BajaNomad - Tropical Storm John

Tropical Storm John

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Don Alley - 8-28-2006 at 05:31 PM

It's early, but this one looks like a good bet to bring some rain.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611...

ts john

CaboBrian - 8-28-2006 at 05:41 PM

Great, and I'm flying in on the 2nd!! Damn!

comitan - 8-28-2006 at 05:59 PM

Brian

It will be exciting!!!!!!!!!!

ts john

CaboBrian - 8-28-2006 at 06:08 PM

lol, i guess so! Does anyone know what happenes in these cases? Do they hold up flights etc.? i'm flying out of sfo to sjd, driving to La Paz for 2 nights and then over to my timeshare in Cabo. I suppose the rain would be welcome with the heat where it is, but has anyone ever road out a bad one down there?

Thanks

comitan - 8-28-2006 at 06:25 PM

Many, if your in La Paz in a Hotel you will have no Power A/C during a Hurricane they shut all power off at the source. The streets will be running rivers then a cascading waterfall onto the Malecon, I don't think any danger just uncomfortable.

jerry - 8-28-2006 at 06:32 PM

cabo when you decide to drive to cabo from la pas go to the buss depo
and ask witch way to go then follow the buss if your worried only problem you might have is keeping up
couple years ago i was in cabo and was told this we went by way of todo on the return found out later it was 2 days hold up the other way so the busses know good luck remember memories arnt made by everything went as planned :lol:

ts john

CaboBrian - 8-28-2006 at 06:40 PM

Thanks for the tips guys! This probably is a stupid question but, in La Paz, we're staying at the Fiesta Inn which is only supposed to be a couple years old....dont the newer places have stand by generators? In Cabo at Marina Fiesta......remember, I'm a newbie!! ha ha

Bruce R Leech - 8-28-2006 at 07:30 PM

I hope we finely get one

osoflojo - 8-29-2006 at 11:53 AM

Rode out the floods of Nov 93 in Cabo, was not a chubasco but a hell of a lot of water. Electricity was off for a week or so but water was off for nearly 4 months. Roads were inpassable for a day or two but Mexican ingenuity got them open quickly. Fresh food was an issue for several weeks. The few hurricanes I have seen in Cabo have done little damage except to the beach, signs and Satellite dishes. Also the event in 93 washed several vehicles into the marina and every boat without a bilge pump working off a battery was at the bottom of the marina. Checking with the bus company is a good idea if you notice any rain at all in the mountains. Many of the worst washes between LAP and the Cape have been reengineered but may still be inpassable with a good rainfall in the montanas.

JZ - 8-29-2006 at 12:32 PM

[Edited on 8-29-2006 by JZ]

Hurricane John

bajajudy - 8-29-2006 at 01:32 PM

My contractor is out right now getting materials to shutter the windows in our new building. I do not like the looks of this one at all. Please dont wish for rain because I fear there will be a lot of wind associated with any rain we get. This has the potential of being a category 3, minimum, when it approaches us and I dont like that sound of that in the least.
Looks like friday will tell the tale. I sure hope that the one model(GFDL) that has the storm coming up the Sea of Cortez is not correct.

DianaT - 8-29-2006 at 02:03 PM

Good luck to those of you in the south. Be safe!

Diane

aliibike - 8-29-2006 at 02:16 PM

Hola Judy! I'm close to Los Frailes and wishing for the same as you! Just got back with some more plywood. What is the address of that site on your post? Would be nice to see those "models".
Rick

Cypress - 8-29-2006 at 02:18 PM

A category 3 in the Sea of Cortez will bring a lot more than rain. The wind will rip roofs off, roll trailers and anything that's not tied down's gonna be gone. The destruction will be unbelievable. The storm surge will be in excess of 10 feet. It will be a nightmare. Have been thru several hurricanes down along the US gulf coast. Don't underestimate the power of a cat 3 hurricane.

