BajaNomad

HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAJA - ODILE - AFTERMATH

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chuckie - 9-15-2014 at 05:02 PM

No news from Mulege for a while.....not a good sign...

Gulliver - 9-15-2014 at 05:09 PM

One microondas tower twisted out of line or no power would be enough. The power went down to the web cam at 15:43 so that's possibly when everyone went dark. If I were there with my ham rig I would keep you posted. Ha!!!

A long muggy stormy night coming.

Pescador - 9-15-2014 at 05:23 PM

We have had strong winds all afternoon in San Bruno, but the rain has never reached the levels that we expected. Lots of wind but we even have electricity and internet. Looks like Cabo got really hammered as well as pics from friends at La Paz.

Bob and Susan - 9-15-2014 at 05:43 PM

on the bay in mulege...
643pm 9-15

really windy
more water than ever
the waves are about 5 feet

really windy

SharonT - 9-15-2014 at 05:48 PM

Regarding Mulege, my husband Bob spoke to Raphael Cuesta via cell phone at 5:45pm Pacific. Power and regular phones are out, but his cell phone is still working. Raphael says that winds are high (100 mph?) and tin roofs are flying around everywhere. It is said by the ranchers that the water is on the way down the hill, river is not flooding now, but they feel it is imminent, we will just have to wait and see.

Kgryfon - 9-15-2014 at 05:48 PM

This is just making me feel sick to my stomach.

EngineerMike - 9-15-2014 at 05:48 PM

I was going to fix myself a hurricane. Went online for the recipe:
1 oz vodka
1/4 oz grenadine syrup
1 oz gin
1 oz light rum
1/2 oz Bacardi® 151 rum
1 oz amaretto almond liqueur
1 oz triple sec
grapefruit juice
pineapple juice
No hurricane for Mikee, them days is overrrrrrr! Maybe a martoonee. While I read my insurance papers.

Whale-ista - 9-15-2014 at 05:57 PM

Still my favorite view of the wind. If that Eye stalls out over the Central Ridge there will be gully washers for days

On the bright side: I bet the wildflowers next spring will be unbelievable.

And there will be lots of people working to rebuild the damaged areas which actually might be good for employment.

Wind map

[Edited on 9-16-2014 by Whale-ista]

mulegemichael - 9-15-2014 at 06:02 PM

if i was there mikey, i would double up on the vodka!.....see ya soon, neighbor!....sheeeeesh!....have we been down this road before?....sheeeeesh!

DENNIS - 9-15-2014 at 06:06 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by mulegemichael
have we been down this road before?....sheeeeesh!



Ohhh yeah.

BajaNomad - 9-15-2014 at 06:15 PM

HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
500 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...ODILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...
...FLOODING THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 111.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.80 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...AND TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

odile-mon-612p.jpg - 50kB

SFandH - 9-15-2014 at 06:26 PM

Any news about the houses in Pescadero on the beach near San Pedrito and/or El Litro trailer park in Todos would be appreciated.

Thanks

[Edited on 9-16-2014 by SFandH]

Bajagypsy - 9-15-2014 at 06:42 PM

Hoping everyone is safe. Our thought are with everyone.

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2014 at 07:01 PM

It is uncanny how quiet these towns get on the internet after the storm gets there:(

BajaNomad - 9-15-2014 at 07:12 PM

.

emergency-contacts-odile.png - 47kB

Bob and Susan - 9-15-2014 at 07:18 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
It is uncanny how quiet these towns get on the internet after the storm gets there:(


out here on the bay in mulege its sure NOT quiet

holy cow...we wont be sleeping much tonite

no end in sight to the wind or the rain

if you own something down here schedule a trip...wow

cj5orion - 9-15-2014 at 07:20 PM

anyone in the B OF LA ?

mulegemichael - 9-15-2014 at 07:20 PM

the reason they are quiet bruce, is THERE IS NO POWER...sheesshhhh...get a f'''ing clue....that's why you moved away!

mulegemichael - 9-15-2014 at 07:22 PM

thanks bob; we are on our way down with "grits and such"....i'll swim across the gulleys just north of GN like i always have....see ya in a week or so...wish me luck. m.

EngineerMike - 9-15-2014 at 07:26 PM

Yes Michael, been here before, done that before, gunna do it again, cha, cha, cha.
Good news these days is that Muleginos know to fear the flood. I just hope the wind dies down, or a lot of Mexicanos will lose their lamina roofs like in Jimena. Sounds like that's the case low down the Peninsula judging from sparse damage reports. Reports I got are that most of the Mulege river-side houses are cleared out. So it'll be limited to clean up, electrical re-work, power wash & paint, and re-organize everything we own. Again. There'll be a some structures in the Mulege gorge that will wreck up from flood water. I hate to think about Orchard folks again, and Stulehenge.
There's folks that will be in much worse shape than us w/only 8ft of muddy water thru the house.

