BajaNomad - HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAJA - ODILE - AFTERMATH

HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAJA - ODILE - AFTERMATH

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BajaGringo - 9-13-2014 at 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by pauldavidmena
@micah202 - where did you get that rain chart? that's a nice, graphical way to represent some very specific data.

WeatherUnderground shows Odile becoming Category 3 by 2PM on Sunday. Cuídate, amigos.

Go to:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Click on the map for "North Pacific" - "California to Mexico" and the click on the tab that says "Visibility & Precipitation"...

rts551 - 9-13-2014 at 03:57 PM

where is BSC?

msteve1014 - 9-13-2014 at 04:00 PM

Before. Southern. California.

bajajudy - 9-13-2014 at 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by rts551
where is BSC?

thanks
I changed it.

bajabuddha - 9-13-2014 at 05:01 PM

Jake, we get it... you don't like Canadians. Nice start for your 4th post, idjit.

And Judy, with all due respect, ODILE'S FOR REAL is as real as I can be; glad you started a 'serious' thread. But Yogi is still right, "IT AIN'T OVER 'TILL IT'S OVER". All hurricanes are serious. Odile's gonna be more so if the 94L storm comes over the mountains from the east and joins in; so tell your coconut trees to hang on to their nuts. But change my thread (after I've changed it 3 times already!)? Get serious yourself, gal. No offense meant. I am serious when I say, I hope you're ok, and all fares well. Fair enough?
bb

micah202 - 9-13-2014 at 05:31 PM

Quote:

...yah ,, http://passageweather.com/# is quite useful ,,seems remarkably accurate so far,,,has animated projections up to a week,,,,and yes,it shows some east-bend and intensifying since this morning.......did someone stop spinning!!?? :?:

Paula - 9-13-2014 at 08:15 PM

Dear Bajabuddha,

After reading a number of your posts and seeing your mood as expressed in your avatar box, not to mention your tagline I wonder if you gave serious thought to your Nomad name. You seem like an okay guy maybe, but not exactly Buddha-like. Maybe Bajapedofeliz would be a better name for you? Or maybe there is something else more suited to your personality? Just a thought, no malice intended :saint:

bajajudy - 9-13-2014 at 08:17 PM

We are now in a hurricane WARNING
Batten down the hatches and grab your burros.

David K - 9-13-2014 at 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BajaGringo

Quote:

Go to:

http://www.passageweather.com/

Click on the map for "North Pacific" - "California to Mexico" and the click on the tab that says "Visibility & Precipitation"...

Here are some of the maps from that site at 8:20 pm PDT SAT.

Katiejay99 - 9-13-2014 at 08:23 PM

I just read the latest update. Oh my!! We're in for a very bumpy ride. This is NOT going to be fun at all!

Be safe everyone.

Pappy Jon - 9-13-2014 at 08:24 PM

"... and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the southern end of the Baja California peninsula. If Odile strikes Baja California as a major hurricane, it will be only the fourth time since since 1967 that such a hurricane has hit the peninsula."

Oh my. Batten down the hatches folks.

BajaGringo - 9-13-2014 at 08:32 PM

Take care amigos. We'll be praying...

Paula - 9-13-2014 at 08:50 PM

Apologies for my flippant and personal post above, my evil twin won't let me delete it though...

But really, this storm is huge and dangerous, and I think a more current warning thread would be a good thing, as this has been up for days and looses impact.

Take care, stay safe, hoping for the best for everyone.

Zola - 9-13-2014 at 08:59 PM

Now is the time to take precautions such as boarding up windows, etc. Everyone take care and do what you must. It is better to take precautions that prove to have been unnecessary than not to do so and find after it is too late that damaging winds or floods are on hand. BE SAFE. We will all laugh in relief after it is over. With luck and fair winds, it will end up passing harmlessly well out to sea!