Phil C - 8-29-2006 at 02:20 PM

The 5 day forcasts for Ernesto were about 1000 miles off. It went east of the first predicted track. While forcasting these things has gotten better, it's not an exact science....

villadelfin - 8-29-2006 at 02:58 PM

Quote:

Hola Judy! I'm close to Los Frailes and wishing for the same as you! Just got back with some more plywood. What is the address of that site on your post? Would be nice to see those "models".

looks like what's on www.bajainsider.com

go to weather and click on the red "hurricane john"

movinguy - 8-29-2006 at 03:00 PM

Doesn't look so good on the Pacific side, either:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Edited on 8-29-2006 by movinguy]

bajajudy - 8-29-2006 at 03:20 PM

Actually that came from
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

John is already a cat 3 hurricane
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

And yes a cat 4 hurricane coming up the Sea of Cortez would be a nightmare beyond belief.

All we can do is read the information available and make our decisions. I tend to err on the side of caution. I have been through at least 10 hurricanes/typhoons. I was in St Croix on a boat for Dave and Frederick. I was in Key West for Andrew. I was in Manila for typhoon Ruby. Just to name a few that you would recognize. Anything that you do in advance, you will never regret. Running around in the middle of the night trying to secure things is not fun. And they always hit at night. :no:

Osprey - 8-29-2006 at 03:27 PM

Brian, before you leave go to the nearest international trade bank in your town, buy some pesos. When Cabo power goes down the ATMs don't work, the banks can't get money, you got problems. One really bad one here the banks were open but No Cash Transactions -- they finally brought money in by sea. Didn't make a lot of difference, by then there was nothin to buy.

bajajudy - 8-29-2006 at 03:35 PM

Thats good advice Seahawk.
We have 6 garrofones of water. We will top off all our vehicles. Propane is being delivered tomorrow. My freezer has enough to last a week and we will be eating it fast although we have a generator(which I have to start and make sure all is well there) we will run to keep it frozen. We also have 3 bags of ice for cold beer. Think about candles and flashlights. I always fill up anything that will hold water for flushing in case our tenaca runs out. We always lose city water because the pumps are in the arroyo and it will be flooded.
Who knows maybe John will take a left and be gone. I am a firm believer in better safe than sorry. :dudette:

TS JOHN

CaboBrian - 8-29-2006 at 03:40 PM

Thanks for the advice. I'm sure they would cancel my flight if it was too bad down there....at least I hope they would. I guess we'll see where this bad boy goes and make a decision on friday. I'd rather reschedule than go down there when things are upside down.

Thanks again and please keep me updated if you could.

Sounds like you have it down bajajudy

Sonora Wind - 8-29-2006 at 03:43 PM

We'll all watch this one until he's dead. I too hope he turns hard left and sends a fetch our way ( so cal ). This makes for an interresting summer? yes :cool:

Be Safe

[Edited on 8-29-2006 by Sonora Wind]

The Airport

Sonora Wind - 8-29-2006 at 03:55 PM

Is a very long way from the beach. It may rain like heck. You may have trouble getting from point A to Point B. But you"ll never forget the trip. But you might want to book in May next time. :cool:

Please post the adventure. :cool:

The Airport

Please post the adventure. :cool:

[Edited on 8-29-2006 by Sonora Wind]

I guess I double clicked

Sonora Wind - 8-29-2006 at 03:57 PM

aliibike - 8-29-2006 at 04:00 PM

Thanks Judy! I have the site, just didn't see that option. Can't believe I didn't see it actually, is it new?

Rick

Osprey - 8-29-2006 at 05:56 PM

Brian, around here the pesos you might need may be for "fording". Lots of enterprising sorts go to the flooded highway/access roads with 4X4s and taxis to get stranded tourists/road travelers across raging water to catch planes, buses, get to medical centers. We had whole resort populations in this area, luggage held high, wading out to be taxied/rowed/carried to the airport side of rivers that ran for 2 months after the storms. Couple of my pals paid up to $500 dollars to get to where they wanted to be in taxis and are still talking about how cheap that was.