This'll be a full scale, real time test of the government drainage improvements in the valley west of Mulege for sure.

[Edited on 9-16-2014 by EngineerMike]

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2014 at 07:30 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by cj5orion
anyone in the B OF LA ?



thanks Bob, stay safe, and we will be all night checking here for updates.

pacificobob - 9-15-2014 at 07:33 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SFandH
Any news about the houses in Pescadero on the beach near San Pedrito and/or El Litro trailer park in Todos would be appreciated.

Thanks

[Edited on 9-16-2014 by SFandH]

i have been told san pedrito took it hard from midnite to 5 a.m. lots of damage

Motoman - 9-15-2014 at 07:33 PM

Time to call the insurance agent.

Spearo - 9-15-2014 at 07:33 PM

I am awaiting for more reports from friends in Pescadero but it has been very quiet. Cell service is almost nonexistent. From what I have heard the damage is extensive, bridge is out at Elias Calles, no power, no water, people are hurting.

I'm just sitting here feeling impotent.

If you can make the trip when the road opens up bring things people will need and give freely. Our friends need help.

shari - 9-15-2014 at 07:34 PM

People are busy with all hell breaking loose and beginning to get their libes back in some kind of order. I spoke to Juan awhile ago briefly because things were getting hairy and they are in for a very long arduous night. I feel all of your anxiety! Stay safe amigos

Bajagypsy - 9-15-2014 at 07:36 PM

Thanx Shari, was just going to ask if there was any word on Asuncion.

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2014 at 07:41 PM

Bob and Susan I think you are the only ones still online In Mulege. I looks like the eye is right over you now, I hope you are alright.

woody with a view - 9-15-2014 at 07:54 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by cj5orion
anyone in the B OF LA ?


messages not being returned yet.

SFandH - 9-15-2014 at 08:00 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by pacificobob
Quote:
Originally posted by SFandH
Any news about the houses in Pescadero on the beach near San Pedrito and/or El Litro trailer park in Todos would be appreciated.

Thanks

[Edited on 9-16-2014 by SFandH]

i have been told san pedrito took it hard from midnite to 5 a.m. lots of damage


I was afraid of that. I have some very old friends in the area. I'll be heading down next month if the roads are good.

Desertbull - 9-15-2014 at 08:05 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by woody with a view
Quote:
Originally posted by cj5orion
anyone in the B OF LA ?


messages not being returned yet.


My friends in LA Bay are reporting little breeze and no rain yet but they can see it coming...

woody with a view - 9-15-2014 at 08:19 PM

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/USAZ0275

drag the map and click "play"

and yet another reason not to watch TV

captkw - 9-15-2014 at 08:23 PM

Today after talking to 19/20 folks up here (Monterey ca.) no one around here knows anything about Odile !! Sheeesh !! I mean Nothing,,Nada, no one,No clue at all...Rather a eye opener to say the state of mankind imo !! prayers to B.C.S

BajaNomad - 9-15-2014 at 08:30 PM

TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...ODILE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 112.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

odile-mon-822p.jpg - 50kB

frizkie - 9-15-2014 at 08:34 PM

Lotsa people talking about it in BC Canada it's all over the news!! Goes ta show ya. Heard my place in El Chorro fared pretty well...That's why I'm inland.

frizki

captkw - 9-15-2014 at 08:41 PM

Hola,,You have a place in El Charro ?? then you must know me !! Any how,glad the kanucks are up to date !! Its mind blowing to me that folks here in cali are clueless...But,, I heard that many times over the years !! LOL:wow:

EngineerMike - 9-15-2014 at 08:56 PM

Report via email from Rochelle in her house on stilts in the Oasis, Mulege at 6:30 local time, 5:30pdt:
Wind blowing sideways at times so dense she can't see the river (less than 100ft). Water has breached the ditch next to Meza's field & is flowing in a 2ft sheet across the park toward the river. Water is just over the road to Loma Azul, which means no true flood level by that time. Lots of debris in the river & it's rising.

Sparetimewanted - 9-15-2014 at 09:06 PM

Anybody have any update on Lopez Mateos?

Bruce R Leech - 9-15-2014 at 09:10 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by EngineerMike
Report via email from Rochelle in her house on stilts in the Oasis, Mulege at 6:30 local time, 5:30pdt:
Wind blowing sideways at times so dense she can't see the river (less than 100ft). Water has breached the ditch next to Meza's field & is flowing in a 2ft sheet across the park toward the river. Water is just over the road to Loma Azul, which means no true flood level by that time. Lots of debris in the river & it's rising.