Everyone needs to spin much better

grizzlyfsh95 - 9-13-2014 at 09:48 PM

This one is going to kick some burro and be very destructive. Good luck to all.

bajajudy - 9-13-2014 at 09:51 PM

Latest from Baja insider
Odile is a significantly larger hurricane than was last week's Norbert at this time.
At 09PM MDT: Hurricane Odile is located near 17.9N 106.5W and is moving 335° at 10kt. Central barometric pressure is 962Mb and winds are 95kts with gusts to 115kts, making Odile just short of Major Hurricane Category 3 intensity. Hurricane force winds extend out 20 to 40 miles, and fifty knot winds extend 50 to 60 miles and tropical storm force winds extend out 160 miles on the all but the northwest side of the storm where they extend out 100 miles. 12ft seas extend out as much as 270 miles.
Hurricane Odile is forecast to increase in forward speed and develop further in intensity through the evening, but forecasts continue to predict that this system will pass just to the west of Cabo San Lucas. Storm tracks have moved about 100 miles closer to the peninsula than forecasts from earlier this afternoon.
Odile is currently forecast to be about 74 miles west-northwest of Cabo San Lucas or about 50 miles west-southwest of Todos Santos as a Category 3 Hurricane Monday at 6AM.

This is not drama...this is time for all nomads living in BCS to get ready

100mph winds will have your hoses dancing the cobra dance

Thanks Baja Insider

bajajudy - 9-13-2014 at 10:20 PM

Saturday, September 13, 2014 9:50 PM MDT This evening Tropical Watch we continue to follow recently upgraded Hurricane Odile, now a Category 2 Hurricane and just short of Category 3 intensity. Hurricane Odile is forecast to become a Major Hurricane (Category 3 or greater) in the next 12 hrs as it moves toward the Baja peninsula at 10kts. The most recent storm track places the system closer to Cabo San Lucas, Todos Santos and very close to a landfall near Magdalena Bay/Lopez Mateo. This system is suppose to follow a very similar evolution to that of last week's Hurricane Norbert, but we ask our readers not to base the pending effects of inbound Odile on the last hurricane. Odile is forecast to be a larger storm, whether or not it will be more powerful on arrival is still yet to be ascertained. But rain, winds a flooding are possible further inland, regardless of the final course of this storm.
Major Hurricane landfall are rare, only one has been recorded since 1948. NHC track forecasts have become very accurate over the last 5 years, but intensity forecasts still are troublesome for the NHC and with good luck this system will not reach us with the projected Major Hurricane intensity. However, should this system pass as close to the peninsula as projected or even make a landfall as a Major Hurricane it is a totally different game. Those who have weathered the Baja storms of the recent lifetime have not experienced anything like a Major and hurricane warnings should be heeded and preparations taken. Hotels and shelters are designed to withstand the forces of a Category 3 storm, seek appropriate shelter and remain indoors. Do not cross flooded roadways or arroyos, and stay off the beaches are rouge waves can suddenly reach much further up the beaches. Drowning is the leading cause of death in a tropical cyclone and I have witnessed a Major Hurricanes make airborne projectiles of items as large as a wheelbarrow.
We encourage all of our readers in the Baja California Sur region to remain alert to the progress of Hurricane Odile, as the course may yet change even further inland. Complete your storm preparations early Sunday and be safe.
Further down south we also have Tropical Depression 16E, which has been meandering about since mid week. This system is not forecast to do much of anything and at this time its development is being stymied by the greater Odile. It may send a remnant low northward into the Sea of Cortez mid to late week, providing additional rain to the eastern side of the peninsula.
Even further south we have yet another region of prospective development of the coast of Guatemala. This is given a low chance of development in the next 24hrs but a high chance as it move to the northwest along the southern coast of Mexico during the week ahead.
All this tropical activity come at the peak of the Baja Hurricane Season, when environmental conditions are correct for storms to come in our directions. The frequency of these storms is caused by the conjunction of seasonal patterns along with the arrival of an increased convection derived from the Madden Julian oscillation, which comes east from the Indian Ocean to meet up with the tropical waves generated in the Sahara Desert. So we need to remain on alert through the middle of next month... yet.
A note to our readers: Hurricane Information releases are at 9AM/PM and 3AM/PM MDT. These are complete updates with new positions and forecast tracks along with watch and warning updates. Interim releases at 6AM/PM and 12 AM/PM only update position and watches and warnings and track forecasts are a re-hash of previous releases and are only issued when there are active watches or warnings. We update our information as soon as possible, we normally receive the news a few minutes before the NHC website release and endeavor to post the information and our graphics found only here on the Insider just as quickly as possible. Since we are the only online weather source actually reporting from La Paz and Cabo San Lucas we are also subject to internet outages caused by inclement weather

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by bajajudy]

Jonno_aus - 9-13-2014 at 11:34 PM

Well the last one turned out to be a boring old dud, so hopefully this one is more fun. Hope everyone has their hurricane party plans organised? I'm stuck in La Paz and can't make it to Todos with friends to have one and watch the hurricane cruise past.