CaboBrian - 8-29-2006 at 06:00 PM

How does the road between the airport and La Paz and from La Paz to Cabo usually take this sort of thing?

bajajudy - 8-29-2006 at 06:14 PM

CB
We havent had a big storm since they put in bridges at several of the problem areas between the airport and La Paz. I figure that Osprey is talking about Las Cuevas which now has a bridge. These bridges have not been tested. The one by San Bartolo looks to me like the banks will wash away before the bridge, leaving it stranded.
If it is that bad the airport will be closed anyway. It doesnt look like we will get much more than rain. We will know more as each day passes.
If you are coming to Baja, be ready for any adventure that nature throws your way.....that is all part of its charm :biggrin:

Russ - 8-29-2006 at 06:38 PM

Google Earth has an upgrade for storms. Pretty Cool

bajablue - 8-29-2006 at 11:15 PM

CB,
bring your rain gear for Cabo Del Sol. I want to see some photos of you on the par 3, with the storm in the back ground. remember to club up, into the wind..

sanfelipebob - 8-30-2006 at 11:53 AM

looks like Friday evening will be a bad night for Rips or Lattitude 22 ! Bunker down.

Latest from NOAA

Cincodemayo - 8-30-2006 at 12:51 PM

Early AM Friday thru Saturday look rough for the Cabo area...batton down the hatches and stock up on the cervezas amigos...Play safe.

osoflojo - 8-30-2006 at 12:56 PM

I dont know about the bridges east of the airport going to LAP but the ones between SJD and San Lucas have been tested and failed a couple of times since they were put in in the early 90's. El Tule went twice and one time the water kept running from the montanas for almost 6 months. It changed the whole bottom structure and composition of Chileno Reef area.
John was upgraded to a Cat 4 this afternoon and his track modified a little further east. If you are anywhere near the area I would take Judy's advice. Hunker down and be safe.

Al G - 8-30-2006 at 12:56 PM

K\Look at this it is scary:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611.html

jerry - 8-30-2006 at 01:06 PM

where is the water going to come from??

looks like the question has been answered??

osoflojo - 8-30-2006 at 01:12 PM

Jerry
If you are asking about my post the water runs down out of the 6,000+ foot mountains just north of SJD and northeast of San Lucas.

wornout - 8-30-2006 at 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Russ
Google Earth has an upgrade for storms. Pretty Cool

Where? I didn't find any links at www.googleearth.com?

jerry - 8-30-2006 at 02:15 PM

seems that its time to put in some dams and save some of this water for new construced housing?? if it wasnt for dams the whole state of cali would be a cactic patch for rabbits and reptiles

jerry - 8-30-2006 at 02:23 PM

osoflojo
i was in cabo in december that year the bridge washed out in november right after the presadent of mexico dedacated it
it was a hell of a mess 43 inches of rain in 24 hours
400 and some dead
all the ppl living in the wash in sjdc along with everthing they had washed out to sea
i was refering to a often asked question on this board as to where will the water come from for the new building dams would preserve the water and controll the runoff

More...

Sharksbaja - 8-30-2006 at 03:21 PM

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/eastpac/storm/st...

comitan - 8-30-2006 at 03:39 PM

Sharks

Why do you do this to me, now another storm site if I keep this up I can be a weatherman, but thanks its a good site.

longlegsinlapaz - 8-30-2006 at 03:47 PM

HEADS UP!!! As of the last update on www.eebmike.com, 3 of the 5 path prediction models now show it's going to come up the Sea of Cortez! Got to get back outside & get more things moved into the garage!

CaboBrian....Bring your hipwaders....IF your flight isn't cancelled!

