Tis the season - Dual Hurricanes: Andres & Blanca

Quote: Originally posted by Hook

"During the past month the powers that be decided that it was the perfect time to put in underground electricity which means they dug up all of our downtown streets. So now we are going to have one MUDDY MUDDY downtown." That's astoundingly bad planning, given that it couldnt be done without CFE and their own federal govt. weather prognosticators have predicted an active and wet hurricane season. Todos Santos may see as much rain as any lowland location in Baja. [Edited on 6-6-2015 by Hook]

Quote: Originally posted by Katiejay99

Hey SFandH - How cool is THAT??? I just saved it to my bookmarks. Thank you so much for sharing.

Quote: Originally posted by Katiejay99

I would love to have the code. How do I get it? My son is a programmer and I will pass it to him with some ideas for this area specifically. Thanks for the Links!!

Cat 4; currently 130mph sustained winds

HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
900 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015

...BLANCA WITH 130 MPH-WINDS...
...ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE TO CHECK
BLANCA...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 109.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but a turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast by tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Blanca is expected to be near the southwest coast of Baja
California Sur in the warning area late Sunday.

Satellite estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Blanca
is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some weakening should begin on Sunday. Another Air Force
reconnaissance plane is en route to check Blanca.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area on Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area starting Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 10 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
portion of the state of Baja California, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches over Baja California Sur. These rains
could produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.



HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
900 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015

Blanca has made a significant comeback since yesterday. Satellite
images show a much better organized cloud pattern with a distinct
eye surrounded by very deep convection. The outflow is also well
established in all quadrants. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB indicate that the winds are up to 115 kt, making Blanca a
category 4 hurricane again on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane wind
scale. A weakening trend should begin tonight or early Sunday when
the hurricane encounters cool waters around 20 degrees North.
The weakening should occur even faster as the cyclone approaches
the west coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. The effect
of the high terrain and increasing shear will cause the cyclone
to become a remnant low in about 3 days.

Satellite fixes suggest that Blanca is moving toward the northwest
or 325 degrees at 9 kt. The steering controlling the motion of
of Blanca remains unchanged. The hurricane is expected to continue
toward the northwest and then north-northwestward around the
periphery of mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and
southwestern Texas. The southerly flow ahead of an approaching
trough will also contribute to the northward motion of Blanca. The
NHC forecast follows the track guidance which, in fact, continues to
be in very good agreement, and it gives more weight to the consensus
of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 109.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.8N 110.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 20.5N 110.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 24.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Quote: Originally posted by bajalorena

Another site with graphics, and you can activate the movement showing where the current track is. https://www.windyty.com/?21.412,-108.218,4

don't you just hate rainy days...

Quote: Originally posted by Bob and Susan

don't you just hate rainy days...

Quote: Originally posted by mtnpop

This will be an interesting first test for the new concrete expressway on the north side of the estuary to Loma Azul... Glad I held off painting the casita after Odile... would have hated doing it twice the same year... or maybe more.. it's not Aug or Sep. yet so it could be an interesting summer... Of course Colorado, Texas, and Okla are not a heck of a lot better so far.. Big storm rolling over the Sangres as I write this.... roll up your knickers... mother nature needs some sweet talk or somethin....

GFDL usually most accurate,which in this case means hang onto your hats Loreto and Mulege.

Cat 3; sustained winds are now 120mph.

Dead calm and comfortable here at La Aguja at 9:40 - but no stars to be seen outside.

Quote: Originally posted by cj5orion

webcams ? https://www.windyty.com/spot/ad/MMSL/22.95/-109.94?2015-06-0...

Quote: Originally posted by Katiejay99

We lost electricity from 6:30 until about 10 minutes ago. Not sure why because there really is very little wind. Lots of clouds whipping by

Quote: Originally posted by Hook

Well, as Cabo webcams go, I like this one. VERY realtime!!! http://www.cabovillasbeachresort.com/live-webcam.htm

Live Web Cams

Cat 1; 90mph sustained winds

HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SOON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 111.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 111.0 West. Blanca is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Blanca will approach the southwest coast of the Baja California
peninsula later today, and move near or along the coast tonight and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 90 mph (150 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight
before it reaches the southwestern coast of the Baja California
peninsula. Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
by Monday evening.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
southern portion of the warning area within a few hours, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions will then spread northward elsewhere within the warning
area later today and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 10 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
half of the state of Baja California, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches over Baja California Sur. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.



HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

The satellite presentation of Blanca continues to deteriorate, with
the eye no longer visible and the coverage and intensity of deep
convection diminishing. The current intensity is set at 80 kt which
is a blend of Dvorak T and Current Intensity numbers. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should provide a good estimate of the
intensity in a few hours. Under the influence of progressively
cooler sea surface temperatures, southerly vertical shear, and the
terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the cyclone should
continue to weaken quickly. The official intensity forecast is
close to the intensity model consensus and calls for the system to
weaken to a tropical storm within 12 to 24 hours. Blanca will
likely degenerate to a remnant low within a couple of days.