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by Jonno_aus]

bajabuddha - 9-14-2014 at 01:43 AM

As of 02:30 MDT Odile has intensified, and is tracking a more northern course. It will impact almost all of Baja. It is recommended full precautions taken.

It is serious.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/H...

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/H...

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by bajabuddha]

bajabuddha - 9-14-2014 at 04:18 AM

05:00 am MDT Odile has upgraded to CAT 4, the entire South Cape is going to take the brunt.

All of Baja is going to be majorly affected. Mis compañeros en Mulege, con quidado.

By Friday heavy flooding in the desert southwest of the U.S. will also be a repeat of Norbert.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/H...

NOAA update

Whale-ista - 9-14-2014 at 05:08 AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/140858....

Be safe. Sounds bad.

WTPZ35 KNHC 141135
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...CATEGORY 4 ODILE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
MULEGE.
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO
SANTA ROSALIA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE THE HURRICANE NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

Katiejay99 - 9-14-2014 at 05:14 AM

Nervous doesn't even begin to say how I feel right now.
This is going to be horrendous all up and down the Baja.
Good luck everyone.

windgrrl - 9-14-2014 at 06:09 AM

May you all be safe.

Pappy Jon - 9-14-2014 at 06:19 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajabuddhaBy Friday heavy flooding in the desert southwest of the U.S. will also be a repeat of Norbert.

Never saw Norbert in central NM (ABQ). We can only hope Odile spews something our way.

Good luck to those in the south cape.

woody with a view - 9-14-2014 at 06:19 AM

it seems like the just keep coming. stay safe out there!

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height

Mulegena - 9-14-2014 at 06:58 AM

8 a.m. Sunday, Mulege

It's clear skies and without wind right now. Not too hot nor humid. Amazing to know there is a major hurricane just below.

Stay well, southern friends. Be prepared and if you're not - forget about it and make do as you are. Get indoors and stay there. The operative now is safety!

Keep up informed as you can.

May all being be safe from harm. ~ Mulegena

bajabuddha - 9-14-2014 at 07:02 AM

Mulegena, current predictions say although the eye will be west, you'll get substantial rainfall in the upper basin; i'd get the word out to the Estero folks pronto; going to be a test of the drainage work for certain. Be well.

BajaNomad - 9-14-2014 at 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajabuddha
Mulegena, current predictions say although the eye will be west...

Predictions of storm intensity are more reliable than storm direction. If the storm heads anywhere near Land's End, there is a real possibility it could head up the SOC. This is what happened with Hurricane John in 2006.

hurrjohn2006.jpg - 37kB

BajaNomad - 9-14-2014 at 07:38 AM

Double trouble.... ugh.

odile-sun-738a.jpg - 50kB

woody with a view - 9-14-2014 at 07:42 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
it seems like the just keep coming. stay safe out there!

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height

CAT 4 now! yeeek.... ^watch the model til the end^ another one gonna come knocking.

Katiejay99 - 9-14-2014 at 07:54 AM

I just came back from town and I just can't believe it but all of the locals are saying that the "noticias" this morning are saying that there will be lots of rain and hardly any wind with the storm. Nobody is preparing here! I told the lady at the grocery store to please let the people know that there is going to be LOTS of wind with this!

bajajudy - 9-14-2014 at 08:38 AM

We just ran into some folks at the beach who thought it was going to rain and that was it.
Frankly, I am scared
We are rushing to finish what we started for Norbert.
Pray for us

ODILE

blackwolfmt - 9-14-2014 at 08:47 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.htmlODILE