[Edited on 8-30-2006 by longlegsinlapaz]

Skeet/Loreto - 8-30-2006 at 03:49 PM

Nomads:
The Tract of this Storm reminds me of Hurricane Lisa in 76{?}
Many many People were washed down the Arroyo when the Resevior bust in La Paz.
I was in Loreto setting in a MotorHome with Tio Don. We had placed Lines around the Palapa Roof and tied them to the Ground with Stakes.
The Arroyo ran many Days after washing out 80,000 Tons of Gravel/Sand created the Sand Spit just South of Hotel Oasis.
WE found Coral Sankes, a Donkey still tied to a Post that came down from San Javier. The Debris piled up on the Beach about Three Feet, and extented out from the Shore 7 Miles .
I would also suggest to the people in Loreto to get prepared for Much Water and winds to at least 85 MPH if this Storm contuines on this Track.

The people of MiraMar should really be concerned as several years Past the two Arroyos were put together and directed toward th Space where the New Salbot Marina is to be Constructed.

Be Aware!
Skeet/Loreto

Don Alley - 8-30-2006 at 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by jerry
seems that its time to put in some dams and save some of this water for new construced housing?? if it wasnt for dams the whole state of cali would be a cactic patch for rabbits and reptiles

Jerry, after seeing the various posts on breakwall and marina construction, would you live below a dam in Mexico?

There are some small ones on a tributary to the arroyo above Loreto, either a big storm, or just the passing of a few years, will probably take them out.

Well, let's let Loreto Bay figure it out.

CaboBrian - 8-30-2006 at 04:09 PM

I've been tracking John all day on the web and it looks like it's going head on with Cabo! I've already started looking into altenative plans because even if i hold off a few days, who knows what kind of devastation there will be. I'm peeed!! More importantly though, I'll keep all residents down there in my prayers!!

Cincodemayo - 8-30-2006 at 04:30 PM

I really hope the officials get the word out to folks living in canyons and low lying areas to get the heck out as this looks like a kickass powerhouse with mucho muscle.

Al G - 8-30-2006 at 04:31 PM

I haven't prayed since my daughter was born, and in my case may not be heard. I still intend to give it my best effort for all in Baja. I found out my friends from Todos Santos are in the States. I am now very concerned for Bandit, Poncho, and Angel, their dogs and cat. I hope they call me back soon.

Cincodemayo - 8-30-2006 at 04:42 PM

As you can see the latest from NOAA shows the eye going straight over the tip but time will tell. Hurricane watch from La Paz all around the tip way around the same parallel to the Pacific. This thing looks to gain more intensity getting into deeper water with the surface temps above 80F.
Will surely give some prayers for all the inhabitants of the Baja tip....

[Edited on 8-30-2006 by Cincodemayo]

John's wind...

Cincodemayo - 8-30-2006 at 05:04 PM

This thing is blowing hard as well as dumping. Cabo better prepare for the worst as well as Los Barilles and all the other towns. Hope they have warning.

JESSE - 8-30-2006 at 05:07 PM

By tomorrow morning we will definately know where this thing is heading, either west to cabo, center to los barriles, or into the sea of cortez and La Paz. Bought sand bags today and filled the gas tank, lets hope it stays far away enough to avoid us some big troubles, if it hits us at category 4 its going to nasty.

Cincodemayo - 8-30-2006 at 05:22 PM

Jesse...I caught the tail end of a hurricane in Cabo in 85 and that monstrosity of a hotel between the Finisterra and Solmar wasn't there at the time but if this thing hits right on it won't exist on the beach anymore!
This will devastate the harbor and unfortunately many businesses too. I'll surely hold the safety of the locals in thought. Cabo hasn't had a direct hit from a Cat 4 in many anos....

Al G - 8-30-2006 at 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Cincodemayo
This thing is blowing hard as well as dumping. Cabo better prepare for the worst as well as Los Barilles and all the other towns. Hope they have warning.

I know little of hurricanes, but can John suck up Kristy and become even bigger??

comitan - 8-30-2006 at 05:49 PM

Al

doubtful, If you want to read about some of the hurricanes we have had, just Google Juliette Sept 2001, and the last one Marty Sept 2003 that sunk over 100 boats, Tore out the docks and Marina offices in Cabo, in La Paz tore out Marina La Paz, and the one next door. Picture worth a thousand words.

http://www.clubcruceros.org/PhotosParties.html

On the above site just click on the hurricane for pictures. and hold on to your seat.

