BajaNomad

Jimena

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Mulegena - 9-1-2009 at 01:51 AM

Thanks, Sharky for the picture graphic. Good to see the graphic imposed over an actual photograph of the peninsula.

HaciendaCerritos - 9-1-2009 at 04:24 AM

I went outside to see how the wind was and check on storm surge. Cerritos beach club has its lights on so its easy to see the water line. It looks like there is a high tide line from over night but right now the line is normal and not anywhere close to the Beach Club. Light wind, steady drizzle rain. I can't really see the waves yet.

I'll tell you, I'm looking at EEB's site and I know there is a major hurricane coming towards us, but you sure can't tell it here. I think once it's closer we'll start feeling it but for now it's really quiet. I'll post a picture once the sun comes up.

Mexitron - 9-1-2009 at 04:32 AM

Stay safe everyone...any nomads in Puerto Lopez/Mag Bay? Hope they and the towns people get out of there--a CAT 4 can be amazingly brutal......

Bob and Susan - 9-1-2009 at 04:37 AM

the bay here in mulege at 5:30am

to the south...clouds

to the north...clear...lots of stars

looks like rain in the south part of the bay

we'll have it soon enough

msteve1014 - 9-1-2009 at 04:39 AM

Bill, those are spooky pictures. Sounds like you had a great trip and are getting out in time. Hoping for the best for the people there.

Bob and Susan - 9-1-2009 at 04:46 AM

it doesnt look too good...

tt.jpg - 40kB

Bob and Susan - 9-1-2009 at 04:55 AM

of course the entire place is cloudy

ttt.jpg - 38kB

Bob and Susan - 9-1-2009 at 05:08 AM

6am completely cloudy
wind 6mph

tttt.jpg - 39kB

oldlady - 9-1-2009 at 05:09 AM

No, doesn't look good. Looks like a chance of slight weakening, perhaps the best thing to realistically hope for now.
We are "buttoned up" as much as can be.

Good luck everyone, likely to be a long couple of days. God be with you all.

Russ - 9-1-2009 at 05:49 AM

This is only the last paragraph of the forecast on http://www.eebmike.com/ We should take maximum precautions for this hurricane as mentioned by others.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE BAJA
PENINSULA AT AN OBLIQUE ANGLE...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT
OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by Russ]

pacside - 9-1-2009 at 06:16 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by HaciendaCerritos
I went outside to see how the wind was and check on storm surge. Cerritos beach club has its lights on so its easy to see the water line. It looks like there is a high tide line from over night but right now the line is normal and not anywhere close to the Beach Club. Light wind, steady drizzle rain. I can't really see the waves yet.

I'll tell you, I'm looking at EEB's site and I know there is a major hurricane coming towards us, but you sure can't tell it here. I think once it's closer we'll start feeling it but for now it's really quiet. I'll post a picture once the sun comes up.


Thanks HC for update. FYI caretaker is staying in my casa against my strong suggestion he seek shelter inland. He worked on plywood shutters all day yesterday with a local carpenter and will put up today if needed. Although we think biggest issue will be flooding. Good luck out there HC and stay away from glass.

Everyone buene suerte and take care of yourselves.
pacside

HaciendaCerritos - 9-1-2009 at 06:33 AM

Hey Pacside: Whatsup with this camper? I didn't notice it there yesterday - looks like it's right in your yard, but it may just be the angle. Someone is NUTS!



[Edited on 9-1-2009 by HaciendaCerritos]

HaciendaCerritos - 9-1-2009 at 06:44 AM

Cerritos Beach Club buttoned up - nobody on the beach, nobody in the water. Calm, overcast, sprinkling. Wave sets coming in faster than normal but not very large. Photo taken at 7:40 am 09/01/09.



[Edited on 9-1-2009 by HaciendaCerritos]

shari - 9-1-2009 at 06:56 AM

wow, I just cannot believe how close that stuff is to the surfline...that's nuts....looks like a beach clean up is about to happen.

pacside - 9-1-2009 at 07:06 AM

"Hey Pacside: Whatsup with this camper? I didn't notice it there yesterday - looks like it's right in your yard, but it may just be the angle. Someone is NUTS!"