The initial motion estimate, 340/10 kt, is about the same as in the
previous advisory. Blanca should continue to move along the western
periphery of a mid- to low-level ridge until dissipation. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
also very close to the dynamical model consensus.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Blanca is expected to
affect portions of the southwestern United States later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 20.5N 111.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 22.2N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 24.5N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 26.7N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 28.7N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Zola, I think if you left now (as in within the next hour) you have a possibility of outrunning Blanca. Two variables; how fast you drive, and how fast everyone else is driving that also waited until the last minute to outrun the storm. If you stay, plan on being there a while. It's going to track right up the peninsula, and will probably take out several sections of Hwy 1. According to news reports the Gov't has put in a bunch of agencies (Army, Marines, Power Co. etc.) to facilitate repairs, but it's still going to be a mess.

I bet you wait 'till Dec. 24th to do your xmas shopping too, huh!

Good luck and be safe, whichever you choose. There are plenty of maps on the last 2 pages to tell you the time-frames of what to expect. I'd be concerned of northbound traffic myself.

There are lots of record cold, record rains, record... going on this year. Maybe Baja felt left out? Maybe she doesn't have a calendar?

While the hurricanes usually hold off until later in the season, the weather in Baja has been setting the stage for an earlier beginning to the storms and the hurricane season (based on the calendar) has begun. Anything can happen.

San Juanico is an amazing place to have to spend time. I do applaud your decision to not drive north at this point. It started to rain this morning at San Ignacio Lagoon. Not hard, but no telling what the road looks like right now....and you do not want to get stuck on that road with lots of rain coming!

Continued weakening; sustained winds of 80mph currently.

it was cloudy this morning but now it's clear and sunny here on the bay at mulege...all out "stuff" is put away...

Continued weakening; sustained winds of 70mph currently.

Happy Hour?

T. S. Blanca

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
900 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

...BLANCA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 111.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 111.2 West. Blanca is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.
On the forecast track, the center of Blanca will approach the
southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula overnight,
and move near or over the peninsula Monday through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h),
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Blanca is
expected to become to a tropical depression by Monday afternoon or
evening. Blanca will likely dissipate near or over northern
portions of the Baja California peninsula by late Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).



TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
900 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

Vertical shear and cold water are taking their toll on Blanca,
with recent microwave data indicating that the low-level center is
separating from the mid-level rotation noted in geostationary
satellite images. Maximum winds are now estimated to be 55 kt
based on a blend of Dvorak estimates of T3.5/4.5 from TAFB and
T3.0/4.0 from SAB. Continued shear, even colder water, and the
terrain of the Baja California peninsula should lead to further
weakening, and Blanca is forecast to become a tropical depression
within 24 hours and dissipate by 48 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast is very close to the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is 345/9 kt. Blanca is expected to continue
moving north-northwestward between a mid-level high centered over
northern Mexico and a deep-layer low located southwest of
California. As has been the case for days, there are still
some speed differences among the models, with the GFS being one of
the faster models. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to
the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus (TVCE), which are
essentially identical through 24 hours.

Quote: Originally posted by shari

I actually was hoping a new local update thread like this would be started.

No problem having separate threads that are specific to certain local areas. None of the merged threads have yet indicated an intention of being such - at least by my observation... fyi.

Here in loreto we have wind gusting to probably around 40 mph. And light rain. Started sometime around four o'clock. So far so good

Wind woke me at 5am. No rain yet. 24mph gust but average wind not bad..... Coffee perking .......




[Edited on 6-8-2015 by Russ]

Quote: Originally posted by Zola

I realized today that it is here where we wish to live, this is how we prefer to live, come what may! (But if a category 4 is ever headed our way, we will evacuate unless we cannot!)

It's a great feeling when you find that part of Baja that feels like home, isn't it Congrats!

With each storm you will get a better feel for what your area can handle (some areas can't handle wind, some areas can't support a lot of rain), as well as when you should leave. When you do chose to leave make sure it is early enough to get to a safe place. You do not want to be stuck out with no cell reception and in an area where help will not be able to get to you.

Make sure to have enough emergency supplies on hand throughout the summer and fall - it doesn't take a hurricane to wipe out roads in your neck of the woods. You just need a bit of water to impact the roads. You'll get a feel for it all and it will soon become second nature.

Here in San Juanico we have had gentle, steady, persistent rains that began during the wee hours (perhaps shortly after midnight) and have not stopped since. There has been no wind. The rainwaters are gently accumulating. Before the rains, the humidity became very intense, but now it is more comfortable again. So far it all seems like an unremarkable, salutary rainstorm, except that it cannot be good for the roads.... It will likely look very beautiful after the system passes and the sun returns. I hope we are not cut off from the world for too long, and that we do not get storm winds later in the day.

Rufflife, thanks for the comments above