mtgoat666 - 9-27-2026 at 06:35 PM
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
300 PM CST Sun Sep 27 2026
Recent visible satellite imagery shows that banding features
associated the cyclone remain fragmented, but a couple of ASCATpasses from just after 1500 UTC revealed an area of 35 kt winds tothe southeast of the
center. Therefore, the system has reachedtropical storm status, making Rachel the seventeenth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin this season.
Rachel is moving west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. A deep-layer
ridge building over Mexico is expected to steer the cyclone
west-northwest at a faster forward speed through mid-week. This heading should result in the core of the storm passing well south of the coast of
southern Mexico during the next couple of days. After 72 hours, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge over northwestern Mexico as a trough
moves into the southwestern United States. This should cause Rachel to slow, but remain on a northwestward to west-northwestward track when it is
located well southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the
typically reliable consensus aids.
The SHIPS model continues to diagnose about 20 kt of northeasterly shear over the system. The shear does not appear to be prohibitive for
strengthening. In fact, most of the intensity guidance calls for gradual strengthening during the next couple few days, and Rachel is forecast to
become a hurricane on Tuesday. After that time, there is uncertainty with regards to SSTs as Rachel may track over the cool wake from Hurricane Polo.
As a result, the NHC intensity forecast plateaus near the end of the forecast period between the Google Deep Mind and HFIP corrected consensus
solutions.
[Edited on 9-28-2026 by mtgoat666]