Yea thanks for the pic HC. Caretaker told me he moved his camper to the 'ramp' to the north of the casa but I didn't realize it was this high up. Since you can't build on the dune our casa is 15 or 20 meters back and we have a 13 ft high retaining wall from street side so he is using the wall and ramp as a 'fence'. I'm surprised he didn't move it inland. It needs to be lower down for more protection...i'll text him as he may be planning to lower it.
pacside

bajajudy - 9-1-2009 at 07:13 AM

Heads up for you people that close to the beach.
Make sure that everyone has a life preserver tied well to something trusty worthy outside but close to your house. Be able to get to it either by another line or a structure to hold on to.
I am not trying to scare you but I would not be in any of the above locations in these pictures. Storm surges kill more people than wind. so seriously consider heading for higher ground. pacside, you should insist that your caretaker leave. No one has seen a storm surge like Jimena will bring.

Here in San Jose we have had a little rain and very little wind but it is dark as doo doo right now at 8:15

BTW before the course turned more to the west, I put life preservers in my house with a rope to tie them to. I am almost a mile from the shore but with the new giant water hole(Puerto Los Cabos marina) in front of me, I was fearful of a surge all the way up here

bajajudy - 9-1-2009 at 07:26 AM

From Baja Insider


Category 4: Extreme Damage

*
All signs knocked down.
*
Severe damage to houses.
*
Mobile homes completely destroyed.
*
Major damage to buildings near shore.
*
Widespread flooding.
*
Major beach erosion.

Cypress - 9-1-2009 at 07:35 AM

Would advise anyone with boats on trailers to leave the plugs in the boats and let the rain fill 'em. the added weight will hold 'em down, also anchor the trailer.

shari - 9-1-2009 at 07:39 AM

I totally agree Judy...i think many underestimate this bad girl. i would ORDER my caretaker to seek refuge. The issue with stubborn people is that rescuers have to risk their lives to save them. I may even consider seeking refuge...which is pretty rare for me! Juan will be out trying to save people too but we will try our best to make sure people are in the shelters before things get bad.

Pacside... I may be eating my words to you yesterday!

monoloco - 9-1-2009 at 07:41 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by shari
wow, I just cannot believe how close that stuff is to the surfline...that's nuts....looks like a beach clean up is about to happen.
If this one is like Fausto that stuff will be GONE.

JIMENA _ EAST CAPE

oldjack - 9-1-2009 at 08:01 AM

Maybe it would be useful for Nomads to find reports by area of particular interest(I AM CONCERNED about all of Baja); my Palapa is in Los Barriles and I can't get down till next week... I would be very interested in what is happening/what does happen in the East Cape area.... anybody there that can report???

jls - 9-1-2009 at 08:06 AM

High tides are at 9 a.m. and 8:30 p.m today and tomorrow for Mag Bay??? Am I right about that? This is a tremendous worry what with all the flooding and the sea surge that will be coinciding with the high tides. Could make for a 10 + sea? Anyone out there knowledgeable on the tides and the expected surge with this hurricane?

monoloco - 9-1-2009 at 08:12 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by HaciendaCerritos
Cerritos Beach Club buttoned up - nobody on the beach, nobody in the water. Calm, overcast, sprinkling. Wave sets coming in faster than normal but not very large. Photo taken at 7:40 am 09/01/09.



[Edited on 9-1-2009 by HaciendaCerritos]
I don't know if you know anyone at the surf club but if you do you might want to let them know that the area where they have their generators has been under water numerous times. I would just hate to see their diesel fuel pollute the beach.

aldosalato - 9-1-2009 at 08:15 AM

9 AM it started to rain hard in La Paz. Still little or no wind.

aldosalato - 9-1-2009 at 08:22 AM

Till now Jimena looks following the path of Juliette that was cat 4 when presented Southwest of Cabo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Juliette_(2001)

shari - 9-1-2009 at 08:23 AM

storm surge, high tide and rain will be the problem no doubt those places will be in water and waves destroy things very quickly.

the wind will hit all of a sudden...you will be amazed...then it is hell till you are in the eye when all is calm and really really weird...you can breath a bit then WHAM...wind hits you from another direction.

my memories of being in a hurricaine are vivid and sure hope I dont have to relive it again.

HaciendaCerritos - 9-1-2009 at 08:24 AM

Wind has definitely picked up here. Waves are larger and the waterline is rising. 2 surfers having a blast out there.

About the Beach Club: Not sure if anyone is there, haven't seen anyone so far today. I'll watch for somebody down there.

There is a huge mass of rain moving towards us from the mountains - moving fast.

