BajaNomad

Tropical Storm John

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oxxo - 8-31-2006 at 04:22 PM

Found the tide tables. Tomorrow there is a high tide at 1:42 pm of 3.1 feet at Cabo San Lucas. Height is not a real problem but timing is not good, which will probably be right in the middle of all the action.

Taco de Baja - 8-31-2006 at 04:23 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by oxxo
Can anyone tell me what the magnitude and times of the tides are in the Los Cabos tomorrow? My condo is on the third floor so I should be okay there. But the bodega, which is packed full of stuff, is on the ground floor and it could get wet in there with the surge combined with a particularly high tide.

Thanks.


Should not be too high or too low as the moon is in its 1st 1/4 today- generally the highest lows and the lowest highs

Here is a link to the tides in La Paz, could not find one for Cabo. La Paz is close enough to be about the same. You can scroll arouns the site for other cities if you want.

La Paz Tides

La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico
31 August 2006 - 1 September 2006
24.1617? N, 110.3450? W

2006-08-31 07:02 MDT Sunrise
2006-08-31 12:34 MDT 1.13 meters High Tide
2006-08-31 13:49 MDT Moonrise
2006-08-31 16:57 MDT First Quarter
2006-08-31 19:40 MDT Sunset
2006-09-01 00:26 MDT Moonset
2006-09-01 01:45 MDT 0.37 meters Low Tide
2006-09-01 07:02 MDT Sunrise
2006-09-01 13:12 MDT 1.08 meters High Tide
2006-09-01 14:49 MDT Moonrise
2006-09-01 19:39 MDT Sunset


[Edited on 9-1-2006 by Taco de Baja]

Cypress - 8-31-2006 at 04:34 PM

If the storm hits at cat 3 strength the storm surge will be in excess of 10' to 15' and the waves will be topping it off, 8' to 10' high at a minimum. Take some pictures before you leave, things will be very different when you return. Good Luck.

thebajarunner - 8-31-2006 at 05:17 PM

Sacramento t.v. is saying that Alaska Air is offering full refunds to anyone Baja bound.
Also, Alaska is trying to decide right now (5 p.m Thurs) whether to cancel some flights the next two days.

oxxo - 8-31-2006 at 05:37 PM

www.bouyweather.com is now predicting winds of 38 to 51 knots and seas of 18 feet at 9 seconds (between wave crests) off the Cabo coast for Friday morning and moderating on Friday afternoon.

Bajabus - 8-31-2006 at 07:01 PM

Report from Rick in Elias Calles as of 7:40 pm local time it is perfectly still,no breeze,nothing, temp it 88. Looks like it's gonna come in around Cabo and exit around Todos Santos, Pescadero, Elias calles area. My worker came by, got paid and says the cats are ok.

comitan - 8-31-2006 at 07:06 PM

Well heres another opinion I think its going into the SOC where the water is warmer and build up. If it just goes to cabo it won't be strong enough to do much damage. Its really difficult right now to tell were it is from the latest Sat. The following is latest advisery.

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 312348
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JOHN MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN
BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 210
MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS UP
TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...21.0 N...107.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

Bajabus - 8-31-2006 at 07:13 PM

I don't know how many folks here know Lou Quaccia out on the east cape. He is a fixture out there, nice guy, deeply religious, Owned a large successful vineyard in CA before settling down in BCS. He built one of the first real luxury houses out there with all the modern conveniences. If you drove the road years ago you would know the house I'm talking about, it stood out, huge communication tower (Juliette knocked it down once), tons of solar, 2 massive Genny's, reverse osmosis, the works. He just sent this:

: HURICAN JUAN

DEAREST AMIGOS ?HOPING ALL IS WELL . THE DAY OF RECKONING IS ALMOST UPON US.WE PRAY TO EL SENOR TO GIVE US STRENGTH, COURAGE , AND PERSERVERANCE TO WEATHER THIS STORM. AND, TO HELP THOSE WHO NEED HELP IN THE AFTERMATH.

JUAN WAS ABOUT 217 MILES SOUTHEAST OF US A 3PM. STRENGTH HAS DROPPED TO 90 KNOTS THAT,S GOOD NEWS BUT IT COULD STRENGTHEN BEFORE ARRIVING HERE AROUND FRIDAY NOON.

IT SEEMS THE EYE IS ABOUT IN THE CSJ/PLYITA AREA.