Looks like you folks are in for a whopper hope people are getin prepared may the force be with you

shari - 9-14-2014 at 09:00 AM

This is always a problem that people just dont think a major hurricane will hit. I am VERY worried about this storm and hope you all take every precaution. I also urge Doug to allow a separate thread for local on the scene updates that are soooo important for us who live here. Please dont underestimate mother nature!

wiltonh - 9-14-2014 at 09:10 AM

Here is what happened in 1976 when La Paz took a direct hit. 3800 died from flooding.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbCk1_ee9AQ

Jonno_aus - 9-14-2014 at 09:12 AM

If you prepare, it'll be fine. I'm bummed I can't be on th pacific side to experience it. La paz expecting 100-110 km/h winds so better then nothing.

Prepare, then sit with some wine or Cerveza and enjoy. :yes:

Zola - 9-14-2014 at 09:21 AM

http://eebmike.com/ = probable path of Odile

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH
WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

Zola - 9-14-2014 at 09:24 AM

If you can, batten down the hatches and evacuate to a safe place. If you cannot evacuate, batten down the hatches. With luck, this one will stay out at sea and bring only massive downpours and tropical force winds. The storm is very large, and tropical force winds extend for 185 miles in every direction except the northwest. This is a category 4 hurricane. I do not mean to sound alarmist, and let's hope for the best, but now is the time to rush all of your preparations to conclusion, and for a category 3 or higher you evacuate if you can.

bajalinda - 9-14-2014 at 09:33 AM

what a difference an overnight makes - yesterday at this time were thinking that Odile would be somewhat of a non-event. HA! not so!

we are certainly expecting the power to go out and not stay on as it did during Norbert. will post reports as I am able to - stay safe everyone.

now back to storm prep.....

bajabuddha - 9-14-2014 at 09:48 AM

For those in harm's way, reminder: flying debris is a major cause of injury. Think ahead for a good place of cover and shelter; glass is the first to go, and there'll be plenty of cheap tin roofs flying around too, so pick a leeward wall to hunker behind. Also as the storm passes, wind directions will change, so please, get prepared; rain will be sideways and coming in under doors, between walls and roofs, so stuff will get wet; but stuff is just stuff. Think ahead, there's a lot of good folk rooting for you.

Those who think they 'wish they were there' to enjoy the party have obviously never experienced major hurricane or tornado events; i'd be running like hell right now.

Storm will hit about midnight at Cabo, early Tuesday at Loreto/Mulege. So far will keep hurricane intensity all the way to Guerrero. And on a brighter note, there's another one forming in Tuanepec as we speak, potential for yet another in a week or so..... fun in Paradise.

woody with a view - 9-14-2014 at 10:39 AM

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-stor...

DENNIS - 9-14-2014 at 11:12 AM

An esteemed Nomad, for reasons of his own, sent this to me to be passed along here.
---------------------------

"Hurricane Odile is now a major hurricane in the eastern Pacific, as it has benefited from low wind shear and warm water.

The government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula, including Cabo San Lucas. Hurricane watches were posted a bit farther up the west and east coasts of the Baja peninsula.

Odile has a large wind field, with tropical storm-force winds extending out almost 200 miles from the center. Odile will track toward the northwest, and parallel the southern and central Baja peninsula Pacific coast from Sunday night through Tuesday with damaging hurricane-force winds.

(FORECAST: Cabo San Lucas)

Rainfall from 5-10 inches with isolated amounts to 15 inches is also expected not only in the southern Baja peninsula, but also in parts of southwest Mexico on the east side of Odile's circulation. Flash flooding and mudslides are a good bet in areas of heaviest rainfall."

DENNIS - 9-14-2014 at 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajabuddha
For those in harm's way, reminder: flying debris is a major cause of injury.

Are you talking about Raiders games?

BillP - 9-14-2014 at 11:17 AM

Wind is picking up CSL live video

Jonno_aus - 9-14-2014 at 11:23 AM

[QUOTE]Those who think they 'wish they were there' to enjoy the party have obviously never experienced major hurricane or tornado events; i'd be running like hell right now. [/QUOTE]

And where are you going to run too? The States?