Be safe everyone.

shari - 9-1-2009 at 08:26 AM

problem is people may not be able to get out even if they want to once that rain starts...look forward to your reporting hacienda...thanks

JESSE - 9-1-2009 at 08:27 AM

Raining heavy in La Paz, seems the thing is steering out, watch out our Mulege and Asuncion.

shari - 9-1-2009 at 08:30 AM

this mornings news of Jimena going west northwest made the executive decision easier this morning to get things boarded up...when John was tracking up here....we just sat and watched and werent really ready...he veered over and we got like an hour of rain and 40 knots of wind...this is why many are complacent here...but we are in high gear right now in preparation.

monoloco - 9-1-2009 at 08:32 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by aldosalato
Till now Jimena looks following the path of Juliette that was cat 4 when presented Southwest of Cabo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Juliette_(2001)
During Juliette we measured over 20" of rain in 12 hours just east of Pescadero.

bajajudy - 9-1-2009 at 08:53 AM

Just back from the beach. The police are there trying to keep people off the beach as there is much erosion. Very angry surf. The kiddie park has, once again, been washed into the parking lot by the fishing palapas
Wind out of the east, which tells me that we are at the top of the storm right now. Not too strong maybe 10mph.
Aldo, you are right about Juliette. It looks like the same path and strength. We were not here(we were in Costa Rica and got stuck in Mex City) and it took us almost a week to get back because the airport was closed. When we did get back, we had to wade with all of our neighbors across an angry San Jose River. The road was closed for almost 2 weeks.
Oh! the road is still open right now. The bridge workers are putting all of their prefab parts up on the bridge. There is no doubt that both ends will wash out as they are just dirt.
Starting to rain a lot right now.
Stay safe everyone!
WOW Jim just got a text message from Telmex about Jimena! I remember one storm when we depended on the port captain from San Lucas on VHF radio for our storm information...times have surely changed.

oldlady - 9-1-2009 at 08:57 AM

A friend of mine whose husband works for CFE says 300 are due to arrive from Sinaloa this morning to help restore the anticipated power outages as soon as possible. As you whippersnappers would say, "Cool".

pacside - 9-1-2009 at 09:00 AM

good info bajajudy and thanks for your previous suggestions. it is interesting to hear about your experiences before all this technology.

haciendacerritos are you still online? am i correct that unless the telcel pole up on top of that hill falls over you will be able to access internet?

pacside

Taco de Baja - 9-1-2009 at 09:05 AM

Recent modeling shows it hugging the coast and heading for the hook. Hugging the coast like that is the worst thing that could happen.

Weather underground link

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by Taco de Baja]

Jimena 2009.JPG - 48kB

My best wishes

standingwave - 9-1-2009 at 09:13 AM

to all of you and those you love in the storm track. May you all be safe.

Bob H - 9-1-2009 at 09:15 AM

Take this advice from a guy who grew up in Southern Florida... if this storm is a Cat 3 or above when it comes ashore... evacuate. A 4 or 5 is absolutely devestating! Particularly close to the shorelines.

Stay safe amigos!

Bob H

vandenberg - 9-1-2009 at 09:16 AM

Looks like La Paz and Loreto will be spared the brunt of the wind. Hope the same goes for Mulege. Landfall is now projected south of GN. Shari and company, hang on to your hats. Looks like you're in for it. Stay safe and the hell with property.

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific/fullscreen/current

HaciendaCerritos - 9-1-2009 at 09:18 AM

Yea, I'm here and yes, you are right - as long as that pole stands, I'm online.

It has been wonderful here - watching the 5 surfers having a blast on those waves, the birds diving for fish and then getting blown backwards. The wind is calm at this moment - 5 minutes ago it was a good blow up here on the point but the palm trees on the beach didn't move. Funniest thing.

I remember Juliette only too well. I rode her out in Cabo right on the marina. I'm a Navy brat, grew up all over the world and have been through my share of hurricanes and Typhoons. Typhoon Karen in Guam wiped us out in November of 1962. I have alot of respect for them!

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by HaciendaCerritos]

JESSE - 9-1-2009 at 09:21 AM

I have family near Insurgentes, already talked to them and they have made the necessary preparations with the help of the Military.

Good Wishes

capitolkat - 9-1-2009 at 09:25 AM

I'm thinking of all my friends in Baja Sur. I'll be there in about 30 days and hope to see you all well and in good spirits. for what it's worth I've been tracking the storm since I got up this AM and it seems to have shifted about 33 miles west while only a few miles north during the same time. It shows to be 122 nautical miles Sw of Cabo's arch and moving NNW-which --like Vandenburg says- Hold on to your hat Shari--like any untrained forecaster you get what you pay for in my predictions but my hope is that it continues to shift Westward and all you get in Baja Sur is a couple of days of rain. Norm

oldlady - 9-1-2009 at 09:28 AM

Shari and company should get outta there. I agree with Bob H!