Thanks Mike I will be waiting for any and all info

bajabuddha - 9-15-2014 at 09:15 PM

10:00 pm MDT storm is now down-graded to a Tropical Storm, means wind damage will be lessened, but rain and flooding is still the worst issue. Mulege is still in the 'eyewall' backlash, and I will guestimate the river is going to keep rising until daybreak. Bless all in the path, I hope the gal in the house with the stilts stays safe. Bahia LA is still ahead, and Gonzaga hours after that. Hopefully the storm will turn towards the east soon and maybe Gonzaga will get a little break... Buena suerte.

shari - 9-15-2014 at 09:23 PM

I imagine things are rough in Lopez Mateos too. Asuncion is now incomunicados... Cell service went out when I was talking to Juan...dang it all.

BajaRat - 9-15-2014 at 09:38 PM

Convection appears to be increasing as the center gets back on the SOC near Mulege.
Our hearts are with BCS

m923a1 - 9-15-2014 at 09:41 PM

I know this is all still unfolding, and there are people still in harms way, so this may not really be the best time or place to post this, but...

My brother and I and our wives were planning on driving to Mulege this February for two weeks. Now it looks like there might be a huge cleanup going on that will probably last for months and years to come. Rather than cancel our trip, does anyone have suggestions for a humanitarian group or effort that we might be able to get involved with? (even if just to bring donated items or consumable goods). We were planning on driving two mostly empty Suburbans. Definitely don't want to show up as vacationers and use resources while there are people just trying to rebuild their lives, but then again, maybe that's the best way to help out.

My extended family (who are mostly dentists and dental hygienists) have been traveling to mainland Mexico for years doing charitable work, but unfortunately I don't have a skill that is suited really (who wants an IT guy to show up after a hurricane).

This all might be a moot point if highways and roads are washed out for the foreseeable future.

If nothing else, we're praying for the safety of everyone down there and hope the reports of very little or no loss of life hold out.

Gulliver - 9-15-2014 at 09:52 PM

The orphanage in LaPaz or other places? Anyone have contact info? They will need everything. Schools?

By the time you head down, I suspect the infrastructure will be mostly back together. Oddly enough, one of Baja's needs which we can and do help with, is for us to spend money. The tourist industry has taken terrible hits in recent years. Thus your coming down is more likely to help than hinder.

bajabuddha - 9-15-2014 at 09:52 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by m923a1
I know this is all still unfolding, and there are people still in harms way, so this may not really be the best time or place to post this, but...

My brother and I and our wives were planning on driving to Mulege this February for two weeks. Now it looks like there might be a huge cleanup going on that will probably last for months and years to come. Rather than cancel our trip, does anyone have suggestions for a humanitarian group or effort that we might be able to get involved with? (even if just to bring donated items or consumable goods). We were planning on driving two mostly empty Suburbans. Definitely don't want to show up as vacationers and use resources while there are people just trying to rebuild their lives, but then again, maybe that's the best way to help out.

My extended family (who are mostly dentists and dental hygienists) have been traveling to mainland Mexico for years doing charitable work, but unfortunately I don't have a skill that is suited really (who wants an IT guy to show up after a hurricane).

This all might be a moot point if highways and roads are washed out for the foreseeable future.

If nothing else, we're praying for the safety of everyone down there and hope the reports of very little or no loss of life hold out.

Stay tuned here for the next few days/weeks, there will be several posts of donation/help org's to contact. By February, most will be cleaned up with lots of newly landscaped real estate for sale CHEAP. The help org's will be forthcoming shortly. Thank you for your consideration, it will be needed.

BAJA.DESERT.RAT - 9-15-2014 at 09:53 PM

Hola Nomads,

as this seems to be the main site regarding odile, i am inquiring if anybody knows how the towns of miraflores and santiago fared in this disaster.

i have friends and family in these towns and i don't see any reports on them.

i have sent emails but apparently, there are problems for these communication avenues.

if you have info, please be so kind as to post them.

i thank you very much in advance.

BIEN SALUD, DA RAT

Gulliver - 9-15-2014 at 10:29 PM

If Santiago got a flash flood then Boca de la Sierra probably is a washout. The dam there was level full of silt 25 years ago.

Whale-ista - 9-15-2014 at 10:36 PM

This Facebook page has many photos of Cabo San Lucas

https://www.facebook.com/campos.josue/media_set?set=a.875810...

[Edited on 9-16-2014 by BajaNomad]

EngineerMike - 9-15-2014 at 10:50 PM

m923a1- roads will be out for a while, but transportation will be restored within a few days via dirt/gravel bypasses so trucks & busses can get thru as well as passenger vehicles. Even if its a bridge out, there will be a bypass.
By February the cleanup will be on an as-funds-are-available basis for locals, and as-time-to-mess-w/it basis for us part-timers. I'm guessing there will be multiple threads on relief.
Mulege isn't likely to lose too many homes outright. But other areas probably have based on reports so far. Tarps & sheet plastic will be needed right away where roofs blew off, but probably not past the first 60-90 days as repairs will be made to make buildings wind/rain resistant.