THIS WILL I,M SURE BE A LONG NITE AND NXT DAY.. INTERESTING THAT SINCE I,VE BEEN HERE 12 YRS ALL THE HURRICANES HAVE ARRIVED AT NITE.

PLS NOTE SHEET NO. 3 GOES EAST ? IR THAT THE RAIN BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF LLUVIA BEFORE THE CENTER ARRIVES.

QUE DIOS LOS BENDIGA- CUIDATE MUCHO- LOU-

[Edited on 1-9-2006 by Bajabus]

comitan - 8-31-2006 at 08:07 PM

Larry

Just my opinion, no other agenda, don't need the excitment, not bored plenty of projects.

Sallysouth - 8-31-2006 at 08:25 PM

Just spoke with Mija in Cabo.No rain yet, very still.The calm before the storm you could say. Lots of prayers for my family and friends in Baja Sur tonite........Sally

Bajagypsy - 8-31-2006 at 08:59 PM

Shari & Juan and the zoo that lives with them

Just hoping that the hurricane doesn't get up to where you are, (This is Alilcia and Todd by the way), we can't wait to see you in November.

Hold on tight and lots of love
T & A and the zoo that lives with us

Paula - 8-31-2006 at 09:08 PM

Y'all think of me.....

Keep on dancing Judy, Comitan, Jesse, Lera, Lencho, all of you... I'll be hoping and dancing all the way up here with you....

Welp...

Sharksbaja - 9-1-2006 at 12:57 AM

there IS a god!!:saint:

John

BajaRob - 9-1-2006 at 02:24 AM

is now a cat 3 with sustained winds of 115 mph as of 11:00 pm Thursday. Central pressure is 960 mb. Tropical storm watch has been extended to Mulege.

Shimmer - 9-1-2006 at 04:38 AM

Rain have started in Todos Santos...... calm and raining large drops...... I am continueing my prep. It is going to be down to the wire for me here to get all my shutters/plywood up.

Should I disconect/ shut off my Propane?

Judy...... how is San Jose this morning?

Bajabus - 9-1-2006 at 06:34 AM

I would shut off the propane...ya never know. I hear the police have taken control of all the gas stations in Cabo. rain in EC started falling lightly around 3:40 local time.

the most important things I got familiar with during juliette were numerous buckets around the house and lots of towels under the windows and doors......just kept making the rounds wringing out towels into the buckets. Eventually it just got too hard to keep up...I looked like a prune by the end of it. I remember at one point water was running out of the electrical boxes.......I had power and utilities turned off.

5am advisory

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 06:45 AM

HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...POWERFUL JOHN HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 145 MILES...230 KM...WEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO.

JOHN HAS SLOWED OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE DANGEROUS CORE OF
HURRICANE JOHN WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.

bajajudy - 9-1-2006 at 06:47 AM

Pretty calm here with some rain. looking dark and ominous.
one thing to do around the windows is to lay a towel along the bottom with a little tail that runs into a bucket. It wicks the water into the bucket.
The banks are out of money and some of the pemex stations are out of gas.
Hasta

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 06:51 AM

.

Mexican residents, tourists brace for hurricane

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 06:52 AM

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0901HurricaneJohn01-O...

Associated Press
Sept. 1, 2006 05:55 AM

CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico - Hurricane John strengthened Friday as it took aim at Mexico's Baja California peninsula, where authorities threatened to forcibly evacuate people from their homes and thousands of tourists sheltered in hotel ballrooms.

John, which was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, was expected to make landfall somewhere along the southern tip of the peninsula around midday. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and could drop up to 18 inches of rain in places and create up to a 5-foot storm surge, forecasters at the U.S. National Weather Center in Miami said.

John was about 100 miles southeast of Baja's tip early Friday, moving at 10 mph. A hurricane warning was in effect for the southern part of the peninsula, including Cabo San Lucas and fellow resort San Jose del Cabo.

The storm's track was expected to take it out to sea this weekend, meaning there was little threat to the United States. Thus far, no deaths have been reported.

Officials on Thursday ordered the evacuation of about 10,000 people from Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo and at least 5,000 others from La Paz, the capital of the state of Baja California del Sur. Shelters had been set up at more than 100 schools.

In La Palma, where thousands of construction workers and hotel employees who work in the luxurious tourist resorts live under tarps and tarpaper shacks along a dry riverbed, police drove by ordering residents to evacuate. "This is the last warning, the next time we'll come and force you to leave," officers announced over loudspeakers.

