BajaNomad

HURRICANE POLO

mtgoat666 - 9-21-2026 at 12:26 PM

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211453
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

Polo is in the midst of a significant rapid intensification
episode. Satellite images indicate a developing central dense
overcast with very deep convection in the core. Additionally,
microwave images indicate that a small eye has formed beneath the
overcast with hints of a banded eyewall. The initial intensity
is set to 55 kt, consistent with the latest TAFB classification,
and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to provide a better
look at the intensity.

Conditions look ideal for explosive intensification during the next
day or two, with Polo's small inner core over very warm and
untapped waters above 30.5C, within light shear and plentiful
mid-level moisture. Every model responds to these conditions by
showing rapid intensification, and the SHIPS rapid intensification
index is showing percentages as high as I have ever seen them.
The new forecast is raised from the previous one and is very
aggressive, but still below the latest HCCA corrected-consensus
aid, which verbatim would be at least a 99th percentile event for
intensification. Polo is expected to be a small but very dangerous
hurricane by tomorrow and beyond.

The storm is drifting eastward, and still caught in weak steering
currents. A mid-level ridge is expected to develop over Mexico by
late Tuesday, causing Polo to move towards the west-northwest or
northwest by Wednesday into late week. This could bring the core
of the storm near or south of the coast of southwestern Mexico on
Thursday, and then south of the Baja California Peninsula on
Saturday. There is a large north-south spread in the guidance,
which has both short and long-range implications. Generally, the
guidance has nudged southward again, and the NHC forecast is
adjusted in that direction. Given the spread in the track
guidance, this is a low-confidence forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Polo is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane while it
moves closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay
offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or
magnitude of impacts. Residents in southwestern Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. A Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico.

[Edited on 9-21-2026 by mtgoat666]

mtgoat666 - 9-21-2026 at 12:34 PM

still too early to determine what track it will take relative to baja peninsula. but looks like it is coming...

Lee - 9-21-2026 at 02:48 PM

140mph wind this Saturday and close to Cabo. Don't want to be there.

JDCanuck - 9-21-2026 at 02:52 PM

At least this time there are a few days to prepare with advance warning.

AKgringo - 9-21-2026 at 03:25 PM

Forecasters this year must be losing sleep and fighting ulcers. We always expect the predictions to be a bit different than reality a week later, but this year the corrections seem to be more frequent and greater than in years past!

Ateo - 9-21-2026 at 09:20 PM

East Cape surf spot alert!!! Heck I may head to La Ribera.

Major Polo Cat 5

Don Jorge - 9-22-2026 at 06:42 AM

6:00 AM CST Tue Sep 22
Location: 14.5°N 101.5°W
Moving: E at 6 mph
Min pressure: 926 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

What can you say? This one picked up 90 mph in intensity in 24 hours.
Guidance is vague after 120 hours. Waiting.


StuckSucks - 9-22-2026 at 08:58 AM



221454_5day_cone.png - 257kB

mtgoat666 - 9-22-2026 at 11:14 AM

Not shown on the 5-d forecast track is that around day 5+ the track is expected to turn northward (per NOAA NHC), which may bring the storm onshore on the pac coast of BCS…

David K - 9-22-2026 at 01:14 PM

What does the M stand for at the hurricane eye locations?

AKgringo - 9-22-2026 at 01:44 PM

Quote: Originally posted by David K  
What does the M stand for at the hurricane eye locations?


Maybe?

mtgoat666 - 9-22-2026 at 01:45 PM

Quote: Originally posted by David K  
What does the M stand for at the hurricane eye locations?


M = major. Over 110 mph, categories 3, 4 and 5

track the storm here:
https://www.cyclocane.com/polo-storm-tracker/
and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Edited on 9-22-2026 by mtgoat666]

David K - 9-22-2026 at 03:00 PM

Cool! :light::bounce:
Thanks... Knowledge is good

Another brewing

Don Jorge - 9-22-2026 at 06:11 PM

Looking more and more like another named storm is developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the heels of Polo.

Polo is forecast to move north northwest. Tropical storm Odalys is forecast to move north northeast. Around Sunday they will be close enough together to perhaps change the models. Maybe?

It is pretty fascinating watching the imagery from NHC NOAA in this unprecedented El Niño moment.

Olive Ridley turtles laid eggs on Huntington Beach sands this week, this year. First time ever been recorded as happening. This fall and winter are going to be full of subtropical surprises for Baja and So Cal. Yikes!

My prediction.....

AKgringo - 9-22-2026 at 06:54 PM

The dessert will bloom! I just can't tell you where and when it will max out.

David K - 9-23-2026 at 04:46 AM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  
The dessert will bloom! I just can't tell you where and when it will max out.


That would be "sweet"!

SFandH - 9-23-2026 at 07:30 AM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  
The dessert will bloom! I just can't tell you where and when it will max out.


I love blooming desserts, especially after a nice meal.

Sorry AK, I made the same spelling error in school. ;)

lencho - 9-23-2026 at 08:10 AM

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
I love blooming desserts, especially after a nice meal.
Sonoran Dessert: Churros rellenos de chocolate coca. ;)

AKgringo - 9-23-2026 at 08:39 AM

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH  
Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  
The dessert will bloom! I just can't tell you where and when it will max out.