[Edited on 8-31-2006 by comitan]

bajarich - 8-30-2006 at 06:40 PM

Buenos suerte a todo. Good luck to you all in John's path. I have seen the devastation caused by Marty, Ignacio, and Juliet. Let's hope it makes a sudden turn out to the west.

Al G - 8-30-2006 at 06:42 PM

Thanks Comitan, Not that I want to see destruction, but It is a real eye opener

Looks like about every 3 or so years there is a price to pay.
Really Sad for all.

sanfelipebob - 8-30-2006 at 07:13 PM

When was the last time Cabo took a direct hit?

surfer jim - 8-30-2006 at 07:15 PM

Anybody been down to the ocean ?.....wave heights?....this should throw some very big waves at the coast.....

Cardon - 8-30-2006 at 07:26 PM

Quote:

Here is a bad picture that I took in Dec 1976 in front of Martin Verdugo's Trailer Park. This is wood that was washed out to sea during the hurricane and then pounded up on the beach. It was about 100-200 feet wide and about 1 mile long and stacked up about 7 feet high. We had tremendous bon fires that year-fun. I remember Martin telling us he was holding his kid/kids up in waist deep water around his house-kinda scary.

WOW

Al G - 8-30-2006 at 08:01 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611_sat.h...
I know nothing about hurricanes, but Look like these are about to join. :?:

Paula - 8-30-2006 at 08:05 PM

Up here in Montana we are worried about our home in Loreto. A small part of me wants to be there to do what I can to keep our place safe and help neighbors. But mostly I don't want to watch and feel the possible devastation, and I'll deal with what happens when we return in October.
Whatever I'm doing in the next few days I'll be thinking of all of you down there. I'm afraid it may be really bad in La Paz and south, but I'll be hoping for the best. Take care,

Paula

Paula - 8-30-2006 at 08:10 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Al G
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611_sat.h...
I know nothing about hurricanes, but Look like these are about to join.

Well, that's possible (they're opposite gender), but will they cooperate?

--Larry

OH my God!!!!! Let's hope they kill each other!

Bajabus - 8-30-2006 at 09:12 PM

Having gone thru Fausto and Juliette ( category 3) I know how bad it can get. Goggle me and Juliette for some dramatic reports and photos.

If this thing really hits as a cat 4 there is no chance in hell the new bridges at Migrino just north of Cabo and San jacinto in Elias calles will hold up. We were stranded for 2 weeks in elias calles after Juliette. The Mexican air force finally dropped food and water to us.

I have been in contact with several of my satellite customers in the area and they are ready. As soon as I start to get reports from them I will post here. Luckily we have been stockpiling equipment in Elias calles in anticipation of a bad hurricane season so no matter what happens we should be able to get complete reports with photos quickly from the area.

If you are in the path of this monster please remember to power down everything, especially inverters during the storm and do not power up until all is dried out. we replaced many a system because they shorted out in the intense moisture.

Good luck to all down there.

Debra - 8-30-2006 at 09:22 PM

Bajabus, Thanks! and HUNKER-DOWN! I remember your minute by minute reports during Juliette. Your photos during that time scared I'm sure not only me. Be safe!

David K - 8-30-2006 at 09:24 PM

Some of the finest 'Internet' happened while you were in Cocina Pacifica (Elias Calles) reporting LIVE via satellite... I had the pleasure of posting the photos you took for all to see!

Many will remember that storm thanks to you, Max!

Ken Cooke - 8-30-2006 at 09:30 PM

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060831/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/hurric...

More Yahoo News coverage for everyone.

Bajabus - 8-30-2006 at 09:36 PM

Well as upset as I am that I am in NC right now and not down in Elias Calles I am sort of glad to be safe, at least that's what my wife would have me think.