State Gov. Narciso Agundez earlier said that residents who refuse to head for higher ground will be removed from their homes.

"I'm leaving for safety's sake. Things can be replaced, but not lives," said Ana Maria de Martinez, 60, as she nervously bundled up her tarps and few items of clothing and climbed into a Mexican Navy truck.

At one school shelter, distraught mothers stared at the bare concrete floors as their children scampered around them, most unaware of the menace approaching from the sea.

"I left more for the sake of my children's safety, than mine. I've already had a life, but they still have to live theirs," said Leonora Lazaro Alonso, 30, as her 8-year-old son and two daughters, 4 and 6, explored their temporary home at the shelter.

Across the peninsula, shop owners and hotels boarded up windows and hotel workers stripped rooms of light fixtures and furniture, in case plate-glass windows were shattered. Long lines snaked from gas stations and grocery store shelves were picked clean of many items.

Meanwhile, between 7,000 and 8,000 tourists who remained in Cabo San Lucas were relocated Thursday to hotel ballrooms and rooms away from the beach to wait out the storm.

"There's no other place to go," said Bill Crowley, a 42-year-old tourist from Lakewood, Colo. "I would evacuate the first floor of these hotels, but we're on the third floor, so we should be all right."

Paul Mares, also from Colorado, stocked up on a 12-pack of beer at a local store the evening before the hurricane was to strike, noting, "It's good to be prepared."

Officials closed the local airport Thursday night, ending a mad scramble for last-minute flights. Driving out wasn't much of an alternative - there's only one narrow road, 400 miles long, leading to Tijuana.

Tourism authorities said late Thursday that hotel occupancy rates were only about 40-50 percent, as most visitors had been advised to return home.

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 06:56 AM

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 07:17 AM

.

Bajabus - 9-1-2006 at 07:28 AM

Lou's weather station on the east cape reports .09 inches of rain as of this AM.

Looks like it will just touch the tip near cabo. this is bad news for storm surges along the east cape road...especially in the small bays and inlets. We have a VSAT terminal in Los Frailes. should be interesting to see what happens there since it is just the type of bay that will act as a funnel.

cymeryss - 9-1-2006 at 08:00 AM

Obviously not as critical as the areas down by Cabo, can somebody point to forecast for BOLA in terms of precipitation, since my vacation starts today and I was planning on staying in BOLA until Monday. My friends are already there but if it is going to rain the whole weekend then maybe I should stay in SD or head down to San Felipe only. Thanks.

Stay safe in CABO area.

Al G - 9-1-2006 at 08:12 AM

11 EST...Still holding at Cat 3
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611_sat.h...

Bajabus - 9-1-2006 at 08:36 AM

That is a scary picture.....by the looks of it the east cape will be hit hard with the east cape road cut in many areas. propane and water if it's trucked are going to be a long term challenge for many.

osoflojo - 9-1-2006 at 08:37 AM

NHC latest report shows that between 0600Z and 1800Z Friday the wind speed probobilities for CSL are:
64kts 48%
50kts 75%
34kts 97%
Stay safe all...................

Eli - 9-1-2006 at 08:49 AM

If there was ever a moment that I am grateful for this forum it is now. Thanks everyone for reports from home. I will be watching closely for the next 24 hours.

Saludos from peaceful (jeje) Oaxaca, Sara

reiminder

bajajudy - 9-1-2006 at 08:50 AM

Runnin around like a chicken without a head
But just wanted to remind everyone to take the blades off of any outdoor fans...otherwise they will be going 100mph and have a tendency to fly off
raining in waves. very black in the mountains. still not much wind

Al G - 9-1-2006 at 09:13 AM

Watching CNN and they are showing debris left laying everywhere!!! Please be aware and don't get in a place these missiles can harm you.

Bob H - 9-1-2006 at 09:27 AM

I was raised in Miami... and have experienced a few hurricanes. If I were in the Cabo area with a cat-3 approaching I would evacuate. Get out now and stay safe.
Bob H

Through 8am

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 09:37 AM

through 8am

jerry - 9-1-2006 at 09:46 AM

baja news
the eye looks like its moving right tward the soc?? east cape??
im worried that the warm water of the soc will draw john up the gut i hope im wrong

Hang in there Judy

frizkie - 9-1-2006 at 09:48 AM

Buena suerte, Judy to you, and to all mis amigos in my little pueblita of El Chorro.