I lived in a major cyclone prone area in Australia. I know what they do. They measure the rainfall in feet annually. Makes the 'rain' here seem like a spray bottle.
I've seen a caravan lifted in the air and thrown 100 yards before being smashed to pulp. And that was only in a regular storm.

Prepare, stay calm and you're fine.

bajajudy - 9-14-2014 at 11:36 AM

Quick report
Winds picking up(10-12)
Skies cloudy
Drizzle of rain
Feels like it is close
We are real close to be ready
Only have 2 more water hoses to coil and stow
Dark to the southeast....

windgrrl - 9-14-2014 at 11:38 AM

Hang on tight. Know that we are watching with you.

DENNIS - 9-14-2014 at 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by windgrrl
Hang on tight. Know that we are watching with you.

This is right down your alley. Why aren't you out there?

Mulegena - 9-14-2014 at 11:47 AM

Just got back from town. People in the Oasis are evacuating.

Townfolk don't seem too concerned at this point which is frustrating to me as they're most vulnerable. Townspeople are also the most resilient and resourceful people I've ever met, too, and take care of one another, pick up, dry off and get on with the business of living after a hurricane and the flooding it brings to the river valley.

I stopped two French bicyclists heading south across the highway bridge, explained they were riding into a hurricane and tried to get them to stay in town above the flood zone. They insisted they could go 70 miles today, and wanted to make it to La Paz by Tuesday... arggh!... so I gave them directions to Mark and Olivia's Playa Buena Ventura as their stop; it's about 30 miles down the bay. I do hope they stop there and wait out the storm. My thoughts are with them.

My house is well above the flood zone but is subject to wind damage, sooo wish me luck, kiddos!

windgrrl - 9-14-2014 at 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by windgrrl
Hang on tight. Know that we are watching with you.

This is right down your alley. Why aren't you out there?

'Cause I'm north of 50. Seriously, the fun factor goes way down when the words in the forecast include, "life threatening".

Pescador - 9-14-2014 at 11:51 AM

Shari, just got off of the phone with Bettina and her mother, They have opted to weather the storm out in Asuncion. You might keep an eye opened in their direction if it goes to hell, which it looks like it might. We tried to get them to come over to San Bruno, but they did not think they could pack up soon enough. Thanks

mtgoat666 - 9-14-2014 at 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jonno_aus
And where are you going to run too? The States?

well, safest to get out of the high wind areas. hurricane force winds kill people with flying debris. and those baja houses are mostly incapable of withstanding high winds. and when the building materials fly at 100+ mph, any human hit by a 100+ mph projectile is in a world of hurt

desertcpl - 9-14-2014 at 12:03 PM

Shari

looks like Asuncion, is in the direct path

I would think you would need to leave now if your going to make it

MitchMan - 9-14-2014 at 12:06 PM

By looking at the path of the latest 5 hour moving satellite view, looks like it may reach La Paz between 5am to 10am tomorrow, Monday. Looks like the circle of the hurricane has about a 150 mile diameter (just guessing) and that the northern outer circle (circumference) will reach La Paz at about 10pm tonight.

A good note is that it appears that, as the hurricane approaches the Baja land mass, the clouds seem to dissipate somewhat as the hurricane travels northward over said Baja land mass.

Anybody know the estimated diameter of the hurricane force winds around the eye? Anybody know the speed of travel of this hurricane's northward direction?

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by MitchMan]

Webcams

tigerdog - 9-14-2014 at 12:11 PM

Here are some webcams so we can all see what's happening in Cabo, part of the Corridor, Puerto Los Cabos and Todos Santos --- at least for a while...

http://www.cabosanlucas.net/interactive/webcam/ also

http://www.loscabosguide.com/cabosanlucas/webcams.htm and

http://www.meteosurfcanarias.com/webcams/new/beach-cams-prov...

Surf's up! She's coming...

blackwolfmt - 9-14-2014 at 12:46 PM

Here is a great realtime sat view,go to the right side where it says animated GIF and see whats coming you way Good luck guys

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15E/15E_floater.htm...

nice view...

Whale-ista - 9-14-2014 at 12:47 PM

<edit 4> 6 PM San Diego time: offline, no image showing...

