Tucker - 10-2-2003 at 06:41 PM
For those of you who can't do without having anything to worry about, Tropical Storm Nora has formed about 400 miles west of Manzanillo. Forecast to
move northward.
Bajabus - 10-2-2003 at 06:46 PM
Oh please I can't take any more... or rather my house can't. I'm going down in about 12 days......just in time.
Stephanie Jackter - 10-2-2003 at 11:10 PM
I'd just take it as a sign that there's no need to do much in the way of repairs just yet. Might as well settle in with a good book and see what
direction it takes! - Stephanie
WIND
Capt. George - 10-3-2003 at 03:21 PM
I'm leaving the Florida Keys? Hurricanes,
Duh.......thought they didn't exist in Baja.
Don't care, Baja has something the Keys don't............Choyeros (spelled wrong?).
Capt. Jorge Loreto
Family Guy - 10-3-2003 at 04:30 PM
Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 9
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on October 03, 2003
Nora is almost a hurricane. Recent microwave overpasses...from trmm
at 1312 UTC and SSMI at 1513 UTC...reveal a formative eye and
increased banding. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates are
55 kt from TAFB and SAB...and hints of an eye developing within
the central deep convection are apparent in visible imagery. Based
on this information...the advisory intensity is increased to 60 kt.
The system continues to move generally toward the northwest...but
recent microwave fixes indicate a faster motion than this
morning...now 325/6. Forecast track guidance and philosophy are
otherwise very similar to the previous advisory. Through 72
hours...the official forecast track is close to the consensus of
the GFDL...NOGAPS...and UKMET. The GFS is an outlier...the model
circulation appears to be too weak and as a result follows a more
westerly track. Beyond 72 hours...the dynamical models indicate a
very slow motion in a variety of directions... in an area of weak
steering to the south of an approaching mid/upper level trough.
Due to the uncertainty...the official forecast is stationary at
days three through five.
Nora is expected to remain within an environment of weak vertical
shear and over SSTs of 27c or greater for about the next 48 hours.
As a result...the official forecast follows the SHIPS model in
bringing the storm to 70 kt in 24 hours. Steady weakening is
expected thereafter...as westerly shear increases ahead of the
approaching trough...and the cyclone sits over 26c SSTs.
Forecaster Knabb/Franklin