My little town is near Santiago in Baja Sur. I have been having a bodega etc built there which was to be completed before my return in November (from Victoria Canada). I wonder if I will ever see my finished project..or is it being wiped away as we speak? Whatever, things are things are cosas!

I do pray that everyone down there is SAFE!!

Bajagypsy - 9-1-2006 at 09:54 AM

Just wanted to let everyone in the path of this hurricane, that this canadian family is thinking of you, and we hope that there is a minimal loss of life and housing.

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 10:13 AM

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...DANGEROUS JOHN APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 10:14 AM

My fear is that from the image and the projected path that this may be a direct hit on the Los Cabos area.

Hold on to your hats folks. Our thoughts are with you in BCS.

Baja News

frizkie - 9-1-2006 at 10:29 AM

Your updates are very helpful at a time like this. Although Hurricane John is causing much worry it is good to know exactly what is happening, and at what time. Kinda makes me feel not quite as helpless somehow.

Thanks for your efforts,

Barbara

capitolkat - 9-1-2006 at 10:36 AM

I'm supposed to fly in next Thursday. If it's possible and anyone needs anything I can bring on the plane let me know.

My thoughts and prayers are with you now that you are just about in the eye of the storm.

Norm

Bajagypsy - 9-1-2006 at 10:37 AM

I was just wondering, once hurricane john does it's thing, if there are certain items needed, maybe post them, and people coming down could bring items that are needed. My family and I are going back down in November, and would be more than willing to bring stuff down.

Just a suggestion.

Naomi - 9-1-2006 at 10:59 AM

As of 11:00AM PDT:

HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JOHN HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR... BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS
WOULD BRING JOHN BACK TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

JOHN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION......22.3 N...109.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

Al G - 9-1-2006 at 11:00 AM

Worth saving??

Cincodemayo - 9-1-2006 at 11:14 AM

Definitely one ominous picture. I love extreme weather but being there would certainly be a "what the heck am I doing here" moment especially when you run out of water, beer and food. Hoping for the best for all there.
I fear for all when the water comes crashing down from the mountains and hills...not to mention the wind....be safe all.

longlegsinlapaz - 9-1-2006 at 11:15 AM

NOON in La Paz
Across the inner bay from La Paz on the beach between Comitan & Centenario a very light rain with tiny widely- spaced drops has begun to fall & the wind is picking up slightly. There was some truly awesome thunder & lightening that lit up the entire sky over the bay between 1-4 AM last night! I was outside trying to capture some of it in a movie on my digital! Will worry LATER about how to convert it to still shots!

capitolkat - 9-1-2006 at 11:59 AM

Unfortuanately it looks like for the last six hours the storm center has continued north but has ceased its westward drift. The last reported longitude is 108.8W, the same it was six hours ago but latitude is now 22N versus 21.2N six hours ago.

What that means-- don't know- as the shift west could resume as the storm closes on the headlands of Cabo. Seems like its about 80 miles out now and moving about 8 mph-- but if it continues this track it will hit - not glance off the tip of the peninsula.

Mother nature has a way of making us humble. My continued prayers are with those riding out the storm.

Taco de Baja - 9-1-2006 at 12:02 PM

My concern is that the warm waters of the SOC will suck it east and right up the gulf.....Still no computer models showing that though, so they must "know" something I do not.

longlegsinlapaz - 9-1-2006 at 12:15 PM

Wind & driving rain in La Paz.....it is my personal opinion that John is going to be showing Marty how a hurricane is SUPPOSED to behave....strongly & unpredictable!!!!! This is only the beginning!!!!

Al G - 9-1-2006 at 12:17 PM

CNN just reported 1 mph below Cat 3 and slowing.
Offically It is a cat 2. It is now moving towards Del San Jose

flyfishinPam - 9-1-2006 at 12:39 PM

This one looks a lot how I remember Marty. Marty sat W of where the eye of John is now, just S of los cabos. Sat and sat then all of a sudden started to move very fast. When I went to sleep the night before Marty struck at 11pm he was still in that same position S of los cabos. By 8am the following day the schools were closed as I discovered when bringing mine to nursery school. I decided to go shopping instead and inside the ISSSTE were frantic people buying up batteries, water, food, etc. According to the radio it was already 34 Km N of La Paz at that time and moving at 24kph due North. So I rushed home and we immediately covered our exposed North walls as we were under construction then. That was the beginning, then I did somethign completely stupid and went out to town to take care of the shop. The following day seeing the damage and where we were at the times we were we could have been seriously injured or killed. Will never go out during a storm again. Very scary and Marty was a borderline cat 1-2 storm. Its eye passed about 30 miles east of Loreto before hitting the Santa Rosalia area.