Paulclark - 9-1-2009 at 09:28 AM

Very quiet -- no wind but surf -- about 1 1/2" of rain so far at Castillo de Arena.

Beach photos at: http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=142603&id=54098362...

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by Paulclark]

lingililingili - 9-1-2009 at 09:40 AM

Everyone take care! We're thinking of you and hope not one soul is hurt.

Taco de Baja - 9-1-2009 at 09:41 AM

History in the making?

Since records began to be kept in 1949, no CAT 3, or above, hurricanes have hit the west coast of Baja, and Kiko in 1989 is the only CAT 3 to make landfall in the east coast.

Be safe down there!

Baja Insider link


Category Three Hurricane:
Sustained winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Dangerous winds will cause extensive damage. Some structural damage to houses and buildings will occur with a minor amount of wall failures. Mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Many windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

Category Four Hurricane:
Sustained winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds causing devastating damage are expected. Some wall failures with some complete roof structure failures on houses will occur. All signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (primarily pre-1994 construction). Extensive damage to doors and windows is likely. Numerous windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Windborne debris will cause extensive damage and persons struck by the wind-blown debris will be injured or killed. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Fallen trees could cut off residential areas for days to weeks. Electricity will be unavailable for weeks after the hurricane passes.

Mulegena - 9-1-2009 at 09:43 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by shari
I may even consider seeking refuge...which is pretty rare for me! Juan will be out trying to save people too but we will try our best to make sure people are in the shelters before things get bad.


Shari, get your wonderful self off the point tomorrow, my darling ladyfriend, please.

Osprey - 9-1-2009 at 09:44 AM

Same here in La Ribera. Cars can't pass through the flooded area at Santa Cruz but that is expected every rain event like this. We are hoping for 50MPH winds or less as the eye goes due west of Cabo. We still have power so comparatively (John/Octave/many others) we are livin' large right at the moment.

Diver - 9-1-2009 at 09:45 AM

Bob is right; I was in So Fla for Andrew.
The mobil homes and campers didn't have a chance.
Roofs went flying; palms broke in half or sideways .... anything loose was airborn.
Even really well-built homes were damaged.

If Jimena hit's Asuncion at 130 mph ................... the Gypsies may be wishing they had made the upper floor of their casa with concrete block !!

I hope it takes a sudden turn to the west !!
Please be safe !!

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by Diver]

Diver - 9-1-2009 at 09:51 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Mulegena
Quote:
Originally posted by shari
I may even consider seeking refuge...which is pretty rare for me! Juan will be out trying to save people too but we will try our best to make sure people are in the shelters before things get bad.


Shari, get your wonderful self off the point tomorrow, my darling ladyfriend, please.


Yes Shari. please.
Maybe hang at Lupita's or somewhere higher up the hill ?
Is there a shelter somewhere ?
Or the church ? Or up by the water tank ?
Where WOULD you go ??
.

aldosalato - 9-1-2009 at 09:53 AM

Little rain in La Paz 10am-11am. Little wind. Spoke to a friend in Cabo and just some rain and wind. Jimena still away from coastline till now. Hope go further west and lose strentgh.

Diver - 9-1-2009 at 09:53 AM

Yikes !!
I just thought of Hippolito !!
I hope they are all evacuating !??
That would not be a good place to be if the hurricane comes close !!

pacside - 9-1-2009 at 09:55 AM

Thousands Evacuated as Hurricane Jimena Swirls Toward Baja California
By VOA News
01 September 2009

A NOAA-NASA GOES Project satellite image collected at 7.45am EDT, 01 Sep 2009, shows Hurricane Jimena off the Baja Peninsula coast
Hurricane Jimena has grown into an extremely dangerous storm swirling toward Mexico's Baja California peninsula, scaring off tourists and forcing authorities to evacuate thousands of reluctant slum dwellers.

Police, firefighters and military personnel drove through shantytowns, trying to persuade some 10,000 people to evacuate shacks made of plastic sheeting, wood, reeds and even blankets.

At last report, 1200 universal, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm was 250 kilometers south of Cabo San Lucas, popularly known as Los Cabos, moving northwest.

Jimena is expected to make landfall as early as Tuesday, bringing with it winds of 250 kilometers-per-hour. Its storm surge, along with battering waves, will likely produce significant coastal flooding along the Baja peninsula.

Much of Baja is sparsely populated desert and mountains that are popular with nature lovers, surfers, sportsfishermen and retirees.

