bajajudy - 9-28-2005 at 09:35 AM
Looks like Otis(has not been named yet) might bring the southern tip of Baja some much needed rain. I dare not ask for more!
vandenberg - 9-28-2005 at 11:35 AM
Same for the central part of the state.
Tucker - 9-28-2005 at 12:25 PM
The La Paz area could stand a day or so to dry out.
bajaden - 9-28-2005 at 12:51 PM
Think it might make it as far north as Mulege. I've been praying to the rain Gods. So far they've mocked me.
Current Forecast
Tucker - 9-28-2005 at 01:09 PM
comitan - 9-28-2005 at 01:15 PM
The latest satelitte shows it loosing strength.
Tucker - 9-28-2005 at 01:22 PM
WTPN31 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/281535ZSEP2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 105.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 105.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.3N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.7N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.7N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.0N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.5N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
rts551 - 9-28-2005 at 07:55 PM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS ALMOST TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PRODUCE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA. ADDITIONALLY...A SHIP 125 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER REPORTED 30 KT. SINCE THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES IS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A
30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/5. THE CYCLONE IS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ALONG 26N. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...
AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN IN 36-48 HR
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE
MODELS CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...PASSING NEAR OR OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET...THE ECMWF... AND THE
GFDN KEEP ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE TROUGH
TO MOVE THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
LAND. SINCE EVEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/
GFDL/NOGAPS/CANADIAN SOLUTION...CALLING FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
BY 24-36 HR AND A NORTHWARD MOTION BY 96-120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF
THE NORTHWARD-POINTING GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-20 KT OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 72 HR
OR SO. THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24
HR...WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR MUCH LESS INTENSIFICATION...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT IN 60-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BLEND THE
GFDL AND SHIPS...CALLING FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...COOL SSTS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AFTER 72 HR THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SST ISOTHERMS. THUS...ANY DEVIATION FROM
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW WARM/COOL
THE WATER IS UNDER THE CYCLONE.
THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE REVISED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED
ON THE SHIP REPORT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.1N 107.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.2N 110.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W 45 KT
$$
Otis
bajajudy - 9-29-2005 at 06:09 AM
From Accuweather:
Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 29, 2005 8:18 a.m.
Tropical Depression 15-E has become Tropical Storm Otis Thursday
morning. It is located at 17.5 North and 107.6 West, or about 270 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Winds are up to 40 mph, and it is moving
west northwestward at about 6 mph. The storm system will strengthen as it moves northward and eventually northward over the next few day. This system
is expected to make landfall on Baja California Sunday. The remnants are expected to bring heavy rain to Arizona early next week.
[Edited on 9-29-2005 by bajajudy]
bajalera - 9-29-2005 at 08:51 AM
Help! I'm drowning in weather reports.