BajaNomad

Wind question Mindriff area

pescadorrr - 7-17-2024 at 09:25 AM

I have a question regarding wind patterns in the midriff area of the Sea of Cortez. We have been trying to get down to the islands south of Bay of LA but there has been a pretty consistent south wind pattern in place for over a month showing in Windy and Sail Flow. Is it normal to have a 10-15 knot organized wind out of the south for weeks at a time from June through the summer?
I do recall seeing a south wind the times I have gone down there, but just for a few days at a time. Not weeks. Could this be because of el
Niño? Can anyone tell me any other areas to keep an eye on like the wind in SoCal or the weather out of southern coastal Mexico that would help me understand what might cause this south wind on the Cortez?

Thank you in advance for any information.

cupcake - 7-17-2024 at 11:08 AM

https://www.thelog.com/news-departments/south-wind-shelters-...

I've no personal experience. The above linked website states that this time of year (summer) there is normally either no wind or wind from the south. The list of wind-shelters might be useful.

Tioloco - 7-17-2024 at 11:13 AM

I was on the water down south of LA Bay last week and the wind was by my estimate 10-15 mph out of the East. Created some swells but wasnt too rough.

AKgringo - 7-17-2024 at 11:37 AM

It could be related to the high pressure system that has parked over the Southwest for the last few weeks, causing record high temperatures in Northern California.

[Edited on 7-17-2024 by AKgringo]

mtgoat666 - 7-17-2024 at 12:32 PM

North winds are usually a winter thing.
This is getting to be hurricane season, so keep tabs on the long-range forecast…

David K - 7-17-2024 at 02:53 PM

HERE YOU GO: https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/bahia-de-los-angeles


Also good: https://www.eebmike.com/

RFClark - 7-17-2024 at 09:20 PM

The wind from the South in Summer is probably a part of the South West Monsoon.

pescadorrr - 7-17-2024 at 10:13 PM

Thanks for the great info everybody! 🙏🤙

JZ - 7-18-2024 at 12:15 PM

10-15 winds isn't bad at all.

Watch for thunderstorms. The closer you get to Sonora the more common they are.

bajaric - 7-18-2024 at 02:15 PM

The local commercial fishermen are usually pretty dialed in to predicting the wind conditions. It would not surprise me if they know how to use the internet to check for areas of high pressure up north or whatever to forecast when it is going to be windy. What exactly they would look for I do not know.

AKgringo - 7-18-2024 at 02:29 PM

That whole area around the north end of the Sea of Cortez has been running 115 to 120 degrees for a while now. Warm air rises, and the relatively cooler over the water rushes in, unobstructed by any mountains.

Don Jorge - 7-18-2024 at 02:29 PM

10 -15 out of the south on a summer afternoon in the Midriff is business as usual. Keeps it from being oppresively hot feeling too. It's the 20+ which makes it less comfortable. But at least either way running back to the Bahia it's behind you.

Everybody I know in Baja everywhere uses Windy.

AKgringo - 7-18-2024 at 02:58 PM

[rquote

Everybody I know in Baja everywhere uses Windy.[/rquote]

I like Windy, and use it frequently but sometimes it is slow to update their forecast. In particular, I was following it a couple of years ago and the forecast was still showing probable landfall of a tropical storm traveling up the Sea of Cortez somewhere near San Felipe.

Meanwhile, it was actually already onshore in Sonora.

BooJumMan - 7-19-2024 at 05:37 AM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  


I like Windy, and use it frequently but sometimes it is slow to update their forecast. In particular, I was following it a couple of years ago and the forecast was still showing probable landfall of a tropical storm traveling up the Sea of Cortez somewhere near San Felipe.

Meanwhile, it was actually already onshore in Sonora.


If you notice, Windy utilizes 5 different types of forecast models (ECMWF, HRRR, GFS, NAM and ICON). Those are the real computational models which then consumer applications present the data. People obviously like Windy because it presents it in a 2D animation, not to mention all the other bells and whistles.

Anyway, for long term forecasts, I like to use ECMWF and GFS and take an average of the two. GFS usually runs "hot" (stronger than anticipated winds and/or hurricanes). NAM (North American Model) is super high resolution and great for near term forecasts (1-3 days out).

Windy.app Pro vs Free Windy

Don Jorge - 7-19-2024 at 07:06 AM

Do you get what you pay for?

Maybe so, maybe so, as Jimmy Stewart used to say. Cut and pasted this comparison explanation from AI generated garble,

"The paid subscription to Windy.app, called Windy.app Pro, offers more features and more precise forecast models than the free Basic and Web versions. The paid version is ad-free and includes features like:

Forecast: 1-hour forecasts, 10-day forecast maps, and forecast updates at least four times a day
Maps: More detailed forecast maps, including all models and layers
History: 12-hour and 6-hour radar and satellite history, and radar and satellite archives going back one year
Planning: Route planner for viewing forecasts for an entire trip
Other: Unlimited favorite places and alerts, and satellite archive"

Someone I respect mentioned to me he had the upgraded version and used it a lot. I did the same after that conversation. It is much better than the "free" version. When your fishing friends in Baja find out you have the upgraded version you can expect regular calls every night on tomorrows forecasts.

BooJumMan man is an obvious weather nerd. A hat tip to the weather nerds who know how to glean info from the publicly available data and draw their own conclusions.

Back to topic, south winds at 10 -15 knots summertime in the midriff is quite normal.