BajaNomad - Dog to Human Rabies Transmission Risk

Dog to Human Rabies Transmission Risk

cupcake - 5-16-2024 at 02:04 PM

Moved from General Baja Discussion:
https://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=99994&pa...

Quote: Originally posted by surabi

For sure odd behaviors in dogs or biting for no apparent reason should be cause for vigilance as far a rabies is concerned, but if there are no statistics for rabid dogs in Mexico, it's rather weird and disingenous for them to state that "Rabid dogs are commonly found in Mexico".

It just doesn't make sense that rabid dogs would be common in Mexico, yet the last known case of dog-human transfer was in 2006. You'd think if many dogs had rabies, someone would have been bitten by one in the last 18 years.

[Edited on 5-16-2024 by surabi]

The CDC can be expected to have data and statisitcs that might not be available to the general public via the internet. Also, their definition of "commonly found" might be different than yours or someone else's.

I think it is very possible, even likely, that someone in Mexico has been bitten by a rabid dog in the last 18 years. The reason they did not die is because their life was saved by post-exposure rabies vaccine.

Statistics on numbers of confirmed dog rabies in Mexico is not easy to come by. This linked article, published September 2021, is interesting. I believe it shows the continuing importance of post-exposure treatment. Excerpt below link:
https://www.theyucatantimes.com/2021/09/yucatan-has-not-regi...
"He warned that there are many dogs that roam the streets throughout the State, not counting the animals that have “a semi-calf life”, whose irresponsible owners do not bother to vaccinate them...He warned owners that a dog should be suspected of having rabies when it bites for no reason, as well as when it shows changes in its habitual behavior, as well as not recognizing its master, and refusing to eat or hide...In Yucatán, a total of 1,677 dog attacks have been registered as vaccinated against rabies this year, which shows an increase of 10.8 percent compared to the previous year, when the sum was 1,514."

[Edited on 5-17-2024 by cupcake]

surabi - 5-16-2024 at 06:57 PM

If the CDC had data and statistics on dog rabies in Mexico, why would it be a big secret? I suspect they don't have that data, which would rely on Mexican data.

I did read that info about vaccines incorrectly, though. The way it is written, it sounds like there were all those cases of dog bites from rabies vaccinated dogs, but I guess it means the humans received a rabies vaccine because the dog may have been rabid.

surabi - 5-17-2024 at 12:48 AM

Unless you know the dog has been vaccinated against rabies, or the dog is tested to make sure it isn't infected, I sure wouldn't take a chance just because the risk is "really low". Rabies is fatal and the symptoms before you die are horrific. And once you are infected, it's too late.

They used to treat humans who were bitten with a long needle shot in the abdomen, which was said to be quite painful, but now it's just a series of shots in the arm.

cupcake - 5-17-2024 at 12:14 PM

Quote: Originally posted by surabi

If the CDC had data and statistics on dog rabies in Mexico, why would it be a big secret? I suspect they don't have that data, which would rely on Mexican data.

I did read that info about vaccines incorrectly, though. The way it is written, it sounds like there were all those cases of dog bites from rabies vaccinated dogs, but I guess it means the humans received a rabies vaccine because the dog may have been rabid.

I am not sure you read it incorrectly. I do read it as meaning that 1,677 people in the Yucatan, in the year 2021, were vaccinated for rabies after being bitten by dogs, but that seems like a high number to me. Something may have been lost in the translation, but in any event, I am not comfortable using that statistic to make a point at this time. I want to be accurate and not get tripped up by incorrect data interpretation.

[Edited on 5-17-2024 by cupcake]

AKgringo - 5-17-2024 at 12:21 PM

Regardless of the reporting requirements, or standards in place, I am sure that the results will vary wildly over the nation of Mexico.

If a rancher in a remote part of Baja puts down a rabid dog or coyote, I'm not sure that anyone outside his community would ever know it.

cupcake - 5-17-2024 at 12:33 PM

Quote: Originally posted by surabi

Unless you know the dog has been vaccinated against rabies, or the dog is tested to make sure it isn't infected, I sure wouldn't take a chance just because the risk is "really low". Rabies is fatal and the symptoms before you die are horrific. And once you are infected, it's too late.

They used to treat humans who were bitten with a long needle shot in the abdomen, which was said to be quite painful, but now it's just a series of shots in the arm.

In the case of dog bites, either make sure the dog is current with rabies vaccination, or observe the dog for 10 days. If the dog is still alive 10 days after the bite, then it could not have been infectious at the time of the bite. That in itself does not mean the dog didn´t have rabies at the time of biting someone, but it does mean it was not able to pass the rabies virus to the bitten person at that time. The incubation period of the rabies virus varies greatly from case to case. it can be as short as less than a week, or take months and even longer. However, the timeline of becoming infectious and then dieing, does not vary, hence the 10 day quarantine or observation period for dogs that bite someone. As soon as the rabies virus reaches the dog´s saliva, making it infectious, the dog will not live more than another 10 days. To give an example, a dog contracts rabies from another dog or a wild animal, because the dog has not been nor will be vaccinated against rabies. This dog will die of rabies, sooner or later. A month goes by and the dog bites a human, but the human is lucky because the rabies virus has not yet reached the dog´s saliva, so the human recieves no rabies virus from the dog. Another month goes by and the rabies virus reaches the dog´s saliva. The dog will then invariably be dead within ten days.

