That isn't a prediction, that is current sea surface height anomalies which is directly tied to thermal expansion of the ocean. This is also being
called the "Kelvin Wave" which is already being measured through the NOAA tide buoys. Its clearly visible here in San Diego as well, the tide is 1.5ft
higher than predicted.
El Nino is a multi staged series of events. We are seeing many of the first stages (reversal of trade winds, warm water pooling on eastern equatorial
pacific and some increased convection along the eastern equatorial pacific). But when the general public thinks of "El Nino" it is tied with the
increased and charged winter storms. We should start seeing the Northern jetstream react to these atmospheric changes, but it hasn't happened yet.
There is still plenty of time for the northern jet to react.
Another major player is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - It is a long term record of warm and cool phases of the Pacific. Right now we've been
in a cold phase which may dampen this years El Nino, as it did during the last "Godzilla El Nino" of 2015-2016 (which was pretty much an average
winter for Baja and California).
It's been a strange year!
AKgringo - 10-25-2026 at 09:19 AM
This mornings news is forecasting a tropical storm forming in the western Pacific and moving eastward toward Hawaii.
That's not normal!Tioloco - 10-25-2026 at 11:43 AM