Gulliver's comment is pretty spot on- tourist money is some of the best help you can bring. In kind donations will be posted for sure as well once needs are known. Food will be a problem for the most indigent, as everything in their fridges will be ruined while power is out and there is little work this time of year to restock the larder. After I've talked to the abarotero, Saul, in Mulege once his phone is up, I'll let folks know if that's a need in Mulege.
Thanks for thinking about Baja!

MitchMan - 9-15-2014 at 10:50 PM

Anybody know how Chametla, Comitan, and Centenario are doing? Not much info anywhere on La Paz, certainly not many specifics and even fewer photo images. It would be great to hear from people in La Paz and those three towns mentioned hereinabove. You know, something like: is the road clear enough to travel from Centenario to the Malecon, do Centenario, Chametla and La Paz have any electricity and/or phone service, has there been a run on drinking water, maintenance supplies and meat at the stores or is there plenty for everyone? Any reports of injuries? Details on damage? You know that La Paz has 240,000 residents...I was hoping for more info somewhere...anywhere.

How about Los Planes and Agua Amarga? Not much info on Loreto either. Anybody heard anything?

The news in the States is even worse. You would think that the only city in the entire Baja was limited to the existence of the sole city of Cabo San Lucas.

Jonathan Roldan of Tailhunter gave a darn good interview earlier today, but that report stands completely alone. Thank heaven for Roldan and his clear, coherent, precise and comprehensive communication abilities.

[Edited on 9-16-2014 by MitchMan]

micah202 - 9-15-2014 at 11:14 PM

.

..ohh Mulege stay safe!!
......I really hope that everyone's giving an extra wide berth to the low laying areas--much more than would be necessary in the past.

.....until it's know what's been done uphill in terms of diversions etc....

....here's hoping and praying all be well!:yes:

BajaGringo - 9-15-2014 at 11:26 PM

There has been zero to nothing coming out of Mulege for a while now. On our facebook page I received a few messages from folks sharing some text messages they had received and I just found a few posts on twitter, basically all saying the same thing:

Mulege is flooding, water level continuing to rise with a lot of homes damaged or destroyed. People asking for help.

It paints a very dismal picture we still need to wait for further confirmation. At this point I ask that we keep all these people in our prayers...

Gulliver - 9-15-2014 at 11:31 PM

Could you please share these messages with us? I own a house in the Oasis and am looking for information.

Need to know whether to bring a whisk broom or a front loader.

micah202 - 9-15-2014 at 11:41 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by BajaGringo
There has been zero to nothing coming out of Mulege for a while now. On our facebook page I received a few messages from folks sharing some text messages they had received and I just found a few posts on twitter, basically all saying the same thing:

Mulege is flooding, water level continuing to rise with a lot of homes damaged or destroyed. People asking for help.

It paints a very dismal picture we still need to wait for further confirmation. At this point I ask that we keep all these people in our prayers...


....I -really- hope they haven't made actual 'hold-backs' back there :no:

Gulliver - 9-15-2014 at 11:55 PM

Oh I did the Mulege dance. Had Cliff and his crew gut the house including the appliances and store everything up top. Board up the front windows. The house has been through four floods already including seven feet high last time. It's sort of a wash and wear thing. Might bring my own pressure washer. it goes with living along the water.

Still I don't want to bug Leon until later in the week so any info would be appreciated.

BajaGringo - 9-15-2014 at 11:58 PM

A few of the messages were sent to me via PM on facebook, relaying text messages they had received from from friends/family in Mulege. Without their permission I am unable to share anything more than what I posted.

Here are a couple of the posts on twitter I found, basically supporting the content of the messages I received in facebook...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152710301477320&am...

If you can't get the direct link to work, just copy and paste the url into your browser...

[Edited on 9-16-2014 by BajaGringo]

Gulliver - 9-16-2014 at 01:16 AM

Thanks for the link. I'm sure their distress is very real.

I was hoping for more specific information but that will trickle out with time.

micah202 - 9-16-2014 at 05:47 AM

.
.....wow....the silence.....is.....deafening.


.....I can't say I've slept well.......don't imagine I'm the only one!


......may all be well!

Bob and Susan - 9-16-2014 at 05:49 AM

6:50am 9-16
on the bay in mulege

horrible wind and rain ALL night
no let up at all

still dark so too early to see any damage

we have never seen so much water

micah202 - 9-16-2014 at 05:52 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Bob and Susan
6:50am 9-16
on the bay in mulege

horrible wind and rain ALL night
no let up at all

still dark so too early to see any damage

we have never seen so much water



....well,,,I'm glad you've got power!!
...good to hear from y'all!

.....I'll bet you've got a story to tell:wow::o
...be sure to do what's most important though!!