I love blooming desserts, especially after a nice meal.

Sorry AK, I made the same spelling error in school. ;)


My teachers were right! I could have done better if I tried! I think I have some Flan in the refrigerator that is about to bloom.

mtgoat666 - 9-23-2026 at 08:47 AM




Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Polo is continuing to
undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, with infrared imagery showing
multiple rings of cold tops near and around the center. Overall,
the hurricane is not as intense as it was 24 h ago, as the eye has
become less distinct and the eyewall cloud tops have warmed. The
various satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, and
based on this trend the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
generous 130 kt. Outer rainbands in the northeastern semicircle
have reached the coast of Mexico.

Polo is starting its forecast turn toward the northwest with the
initial motion now 325/4 kt. Water vapor imagery suggests a
mid-level ridge is building over Texas and Mexico, and the
dynamical models forecast this ridge to build westward to the north
of Polo for the next 2-3 days. This evolution should result in Polo
moving northwestward and then west-northwestward with some increase
in forward speed. The forecast becomes more uncertain after 60-72
h. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to the north to weaken
around that time as a mid-latitude trough moves into the western
United States. There is also the possibility of interaction with
Hurricane Odalys to the west. The guidance becomes divergent by
120 h, with the GFS/HCCA/Google DeepMind/Florida State
Superensemble showing a northward motion close to Baja California,
while the regional hurricane models/UKMET/Canadian show a
northwestward motion farther away from Baja. The track forecast
goes with the northward motion scenario, but there is a significant
amount of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast.

The trends of the intensity forecast guidance suggest that Polo
could weaken a little during the next day or so, followed by
re-intensification during the ensuing 24 h. The first two days of
the intensity forecast follow these trends, and there could be
fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles
superimposed on top of this overall trend. After 48 h, the
environment gradually becomes less favorable due to slightly
stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air entrainment. The
guidance forecast slow weakening during this time, and the new
intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast is near the upper
edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and then lies closer to the
middle of the guidance envelope.




[Edited on 9-23-2026 by mtgoat666]

pauldavidmena - 9-24-2026 at 06:49 AM

The current forecast track - still 5 days out - shows Polo making landfall midway up the Pacific coast of BCS on September 29th.

SFandH - 9-24-2026 at 07:29 AM

Windy prediction for 8 AM Tuesday

https://www.windy.com/?2026-09-29-15,25.225,-108.282,6,m:egQ...




hurricane polo.png - 367kB

Windy rain forecast model

AKgringo - 9-24-2026 at 08:02 AM

The only good thing about this "forecast" is that if Polo follows the model, it won't linger over Baja. By mid-day on the 29th it will be slamming the mainland.

The wannabe storm chaser in me wants to be there, but I guess I will just watch electronically with a cup of coffee in my hand

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2026-09-29-20,...

[Edited on 9-24-2026 by AKgringo]

lencho - 9-24-2026 at 09:40 AM

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  
The only good thing about this "forecast" is that if Polo follows the model...
The middle of the state could get hammered!

If so, Highway 1 might be "complicado" for a while; time to stock up on goods that normally travel down the Peninsula. :light:

AKgringo - 9-24-2026 at 10:03 AM

A lot of Baja's supply chain comes in at ports in La Paz and Cabo, but IF the Windy long-range model comes to pass, the Cape will get slammed by another system about a week later!

[Edited on 9-24-2026 by AKgringo]

mtgoat666 - 9-24-2026 at 10:26 AM

Looks like mag bay and san juanico will take the hit. It will hit coast at Cat 3+ and still be Cat 1 or 2 as it crosses the penninsula.



Really

Don Jorge - 9-24-2026 at 12:14 PM

dreading how this is going to play out for the entire central Baja Peninsula.
Forecast is absolutely horrendous for both the Pacific and Coretz sides.

Bahia Magdalena is on track to be in the dreaded SE quadrant of a Cat 3 landfall. Then it crosses over to Mulege and Loreto areas all the while dumping huge amounts of water on the Central Cordillera of Baja California Sur filling every drainage in every direction. Asuncion is on the target too. Hope Shari, busy preparing now, comes out ok.

How many times have we, me. you, driven across these drainages and wondered how they ever got so wide and wondered about how much violent water must have created these. We may get first hand experience too soon on this, dam.

I'm old enough to remember El Niño's dating back to the 1960s and got caught in a few doozies while travelling and while farming both in California and Baja California.

But I've never seen one that had this much potential to rework the landscapes of both places. I'm really worried for my friends and family in Puerto San Carlos. That town is built on a sand spit, literally.

The way the models look PSC could get a direct hit as guidance keeps shifting east as Hurricane Odalys is punching above her weight and pushing Polo a bit eastward, poco a poco.

Truly an OH SSSHHIIT is developing in front of our screens hour by hour.

Hope I'm being overdramatic, really, really hope so.

Tioloco - 9-24-2026 at 10:34 PM

you are being over dramatic. But ok