BajaNomad - IVO - storm reports, rain & road updates

IVO - storm reports, rain & road updates

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Osprey - 8-26-2013 at 03:04 PM

Several years back a major hurricane formed on the Mexican coast, went northwest as usual. There was another about the same size following right on it's heel and NOAA and others said the second would not have the energy of the first because #1s motion would cool the track. They were wrong. It got a lot stronger than storm #1 and did some major damage to Todo Santos and that part of the peninsula.

I lost a palapa in #2s winds so I can attest to that theory not being written in steel. All I get from my Mexican neighbors and pals when I give them storm predictions from the internet is, A Poco.

rts551 - 8-26-2013 at 03:14 PM

The coop is my major source and they don't get too worried until it gets close.

BornFisher - 8-26-2013 at 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
8/26/13 Desde Bahía Asunción

My rain gauge measured 7-9/16" rainfall since Friday.

How much rain? I`m a bit confused here!

bajadogs - 8-26-2013 at 04:03 PM

I believe that's about seven and a half inches.

David K - 8-26-2013 at 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mexitron
Friends made it back from Seven Sisters area but got dumped on---I'm sure we'll see some pics.

Great to hear they got out... We know how difficult getting a rescue team in there will be since it is forbidden to post maps, or photos of any roads that go in that direction! The Area 51 of Baja (it doesn't exist on Nomad maps but EVERYONE knows about it)!!! :lol:

bajaguy - 8-26-2013 at 04:15 PM

They need a SPOT!!!

Quote:

Originally posted by David K

Quote:

Originally posted by Mexitron
Friends made it back from Seven Sisters area but got dumped on---I'm sure we'll see some pics.

monoloco - 8-26-2013 at 04:20 PM

It's a nice cool 82º with 8-10 mph NW wind off the ocean here in Pescadero.

DavidE - 8-26-2013 at 04:36 PM

Cut N Paste Discussion+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25N115W. SW-W FLOW COVERS THE WATERS
TO THE W OF THE ANTICYCLONE AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING 30N140W. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT W OF A LINE
FROM THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER THROUGH
20N120W TO 15N140W. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 108W N OF
14N INTO NW MEXICO. MAINLY EASTERLY/ZONAL WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE 1008 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
IVO IS NEAR 27N116W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY 8 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 60 NM AND 240 NM IN THE W AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW.
THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN.

WEAK AND BROAD 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 32N128W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SE-S TO NEAR 22N117W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
4 TO 7 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW WATERS...WITH SEAS
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT TONIGHT.

WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
14N123W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS WENT RIGHT OVER THE LOW AND
INDICATED ONLY MODERATE WINDS. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N134W. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS...LOCALLY STRONG...AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO
THE E DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS SHIFTING E WITH ITS PROGRESSION.

THE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH WED
HELPING TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SEAS ARE ALREADY 8 TO 9 FT FROM ROUGHLY 07N TO 12
BETWEEN 102W AND 107W AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
FRESH TO STRONG FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W BY WED
AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY

DavidE - 8-26-2013 at 04:47 PM

Hi Osprey,

Could you possibly recall the year of those events? Wouldn't mind reading a NOAA analysis, tracks, timing, associated with that. The "Fujiwhara Effect" is extremely rare so a close call is of interest to me.

Mexitron - 8-26-2013 at 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by David K

Quote:

Originally posted by Mexitron
Friends made it back from Seven Sisters area but got dumped on---I'm sure we'll see some pics.

Seven Sisters? Who said anything about the Seven Sisters? :lol:

vandenberg - 8-26-2013 at 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mexitron[/i

Seven Sisters? Who said anything about the Seven Sisters?

They're as elusive as the muslim martyrs virgins. :biggrin:

Udo - 8-26-2013 at 05:38 PM

You should have covered up your windows and doors like we did, two weeks ago.
I think everyone in town is too busy helping themselves and immediate neighbors.
Hopefully your windows and doors are OK.
You can probably call Jaime, the town carpenter, to make and install some window and door plywood... 011521-615 155 8890.
He is about 6 houses south of you.

Quote:

Originally posted by BajaLuna
Udo, we r still at home in WA right now, but will be leaving here on Sept 7th to head down to BA for 2 weeks.

If you need us to do anything, let me know.

And if anyone needs anything brought down, let us know, we should be in San Diego on Sept. 8th and 9th.

a little worried about our house in BA, hope all is ok!

stay safe, everyone!

Osprey - 8-26-2013 at 05:48 PM

David E, I'll run thru the last dozen or so year's tracks with some sites and see if I can find it. shouldn't be that tough if I can see the tracks cause they were in the very regular train the engine spawns and moves.

DavidE - 8-26-2013 at 05:56 PM

Pretty unusual event. My interest is 101% nerd. Steering currents, coriolis effect that year, sea surface temps, jet stream tracks. Still attempting to learn this stuff. I like my dart board to be as big as possible

Thanks!

