HURRICANE POLO

Major Polo Cat 5

Quote: Originally posted by David K

What does the M stand for at the hurricane eye locations?

Quote: Originally posted by David K

What does the M stand for at the hurricane eye locations?

Cool!
Thanks... Knowledge is good

Another brewing

My prediction.....

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

The dessert will bloom! I just can't tell you where and when it will max out.

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

The dessert will bloom! I just can't tell you where and when it will max out.

I love blooming desserts, especially after a nice meal.

Sorry AK, I made the same spelling error in school.

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo   The dessert will bloom! I just can't tell you where and when it will max out. I love blooming desserts, especially after a nice meal. Sorry AK, I made the same spelling error in school.

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Polo is continuing to
undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, with infrared imagery showing
multiple rings of cold tops near and around the center. Overall,
the hurricane is not as intense as it was 24 h ago, as the eye has
become less distinct and the eyewall cloud tops have warmed. The
various satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, and
based on this trend the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
generous 130 kt. Outer rainbands in the northeastern semicircle
have reached the coast of Mexico.

Polo is starting its forecast turn toward the northwest with the
initial motion now 325/4 kt. Water vapor imagery suggests a
mid-level ridge is building over Texas and Mexico, and the
dynamical models forecast this ridge to build westward to the north
of Polo for the next 2-3 days. This evolution should result in Polo
moving northwestward and then west-northwestward with some increase
in forward speed. The forecast becomes more uncertain after 60-72
h. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to the north to weaken
around that time as a mid-latitude trough moves into the western
United States. There is also the possibility of interaction with
Hurricane Odalys to the west. The guidance becomes divergent by
120 h, with the GFS/HCCA/Google DeepMind/Florida State
Superensemble showing a northward motion close to Baja California,
while the regional hurricane models/UKMET/Canadian show a
northwestward motion farther away from Baja. The track forecast
goes with the northward motion scenario, but there is a significant
amount of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast.

The trends of the intensity forecast guidance suggest that Polo
could weaken a little during the next day or so, followed by
re-intensification during the ensuing 24 h. The first two days of
the intensity forecast follow these trends, and there could be
fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles
superimposed on top of this overall trend. After 48 h, the
environment gradually becomes less favorable due to slightly
stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air entrainment. The
guidance forecast slow weakening during this time, and the new
intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast is near the upper
edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and then lies closer to the
middle of the guidance envelope.




[Edited on 9-23-2026 by mtgoat666]

The current forecast track - still 5 days out - shows Polo making landfall midway up the Pacific coast of BCS on September 29th.

Windy prediction for 8 AM Tuesday

https://www.windy.com/?2026-09-29-15,25.225,-108.282,6,m:egQ...

Windy rain forecast model

Looks like mag bay and san juanico will take the hit. It will hit coast at Cat 3+ and still be Cat 1 or 2 as it crosses the penninsula.

Really

From WeatherUnderground, current radar and the forecasted track of Polo, also showing the proximity of Odalys to the west. The storm is expected to hit central BCS on Monday.

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

I seriously doubt that the flood control efforts on the Mulege drainage are going to be able to handle this event! if I was there I would be heading for high ground, right now!

A friend who is there now said moving riverside households uphill started Friday.

I think this photo is Hurricane John in the early 2000s.






[Edited on 9-27-2026 by SFandH]

Quote: Originally posted by surfhat

the thought of the desert in bloom is a wonder of nature that all of us Nomads should appreciate when you get the chance.

Maybe it won't be as bad as John or Odile

Quote: Originally posted by SFandH

I think this photo is Hurricane John in the early 2000s.

Searching

My friends in San Juanico are certainly preparing. Over the past couple of weeks there's already been a LOT of rain and some of the low-lying dirt roads are still flooded. Securing roofs and belongings is going on for the last few days.

This is gonna be rough for that area!

They were also preparing for the start of lobster season, which is probably going to get pushed out because of this.

I've got a trailer there that I hope stays upright!

Radar and forecast from Weather Underground this morning.

Windy rain forecast model

First login in ages. I just came to wish everyone a healthy and safe hurricane. I've traveled both coasts on motorcycles north/south and from eastern to western coasts. San Juanico was a completely random discovery for me. I remember the damages from previous hurricanes and know there will be challenges. Best to y'all.

Muelle

in Puerto San Carlos. The water is normally 3 feet under the footbridge to the floating docks on the terminus where tourists are loaded onto boats.

Surge, winds and tides are noticeable. Lots of trees being blown over.

Mulege earlier today, hurricane later tonight...




[Edited on 9-28-2026 by SFandH]

Mulege flooding

Here's a photo from the BBC, taken in Puerto San Carlos, BCS shortly after landfall.

Any news about the San Juanico area?

Thanks for the feedback!

Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo

I expected road damage, but glad to hear that the town didn't get hammered. My experience driving around there after previous storms makes me think they will get things open pretty quickly.