<edit 3> 1:30 San Diego time: Looking brighter, less wind now. People out on balconies checking out the view.

<edit 2> Now showing rain drops on lens, view of the cape across the bay now obscured by clouds/rain... This is moving like a freight train and heading straight into baja...I have goosebumps sitting here in 80 degree weather in San Diego watching this in real time...

<edit 1> Wow, it's gotten noticeably worse in just a few minutes... still showing 17 MPG on the screen, but I'm kind of skeptical- no telling where the wind gauge is located.

Whew.... stay safe people.

<original> thank you for link. winds at 17 MPH acc to website now (12:45 in San Diego), will be interesting to see how this changes in coming hours, how long power/video stays active.

Quote:

Originally posted by woody with a view
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-stor...

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by Whale-ista]

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by Whale-ista]

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by Whale-ista]

[Edited on 9-15-2014 by Whale-ista]

micah202 - 9-14-2014 at 12:55 PM

...''one for the record books''((???))...Posted Today, 12:14 PM
..this is sounding ominous indeed--may all be well!

If people have not evacuated Cabo San Lucas yet they don't have a lot of time as if the airport has not yet closed it will be soon. Unless we get a significant wobble to the left Cabo is in for an absolute ass kicking as Category 4 hurricane Odile may indeed achieve Category 5 status just prior to landfall around 6:20PM tonight (Could be slightly earlier). If boat owners have not moved their boats by now, I wouldn't recommend going to sea as things are going to get seriously dangerous over the next few hours. The diameter of the storm is not enormous so it may be tolerable one minute and be horrendous 30 minutes later.

If you have friends and family in Cabo they need to find a way to convert as many of their available credit dollars (Credit advance) into cash as credit cards are likely to be useless for the next couple of weeks with no power for an extended period of time. If they in an Ocean front resort it is critical that they get with the hotel staff and best understand the emergency plan (If they have one). If the structure is a steel reinforced concrete building built to withstand a Category 5 hurricane you might be okay but the surge on this could exceed 30 feet and ocean front resorts (Even big ones) can be laid to waste by the ocean in an direct eye wall hit at landfall.

The harbor in Cabo is unfortunately on the worst side of the storm for surge. This is going to be very ugly unless Odile changes course soon. I have collected some before images over the last 25 minutes and in just that amount of time the surf has increased significantly.

blackwolfmt - 9-14-2014 at 01:02 PM

lookin nasty

6_xlarge (Small).jpeg - 20kB

StuckSucks - 9-14-2014 at 01:09 PM

AccuWeather: "The southern tip of Baja California will experience the worse conditions from Odile Sunday night and into early Monday as 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rain floods the area. Sustained winds of 80-130 kph (50-80 mph) are expected and wind gusts approaching 160 kph (100 mph) will cause widespread power outages and structural damage."

chuckie - 9-14-2014 at 01:12 PM

Stay put, baby, go back when its safe......

mtgoat666 - 9-14-2014 at 01:16 PM

for the last 4 hrs it has stayed east of predicted track. if it keeps eastward track, it will be direct hit on cabo, and a land hit may alter storm intensity downward for parts further north

Katiejay99 - 9-14-2014 at 01:26 PM

It is relatively calm here in Todos Santos. We have some wind but not much. It is totally overcast and we are getting some spitting rain here and there.

blackwolfmt - 9-14-2014 at 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
Stay put, baby, go back when its safe......

You can say that again

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by blackwolfmt]

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by blackwolfmt]

pacsur - 9-14-2014 at 01:40 PM

Really cool time lapse video of the first bands hitting San Jose del Cabo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-twJC6GxVA&sns=em

Whale-ista - 9-14-2014 at 01:46 PM

Holy guacamole... thanks for sharing.

Quote:

Originally posted by pacsur
Really cool time lapse video of the first bands hitting San Jose del Cabo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-twJC6GxVA&sns=em

blackwolfmt - 9-14-2014 at 01:46 PM

Lets see if the webcam link works

[img]http://http://www.cabovillas.com/campage.asp?id=14[/img]

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by blackwolfmt]

bajajudy - 9-14-2014 at 02:41 PM

Whoa
We just got hit by that YouTube cloud.
42 mph gust, pitch black dark, buckets of rain
Lost power for about an hour
Much lighter now, no wind or rain.