[Edited on 5-17-2024 by cupcake]

cupcake - 5-17-2024 at 12:46 PM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

Regardless of the reporting requirements, or standards in place, I am sure that the results will vary wildly over the nation of Mexico.

If a rancher in a remote part of Baja puts down a rabid dog or coyote, I'm not sure that anyone outside his community would ever know it.

I feel certain this is true. And, if a rural and or stray dog has rabies, it can die without anyone ever knowing about it.

cupcake - 5-17-2024 at 12:53 PM

Quote: Originally posted by JZ

Was riding dirt bikes in Sonora with my two boy. My youngest was about 10 and a dog ran out of no where and bit him.

The Mexican owner came down to the beach to apologize. I saw the dog and it was acting normal.

I was definitely freaked out and did a ton of research that night of what to do. At the end of the day everything pointed to the risk of getting rabies as extremely low, so I just cleaned it really well using our first aid kit.

I don´t want to be posting information that makes you or anyone feel bad. I have personally experienced the anguish a possible rabies exposure can cause. All knowledgeble medical people will tell you that until symptoms appear, it is never too late to receive rabies vaccination.

The chance that your son was exposed to rabies is extremely low. If you wish, you can still consult a health care specialist who is knowledgeable about rabies. Be aware that there are many health care workers who are clueless about rabies, in all countries.

[Edited on 5-17-2024 by cupcake]

AKgringo - 5-17-2024 at 01:03 PM

Quote: Originally posted by cupcake

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

I feel certain this is true. And, if a rural and or stray dog has rabies, it can die without anyone ever knowing about it.

My point was more toward pointing out that the WHO designation was founded from a data base with a lot of holes in it.

cupcake - 5-17-2024 at 01:13 PM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

Quote: Originally posted by cupcake

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

I feel certain this is true. And, if a rural and or stray dog has rabies, it can die without anyone ever knowing about it.

My point was more toward pointing out that the WHO designation was founded from a data base with a lot of holes in it.

That is how I took your post, and I wholeheartedly agree with you.

cupcake - 5-17-2024 at 01:36 PM

The link below leads to an article on recent rabies cases in Mexico. There is report of a rabid dog having had ´risky contact´ with a number of people. The report of this case can also be found online in English, but I have linked the Spanish version because it gives the added information of rabies confirmation for the dog and which rabies strain the dog contracted.

https://www.expomedhub.com/nota/sistemas-de-salud/como-prote...
¨Finalmente, en enero de 2023, se confirmó la presencia del virus rábico en un canino en el estado de Sonora, cuya caracterización antigénica identificada es la variante V.7 asociada al zorro gris. Actualmente se está dando seguimiento a nueve personas que tuvieron contacto de riesgo con el canino.¨

¨Finally, in January 2023, the presence of the rabies virus was confirmed in a canine in the state of Sonora, whose antigenic characterization identified is the V.7 variant associated with the gray fox. Nine people who had risky contact with the canine are currently being followed up.¨

cupcake - 5-17-2024 at 05:18 PM

I found a webpage that reports confirmed cases of rabid dogs in Mexico from 2007 to 2017. You can see the reduction over the years due to the vaccination campaigns. Ver Dettale - linkout to see details for each case.

http://www.cenaprece.salud.gob.mx/programas/interior/zoonosi...

I have not yet found data that estimates how many rabid dogs there would be for every confirmed case. My expectations are that there would be many that go unnoticed, many that do not make it to the statistics tabulations.

My reasoning for this is a comparison to the USA, where vaccination of dogs against rabies has been very successfully carried out for many years. Reported rabies surveillance for the USA in the year 2021 found 36 cases of dog rabies.
https://avmajournals.avma.org/view/journals/javma/261/7/javm...

There appear to be more dogs as pets in the USA but more dogs as strays in Mexico. Both countries have many millions of dogs. Both countries have many wild animal species which carry and transmit rabies. Mexico has the vampire bat, which is only just now starting to be seen as far north as the southern tip of Texas.

My estimate is that the number of rabid dogs in Mexico would be at least similar to the number in the USA, for any recent year. I would not expect the number of rabid dogs in Mexico, in a given year, to be appreciably less than the number in the USA for that same year. This is my estimation only for the most recent years, during the time of maximum benefit of Mexico´s vaccination campaigns.

[Edited on 5-18-2024 by cupcake]

surabi - 5-18-2024 at 11:25 AM

There aren't really accurate statistic for most diseases, be they dogs or humans. Because unless someone is ill enough to go to the doctor or hospital, those cases don't get counted.
During the height of Covid, Mexican medical researchers estimated the number of Covid cases to be 4-5 times higher than official stats. Almost every Mexican I know told me they'd had Covid, yet when I asked if they had gone to the doctor, or gotten tested, or reported it to the phone numbers that were set up for reporting, they all said no.