Los Cabos, which is a more built-up area, attracts tourists to its golf courses, resorts and beaches.

Jimena's approach has already prompted the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to move an international meeting on tax havens from Los Cabos to Mexico City. The two-day talks open Tuesday.

The U.S. State Department has urged Americans to consider carefully the risks of travel to areas in Mexico that might be affected by the hurricane.

A travel alert issued Monday said Americans in areas likely to be affected by Jimena and who do not have access to adequate and safe shelter should consider leaving while commercial flights are still available. U.S. officials say seating capacity on those flights may be extremely limited.

Some information for this report was provided by AP.

BirdDog - 9-1-2009 at 09:58 AM

Thinking of everyone. Be safe.

Bajagypsy - 9-1-2009 at 09:58 AM

Diver, we are expecting to be a one story shortly. Its' ok, what happens happens, our biggest worry is all our friends. Wish we could be down there to help.

Diver, your lucky you haven't started building yet!

YARDSAIL - 9-1-2009 at 09:59 AM

JUST STARTING TO RAIN SERIOUSLY IN DOWNTOWN LOS BARRILES, AND GETTING THE FIRST HINTS OF THE WIND...

vandenberg - 9-1-2009 at 09:59 AM

Another consideration is the likely power failure during the storm. Since the northern part of BCS depends on the power grid coming from the San Carlos plant, and, since it's in the northeastern quadrant of the storm, a prolonged outage is quite possible. Even the much weaker Norbert caused many hours of outages and went by the plant more than 50 miles to the south.

pacside - 9-1-2009 at 10:23 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by HaciendaCerritos
Yea, I'm here and yes, you are right - as long as that pole stands, I'm online.

It has been wonderful here - watching the 5 surfers having a blast on those waves, the birds diving for fish and then getting blown backwards. The wind is calm at this moment - 5 minutes ago it was a good blow up here on the point but the palm trees on the beach didn't move. Funniest thing.

I remember Juliette only too well. I rode her out in Cabo right on the marina. I'm a Navy brat, grew up all over the world and have been through my share of hurricanes and Typhoons. Typhoon Karen in Guam wiped us out in November of 1962. I have alot of respect for them!

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by HaciendaCerritos]


Good that's what I thought re your internet access. What a sight that must be to see nature so close up...hopefully not too close for you. You do have hurricane experience wow.

Would appreciate your eyeball reporting on water level and when it breaches the sand dune in front of mi casa. House was built ~50 feet back from dune (since you can't build on the dune) but built up so same level of dune. However, both the north and south sides of the casa there are steep declines so once water breaches the dune it hopefully will go around house downhill with gravity and around the back and not through the house. Than we'll have serious flooding in back. Interesting to see how that 13 foot high retaining wall stands up in the back where the water will form. Builder said casa being built of concrete block all around with deep foundation footings could stand up to a strong hurricane...I don't think he meant this strong.

In any event, it's just cement and stuff. Peoples welfare is what's most important.

pacside

Diver - 9-1-2009 at 10:27 AM

I just watched a few cycles of the moisture model.

Those spotty light and occassionally heavy rains that you have been getting in Cabo, La Paz and Todos Santos will turn into SERIOUS rain within 1 -3 hours !!

It's time to get where you are going before the roads flood !!!
Be safe !!

Bajagypsy - 9-1-2009 at 10:30 AM

I second Diver, everyone please be safe! Don't take chances, just get to safety, as soon as you can.

Skeet/Loreto - 9-1-2009 at 10:31 AM

Good L:uck Shari and Friends!!

Please all of you folks in Loreto, Mulege and on the East side. Be aware that this storm is full of water and the Mountains may get up to 15 inches.

I was in Loreto when "Lisa' hit in 1973. The flooding can be very damaging and could keep anything moving from North to South on the Highway for several weeks, so get prepared and stock up with plenty of Canned Soup!!!


Shari, please let us all know as soon as you are able and in the Clear.

Pam: How about you folks in Loreto?? Please let us know how you are doing.

Mulege: Anybody have a reort??

Skeet/loreto

baitcast - 9-1-2009 at 10:31 AM

Shari that monster is headed straight for you guys!,Ive been in two of these things one being a monster in Japan.

If you can get off that bluff,this has the power to just flatten places you are just to exposed,is there a place back away from the beach maybe a church or a real soild place to hole up?

Thinking of you folks
Rob

Skipjack Joe - 9-1-2009 at 10:32 AM

Looks like it will be a cat 1 by the time it reaches Asuncion.