Remember the storm moves counter-clockwise so you can determine how the rain and winds will affect you from your position in reference to its eye.

pacside - 9-1-2006 at 12:39 PM

Good luck and God speed fellow nomads and locals down in baja sur. I am happy I delayed my trip as it wouldn't of been fun with just me and junior...hubby couldn't go due to work. Wondering if our beachfront lot on Playa Los Cerritos will still be there. Of course this is just land and not life and limb. When interviewing architects to build our casita a local one in Todos Santos recommended building on some type of platform or piers due to water passing through during storms. The architects in Los Cabos didn't think that was necessary. I think I will listen to the local. In any event I hope everyone including the locals in flimsy houses take care and get to high ground away from the arroyos. Seeing pictures of Playa San Pedrito after that last hurricane and the havoc it created makes one respect nature and hopefully everyone has taken the necessary precautions to protect family.

JESSE - 9-1-2006 at 12:43 PM

Its going into the mar de cortez, right at us.

Best wishes

djh - 9-1-2006 at 12:50 PM

Best wishes, Nomads. I've been watching and monitoring, and saying a few prayers for you and all of our Mexican neighbors.

I feel a little guilty being here in Idaho while bully, John frightens and intimidates there. Wish I could offer some help... encouragement seems to be all I can offer right now.

Help and take care of each other in the Nomad tradition.

djh and Shing.

mike odell - 9-1-2006 at 12:54 PM

Hey Jesse,
What weather site did you just see this about entering SOC?
I havent seen a update that shows this yet. Here is La Ribera
we are currently having rain squalls and intermittent wind gusts. A new update is due out at 2 pm pacific time.
Stay Safe!

Natalie Ann - 9-1-2006 at 12:59 PM

I offer prayers, friends... all kinds of 'em. Be safe everyone.

flyfishinPam - 9-1-2006 at 01:01 PM

With Marty's eye to the east of us our North took the brunt of the winds. The N wall of the marina was destroyed and the winds were funneled through "the windows" that low spot at Puerto Escondido causing damage to over a dozen boats anchored there. Many sank or were beyond repair. The streets in Loreto turned into rivers and they were quite deep in places. since I was driving home through there were places where water went through the floor into my truck and I made sure to drive in the high places near the mission and downtown shops. Those cobblestone streets are the highest. From what I can remember the surge was 3-4 feet. The road to my house reminded me of one time were were inundated at San Javier. It was like driving through a waterfall. I gunned it and just made it home.

Al G - 9-1-2006 at 01:01 PM

Mike, CNN in motion satellite is showing a wobble and now is head alittle east toward Cabo Del San Jose. Colud go SOC or Pacific????????

[Edited on 9-1-2006 by Al G]

Naomi - 9-1-2006 at 01:03 PM

My thoughts are with all in BCS. I remember how badly La Paz was damaged during Marty. My Mom is in Los Fralies so I'm hoping it will continue east and not follow Marty's path (even though it seems she will be close to the eye of the storm regardless).

Stay safe and know that us Nomads in the states are wishing you the best!

capitolkat - 9-1-2006 at 01:04 PM

Mike odell

the weather site
www.wunderground.com
has a tropical weather link. They show John continuing true north at 108.8 longitude at between 6-8 mph. If that holds for the next few hours then its right in the mouth of the SOC and east of San Jose Del Cabo. These things can twist and turn, stop , change directions , but it looks like for over 8 hours now it has slowly churned north and stopped it's westerly drift. If it again turns west it could rake the coast as it passes over both SJDC and CSL.

This is looking very grim from my viewpoint 3000 miles away.

God bless and continue to hope for the best-- Norm

flyfishinPam - 9-1-2006 at 01:05 PM

Maybe Jesse's seeing this:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611_model...

Anyones' guess where

Sharksbaja - 9-1-2006 at 01:10 PM

This thing won't decide where to go. This latest "real time" shows it drifting east. Maybe there isn't a god after all. :no:
We'll send a panga full of prayers while we hold our breath.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/eastpac/storm/ar...



