mtgoat666 - 4-10-2025 at 06:30 PM
Last year we had La Nina and no hurricanes. This year we are back to neutral ENSO, so 2025 hurricanes may be more normal in frequency and
distribution. Hopefully a break in the drought is coming
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 10 April 2025
ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October 2025.
In March 2025, ENSO-neutral conditions returned, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakening in the central and east-central
equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The westernmost Niño index values were near zero, while positive index values persisted in the easternmost Niño-3
and Niño-1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened [Fig. 3], but negative anomalies continued in the central equatorial
Pacific, extending to 250m depth [Fig. 4]. A shallow layer of above-average subsurface temperatures continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
Low-level wind anomalies remained easterly over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central
Pacific. Convection was suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation
indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.
The IRI and North American multi-model ensemble indicate ENSO-neutral will continue through the summer [Fig. 6]. The forecast team also favors
ENSO-neutral, with chances well over 50% through summer 2025. Because of reduced forecast accuracy in the spring, the uncertainty increases at longer
time horizons, with a 43% chance of ENSO-neutral and a 38% chance of La Niña during November 2025 - January 2026 (chances of El Niño are under 20%).
In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October 2025 [Fig. 7].
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their
funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current
Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is
available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 May 2025.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/e...
[Edited on 4-11-2025 by mtgoat666]