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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C WITHIN A DEVELOPING CDO. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL AT T2.5. GIVEN THE NEW CDO AND
CONTINUED BANDING FEATURES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO EXTEND OUT PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 150 NMI
ON THE NORTH SIDE...THOUGH LITTLE IN SITU DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE.
ILEANA IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED SUGGESTING A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP WEST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE GFS AND A WEAKER FEATURE IS FORECAST
BY THE NOGAPS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THAT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CAUSE
ILEANA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE VORTEX INITIALIZED WELL.
ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ILEANA TO
POSSIBLY RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN -- VERY LOW WIND SHEAR...HIGH
SSTS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND
INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE FEATURES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS
ILEANA IS PREDICTED TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER SSTS AND MORE STABLE AIR...SO
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING THOUGH...IF
ILEANA REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEADebra - 8-21-2006 at 08:10 PM
Bruce, do me a favor pal?
If it does rain, go stand out in it for me and report back what it feels like? (I forget)
We are having a major drought up here, Seattle has had less rain in Augest since they started keeping records! EVER! Better yet, just when is that
rain supposed to hit?, maybe I can get there in time! toneart - 8-21-2006 at 08:24 PM
Jeez, Bruce.
I would rather have it translated in your words, spelling and all.Bruce R Leech - 8-21-2006 at 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by toneart
Jeez, Bruce.
I would rather have it translated in your words, spelling and all.
no such luck toneart
Debra I will be up north also so I will probably miss it to.Debra - 8-21-2006 at 08:53 PM
Bruce, can you have a neighbor trap a cup and ship it up for us?
Where up north are you heading, how far?
[Edited on 8-22-2006 by Debra]Bruce R Leech - 8-21-2006 at 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Debra
Bruce, can you have a neighbor trap a cup and ship it up for us?
Where up north are you heading, how far?
[Edited on 8-22-2006 by Debra]
for you I will tryBruce R Leech - 8-22-2006 at 04:19 PM
this thing is growing and could be our first good storm in 3 years