.

Bob and Susan - 9-16-2014 at 06:01 AM

we will later...as soon as its dark we go inside
solar power and inverters...probably the only time i'll say I like them

the storm shudders are on the windows and the doors bolted shut

we are an island again as water is all around us ( we built up)

this is a lot more water than the last hurricane

i'm sure there will be lots of damage in town...it's a pretty bad storm

Dianamo - 9-16-2014 at 06:11 AM

The Weather Channel just stated that Los Cabos International Airport is closed until at least Oct 10! Has anyone else heard this or know anything more?

micah202 - 9-16-2014 at 06:14 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Dianamo
The Weather Channel just stated that Los Cabos International Airport is closed until at least Oct 10! Has anyone else heard this or know anything more?


...not a surprise if you've seen the pictures!

...I'm glad to hear that the military already has relief ships imminently arriving

chivatojoe - 9-16-2014 at 06:31 AM

Thanks Bob . So glad you both made it thru the night. Hopefully the worst is over for now and Polo stays west. You may be the only eyes and ears in the area so whatever you can report is greatly appreciated.

BajaNomad - 9-16-2014 at 06:41 AM

TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ODILE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 113.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

odile-tue-640a.jpg - 49kB

chuckie - 9-16-2014 at 06:46 AM

Word from Mulege via Zwat, unconfirmed, is that its BAD....Severe flooding, worst ever...Sad sad.....

azucena - 9-16-2014 at 06:50 AM

As far as Los Cabos airport, this morning the Weather Channel said it would be closed for a week.

vjfamily - 9-16-2014 at 07:00 AM

Los Cabos airport information from the Southwest webiste.

http://www.southwest.com/html/advisories/swa_travel_advisory...


Customers traveling to/from Cabo San Lucas/Los Cabos, MX (SJD) beginning Sunday, September 14 thru Monday, September 22 are eligible for flexible accommodations.

We have learned that the airport facilities in Cabo San Lucas/Los Cabos, MX (SJD) are closed through Monday, September 22 to evaluate infrastructure damage from Hurricane Odile. We will update our information as it becomes available.

Please call 1-800-435-9792 to speak with a Customer Service Representative to make changes to your itinerary.

For specific flight information, please check Flight Status Information.

Customers holding reservations for a flight that is cancelled may request a refund for an unused ticket/travel itinerary.

Updated: 9/15 5:25PM CT

shari - 9-16-2014 at 07:03 AM

Really appreciate ANY reports so a huge thank you Bob and Ron. So much devastation, it is hard to process it all. I womder what the best way to get info will be. Sure wish more people had ssb radios like the old days. So please post any info you have.

wakemall - 9-16-2014 at 07:09 AM

I look forward to additional detail and information on Loreto. It will probably take some time to restore the power and methods of communication.

EngineerMike - 9-16-2014 at 07:39 AM

I'm betting a dollar Cabo airport is open way sooner than that. 2 weeks tops, probably sooner. Won't be business as usual but they'll get open, life in lowest Baja depends on arrivals & departures. Ditto w/La Paz airport.
I don't know where Baja Bush Pilots will stage from, but runways will be cleared & repaired so they can work from towns out to the folks in the outback that will be stranded due to out of the way roads that are impassable. I'm sure they are reving up for recon right now, pending word that airstrips & gas are available.

Of the two twitt's referenced by BajaGringo, one is from the mainland, the other non-specific as to location. I'm not raising either Mexican or American cell phones in Mulege yet this a.m. so power is out & the cell tower's batteries drained. Not sure how long that situation will persist.

I absolutely cannot believe the dead silence from La Paz?????????? It looked like the storm track hit between Cabo & San Jose, trended N.E., & ran right over LP.

ElCap - 9-16-2014 at 07:41 AM

This is a quick copy & paste from the Baja Western Onion:

Additional Damage Report For La Paz/Todos Santos (Courtesy, Televisa) - Translated: LA PAZ, Baja California Sur, Sep. 15 2014.- Baja California Sur was declared a disaster area after category III Hurricane "Odile". La Paz, the state capital, is one of the most affected. The damage can be seen in the streets and neighborhoods in the center and the periphery. "We need to restore the most urgent thing first, and that is the drinking water" "the priority is to restore services," Marcos Covarrubias, governor of Baja California Sur said.

The most affected colonies in La Paz are:
•Agua Escondida
•Olas Altas
•La Pitaya
•El Calandrio
•Marquez de León
Classes in schools at all levels were suspended in La Paz, Los Cabos and Comondú and national celebrations were cancelled. The La Paz airport remains closed as are the seaports. The General Hospital "Juan Maria de Salvatierra" suffered damage in 50% of their structure and the electric power generating plant failed. The Central Health Centers in Todos Santos and Pescadero were closed because of damage.