DianaT - 8-26-2013 at 06:14 PM

If you remember, when you looked at our house, we already had all the boards made and marked by Jamie with the screws along side on a shelf in the bodega --- boards for all the windows and the sliding glass door. Along with that, we had wood put around the windows to make putting the boards up easier. BajaLuna has an inventory as to what was left at the house, and Jamie's phone number, so all that was needed was a phone call. She knows that Jamie has put them up when we have requested that he do so and we paid him our next trip down. One does need to watch the weather when they are gone, especially this time of year.

Quote:

Originally posted by Udo
You should have covered up your windows and doors like we did, two weeks ago.
I think everyone in town is too busy helping themselves and immediate neighbors.
Hopefully your windows and doors are OK.
You can probably call Jaime, the town carpenter, to make and install some window and door plywood... 011521-615 155 8890.
He is about 6 houses south of you.

Quote:

willardguy - 8-26-2013 at 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by rts551
ignore all those models. The AJAPTM knows better. I know another Amateur who thought that IVO was dead on arrival as well. I am watching the experts myself.

hey, give the AJAPTM a break! ten pages ago he predicted a large bubble of hot air out in asuncion. boy was he right! :lol:

DianaT - 8-26-2013 at 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by rts551
The coop is my major source and they don't get too worried until it gets close.

Hey, how can you trust their information. Have you forgotten that there are many crooks and not so honorable people working for the co-op in Abreojos? :lol:

[Edited on 8-27-2013 by DianaT]

rts551 - 8-26-2013 at 06:35 PM

no the co-op is ok...its the Nomad coop that I worry about.

woody with a view - 8-26-2013 at 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by David K
Great to hear they got out... We know how difficult getting a rescue team in there will be since it is forbidden to post maps, or photos of any roads that go in that direction! The Area 51 of Baja (it doesn't exist on Nomad maps but EVERYONE knows about it)!!! :lol:

sweet mother of god!!! i think he gets it!

Marc - 8-26-2013 at 06:52 PM

So, it's goodbye Mulege...again???

chuckie - 8-26-2013 at 07:03 PM

Nah..we are area 51.....like I said, I will never again try to inform people of potential bad weather....Mulege will never flood, the sun will always shine, the snook are coming back to the river, Rays will re open.....Price of beer will go down.....Damn, the sand is getting in my eyes.....

mulegemichael - 8-26-2013 at 07:36 PM

take it easy, take it easy...everything will be fine.....the stress of waiting one of these friggin' storms out is NOT fun...and the season is just beginning!!!...catch a couple big ol bulls and all the anxiety goes away, mr chuckie...enjoy our community and screw the naysayers..just my read.

55steve - 8-26-2013 at 08:06 PM

North of the border damage - this is Hwy 78 near Route 86 by the Salton Sea.

http://www.bdoutdoors.com/forums/showthread.php/511389-Do-be...

BajaLuna - 8-26-2013 at 11:43 PM

Ummm wow, I think that question by Udo was directed at me.

thanks Udo, Yes, we have already been in contact with who we need to be. I'll email you later about it, Udo!

Mexitron - 8-27-2013 at 05:26 AM

I'm amazed at the incredible amount of energy and precip the remnants of tropical storm can shear off---yesterday there was a 200 mile wide plume of tropical fetch stretching from Central Baja to Minnesota...is all that energy contained in the storm or had the storm commandeered a tropical jet stream and was redirecting it?

FOR MEMBERS ONLY LINK

DavidE - 8-27-2013 at 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by 55steve
North of the border damage - this is Hwy 78 near Route 86 by the Salton Sea.

http://www.bdoutdoors.com/forums/showthread.php/511389-Do-be...

YOU DO NOT HAVE PERMISSION YADDA MEMBERS ONLY BLABBA

Barry A. - 8-27-2013 at 03:24 PM

Just heard from my Brother-in-law that the de Anza Country Club north of Borrego Springs was partially flooded from a small 'flash flood' from Henderson Canyon behind the Club late Sunday. The de Anza CC is the oldest Club and residential area in Borrego Springs. The damage was substantial, but the cleanup is already in progress and things are not too bad.

The hacienda we stay in every year had water run thru it, front to back, and then out onto the golf course, but it was not that damaged as no rugs-------tile floor, and the water came thru one door and out another. Unfortunately, along the way it filled the swimming pool with mud---------(sigh). All WILL be repaired, tho, I am assured by the owner. (grin)

Desert living has it's risks----an accepted fact.

Barry

Ivo damage in Loreto

tehag - 8-27-2013 at 04:12 PM

Cleanup is in high gear in Loreto after Saturday's rain. The boat ramp is officially open, but. . .

Mulegena - 8-27-2013 at 06:10 PM

I understand the governor of Baja Sur is in Loreto today surveying the damage.

Mexitron - 8-27-2013 at 09:07 PM

Barry---Here's an article on Borrego and pics of the mess:

http://www.sea2mountainmedia.com/uploads/08.27.13dailyborreg...

Mexitron - 8-27-2013 at 09:38 PM

And now Invest 96E has formed right behind 95E with a similar track forecast...things are really percolating down there.

Barry A. - 8-27-2013 at 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mexitron
Barry---Here's an article on Borrego and pics of the mess:

http://www.sea2mountainmedia.com/uploads/08.27.13dailyborreg...

