Bruce R Leech - 6-22-2005 at 09:01 AM
WTPZ22 KNHC 220831
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005
0900Z WED JUN 22 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.9W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.9W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 104.4W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 104.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
FORECASTER PASCH
bajajudy - 6-22-2005 at 11:31 AM
I do believe that the water is too cold to worry yet about hurricanes. It is about 74.5 here or so I heard.
Frank - 6-22-2005 at 06:44 PM
Whew, just keep heading west Beatriz!!!!!!!!!! I heading South in 3 days.
Bruce R Leech - 6-23-2005 at 06:54 AM
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230826
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005
0900Z THU JUN 23 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......125NE 40SE 40SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 40SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.7W
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.8N 111.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.8N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 109.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
Bruce R Leech - 6-23-2005 at 06:55 AM
WTPZ42 KNHC 230826
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2005
ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE UP TO 3.5...CORRESPONDING TO AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KT...AT 06Z...THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISHED. MOREOVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS
RAGGED-LOOKING WITH NO DISCERNABLE BANDING. CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS VISIBLE FIXES SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. ASSUMING THIS...AND USING THE SHEAR
PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ONE OBTAINS A T-NUMBER CLOSER
TO 3.0. CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND IS ACKNOWLEDGED IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE CLOSING SOON AS THE STORM HEADS FOR
COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THAT SHOWN BY THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
BAJA PENINSULA BREAKS DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED TO A DRIFT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TURN SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD IN 4-5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...BEATRIZ
IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO A WEAK REMNANT LOW THAT WILL BE
STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.3N 109.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.8N 111.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 17.4N 113.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 17.8N 114.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
6 23 05
Bruce R Leech - 6-23-2005 at 06:59 AM