The state government said the fuel supply will be restricted and will be dispensed only to hospitals, shelters and aid support programs. "Gasoline is available exclusively for official vehicles right now. Until we have electricity, there obviously will not be any gas stations working," said Marcos Covarrubias, Governor of BCS. More than 200 members of the Mexican Army are aiding families affected through Plan DN-III. Also, 150 federal police officers arrived to assist with security duties. This Monday "Odile" moved north of the state. In Ciudad Constitution and Comondú, about 2 thousand [persons affected by the storm] were reported.

Jose Guadalupe Ramirez Nunez Comondú city official, said [the town sustained] winds of between 150 and 190 kms. per hour, with downed trees, poles, and electrical wiring in the town. The wind destroyed greenhouses, severely affecting agricultural producers. Seven temporary shelters were opened, serving at least 7,000 people. Authorities said "Odile" moved north of the state with other [weather] phenomenon progresses in the Mexican Pacific. So far there have been no reported fatalities.

Original article en Español: noticieros.televisa.com/mexico-estados/1409/baja-california-sur-zona-desastre-odile

EngineerMike - 9-16-2014 at 07:57 AM

CFE will have moved forces into the area ahead of the storm, probably had them hanging around from Norbert. Whatever they mobilized won't be enough, and they'll be sending more as soon as infrastructure to move their trucks from the mainland is working. IIWThem, I'd commandeer a ferry just for trucks & poles.

This is going to be a huge hit for insurance companies, who will also send adjusters when travel conditions permit.

Bob and Susan - 9-16-2014 at 08:00 AM

on the bay in mulege...
858am 9-16

rain has stopped
lots of puddles but it drains to the sea easily

wind around 40mph so it drying everything quickly

some sun peaking thru the clouds
sunny tomorrow for sure

carlosg - 9-16-2014 at 08:12 AM

Do you have any idea how are people in town doing? was there a lot of flooding in the river area? do you think you guys will be able to drive out of your place to the hwy? how is "los naranjos" doing? we have been planning a trip to Mulege for some time now and were planning to drive down this next Thursday early morning, we hoped to stay with the Naranjos however now we're not sure how things are doing down there... we wish you and everyone the very best and a prompt return to a "normal" life...

Bob and Susan - 9-16-2014 at 08:18 AM

contact naranjos before you arrive...this is sept
they are on facebook
they will be busy as they take care of any problems quickly
the dirt road to the beach usually gets some damage

we wont be taking guests till the water in town is on


first pic...we are an island
the water flows out quickly

the sun is out here on the bay in mulege

firstpic.jpg - 43kB

Bob and Susan - 9-16-2014 at 08:25 AM

if you have "interests" in mulege you need to come asap...

please don't assume you can wait till oct or November to takecare of your problems...this is the WORST thing you could do

don't assume "others" are going to "fix" your problems without direction...
everyone is in the same boat

Pebbles - 9-16-2014 at 08:30 AM

I want to drive to Loreto ASAP. I have driven Baja many times but obviously fear complete road closure and/or gas availability.

Plan to leave Phoenix Wed, overnight in Ensenada. I know you nomads will not be afraid to tell me I'm an idiot and I appreciate your candor and advice.

I have purchased an Alaska airlines ticket on Friday but only God knows if they will fly and need my car in Loreto.

micah202 - 9-16-2014 at 08:34 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Pebbles
I want to drive to Loreto ASAP. I have driven Baja many times but obviously fear complete road closure and/or gas availability.

Plan to leave Phoenix Wed, overnight in Ensenada. I know you nomads will not be afraid to tell me I'm an idiot and I appreciate your candor and advice.

I have purchased an Alaska airlines ticket on Friday but only God knows if they will fly and need my car in Loreto.


...it's pretty safe to say....the quicker you want down,,the longer it will take.

Bruce R Leech - 9-16-2014 at 08:38 AM

Thanks Bob, you will be the only one reporting info for Mulege for some time I think and we will be waiting for every word.

rufflife - 9-16-2014 at 08:39 AM

Gas will probably be an issue... The following information was for La Paz, but I imagine it applies to much of BCS until things get sorted out.

"The state government said the fuel supply will be restricted and will be dispensed only to hospitals, shelters and aid support programs. "Gasoline is available exclusively for official vehicles right now. Until we have electricity, there obviously will not be any gas stations working,"

capt. mike - 9-16-2014 at 08:47 AM

From notes posted on BBP/BPI:

no rescue flights planned yet, waiting on better intel and requests from Red Cross. Need runways and there are not any. Mulege may have been hit harder than any one prior. Reports are skimpy but general consensus is heavy flooding and damage, town asking for help on all fronts. Assume river peaked again. Not conformed, communication mostly out.
Good luck all - this was a big hit.