[Edited on 9-1-2006 by Sharksbaja]

JESSE - 9-1-2006 at 01:11 PM

I am actually watching this, i am not an expert but it seems Cabo is not the target anymore.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611_sat.h...


Animate the image and watch where that eye is going.

[Edited on 9-1-2006 by JESSE]

mike odell - 9-1-2006 at 01:13 PM

Thanks Al
As long as the phone lines are up, I will try to pass along whats happening here in La Ribera as it changes. We are buttoned down tight just sitting around waiting, most all here in the pueblo are boarded up, havent seen a car go by in 20 minutes! Beach in front of us is empty, fair sized waves!
For folks that dont know the area, we are about 80 miles from San Lucas on the East Cape.

Taco de Baja - 9-1-2006 at 01:14 PM

And looks at all this warm water to pull it in like a fish on a line.


Terafin Sea Surf Temps

[Edited on 9-1-2006 by Taco de Baja]

JESSE - 9-1-2006 at 01:14 PM

Saw a line of CFE trucks heading to cabo this morning, maybe they should be turning back.

Al G - 9-1-2006 at 01:15 PM

Jesse is right. CNN new update 2min ago. John has wobbled again and is now headed for DSJC .

comitan - 9-1-2006 at 01:16 PM

I think they named this Hurricane wrong it shoulda been Juanita, the latest model shows 2 of the tracks going north into the SOC.

Al G - 9-1-2006 at 01:28 PM

Comitan, your right the tracks have changed This one has 3 up the center of Baja, one up the SOC, and ONLY 1 out to the Pacific..
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611_model...

Cincodemayo - 9-1-2006 at 01:29 PM

If you watch the animated storm tracker notice the most western bands thrown off and just explode into giant cloud masses...sure looks to me a direct hit on San Jose del Cabo...but it's slowed and who knows for sure:no:

Tomas Tierra - 9-1-2006 at 01:32 PM

Fox news just reported that it may go straight up the Baja peninsula, with rain in L.A. in 3-4 days....I guess its "solo Dios sabes" but that would seem to bethe least desireable track for all of the Baja...

:?::?:

Naomi - 9-1-2006 at 01:38 PM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...EYE OF JOHN A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. THESE WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE AND RADAR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR LATITUDE 22.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE JOHN WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...22.8 N...109.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:23 PM

forecasted 3-day line as of 2pm:

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:24 PM

through 12:30pm (Pacific Time)

Cincodemayo - 9-1-2006 at 02:31 PM

Dang...if it follows that path the lower third of Baja will get trashed. I just hope the locals outside of news alerts will get notification all the way to Mag Bay. Surface water temps in the bay are in the 80's and could gain strength after getting over water again. Time will tell but good thoughts be with all the folks in John's path....locals and tourists alike.

David K - 9-1-2006 at 02:36 PM

Great link Soulpatch...

Hang on La Paz Nomads!

Shari (Bahia Asuncion): You're going to get wet!

[Edited on 9-1-2006 by David K]

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:37 PM

A man walks under a tri-hull sailboat leaning halfway off its trailer in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Friday, Sept. 1, 2006, as Hurricane John approaches the area. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

[Edited on 9-1-2006 by BajaNews]

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:40 PM

A man walks on a Los Cabos beach in Mexico's state of Baja California as Hurricane John approaches the area September 1, 2006. (Daniel Aguilar/Reuters)

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:43 PM

Roberto Alvarez, of Cabo San Lucas, surfs in front of the city's famous rock arch in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Friday, Sept. 1, 2006, as Hurricane John nears. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:44 PM

Tourists wait for a flight out of Los Cabos airport in Mexico as Hurricane John approaches the area, August 31, 2006. (Daniel Aguilar/Reuters)

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:47 PM

US tourists wait in a shelter for Hurricane John to hit the shores in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Residents and thousands of tourists in Mexico's Baja California braced for the fury of Hurricane John, which barreled toward the exclusive resort of Cabo San Lucas at the southern tip of the peninsula.(AFP/Luis Acosta)

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:48 PM

A fisherman prays while holding a candle at the beach while waiting for Hurricane John to hit the coastline in Baja California, Mexico. With a stronger and meaner Hurricane John threatening to make landfall, three towns in Mexico's Baja California peninsula have been placed under a state of emergency, and 15,000 people have been evacuated to safety. (AFP/Luis Acosta)

