BajaNomad

Gray Whale Population Declining

wilderone - 8-14-2025 at 10:21 AM

Very upsetting. I hope the trend reverses. Such a magnificent life cycle that we are fortunate to experience. Excerpts:

"The eastern North Pacific population of gray whales that migrates along the West Coast of the United States has continued to decline, with reproduction remaining very low. Two new Technical Memorandums from NOAA Fisheries’ Southwest Fisheries Science Center report the estimated population size and calf productivity in 2025.
The initial population estimate of gray whales, following an Unusual Mortality Event that ended in late 2023, suggested that their numbers may have begun to rebound last year. However, the most recent count from winter 2025 instead reveals a continuing decline. The new count estimates an abundance of about 13,000 gray whales, the lowest since the 1970s.
Only about 85 gray whale calves migrated past Central California on their way to feeding grounds in the Arctic earlier this year. That’s the lowest number since records began in 1994. Low calf numbers since 2019 indicate that reproduction has remained too low for the population to rebound.
…
Researchers in Mexico reported numerous dead gray whales early this year in and around coastal lagoons. Females nurse their calves in these lagoons in winter before beginning their migration north to the Arctic each spring. They also reported few gray whale calves, suggesting that many female whales may not be finding enough food in the Arctic to reproduce."

https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/eastern-north-p...

mtgoat666 - 8-14-2025 at 02:49 PM

David K - 8-14-2025 at 04:41 PM

Maybe ask Shari what she has observed?

surfhat - 8-15-2025 at 09:05 AM

Climate change is having much more impact in the Arctic than we see down here in the lower 48.

Losing the ice sheets compromises the algae growth on the underside of the ice which supports the main food source for gray whales.

Historically, the gray whales have been able to recognize when nature affects their food source and are able to choose to limit their breeding until things become more amenable to sustain more whales.

They have also been observed seeking other food sources when the ice sheets limit their main food source. Hope springs eternal that they do find alternate sources for food.

I welcome any corrections or additions from our much appreciated whale whisperer.

Daughter Sirena had at one time proposed tracking gray whales back to the arctic and back. I know there are trackers that can be glued onto their skin without negative effects.

I hope Sirena gets her wish one these days.

The Whale Magic magic is magical. Thank you Shari and Sirena.

Changes in the Arctic food chain?

AKgringo - 8-15-2025 at 09:24 AM

On a different, but related note, some species are thriving! I just got back from Anchorage, and longtime fishing friends and relatives were experiencing a record return of Sockeye salmon to the Keni River basin.

I don't know if they feed on the same diet as grey whales, but they share the same feeding grounds.

This over-abundance of Sockeye is happening while Chinook (King) Salmon fishing was shut down this year because of dismal returns to the same river.

[Edited on 8-15-2025 by AKgringo]

David K - 8-15-2025 at 09:38 AM

The climate has always been changing, along with everything else. I did message Shari about this post.
Can people accurately count every whale? This year the count was less or maybe the year before the count was inaccurate and counted too many? It will be curious if next year's count goes back up or not.

SFandH - 8-15-2025 at 12:19 PM

Gray Whale Population Abundance

https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/west-coast/science-data/gray-...



GrayWhale2025.jpg.png - 42kB

surabi - 8-16-2025 at 12:15 PM

Quote: Originally posted by David K  
The climate has always been changing, along with everything else.


What is your point in saying this, other than to try to discredit the unprecedented rapid climate change, mostly caused by human activity not seen before in recorded human history, and proven by pretty much all the world's scientists?

Your statement, repeated endlessly by every climate change denier, is pointless. Obviously everyone over the age of 10 who was paying attention in science class knows that the earth's climate has changed over billions of years. That is irrelevant to the issue of current rapid climate change, melting of glaciers, ice caps and icebergs, ocean warming, etc.and its effects on all living things.

LancairDriver - 8-17-2025 at 02:24 PM

The climate change argument is pretty well balanced among the
so called experts and the amateur climatologists, so best simply wait and see for the next hurricane, tornado, ocean level opinion or flood disaster to register your personal theory.

mjs - 8-17-2025 at 02:55 PM

The change is completely predictable. As long as you have a Sharpie.

latitude32 - 8-17-2025 at 03:10 PM

Quote: Originally posted by mjs  
The change is completely predictable. As long as you have a Sharpie.


yup, the magic marker.

wilderone - 8-17-2025 at 03:32 PM

Per the graph, after a high point in population in 1988, and then a precipitous decline just 6 years later in 1994, I Googled the question: this is an AI derived answer:

"The decline in the Pacific gray whale population in 1994 was primarily due to an Unusual Mortality Event (UME), linked to changes in their Arctic feeding grounds and subsequent malnutrition. While the population had recovered from whaling and was removed from the endangered species list in 1994, the UME was a period of increased gray whale strandings and deaths, primarily along the US Pacific coast and in Mexico. Researchers believe that localized ecosystem changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas, their main feeding grounds, impacted the availability and quality of prey (like amphipods). The changes in food availability led to malnutrition in the whales, affecting their ability to migrate and reproduce successfully."