Went to the beach
Probably 25' waves. The biggest I have ever seen here.
Water rushing down the loading ramp as the pangeros scramble to get their boats out.
That northern jetty is all alone with the sea all around.

I will continue to report as I can

To be honest, I thought that that was the beginning and that it would be non stop until tomorrow. VERY thankful for this breather.

Y'all take care

bajalinda - 9-14-2014 at 02:49 PM

thanks Katiejay - much the same here at La Aguja - just starting to get wind from the east. 3:50 pm

and thanks bajajudy too

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by bajalinda]

Sidamone - 9-14-2014 at 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by blackwolfmt
lests see if the webcam link works

[img]http://http://www.cabovillas.com/campage.asp?id=14[/img]

[Edited on 9-14-2014 by blackwolfmt]

Excellently placed Webcam! Just the way to experience a hurricane.

woody with a view - 9-14-2014 at 03:00 PM

keep your head down, Judy.

DENNIS - 9-14-2014 at 03:12 PM

Coincidently, and hopefully not prophetic, one of the a-bombs used in Japan was named "Little Boy"........El Niño.

mcnut - 9-14-2014 at 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by shari I also urge Doug to allow a separate thread for local on the scene updates that are soooo important for us who live here.

I would agree, this may well turn into a major and widespread event.

A separate thread for those directly effected, actually in Baja or owing property there, could be of great importance. Real time observations, calls for/offers of help and "all is well" reports.

The well wishes, forecast/webcam links and opinions/observations from afar could continue in this thread unabated.

Bruce

Gaucho - 9-14-2014 at 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy
Whoa
We just got hit by that YouTube cloud.
42 mph gust, pitch black dark, buckets of rain
Lost power for about an hour
Much lighter now, no wind or rain.

Went to the beach
Probably 25' waves. The biggest I have ever seen here.
Water rushing down the loading ramp as the pangeros scramble to get their boats out.
That northern jetty is all alone with the sea all around.

I will continue to report as I can

To be honest, I thought that that was the beginning and that it would be non stop until tomorrow. VERY thankful for this breather.

Y'all take care

Stay safe Judy and keep the books dry!!!

micah202 - 9-14-2014 at 03:26 PM

.
...more from the weather guy........

The track has been adjusted to the right and the model consensus is NNW @ 13 knots (15mph) which is an increase in forward speed. This will get ugly pretty quick here for Cabo. On the weather channel someone who sounded about 35-ish took some video of what looked like 25030 knots winds blowing the palm trees and a little bit of rain. At the end of the video she exclaims "Oh crap". I do not believe the hotel staff have adequately prepared these folks for what is coming later this afternoon and into tonight. If she is scared now....

CaboDreamer - 9-14-2014 at 03:41 PM

So true about the hotel staff not adequately informing the guest here. I live in San Jose del Cabo and had to check on a friends property near the beach in Cabo San Lucas earlier today. A middle aged tourist asked me for directions to a near by car rental agency. She wanted to take a day trip to Todos Santos and it was already mid-day. She really had no clue. I politely convinced her to put her road trip on hold.

And it is not only the inadequate informing of tourist here. There is also not enough usage of the local media especially radio. All morning long the local FM station barely mentioned the impending crisis. Ni modo?

Mula - 9-14-2014 at 03:42 PM

88 degrees and very humid, overcast, a little windy and thunder claps starting up here in Lopez.

Didn't lose internet or power during Norbert. Hope that holds true this time. . . . :lol:

desertcpl - 9-14-2014 at 03:50 PM

here is a good one

https://stormpulse.com/east-pacific/

Zola - 9-14-2014 at 03:55 PM

There is an excellent guide on hurricane preparations and safety precautions at the following UDL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

Jonno_aus - 9-14-2014 at 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by mtgoat666

Quote:

Originally posted by Jonno_aus
And where are you going to run too? The States?