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:50 PM

A Mexican emergency official tries to convince a couple to abandon their makeshift home along the banks of a river in a poor community on the outskirts of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2006, as Hurricane John nears. Police and military officials fanned out throughout the high risk, mostly poor communities to plead for residents to move to shelters on higher ground as the area awaits the arrival of Hurricane John. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

BajaNews - 9-1-2006 at 02:52 PM

Two children dry off after a bath in front of their makeshift home along the banks of a river in a poor community on the outskirts of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2006, while a Mexican Civil Protection official, left, walks past. Police and military officials fanned out throughout the high risk, mostly poor communities to plead for residents to move to shelters on higher ground as the area awaits the arrival of Hurricane John. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

longlegsinlapaz - 9-1-2006 at 03:04 PM

David K, part of my final preparations this morning were to dress for the day in my swimsuit & shorts! Has come in handy the many times I've been called to the fence by my neighbors...last request was for a small bird cage so they could take a pigeon with a broken wing inside.

Lencho, nice to know that I was sharing that awesome display with someone!

Sad to say, but I agreed with Jesse before he stated it, I too believe John's coming up the SOC, but even if we're wrong....from the satellite pics & previous experience from Juliet to present, I think the entire southern portion of the Baja, both sides are in for a really wild ride before this is over. I personally don't have shutters or plywood & have a MAJOR amount of glass....I leave all my sliders & windows open 1/4" to help reduce the wind pressure on all the glass. Really reduces the visible flex in the glass & I figure it's easier mopping up some water than it is cleaning up broken glass & water! I also tape windows in hope that if there is breakage, it will remain a little more contained. Also blocked my big garage door 1/2" off the floor to relieve wind presure on that bayside large expanse.

Al G - 9-1-2006 at 03:05 PM

That is so sad. those two little ones are at so much risk. We can only hope their parants listen.


This shows the big wobble andI don't see anyway that it will not go up the SOC.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ep200611.asp#a_topad

bajablue - 9-1-2006 at 03:10 PM

Update as of 4pm Friday, local Cabo time from a buddy of mine who lives in downtown Cabo...
Still just rain and light wind. As I write the wind has started to howl a bit. Streets are pretending to be little rivers but looking more like lakes. Nick San was open this afternoon and so was the Giggling Marlin. Looks like the eye is headed to the northeast toward San Jose so we may be spared the highest winds. Should last through the better part of the night as the storm has slowed down a bit. Checked on the house with Fern about an hour ago and all is well. The next 5 hours will tell the story though. I'll try to write again before the power undoubtedly goes out.

capt. mike - 9-1-2006 at 03:22 PM

those pictures of los ninos are heart breaking. guess our clinic trip to lopez mateos next weekend may be off cause that runway gets inundated when the chubasco rains hit. we lost 5 clinics this year thx to the cannery strike's closing of the runway, then we saw like 5oo people in a weekend cause so mANY were hurtin from lack of visits.............this is going to be a rough fall seASON for many.

wONDER IF THE AVERAGE mex national gives 2 hoots about "global warming" when we have up close and personal REAL WX!!!!

Al "Bore", you are a pin head.

Wunderblog

Hook - 9-1-2006 at 03:25 PM

One of the weather underground's meteorologists is predicting that the East Cape will suffer the most damage from the eye wall.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?en...

comitan - 9-1-2006 at 03:42 PM

Hook

You better reread that blog, I read that it will miss Cabo and San Jose by his prediction. Satellite imagery now shows it basically past Cabo more even W/San Jose and not going in yet, my estimate would be landfall at frailles.

of John's current track suggest it will move up the relatively sparsely populated east side of the Baja Peninsula, sparing the resort towns of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo the worst of the eyewall's winds.


[Edited on 9-1-2006 by comitan]

Al G - 9-1-2006 at 03:42 PM

CNN just showed another wobble and the eye now appears to be skirting SJDC I know nothing about hurricanes so this is only my opinion, but the eye is now farther east.
There is a big yellow/ red thingy over La Paz now.

Hook - 9-1-2006 at 03:46 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by comitan
Hook

You better reread that blog, I read that it will miss Cabo and San Jose by his prediction. Satellite imagery now shows it basically past Cabo more even W/San Jose and not going in yet, my estimate would be landfall at frailles.