EngineerMike - 9-16-2014 at 09:01 AM

Pebbles- with all good things intended, you are an idiot. Make a thorough list, buy all the supplies you will need for your own behalf, heavy on mosquito repellent, yard fogger, contractor bags, etc. Then check in several times a day for the road & gasoline status as it develops, as your list will morph. I've been thru this multiple times. No sense in going off half c-cked & becoming part of the problem.
You have to know where you are going to stay, where you will get potable water, and that gas is available. Otherwise, prepare & stay tuned.

Or maybe just hole up in Ensenada till resources are assured, then take off. Ensenada's nice.

Bob H - 9-16-2014 at 09:17 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by capt. mike
From notes posted on BBP/BPI:

no rescue flights planned yet, waiting on better intel and requests from Red Cross. Need runways and there are not any. Mulege may have been hit harder than any one prior. Reports are skimpy but general consensus is heavy flooding and damage, town asking for help on all fronts. Assume river peaked again. Not conformed, communication mostly out.
Good luck all - this was a big hit.


Wow, this is very sad news! How much more can this area take!?!?!?!

Bruce R Leech - 9-16-2014 at 09:18 AM

we just talked on the phone to family in Santa Roselia and they report les damage than other years. they said there was more wind and Les rain. power and phones in half the town.

Pebbles - 9-16-2014 at 09:33 AM

Gracias Engineer Mike. Very well put.
Problem is my wife is in Loreto and it has been almost 20 hours since I communicated with her.
Best advice may be to just wait until communication opens up before I do anything.

rufflife - 9-16-2014 at 09:43 AM

We feel your pain, Pebbles! Many of us are awaiting word from loved ones right now... Many areas are still without phone and internet. It is tough to wait!

However, sitting tight (until the emergency is over) is probably the best thing you can do.

bajabuddha - 9-16-2014 at 09:51 AM

With a storm of this magnitude, most of the highway infrastructure will be severely damaged in several places going south; it will take days to get the by-passes and mess cleared up, so travel is out for the time being. For those able to head south soon, now is a good time to start collecting goods; clothing, bottled water, blankets, children's clothing, canned food... get it ready now. Maybe try in the next few days to solicit community support. Keep in mind there will be some hassles at the border on what you can bring through even though it's for humanitarian aid; fellow nomads, please chip in on this as to save wait-time and embarrassment at the borders.

bajabuddha - 9-16-2014 at 09:52 AM

any BONA-FIDE aid organizations, bush pilots, dr.s w/o borders, etc, please post also where those who wish to donate can. A brief background description/resume would be helpful.

Trueheart - 9-16-2014 at 09:53 AM

Also, we had all better keep track of Polo, the new storm forming.

The projected path will unfold in next couple of days, and let's hope it isn't close in severity or path to Odile.

bajabird - 9-16-2014 at 09:56 AM

Any status on Loreto?
The airport?
I can not reach neighbors via phone or email

mtgoat666 - 9-16-2014 at 10:09 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Pebbles
I want to drive to Loreto ASAP. I have driven Baja many times but obviously fear complete road closure and/or gas availability.

Plan to leave Phoenix Wed, overnight in Ensenada. I know you nomads will not be afraid to tell me I'm an idiot and I appreciate your candor and advice.

I have purchased an Alaska airlines ticket on Friday but only God knows if they will fly and need my car in Loreto.


Based on early reports of damage, I would not drive yet. Roads probably damaged. Fuel supply probably iffy. Don't drive until you get reports that road and fuel situation is restored.
Given that communications are so damaged that damage reports are not coming in yet, you should not start driving yet....
It's not even been 24 hours yet, give it a bit of time, in absence of working phones, the news will come slowly.
What do the mexican news outlets report??

BCSTech - 9-16-2014 at 10:13 AM

FWIW, Today's Issue of the Baja Western Onion: http://www.bajawesternonion.com/

EngineerMike - 9-16-2014 at 10:17 AM

If history serves as indicator, attitude at the border will be lax for a few to several weeks for stuff claimed as donations & repair items. The regular exemption is now $300, so that covers a lot of volume to start. Specifics about where you are heading w/what intention for goods will likely get you across w/out hassle. I DO NOT RECOMMEND just running the border & hoping for the best.