I was being sarcastic earlier. Baja is so narrow that they're not too many places to hide. But it's ok. Prepare and you're fine. :yes:

desertcpl - 9-14-2014 at 04:11 PM

any one know when Cabo will get hit full blast,, and more local reports

desertcpl - 9-14-2014 at 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BillP
Wind is picking up CSL live video

thought I would bring this back up to the top,, don't look nice

BillP - 9-14-2014 at 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by desertcpl
any one know when Cabo will get hit full blast,, and more local reports

monoloco - 9-14-2014 at 04:25 PM

So far it's looking to me like the center is going to hit the east cape and either cross the mountains or head up into the sea. So far we've had .2 inches of rain and we have light east winds.

Ken Cooke - 9-14-2014 at 04:32 PM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hurricane-odile-t...

micah202 - 9-14-2014 at 04:49 PM

.
...passage weather is now showing the primary centre could poosibly go up the east side

desertcpl - 9-14-2014 at 04:54 PM

if it turns to the east now,, Cabo will get a direct hit,, or am I missing some thing

I noticed a few minutes ago that the one Cabo cam went offline

woody with a view - 9-14-2014 at 05:05 PM

this one shows the Sierra Gigantes tearing Odile in two and wringing out the water! good luck everyone!
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height

desertcpl - 9-14-2014 at 05:09 PM

Holly molly,, this is going to be really bad

any one in Cabo that an give us some boots on the ground update if they can

bigjohn - 9-14-2014 at 05:12 PM

Have friends staying in a hotel in Cabo and the hotel has mandated a 7pm curfew if you are still at the hotel and have not left. It will be a hell of a ride!

micah202 - 9-14-2014 at 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by desertcpl
if it turns to the east now,, Cabo will get a direct hit,, or am I missing some thing

I noticed a few minutes ago that the one Cabo cam went offline

...pretty safe to assume that we're witnessing one for the history books :wow:

...likely a category four hitting Cabo....with little to no warning to locals and tourists

desertcpl - 9-14-2014 at 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by soulpatch
AZ gonna get dumped on hard.

yes it is,, I still remember Nora when it came up the Cortez and into Yuma

pacsur - 9-14-2014 at 05:14 PM

6:11 pm San Jose
It's just raining and windy, I think we are getting ready to start receiving some stronger bands, wind has picked up a bit, maybe 35-50+mph, swimming pool has gone up about 2".
Still have power, dish tv working, landline down.

desertcpl - 9-14-2014 at 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by micah202

Quote:

Originally posted by desertcpl
if it turns to the east now,, Cabo will get a direct hit,, or am I missing some thing

I noticed a few minutes ago that the one Cabo cam went offline

...pretty safe to assume that we're witnessing one for the history books :wow:

...likely a category four hitting Cabo....with little to no warning to locals and tourists

yes its going to be some thing for the history books I am afraid
I do hope they have enough time to get to higher ground
this Hurricane is a monster

FYI

SFandH - 9-14-2014 at 05:18 PM

St. Odile - the patroness of ocular afflictions and ear diseases.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odile_of_Alsace

Sorry I don't have more to contribute.

Good luck to those in the path.

SFandH - 9-14-2014 at 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by micah202

with little to no warning to locals and tourists

Mexican TV has been reporting on this and having live coverage, just watched a news report. Emergency shelters for Los Cabos residents have been set up in schools and other more robust buildings. I imagine radio and TV stations have been broadcasting warnings since at least yesterday.

I was in Cabo one August when a hurricane came real close. Everybody knew ahead of time, and that was at least 10 years ago.

[Edited on 9-15-2014 by SFandH]

bajalinda - 9-14-2014 at 05:27 PM

6:25 pm at La Aguja - light rain now. It's actually really nice outside - not too humid or hot - as we sit on the patio and watch the skies. Will surely be coming inside fairly soon.

Bajaboy - 9-14-2014 at 05:30 PM

3.5 inches of rain projected for BA on Tuesday...I can only imagine the damage that might occur if most of Baja gets on average this amount of rain in a short period....hang in there folks

willardguy - 9-14-2014 at 05:32 PM

certainly gonna put a damper on independence day festivities! :no:

Dianamo - 9-14-2014 at 05:35 PM

The Weather Channel is predicting this to be the "worst" hurricane on record to hit Baja! Please everyone be safe!

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