BajaNomad - Tropical Storm Priscilla

Tropical Storm Priscilla

pauldavidmena - 10-4-2025 at 03:07 PM

Reminding us that hurricane season isn't over, EP99 just became named storm Priscilla, currently a tropical storm off the Southwest coast of Mexico. According to models posted on Weather Underground, it doesn't seem to be a threat to Baja.

AKgringo - 10-4-2025 at 04:08 PM

I have been following the development of this system on Windy.com, and I have never seen such significant differences between forecast models, or such rapid changes within the same models!

Right now, the Windy ECMF model shows it coming ashore Friday morning with heavy rain north of Guerrero Negro. The GFS model shows it heading west.

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2025-10-10-04,...

[Edited on 10-4-2025 by AKgringo]

SFandH - 10-4-2025 at 04:44 PM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

I have been following the development of this system on Windy.com, and I have never seen such significant differences between forecast models, or such rapid changes within the same models!

Right now, the Windy ECMF model shows it coming ashore Friday morning with heavy rain north of Guerrero Negro. The GFS model shows it heading west.

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2025-10-10-04,...

[Edited on 10-4-2025 by AKgringo]

I have plans to drive to GN on Sunday, the 12th, and then to Mulege on the 13th. I'll be watching how this storm develops.

pauldavidmena - 10-5-2025 at 06:30 AM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

Weathernerds.org corroborates exactly what you're saying. The ECMWF ensemble shows some plots veering to the east and making contact with Baja.

The GEFS ensemble shows the storm staying west, away from Baja.

AKgringo - 10-5-2025 at 08:09 AM

The model I linked to yesterday has already morphed into a "no big deal" system. For a while it looked like rain would be an issue all the way across to the Sea of Cortez.

It could still make some interesting surf though!

[Edited on 10-5-2025 by AKgringo]

surfhat - 10-5-2025 at 11:29 AM

Most likely a non-event, but if anyone has ever had the gift to drive

through the Valle de Cirios when a super bloom is going on, you will be

forever grateful. I know I am. Forever.

Multi-colored desert flowers to the horizon demands a stop and a walk

among a scene so rare, and all too rare.

If there is still a place to breathe deep and rejoice, it is in the Valle de

Cirios.

A more pure air to breathe deep is hard to imagine and why this Baja lover cannot resist choosing to drive through this gift on my south.

Stopping at Catavina's Santa Maria hotel has now been added to my next adventure, super bloom or not.

May all Nomads have the all too rare opportunity to experience a super bloom in this magical desert location.

I have stated this previously, but if one chooses to camp on a side road near Catavina and is far enough off the roadway, you will experience a silence that will remain ever golden.

A silence so profound I could hear my own blood coursing through my veins.

It must have been my heartbeat resounding off of the huge house sized boulders that surrounded us.

It had to be more than the couple of shots of tequila around our campfire that

flickered off of the boulders that surrounded us. That was a vision of its own that special night.

One of these days I will dig some of these photos out to share with all of our Nomads that share the love of this special place.

My tech abilities are seriously lacking as the dinosaur I have become.

Peace, love of Baja, and so much more than just fish tacos is appreciated every day for what I have been given.

This gift has always come with nothing expected in return.

Any consideration for the locals goes much further than one can imagine. It costs

each of us so little and means much more that we do care for the locals.

Do not miss out on the chance to make a difference. Your payback will far

outweigh any minor inconvenience you can imagine at the time.

Preaching should not be needed to any of us Baja lovers. We are a committed lot for the most part.

I am ever grateful for our moderator having to herd cats like he has to do all too often.

We come in all stripes, and at times it is daunting to imagine all that our moderator

has to put up with.

Thank you Baja Nomad for being an outlet to express our wide ranging opinions.

Wider than some and not wide enough for others is a sign of true democracy in

action.

Happy Sunday to all of us Baja lovers.

wilderone - 10-5-2025 at 01:47 PM

Abrazos surfhat

CaboMagic - 10-5-2025 at 02:36 PM

AK we monitor numerous sites --

I mentioned just yesterday I think windy is 'computer generated' or whatever the technology term is, while others have written interpretations/predictions by meteorologists etc and also have motion satellite shots that allow us to get an idea of what is happening, and/or going to.

At the end of Sept windyty 'predicted' a storm while eebmike showed it being chopped away at and it was mostly a non-event .. we did get some much needed and welcomed rain but not massive amounts and very little wind.
Lori

pauldavidmena - 10-6-2025 at 06:42 AM

It looks like the National Hurricane Center is now forecasting that Priscilla, currently a hurricane, will bend toward the east and make contact with Baja just south of the border between the two states. Regardless of how close it gets, it's likely to bring more rain.

pauldavidmena - 10-6-2025 at 09:04 AM

What a difference 3 hours can make!

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Baja
California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe.

Alm - 10-6-2025 at 10:03 PM

And what a difference between Baja Sur and Baja Norte. Probably not a drop again for GN and points north.

pauldavidmena - 10-7-2025 at 04:52 AM

Weathernerds.org shows the outer edge of Priscilla awfully close to Cabo and moving up the west coast of the Baja peninsula.

AKgringo - 10-7-2025 at 10:00 AM

The Sacramento news station that I watch is telling me that remnants of Priscilla could be dropping rain on me here in the foothills by the end of the week!

Between the Mario system, Priscilla, and a new system forming right now, I think the desert is going to bloom this year! I hope to see some of that in a couple of weeks.

pauldavidmena - 10-7-2025 at 10:46 AM

According to the latest radar imagery posted on eebmike.com, the outer bands of Priscilla are already tickling the feet of Baja.

shari - 10-7-2025 at 02:16 PM

The government sites in Baja are issuing scary forecasts and people are freaking out. Sure looks like a nothing burger here in Asuncion...might get a few drops and some nice surf anyway.

Alm - 10-7-2025 at 02:32 PM

Not much is predicted for Asuncion, 0.1 inch over the next 4 days. Hurricanes can be unpredictable, yes.