Tropical Storm Warning for BCS for Hurricane Norbert

....the 'alternata forecast'**
....hmmm,,me's waking to a surprise,,,getting to know how tempestuous these things can be. Thankfully it sounds like the cat3 amp-up is reasonably short lived,,and the 'fans' seem to be helping keep Norbert on course.
...in looking at the smaller influences that steer the mass around,it seems the high pressure ridge is what's steering Norbert the most,,,,so perhaps any actions that enhance high pressure is what'll help now---perhaps open all fridges in baja,,turn on AC's will add a cooling,,densifying effect to the pressure zone,,,keeping Norby further offshore....this will particularly reduce the opportunity for precipitation on the Cortez column...Unique to this forecaster's memory is the small hitch westward that has developed about 1/3 way up the peninsula,,,this can only be attributed to a unique 'ascuncisharinomad' effect,,distinct to the area.Additional information from the 8am summary refers to this as
.... 'a more stable environment'...not sure if her hubby agrees(?)

...of course ,,there's a reason the pressure ridge weakens as we go towards the north--unfortunately a largely persistent release of -hot-air- over Ensenada has caused a break-down of the pressure ridge ,leaving Ensenada largely vulnerable to Norb's effect....it's only through the efforts of the more souther population that Norb's effect on the northerly areas will be mitigated.

...it is now safe to hang laundry in the lower portions of the southern area,,,although some 'rinse,repeat' is still to be expected.,but still important to 'tie up your horse' further north



The 'B.M.'** forecast.....''The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 7 knots. Norbert is forecast to be steered by the ascuncisharinomad flow around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the town of Ascunsion. In a 48 hours, the cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude westerlies and will begin to move northward and then northeastward. By then, Norbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone,having been dissipated by a sharp outward flow of hotair over northern baja , moving little in a weak low-level flow. There is high confidence in the short- term track forecast since there is a good guidance agreement. Beyond 3 days, global models either forecast Norbert to dissipate in situ near the west coast of the northern Baja California peninsula or
continue to move the system eastward as a weak low or a trough. The NHC prefers the former global model solution.''

...**disclaimer--I am not a meteorologist,,but I like to play one on the internet...call me 'baja meteorologist'

[Edited on 9-6-2014 by micah202]

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Norbert Sept 6 11:00am

Punta Pequeña/ San Juanico

The wall of the outer edge of Norbert is now visible to the South. Slight wind shift towards the South now. Satellite sites show it about 60 miles off shore but can't tell if that's from the center of the storm. Wind sock still flying and the gauge worked briefly and recorded 28mph average. Surprised it's so close and conditions are still fairly mild. These photos were from 15 min ago and it's now white-out with slight rain.





Looking across the Bahia San Juanico across the peninsula in the direction of Mulege and Loreto (towards the Right in the photo). Alan T. we're just now seeing Norbert effects and I would not plan to drive over here until it passes.



[Edited on 9-7-2014 by oladulce]

...interesting and well detailed report!...it really confirms accuracy of this site I'm following ... http://passageweather.com/#
....30-40mph winds isn't surprising ....consistant with intensity/distance forecasts.....

it's saying Asunción should expect ~30-35mph this eve---a marked improvement over earlier readings,,,,and there's an amazing left-hook and dissipation overnight.....easing my concern for sunday morning!
....the 'asuncisharinomad's more stable environment' is coming into effect !!

........'oladulce'.......the bottom photo--you're facing east,,(L is north)??--I think I can see your place on google earth....try giving a wave!



O.m.g.....I realize I've -really- been -battering- the correct spelling for Asunción--my apologies....let's hope that's the worst battering you folks get!!



[Edited on 9-6-2014 by micah202]

.....I'm beginning to think you've already got through the worst of things--here's 'hoping'

Ok so we are putting up some plywood on some windows...just in casee! Here are a few photos from last night and this morning. It is blowing about 30 plus from the east now and hot.





lets hope these palms are here tomorrow morning! the waves came over the bank again last night and this afternoon the seas are really building...more at 11!





this was a good place NOT to build a house....eaten by a storm a few years back.



these folks will be plenty nervous



the wave watchers last night



the latest out here at the point...a washing machine.


[Edited on 9-6-2014 by shari]

[Edited on 9-6-2014 by shari]

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 21
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014

...NORBERT WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER COOL WATER...


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT WILL CONTINUE MOVING PARALLEL TO
AND WELL OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...
95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...
AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

Keep up the reporting! Glad to hear of no major damage...

....incredible how on-the-edge that all was--just ~10 miles further inland and it likely would have been a rather different story!!

...I'm really curious to know which high tide was most on-the-edge???

Mulege area micro-climates

.
....it's been really interesting to hear details of this,,learn 'bout the beast and correlate with various tracking tools available...I was also able to pass some of the photos and observations up the line to others who storm-watch---it's not like anything can effect what big-mamma nature would do,,but maybe,just maybe.......
.......whether it be the 'fans',,,or not attempting fate with hanging laundry,,,opening fridges too help maintain the pressure ridge,,the Asuncisharinomad effect of stability or perhaps hope and/or prayer.....I like to think that -something- was accomplished on these pages more than the usual exercising of internet obsessions.

....any time I spend on Baja in particular wakes me to remember how I'm just one speck of sand--once a part of a tall mountain,,once a long rolling hill,,,sometimes part of the hourglass of beach-sand,,,,and all too often-nothing more than a speck of......'dust-in-the-wind'

also want to travel to Scorpion Bay

Tksurf and Zola

welcome to the board ,

I wouldn't put off your itinerary but just in case I would be prepared to hole up along the way just in case .
These tormentas are common and the locals can get you around any obstacles quick

Be flexible , safe , unhurried and have fun

Give us a report when you can

With surf pics please , no gps

ps , its all sand , wet stuff soaks in quick, just be smart about it , this has been a low rain event, savvy?

[Edited on 9-8-2014 by KaceyJ]

HWY 1

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 23
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014

...NORBERT CONTINUES SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TOMORROW...


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

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Asuncion laundry report...it's a no go as there are still rain cells hanging about but the winds are decreasing to around 15-20...cloudy with some minute blue patches here and there. We are cleaning up sand and cutting back ruined plants that are now all withered up...boards off the windows today and finishing up working on putting together a little storm video.

Looks like Oscar might favour the gulf side. For you surfer dudes planning to go to San Juanico...the highway is open so far and I bet the north road will be OK in a few days but the thing is that Oscar may dump more rain by the weekend so keep that in mind...surf might be mushy or epic... All depends on how much rain they get in the next couple days in Baja norte. The arroyos start running fast but empty just as fast.

Quote:

Originally posted by greengoes Quote: Originally posted by EnsenadaDr Just took my laundry in from what started out to be a beautiful sunny warm day. The clouds are rolling in, the skies are getting grey and ominous....I am close to Ensenada.

The maps Doug just put up show Cataviña in the line of fire. Guess the bog near Mission Santa María will get recharged! Flash flood on the Gonzaga Bay side are possible. The foundations for the new Hwy. 5 bridge may get a test?

Or, it may be all dry before getting there?

Taken just a few minutes ago...



[Edited on 9-8-2014 by David K]

...the weather-underground images do the same updating.
....models predict the winds to totally drop before the thing goes anywhere---methinks precip is a different story,,,there should be a marked effect on sources of 'hot-air' coming from the border regions over the next few days