Thanks, Mexitron. Looks like it was even worse than I thought. Henderson Canyon behind the "Club" has not flooded like that for well over 20 years.

Barry

Bob and Susan - 8-28-2013 at 05:30 AM

hopefully the new stuff will head west and not north

[Edited on 8-28-2013 by Bob and Susan]

strm.jpg - 48kB

chippy - 8-28-2013 at 06:09 AM

^^^^^This is a wet one here^^^^
8 or so inches in 36 hrs.

19.2N 104.5W

[Edited on 8-28-2013 by chippy]

Mula - 8-28-2013 at 06:16 AM

Chippy - Where????

chuckie - 8-28-2013 at 06:17 AM

Where is here?

chippy - 8-28-2013 at 06:17 AM

Melaque, Jal.

Bill Collector - 8-28-2013 at 06:18 AM

It's raining in Buena Vista, BCS..gentle nice rain

chuckie - 8-28-2013 at 06:25 AM

Never rains in Mulege, but if it did it would be...

Chupacabra - 8-28-2013 at 06:27 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
YOU DO NOT HAVE PERMISSION YADDA MEMBERS ONLY BLABBA

Here are the pics from Bloodydecks:

chuckie - 8-28-2013 at 06:36 AM

That is one dum**** driver....

chippy - 8-28-2013 at 08:23 AM

oops

[Edited on 8-28-2013 by chippy]

shari - 8-28-2013 at 08:41 AM

Hi all...we still have no phone or internet but now have cell service...still drying things out and making modifications for the next tormenta...thanks to all who were concerned...pics later...hoping for intrtnet soon

DianaT - 8-28-2013 at 08:55 AM

Those pictures from Bloodydecks are very educational. Thanks.

Barry A. - 8-28-2013 at 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
That is one dum**** driver....

Ditto---------what WAS he/she thinking? People never fail to amaze me!!! In an hour or two, it would have all gone down, most probably-----a real Duh moment.

Barry

DianaT - 8-28-2013 at 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Barry A.

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
That is one dum**** driver....

Ditto---------what WAS he/she thinking? People never fail to amaze me!!! In an hour or two, it would have all gone down, most probably-----a real Duh moment.

Barry

Always a good idea to let someone else go first. :biggrin:

durrelllrobert - 8-28-2013 at 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DianaT
Those pictures from Bloodydecks are very educational. Thanks.

Yep, the driver of that truck should have seen them before he tried to cross.

BajaLuna - 8-28-2013 at 09:46 AM

thanks for the report, Shari! Glad to hear you are somewhat reconnected!

Stay safe!

monoloco - 8-28-2013 at 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Barry A.

Quote:

Originally posted by chuckie
That is one dum**** driver....

Ditto---------what WAS he/she thinking? People never fail to amaze me!!! In an hour or two, it would have all gone down, most probably-----a real Duh moment.

Barry

You can count on there always being at least one who'll throw caution to the wind. It does make for good entertainment while waiting for the water to recede.

RnR - 8-28-2013 at 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DianaT

Always a good idea to let someone else go first. :biggrin:

The other drivers WERE waiting for "someone else" to go first!!! :lol:

pappy - 8-28-2013 at 01:17 PM

witnessed the exact thing happen to a truck similar to that in catavina several years ago. long line of big rigs, pickups and cars on both sides waiting for water level to drop. apparently a guy in his pretty darn new chevy truck though he could make it. not! just like in that series of photos-swept right off into the deep water sied of the road. about a foot of his cab was all that was visible. ya think when you see water like that and even the big rigs holding off ya might want to exercise some patience....

willardguy - 8-28-2013 at 01:24 PM

squirt a little WD under the distributor cap and they'll be fine! :lol:

[Edited on 8-29-2013 by BajaNomad]

willyAirstream - 8-28-2013 at 01:35 PM

You can rest assured, in this day and age, if you do something stupid, it Will be captured by someone with a cell camera or video.

Shari, how are you coping?

Mulege is cool with a nice breeze, slightly overcast.

Udo - 8-28-2013 at 03:26 PM

Mil gracias for the short report, Shari...I know it took a little more effort and money to post what you did!

So sorry

redmesa - 8-29-2013 at 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BajaLuna
DANG IT! Just got news that part of our roof collapsed at our house in BA. Broken beam it looks like from the pictures we were sent, probably a drainage problem? Had a trip planned for 2 weeks from now to move all our stuff down there, looks like we need to be leaving sooner.

send us and our house some good mojo, please!

Not the way to have a new house christened. Hope your damage is minimal.

Bajaboy - 8-29-2013 at 07:55 PM

Quote:

That really sucks! Kids and I will be there the last week of September. If you're around, we'd love to meet you. In the meantime, I hope everything works out for you.

woody with a view - 8-29-2013 at 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Chupacabra

Quote:

Originally posted by DavidE
YOU DO NOT HAVE PERMISSION YADDA MEMBERS ONLY BLABBA

Here are the pics from Bloodydecks:

some people! i've heard it said, "stupidity should be painful!!!" hopefully, nobody died....

BajaLuna - 8-29-2013 at 08:03 PM

thanks so much, Baja boy! Can't wait to meet you all too!

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