My partner is in Elias calles right up the beach from my place and we are in constant contact. We also have a rock solid 1.8mt dish on a 4 inch sch 40 steel pipe filled with concrete and a crap load of cement as the footing. Same dish we used to blog live during the storm. I worry about Rick because he is alone. I also have equipment and supplies stockpiled in San Diego with Import/Export ready to go down on next weeks Friday truck.

I have no hope for our palapa roof and windows......

bajajudy - 8-30-2006 at 09:43 PM

I went to the deposito and bought 4 cases of beer...case of red wine from costco...they had one cajera doing nothing but checking out people with generators. Saw everyone I know who has internet and realizes the gravity of this storm. Saw some local friends who did not know but were thankful to know(especially being at Costco when they received the news).
I think that we will be lucky if John moves more to the west. Still time for him to do that.
It is dead calm here now and very hot and humid.
scary :biggrin:

Bajabus - 8-30-2006 at 09:45 PM

Any one further up the peninsula using the standard .75Mt starband internet dish that needs a new dish after the storm because of damage contact me. I will give you one free immediately (you pay shipping). no need to be my customer

Neal Johns - 8-30-2006 at 09:55 PM

Bajabus has always been one of the good guys on this board and the above post shows it again. Good dog! :!:

JESSE - 8-30-2006 at 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by lencho

Quote:

Originally posted by JESSE
By tomorrow morning we will definately know where this thing is heading, either west to cabo, center to los barriles, or into the sea of cortez and La Paz. Bought sand bags today

Hey, Jesse-- where'd you get the bags?

--Larry

At any bakery, hardware stores are out.

this scares the you know what outta me!

flyfishinPam - 8-30-2006 at 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Skeet/Loreto
Nomads:
The Tract of this Storm reminds me of Hurricane Lisa in 76{?}
Many many People were washed down the Arroyo when the Resevior bust in La Paz.
I was in Loreto setting in a MotorHome with Tio Don. We had placed Lines around the Palapa Roof and tied them to the Ground with Stakes.
The Arroyo ran many Days after washing out 80,000 Tons of Gravel/Sand created the Sand Spit just South of Hotel Oasis.
WE found Coral Sankes, a Donkey still tied to a Post that came down from San Javier. The Debris piled up on the Beach about Three Feet, and extented out from the Shore 7 Miles .
I would also suggest to the people in Loreto to get prepared for Much Water and winds to at least 85 MPH if this Storm contuines on this Track.

The people of MiraMar should really be concerned as several years Past the two Arroyos were put together and directed toward th Space where the New Salbot Marina is to be Constructed.

Be Aware!
Skeet/Loreto

OK Skeet. This is as far as I got into this thread after looking at the storm track for the first time in about 8 hours. I will be watching this closely but maybe not for long as I need to prepare (including taking down my direcway antenna as its just over my palapa roof and I don't want it to get blown off and kill someone). Have a few questions though regarding some of your experience in Loreto with the hurricane Lisa:

I am currently home alone with two children and hy other half is south of Acapulco with his mom helping her to celebrate the passing of his grandmother and readying mom to come live with us. So I have to prepare myself although I will be hiring some rehab guys to help me tomorrow and friday...

how did you tie down your palapa roof? I live above Miramar on bedrock 8 inches down. Don't even know how I'd drive a stake into that. but when I built the roof we put in storm reinforcements.

also Miramar. I have a step-grandson there in a shack in a neighborhood that is in an arroyo below Savaats hill. sounds like I need to take them in for this. They live not far from the arroyo that usually floods (and is puddled up now) in the slightest rains.

do you remember tidal surges into town? I'm getting pretty concerned for my inventory and equipment in our shop in the center of town. I think I'll ask my landlord about the history of the building and if it had ever flooded.

Do you remember how far the center of the storm (Lisa) was when it passed by Loreto and how strong a storm it was?