Constitucion and Insurgents, though, may get a cat 4 by tomorrow morning.

ep200913.gif - 31kB

Bill Collector - 9-1-2009 at 10:39 AM

We are over in La Capila, just South of Buena Vista. It's been raining on and off since early this morning. We are getting stronger rain and winds right now. I can see across to Los Barriles looks like they are getting plenty of rain .The sea is just starting to build with white caps. We had winds at 25 mph it's dropped off now.

pacside - 9-1-2009 at 10:40 AM

folks are twittering away on Jimena...go to www.twitter.com and do a search on hurricane jimena.

pacside

vgabndo - 9-1-2009 at 10:54 AM

Shari, you are the one to wade thrugh fire to help someone. When you are tempted to put yourself in danger, take a breath and remember the planet needs you a good while longer. Don't take any chances. Be safe sister. I wish I was there to help.

jannyk - 9-1-2009 at 10:58 AM

The 11am update is here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/011748....


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 011748
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

...JIMENA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT REMAINS AT CATEGORY FOUR
STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

MitchMan - 9-1-2009 at 10:59 AM

Hey Jesse,
Was going to be in La Paz today, but Volaris canceled flights fromTJ to La Paz. Rescheduled for Tomorrow, arrival 3pm La Paz time. Worried about the house in La Paz, about 3/4 of a mile inland. 900 sq ft, made of cinder block built about 8 years ago. Sealed the roof with "3-yr Top" from Comex last year. Only one coat. Hope it works.

I have two big Mesquite trees in Back yard. Luckily had the trees trimmed two weeks ago. The lot is surrounded by a 7-1/2 foot cinder block wall - big lot, about 9300 sq ft. Hope the bars covering the windows and the cinder block wall surrounding the yard protect the windows from breaking and letting debris and rain in.

Your updates are invaluable to me.

I am worried sick about the house. I have no experience with hurricanes. Don't know what to expect. I am watching La Paz weather reports from various reporting services. Problem is that they vary too significantly to be able to believe any of them. Sounds like worst case, based on these reporting agencies, is 43 MPH winds tonight and early tomorrow morning. Hoping the Mogote and the La Paz bay serve as mitigating factors to winds and ocean surge, but don't know for sure.

Was in La Paz this time last year when they had a storm. Winds were about 35 MPH with some gusts to 50 MPH. Was staying at the Los Arcos hotel. It rained off and on for about two days, nothing really spectacular. That kind of weather here in Orange County, CA would be nothing. But, in La Paz, it almost crippled the city. There were intermittant electrical outages for up to 6 hours and employees couldn't make it in to work in downtown La Paz because of arroyos being full. Drainage in La Paz is really poor. So, what I considered a mild storm, brought the city to a halt. Employees for two or three days couldn't come to work so government offices were closed as were most shops in downtown La Paz for the same reason.

This storm appears to be bringing worse weather than was experienced last year. So, I read your posts and others like it that have first hand immediate knowledge of what is going on in La Paz with extreme interest.

Thank you, man.

Skeet/Loreto - 9-1-2009 at 11:07 AM

Mitchman:

Know it is tough not to be in La Paz.

Does no good to worry, just have Faith that it want be as bad as you expect.

It looks to me as it it will not be as bad as the past where many, many people were swept out in the Bay and consumed by the Sharks as they were in 1973.

Skeet

akbear - 9-1-2009 at 11:10 AM

Here in Buena Vista it's off & on also. Wind is picking up & clouds are moving fast , East to West.

MitchMan - 9-1-2009 at 11:11 AM

Thanks Skeet.
Wow, hadn't heard about the 1973 disaster. Lived in So Cal all my life. I am realizing I know nothing about "real weather".

DENNIS - 9-1-2009 at 11:13 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Skeet/Loreto
It looks to me as it it will not be as bad as the past where many, many people were swept out in the Bay and consumed by the Sharks as they were in 1973.

Skeet


GAWWWDAMMM....That's a relief. How many were there, Skeet. Sure hate to miss the details.

lingililingili - 9-1-2009 at 11:14 AM

Mitchman:

I received this message this a.m. from La Paz.

"Hola,
We are all battened down and ready although the latest predictions has Jimena going along the Pacific and coming into land up near Mag bay. We will probably get lots of high wind and rain but not hurricane force. It is anticipated at 11pm tonight. vamos a ver . . .
We had heavy rain yesterday and ended up mopping out. MX construction is not made for rain.
If there's no death and destruction hurricanes can be exciting. Best action we see all year. Although the after mess is a lot of work to clean up.
We just got back from an early morning walk. It was spitting but refreshing. We walked the back streets as the Malecon is covered in muck from the rain and debris yesterday and it is just so slippery."

