon crosses will be lots of water, be it Cataviña, Mulege, or wherever
current travelers are headed south. All be wary; I wouldn't want to be headed through it. Please, leave a little extra 'travel-time' like in the
Olden Daze when one expected delays. This is still a potential BIG delay.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4980
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 19
200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014
...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGHTOUT THESE AREAS.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4980
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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Pescador
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3587
Registered: 10-17-2002
Location: Baja California Sur
Member Is Offline
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Thanks Mulegena. Got reports from San Bruno and Santa Rosalia that it was raining pretty hard. I am trying to haul down a travel trailer from
Phoenix so guess I will watch this a little bit maybe at Tecate or somewhere before I head across the desert.
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larryC
Super Nomad
Posts: 1488
Registered: 8-11-2008
Location: BoLA
Member Is Offline
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So far in BoLA we are only getting light sprinkles, but everyone here is hoping for the best.
Off grid, 12-190 watt evergreen solar panels on solar trackers, 2-3648 stacked Outback inverters, 610ah LiFePo4 48v battery bank, FM 60 and MX60
Outback charge controllers, X-240 Outback transformer for 240v from inverters, 6500 watt Kubota diesel generator.
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