Thank you,

Pam

Tomas Tierra - 8-30-2006 at 10:57 PM

Bajabus,

You may not be safe in North Carolina....Ernesto is on his way! My Sister in Durham is very nevous..

jerry - 8-30-2006 at 11:50 PM

pam noone can predick the future at best it can be hundreads of percent off sucure what you can put the top shelf items on the top shelf pack a big picknic basket and go up on the hill with your family you have the best indicator in the whole area your family this too will pass good luck jerry ps take misty and hers with ya

Skeet/Loreto - 8-31-2006 at 04:09 AM

Pam: Tio and I used large Rocks and Logs of Palm Trees, in fact we think the Dead Palm Logs did the Job. Cresscross the Lines and tie down at each Corner.
I would get the Kids to High Ground and stay between the Arroyo{on the Hill above the {Fishermans Church}. You will have to watch as Jordon will run full then hit the Seawall and go North to the outlet next to the Mission Hotel.The area of the Hotel Oasis is a fairly safe area.
I would try to stay somewhere in the High Area back of the entrance to Loreto.

As far as the Storm surge, there was no Seawall in 76 so would think that the Marina will get washedout if the South Surge Hits stronger than 85MPH.

The Track in Lisa Hit La Paz and then veered toward Villa Constitution toward the Pacific{Saved Wind Damage to Loreto}.
The major problems will be Water from the Mountains, closing of the Roads for maybe two Weeks of more! Stock up on Water for Drinking.
If it does not veer to the west just Hold on and Pray.

Skeet/Loreto

Hurricane John lashes Mexico's Pacific coastline

BajaNews - 8-31-2006 at 05:29 AM

http://www.gainesville.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/200608...

The Associated Press
August 31. 2006

PUERTO VALLARTA, Mexico - Hurricane John lashed tourist resorts with heavy winds and rain Wednesday as the dangerous storm marched up Mexico's Pacific coast, and forecasters predicted its center would brush close to land before nicking the tip of Baja California and heading out to sea.

The Category 4 hurricane could dump up to a foot of rain along parts of Mexico's southern coast, causing landslides or flooding, meteorologists warned. The hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 135 mph and stronger gusts capable of ripping roofs off buildings and causing storm surges of up to 18 feet above normal. It was expected to strengthen somewhat throughout the night Wednesday.

John was not expected to affect the United States - cooler Pacific waters tend to diminish the storms before they reach California. But a hurricane warning covered a more than 300-mile stretch of the Mexican coastline from the port city of Lazaro Card##as north to Cabo Corrientes, the southwestern tip of the bay that holds Puerto Vallarta.

The government also issued a hurricane watch for portions of the southern Baja Peninsula, from La Paz south on the east coast and from Sante Fe south on the west coast, an area which includes the resort city of Cabo San Lucas.

So far, the most damaging winds have remained offshore, and only tropical storm-force winds have hit the coast.

Skies were clear and tourists relaxed on the beach in Puerto Vallarta. But officials postponed the arrival of a Carnival cruise chip and prohibited customary tours of the bay.

Aniko Simon, 37, a tourist from Toronto, gathered with her family on the beach. She said she hadn't been aware there was a hurricane in the area until last night, when she saw a television news report. The family plans to return home Friday as scheduled.

William Rousseau, a tourist from Oregon vacationing with his family in Puerto Vallarta, said hotel officials warned about the hurricane "but we're calm because they say it's not going to hit this city."

"We're continuing to enjoy the city," he said. "They just asked us not to go into the ocean or on any bay tours."

Other tourists could be seen strolling through the streets visiting craft shops and eating in restaurants.

In Cabo San Lucas on the Baja Peninsula, there was more urgency, with fishermen and port authorities rushing to prepare for the hurricane, and local authorities setting up shelters.

"We are preparing shelters for the evacuation of civilians, if that becomes necessary," said Luis Armando Diaz, mayor of Los Cabos, situated on Baja's southern tip.

"According to the information we have, the storm is coming right toward Los Cabos."

Cabo San Lucas Port Captain Everardo Jimenez said he instructed the operators of a tourist boat to get the craft out of the water.