So I supposed the situation in 2025 could reverse given that it seems due to the same reasons as in 1994, though the "changes" are specifically determined. ??

David K - 8-17-2025 at 08:57 PM

Quote: Originally posted by surabi  
Quote: Originally posted by David K  
The climate has always been changing, along with everything else.


What is your point in saying this, other than to try to discredit the unprecedented rapid climate change, mostly caused by human activity not seen before in recorded human history, and proven by pretty much all the world's scientists?

Your statement, repeated endlessly by every climate change denier, is pointless. Obviously everyone over the age of 10 who was paying attention in science class knows that the earth's climate has changed over billions of years. That is irrelevant to the issue of current rapid climate change, melting of glaciers, ice caps and icebergs, ocean warming, etc.and its effects on all living things.


Did you miss the news about the huge increase in Antarctic ice? The earth is in balance. But even if it was as bad as you want people to believe, what do you think will change the natural world? Will you go to China and demand they stop burning coal? Since that won't happen, are you just going to harass Americans? We are already one of the cleanest of the industrial giants. Do you have some magic solution? That would be great!!!

mjs - 8-17-2025 at 09:48 PM

Quote: Originally posted by David K  
Quote: Originally posted by surabi  
Quote: Originally posted by David K  
The climate has always been changing, along with everything else.


What is your point in saying this, other than to try to discredit the unprecedented rapid climate change, mostly caused by human activity not seen before in recorded human history, and proven by pretty much all the world's scientists?

Your statement, repeated endlessly by every climate change denier, is pointless. Obviously everyone over the age of 10 who was paying attention in science class knows that the earth's climate has changed over billions of years. That is irrelevant to the issue of current rapid climate change, melting of glaciers, ice caps and icebergs, ocean warming, etc.and its effects on all living things.


Did you miss the news about the huge increase in Antarctic ice? The earth is in balance. But even if it was as bad as you want people to believe, what do you think will change the natural world? Will you go to China and demand they stop burning coal? Since that won't happen, are you just going to harass Americans? We are already one of the cleanest of the industrial giants. Do you have some magic solution? That would be great!!!


A little research would show the US is not one of the cleanest, actually one of the worst.

Can't embed the chart so you'll have to use the link.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita

surabi - 8-17-2025 at 10:27 PM

Quote: Originally posted by David K  

Will you go to China and demand they stop burning coal? Since that won't happen, are you just going to harass Americans? We are already one of the cleanest of the industrial giants.


Where did you glean that nonsense from? Not only is it false, but the current administration is busily reversing all the progress made in the US designed to lower greenhouse gas emmisions, removing environmental protections, defunding green energy, and giving polluting big business free reign.

FYI China has been reducing their emissions and reliance on coal, even though their energy consumption has gone up, due to their expansion of wind,solar and nuclear energy.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-just-put-c...


Basically, almost every country in the world is on board with reducing greenhouse gases except the US under current leadership.

And wherever did you come up with that completely false "news" about Antarctic ice?

"Antarctic Sea Ice Hits Historic Low"

"In the summer of 2025, Antarctic sea ice reached one of its lowest levels on record, tying for the second-lowest minimum extent in 47 years of satellite observations, according to NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

On March 1, 2025, the annual summer low, sea ice coverage dropped to 1.98 million square kilometers (764,000 square miles) as shown in the map above. That’s about 30 percent below the 1981–2010 average of 2.84 million square kilometers (1.10 million square miles)."

[Edited on 8-18-2025 by surabi]

[Edited on 8-18-2025 by surabi]

[Edited on 8-18-2025 by surabi]

SFandH - 8-18-2025 at 07:28 AM

Quote: Originally posted by mjs  


A little research would show the US is not one of the cleanest, actually one of the worst.

Can't embed the chart so you'll have to use the link.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita


Really interesting webpage. Thanks