Tropical Storm Warning for BCS for Hurricane Norbert

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...I kinda like the grey line that veers off to the left




[Edited on 9-5-2014 by micah202]

Norbert Los Cabos-6am

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...well,,a certain amount of rain is good,,,I hope that's all that y'all see as Norbert advances and follows forecast of easing-off in strength over the next 2-3 days.I haven't been able to find much specific information about rain forecasts--I guess these things are too variable to predict who gets what--I suspect the rains are particularly sensitive to hope/prayer influences,,,,and definitely --don't-- tempt fate by hanging any laundry today--too easy for the wind/moisture of wet laundry to draw the flow eastward
... rain warnings have been given as 'locally heavy at times' right through the SW states.'

...Ascunsion---I'm concerned about a couple of things---the forecast has become 'steady' in saying there's a reasonable likelihood of 40-50mph winds,,but be careful to note that the full-moon tides are with us--so there could be some extra intensity if wind ,waves,and high tide combine.....and also...''only a slight deviation to the right of the track would
bring hurricane-force winds to the coast'' in your area as the NHC warns....so it's probably good to keep all household fans pointed to the west still

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[Edited on 9-5-2014 by micah202]

wind just picked up again 26mph gust and some rain just starting. Need to closes some windows

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...here's an amazing graphic...
.....worth a copy/paste if my attempt to linky doesn't work

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orth...


[img]http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-111.45,26.17,2035[/img]

[/url]http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-111.45,26.17,2035[/url]





[Edited on 9-5-2014 by micah202]

you havent seen how many friggin windows we have!!!
As usual, the locals and me...are watching things carefully but mostly in denial because hurricanes sooooo rarely get here. ...so we are pretty complacent. I took the tent down, gathered up things that will fly away...no board up though...might put some masking tape on them.

We usually get around 35-40 knots of wind, big swell and some rain so the flooding will be an issue at high tide as damage was done in last week's storm.

A Few Norbert Photos

These were the waves generated by Norbert before the wind hit.







This was taken this morning at the peak intensity. We never saw winds higher than 30-35 mph and we've only received .07 inches of rain today. We currently have gusts to about 20 with 83º and the barometer has risen to 29.70.






[Edited on 9-6-2014 by BajaNomad]

Pics again Shari.......... Por Favor Merenge

...let's keep it that way!

Quote:

Originally posted by micah202 Quote: Originally posted by Mulegena Mulege correction: that rain of an hour ago has stopped... ...let's keep it that way!

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Originally posted by Mulegena Quote: Originally posted by micah202 Quote: Originally posted by Mulegena Mulege correction: that rain of an hour ago has stopped... ...let's keep it that way! Nope. It's still raining - enough to make the river road a pig's muddy delight but not enough to make the roads hazardous with falling rock or mudslides yet, except perhaps to pigs.

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....I'm happy if the piggies** remain happy!


......**....and the sheoats

just when we thought things were winding down, heaviest rain yet at 2:30 pm here at La Aguja - wind still very strong - we're ready for this to be over!

Have to use two posts for photos - here is a pre-Norbert shot at Rancho la Aguja . .

3:50pm torrential rain for last hour and internet was in and out.

Here is Norbert taken earlier - change from tranquil scene above.

Stay safe everyone. Awesome photos all!

Some advice" Keep them out of your skivvies."

I dont know how they did it but I got bit near my armpit and thigh as well as feet and ankles...sheesh. Here is a before photo for ya...we just got some sand back at the beach outside our kitchen door...nice lookin clouds and a few big sets coming in now...could rain at any time with the cells all around.

thanks so much for the reporting...what San Juanico gets we will prolly get!!!



I am sooooooo not liking this satellite image!




[Edited on 9-5-2014 by shari]

Quote:

Originally posted by micah202 . ...here's an amazing graphic... .....worth a copy/paste if my attempt to linky doesn't work http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orth... [img]http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-111.45,26.17,2035[/img] [/url]http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-111.45,26.17,2035[/url] [Edited on 9-5-2014 by micah202]

It just occurred to me that I should thank all you who have kept us informed about this storm.....and.....what a dilemma it presents to us all.....so much beauty.....so much hazard.....batten down your personal hatches and keep a good photo log of this beautiful hazard......stay safe, one an all.

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Puerto San Carlos, Magdalena Bay

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Yes I better stock up on the Pepto-Bismol, too!

thank you for your concern but we are OK for tonight unless Norbert cranks up tonight. Here is what it was like a couple hours ago at the beach...lots of lookey loos, then the wind came up to about 20 knots and we are out at the point now going to get some sleep to prepare for tomorrow.







I hope everyone is Ok on the gulf side and hope Mula is on high ground..huricane pyjama party time...night all...hasta manana!

good morning all...I am surprised there are no reports this morning yet...perhaps the internet is down further south? or everyone is still asleep...NOT! Here at the Inn refuge, we passed a relatively peaceful albeit windy night but did sleep. Here is the 2:am discussion that tells me Norbert cranked up a bit more...silly hurricane. I look forward to the 8:00 report. the military are doing rounds and we are off to check out the village before things get crazy here...hoping everyone is OK but am a bit worried about our southern amigos.



HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

Norbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z. Since then, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the eye becoming less distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming asymmetric. Satellite intensity estimates at 06Z were 115 kt from TAFB and 102 kt from SAB, while the CIMMS ADT estimates peaked at 110 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt as a compromise between these estimates and the decay of the cloud pattern since 06Z.

The initial motion is now 315/7. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Norbert will be steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States through 48 hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a mid-latitude trough moves into the U.S. West Coast, which should result in a weakening of the steering currents. The track guidance has come into better agreement that Norbert should move northeastward or eastward after 72 hours, with several of the models showing the remnants making landfall over the northern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The new forecast track reflects this change in the guidance by showing an northeastward and eastward drift after 72 hours. The new forecast track is a little to the right of the center of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, and after that it is slower than the consensus model TVCE.

The forecast track takes Norbert over steadily decreasing sea surface temperatures. The cyclone should thus weaken through the forecast period. Despite the higher initial intensity compared to 6 hours ago, the guidance is in good agreement that Norbert should decay into a remnant low in about 3 days. The new intensity forecast is increased from that of the previous forecast through 36 hours, and then is similar to the previous forecast. The new forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details.