Stop at Declaracion & tell them what you have & where it will go. Get the officer's name if s/he lets you thru w/out paying & getting a receipt on an otherwise duty load. If you get pulled into secondary you can drop the name & state you were cleared by that officer as your goods are for hurricane relief. Helps also if you can substantiate your destination; I have business cards for the Mulege Scholarship Program, but a copy of a power bill or phone bill with your address in Cabo, La Paz, Loreto, etc. will prove sufficiently you are heading to BCS. FWIW, I do a spreadsheet w/all items, count, & their cost, plus the total dollar amount on board, and this makes declaration very speedy, friendly, and with a great result on average (maybe they think I'm nuts for declaring, who knows). Once we got waived thru w/out duty on a massive haul of Beenie-Babies & Hot Wheels cars, all new, which went to the Rotary/Bomberos Christmas party for rancho kids outside Mulege; I was flabbergasted, wife simply stated, "that officer is a mom."
If you don't declare, you risk losing your whole load &/spending a buncha time at the border & paying a steep fine.

mtgoat666 - 9-16-2014 at 10:18 AM

“Totalmente canceladas” las comunicaciones en BCS por “Odile”: Luis Felipe Puente
El coordinador nacional de Protección Civil de la Secretaría de Gobernación, Luis Felipe Puente ha informado este martes que las comunicaciones en las zonas de Baja California Sur afectadas por el huracán “Odile” están “totalmente canceladas”. Explica que hasta este lunes fue posible mantener el servicio telefónico porque había un cable de fibra óptica pero se rompió y ahora se carece del servicio de sistema de radio celular y líneas directas.
“Fue un gran huracán, entró directamente a la zona de Los Cabos, pasó muy pegadito a la zona de La Paz, todavía no llegamos a Mulegé y Loreto”, detalló.
El Coordinador indica que esta mañana inició operaciones el puente aéreo de San José del Cabo para brindar apoyo en el desalojo de turistas con equipo de la Fuerza Aérea y Armada de México.
Agrega además que el Secretario de Gobernación lidera el grupo del Comité Nacional de Emergencia que coordinará la ayuda en Baja California Sur, y en el que participan los titulares de Conagua, Turismo y SCT; también se prevé que el presidente Enrique Peña Nieto visite esta tarde la zona afectada por el huracán “Odile”.

mtgoat666 - 9-16-2014 at 10:24 AM

Mexican military starting airlift to get tourists out

http://mexico.cnn.com/nacional/2014/09/16/huracan-tormenta-t...

Dianamo - 9-16-2014 at 10:32 AM

OMG, new video on the Weather Channel is unbelievable! I feel so helpless and heartbroken for everyone on my beloved Baja.

mtgoat666 - 9-16-2014 at 10:45 AM

Saw news that something like only 3% of BCS has electric power. After seeing all the poles on the ground, I suspect it will be many weeks to restore power, months in some places. They will have to mobilize linemen crews and trucks from mainland Mexico to re string all the damaged transmission and distribution system.

Jaybo - 9-16-2014 at 10:46 AM

Not sure if this has been posted or not but 70 pictures of the damage:

https://www.facebook.com/georgina.bolanos/media_set?set=a.10...

Here is a Facebook group about the damage. You will have to join the group to post:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/727074667339978

So horrified at the devastation my thoughts and prayers go out to everyone affected. :no:

Jaybo - 9-16-2014 at 10:52 AM

Being spanish challenged, goats post about communications:

" Totally Cancelled " BCS communications by " Odile " : Luis Felipe Puente
The National Coordinator of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Interior, Luis Felipe Puente reported Tuesday that communications in areas of Baja California Sur affected by hurricane " Odile " are " completely canceled ." He explains that until Monday was possible to keep the phone service because there was a fiber optic cable but now broke and no service cellular radio system and hotlines.
"It was a major hurricane , came directly to the Los Cabos area , spent very pegadito to the area of La Paz , not yet arrived at Mulege and Loreto " he explained.
Coordinator this morning indicates that the airlift began operations in San Jose del Cabo to support the evacuation of tourists with Team Mexico Navy and Air Force .
He adds that the Secretary of Interior leads the pack of the National Emergency Committee to help coordinate the Baja California Sur, and the holders Conagua , Tourism and SCT involved ; is also expected that President Enrique Peña Nieto visit this afternoon affected by hurricane " Odile " zone.

Bruce R Leech - 9-16-2014 at 10:58 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Jaybo
Being spanish challenged, goats post about communications:

" Totally Cancelled " BCS communications by " Odile " : Luis Felipe Puente
The National Coordinator of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Interior, Luis Felipe Puente reported Tuesday that communications in areas of Baja California Sur affected by hurricane " Odile " are " completely canceled ." He explains that until Monday was possible to keep the phone service because there was a fiber optic cable but now broke and no service cellular radio system and hotlines.
"It was a major hurricane , came directly to the Los Cabos area , spent very pegadito to the area of La Paz , not yet arrived at Mulege and Loreto " he explained.
Coordinator this morning indicates that the airlift began operations in San Jose del Cabo to support the evacuation of tourists with Team Mexico Navy and Air Force .
He adds that the Secretary of Interior leads the pack of the National Emergency Committee to help coordinate the Baja California Sur, and the holders Conagua , Tourism and SCT involved ; is also expected that President Enrique Peña Nieto visit this afternoon affected by hurricane " Odile " zone.


I love Mexican news:?:
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