Hope this helps.

dtbushpilot - 9-1-2009 at 11:19 AM

Good luck to all in the East Cape, wish I was down there for the hurricane party......dt

shari - 9-1-2009 at 11:27 AM

just taking a break from trying to plywood up all our amigo's houses...
gypsy, you now have plywood all over your windows and roof fortified
birdog...got your windows boarded up and stuff moved
nancy....same deal.....the ants have been scurrying around all day...lucky it's overcast

still not many people believe it might be bad...we are thinking about which house to hole up in....got ice for a huge cooler of beer too...
the telegraph office had no money today as the truck wouldnt come because of the storm...dang...wanted to pay the workers

we are pretty ready and if it looks knarly...will evacuate...wish the roof was on our rock rooms

Bajagypsy - 9-1-2009 at 11:34 AM

Shari, thank you from the bottom of our hearts, and thank the ants for us as well. Seriously, if you need a place, stay in our main floor, should be good.

dtbushpilot - 9-1-2009 at 11:34 AM

Shari, if the air strip is usable after the storm passes maybe I can fly down with some supplies.....dt

bajajudy - 9-1-2009 at 11:35 AM

Just back from a quick check of the beach and the marina, which looks like a big mud puddle. The sea spray was so thick that we could not see Palmilla from La Playa. Neighbors have finally started board up.
wind gusting to 20, no rain, road still open although not an easy passage. not as dark as it was.
getting ready for no road, no power, no phone.
I have also weathered many storms and, diver, I too was in the path of Andrew...in Key West. We were helping friends get their shops boarded up and sail boat secured and they closed the road. Of course, they evacuated everyone to Homestead which is where he went ashore. I was in Ruby in the Philippines, Dave and Frederick in St Croix on a boat in the harbor....to name a few that I can remember. I have a healthy respect for their power and take no chances.

Stay safe and smart.


Bob...evacuation might be possible in Fla...where would we go? the roads are already in trouble here and will only get worse. JACK...Flights have been cancelled. If you are supposed to fly down soon, check with your airline.

You guys are amazing !

djh - 9-1-2009 at 11:36 AM

Shari, your neighbors are so lucky to have you in the community !

Peace & safety to you and your neighbors, friends, and family.

djh

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by djh]

Eli - 9-1-2009 at 11:47 AM

Thanks for the thread and the updates, it is so good to know what is going on when you are out of the loop. Hoping for some good rains and minumal wind.

roamin - 9-1-2009 at 11:49 AM

Any reports out of Todos Santos? I read the posts from Cerritos earlier and I am a little antsy...

DENNIS - 9-1-2009 at 11:58 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by shari
....got ice for a huge cooler of beer too...


Atta girl........

Shari....yesterday, George GC asked you about Angie and Fred. Have you seen them? What are their plans, if you know? They're down there with a fifth wheel.

Bajagypsy - 9-1-2009 at 11:59 AM

Shari, Mr. Gypsy said your the best! He didn't expect you to organize all that you did for us.

comitan - 9-1-2009 at 12:04 PM

If you see the box GFDL model run on NOOA click very interesting.

shari - 9-1-2009 at 12:06 PM

Angie and fred took my advice last night to abandon ship today so are headed for san quentin today but other nomads are on their way here...crazy buggers.

david...by all means fly in with supplies and moral support!!! The strip should be OK...wonder about our nice new highway?

finally the marines and proteccion civil are getting the schools ready for shelters and we have our old vhf handhelds ready to go as phone lines etc. will be down.

san hipolito has evacuated....only tita and bimbo are still there but we're trying to get them to come here as they will be cut off by tomorrow.

Juan says we will stay here as we are somewhat protected by the bluff and island...we'll see...I'll get my camera batteries charged up! wooo hooo

DianaT - 9-1-2009 at 12:08 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Skipjack Joe
Looks like it will be a cat 1 by the time it reaches Asuncion.


That is what it looks like now and we are still hoping it will turn out to sea---can't give up hope.

While our house is being as secured as well as possible by our good friends---plywood on the windows etc., we are more concerned with many of our friends in Bahia Asuncion who have wood homes REALLY not built for hurricanes of any size.

It does not mean that our home will be absolutely be safe, but it is our friends about whom we worry----

Diane

Paulclark - 9-1-2009 at 12:11 PM

Wind is picking up -- gusting to 35 mph ESE - Grey and cloudy light rain.

shari - 9-1-2009 at 12:11 PM

I'm not liking the looks of these new models at all.
but I"m glad you all down at the tip may get off lighter than expected.