I read it perfectly. He said it would miss those areas but the vicious eye wall would likely cause damage on the east side of the peninsula. That's the East Cape. Look where the shear of the eyewall is approaching the coast.

[Edited on 9-1-2006 by Hook]

comitan - 9-1-2006 at 03:49 PM

Al

That yellow you see is rain, cool plant loving rain.

Hook It says sparing Cabo & SJ. the way I read it.

oxxo - 9-1-2006 at 03:49 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by capt. mike

wONDER IF THE AVERAGE mex national gives 2 hoots about "global warming" when we have up close and personal REAL WX!!!!

Al "Bore", you are a pin head.


Global Warming results in more frequent and more intense hurricanes. You didn't have to see An Inconvenient Truth to know that. I think the average Mexican does care about the amount of hydrocarbons released in the USA when they have to deal with a hurricane like John.

But let's concentrate this thread on getting our friends in Baja Sur through this disaster rather than inane political statements.

Stay safe and stay well Baja Sur buddies.

David K - 9-1-2006 at 03:55 PM

Uh oh... Los Frailes, El Jefe, Mr. Chuck hang on!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/sloop-vis.html

Movie of hurricane

oxxo said:
"I think the average Mexican does care about the amount of hydrocarbons released in the USA when they have to deal with a hurricane like John.

But let's concentrate this thread on getting our friends in Baja Sur through this disaster rather than inane political statements."

I am wondering: How come hydrocarbons released by Russia, China, Bulgaria, etc. don't matter?

Because they don't pollute as much as the U.S., you say?They don't feed most of the world, either!



[Edited on 9-1-2006 by David K]

Hook - 9-1-2006 at 03:57 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by comitan
Al

That yellow you see is rain, cool plant loving rain.

Hook It says sparing Cabo & SJ. the way I read it.


The East Cape is NOT Cabo and SJ.

Actually, we are agreeing, just not on the definition of East Cape.

comitan - 9-1-2006 at 03:57 PM

Hook

Sorry I misread your post.

Bill Collector - 9-1-2006 at 04:05 PM

we live in Buena Vista which is North of San Jose. We've had rain all day long. The winds are getting stronger, the sea is very ugly. Since we live right on the water we're very concerned. We are boarded up tight, on the Sea side. Now it's just wait and see what Mother Nature has in store for us. It might come across very close to us here in the buena Vista/Los Barriles area. It's not a pleasant time right now for any of us. The good thing if there is a good thing is all the great people out there are saying those prayers and sending alll those good thoughts our way.. we know everyone is with us on this one. So thanks for all the good thoughts keep them up we're going to need them over the next few hours. It's 5:00 PM now so we have our fingers crossed it gets over before it's dark.

David K - 9-1-2006 at 04:15 PM

Dear Bill Collector... keep posting as long as possible... best of luck to you!!!

oldjack - 9-1-2006 at 04:17 PM

Would one of you brave souls run over to the Buenas Aires RV park.. space #12 and tie an anchor to my trailer and palapa... I have been at the Las Vegas airport for 36 hours trying to get down... if you see any of my stuff blowing by....well.....

Skeet/Loreto - 9-1-2006 at 04:19 PM

May God Protect You All!!
I am here at my Computer reliving Hurricane Lisa {1976} as I sat in a Motorhome in Loreto .

Please remember my Amigos the Aftermath of the Raging Waters can be as Dangerous as the Wind!!!

We, here in the States need to begin to think "How can we Help our Amigos in Baja??

Many Mexicano People will be in Need as well
This storm is very much like Lisa 30 years ago soexpect the worse, No Roads open for Days.

I have a Truck and 18 Ft. Trailer That I can load with Supplies and try to get across the Ferry at Guyamas or Topolobompo La Paz if it will be allowed.
When the Water Hits Constitution, then the Mountains above Loreto, Mulege, Sta Rosialla, Hwy 1 will be closed for weeks, as well as to the South.

Hang on Jesse; Have you checked on Lera?

Skeet

longlegsinlapaz - 9-1-2006 at 04:21 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Hook
One of the weather underground's meteorologists is predicting that the East Cape will suffer the most damage from the eye wall.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?en...


I'm confused.....this guy repeatedly refers to John as a SMALL hurricane. From the sat pics I've been watching for the past few days, it looks friggin HUGE to me. It appears to be spanninng an area of at least 8-10 times the width of the peninsula. Is he only referring to the eye?? And the peripheral damage potential adjacent to the eye?
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