It would be helpful for those posting in the thick of things to post like every hour or so...so we know when you dont...that the power has gone off there...maybe delegate someone on scene to be the check in person in that area....and check into chat too so we can exchange info.

ep200913_model.gif - 30kB

Big Thanks

tortuga - 9-1-2009 at 12:12 PM

Thanks guys for eye witness accounts from East cape area. We have lot and trailer north of Los Barriles. This is very helpful for us in the states.
To all of you in Baja sur, may it go well for you!
Saludos, Tortuga

Skeet/Loreto - 9-1-2009 at 12:14 PM

Dennis:
I will await the details of Hurricane Lisa in 1976 instead of 73.
You might want to Google it up.

Again, everyone one the East side, at Loreto, San Nicholas, Mulege, Sta Rosillia be very cautious and watch for flooding from the heavy rains expected in the Mountains.

Hang in There!!

Skeet

Buena Suerte Amigos

lindsay - 9-1-2009 at 12:16 PM

Wishing all nomads in BCS our best as you prepare for Jimena...you are in our thoughts and all of my daughter's Mexican relatives have checked in from Los Cabos, La Paz & Mulege where they are getting ready and hoping that Jimena does not pack too much of a punch...cuidate mucho y estamos pensando en ustedes!! :smug:

HaciendaCerritos - 9-1-2009 at 12:18 PM

Here at Cerritos beach the surf has not risen above normal. Wind is iffy - comes on strong then dead quiet - typical hurricane stuff. No rain right now. Streets are muddy but passable.

All is good.

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by HaciendaCerritos]

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by HaciendaCerritos]

oldlady - 9-1-2009 at 12:20 PM

Shari I'll post as much as I can from Centenario, we have a gen so power not a prob, heavy rain and I can't get a sat sig for internet.

just having a breather now from the last squall through, not too bad here yet.

shari - 9-1-2009 at 12:24 PM

great old lady...thanks...sounds like things are still pretty good there.

roamin - 9-1-2009 at 12:27 PM

Thanks for the updates cerritos. There are a couple of us up in WA State watching and hoping for the best.

Updated graphic

Sharksbaja - 9-1-2009 at 12:29 PM

DianaT - 9-1-2009 at 12:33 PM

Sharks,
I do not fully understand that graphic, but from I can tell, it looks like it is predicting that when and if it hits Bahia Asuncion, the winds will be less than hurricane strength???? I hope so.


Diane

HaciendaCerritos - 9-1-2009 at 12:34 PM

Okay, forget what I said - There are 2 red flags on the beach and I've been going out every now and then to look and see how far the water line is from them in order to judge whether the surf was coming up or not. No change. No change. No change.

Just went out to take another look and was surprised to see two people out there moving the flags. Then I started looking a little closer and guess what? The surf HAS come up. The waves are HUGE and angry - no surfers in the water now.

The previous post I had just looked out my office window, noted the flags and made the report. I will be more diligent!!

Be safe everyone.

Bajahowodd - 9-1-2009 at 12:35 PM

I have been in several hurricanes over the years. I was not present when Andrew struck Florida, but three days later, I began a three month assignment in South Florida supervising catastrophe adjusters for a major insurance company. While it may be small solace to those who are in the path of Jimena, there are some comparisons that bear noting. Andrew struck South Florida as a cat 5 with sustained winds of 165mph. It actually had been much weaker prior to moving North of Puerto Rico and finding the very warm waters of the gulfstream. Gulfstream water temps are much warmer than those of the Pacific, West of Baja. Andrew also struck an area that was virtually flat, devoid of mountains, which therefore offered no resistance. The area struck was also well populated, meaning there was plenty of improved property for it to destroy. The reason I bring this up, is that according to present models, Jimena will move West of Cabo into cooler water that should cause it to diminish in strength. The quick and dirty best case scenario is that the farther North Jimena travels prior to making landfall, the weaker she will be.

Hoping for the best for all Nomads, their friends and family.

CLICK GRAPHIC FOR CURRENT DATA

Sharksbaja - 9-1-2009 at 12:35 PM




Then hit "refresh"

[Edited on 9-1-2009 by Sharksbaja]

jls - 9-1-2009 at 12:41 PM

I say hang in there too...Shari, if your place was getting good and splashed in the last big surf........
anyways, I wish I was there with you guys, and I have know idea why. Please be safe and good luck to everyone in BA. And the whole of Baja too.
Juanito
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