Back on the mainland and closer to the storm's current location, the area south of Lazaro Card##as to the resort of Acapulco was under a tropical storm warning. Tropical storm-force winds were lashing Lazaro Card##as and the resort of Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo.

Although the center of John was forecast to remain just offshore, hurricane-force winds were likely to begin raking beaches near Puerto Vallarta late Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. The storm was then expected to nick Los Cabos at the tip of the Baja California Peninsula on Friday before heading out to sea.

The Mexican army and emergency services were on alert all along the coast. The civil protection agency for the state of Jalisco, which includes Puerto Vallarta, announced it would ask 8,000 residents living in risk-prone coastal areas to evacuate voluntarily to 900 temporary shelters. Those who refused would be moved by police officers, the government agency Notimex reported.

Mexican forecasters predicted up to 10 inches of rain on the coast and "torrential downpours" in the Jalisco state capital of Guadalajara, Notimex said. Public schools were canceled in Acapulco and surrounding communities.

In the resort cities of Ixtapa and Zijuatanejo, about three hours up the coast from Acapulco, authorities closed the port to small ocean craft and set up temporary shelters. Some students decided to leave school early before any potential flooding.

Light rain fell in Ixtapa, where the five-star Emporio Hotel received only minor warnings of rising tides. Receptionist David Gonzalez said none of the hotel's 92 guests had said they would leave early.

Pedro Ochoa, reception clerk at the four-star Posada Real Ixtapa Hotel, said neither staff nor guests were making any special preparations for the storm because "we were advised that it was headed elsewhere."

The center of the hurricane Wednesday night was about 100 miles south of Manzanillo and its outer bands, packing heavy rain, were churning toward the resort and port city, according to the hurricane center. John was moving to the northwest near 16 mph. So far, the most damaging winds have remained offshore, and only tropical storm-force winds have hit the coast.

capitolkat - 8-31-2006 at 06:43 AM

Dear Friends-- I'm scheduled to arrive in Cabo next Thursday and spend some time there and up in La Paz where we have property. Like so many opportunities in life I've come to know some of you by your pposts here, and to be honest I like you.

My thoughts and prayers will be with you and my friends in La Paz. This looks like a monster coming your way and my best wishes for your preparations and health during these days.

Norm

4baja - 8-31-2006 at 06:55 AM

looks like johns path will be a direct hit on the tip as a cat. 4 dropping to a 3 after landfall. will see what happens to that new marina in san jose.

Al G - 8-31-2006 at 07:03 AM

Look at the size. I hope I am wrong,
but..... :no:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611_sat.h...

Bajabus - 8-31-2006 at 08:00 AM

Lou quaccia on the east cape road reports that everyone is busy securing their homes and that most are stocked up with supplies. Most All our satellite customers are linked and in touch with each other.
Ted goodman who never takes anything seriously is boarding up his house in Migrino for the first time in 11 years.

we should be getting reports from Cabo Pulmo, punta pescadero, Los barriles, vinorama, 5 palms and other locations around the tip.

Mexitron - 8-31-2006 at 08:24 AM

Good luck all of you down there; hang on tight, be safe.

Cypress - 8-31-2006 at 10:32 AM

Sandbags? If you're located along the coast with an elevation of less than 10' above sea level and this storm hits you, save your time and energy. Get any and all important papers, family pictures, valuables, etc. and head for high ground. Our prayers are with ya'll. Good luck.

another source of weather information

villadelfin - 8-31-2006 at 11:23 AM

www.cfe.gob.mx

the site is in spanish but they have some very informative graphics. They say that at the moment John will miss landfall.
Select your town on the drop down and check hurricanes and 3 day prognosis

Cypress - 8-31-2006 at 11:35 AM

Lencho. Are we talking about a major storm hitting Baja? Talking to who? Who the heck do you think I'm talking to?

Storm advice.

Cypress - 8-31-2006 at 01:25 PM

Did not intend to offend anyone. Sorry if my lack of language skills was misinterpreted Have seen one or two too many hurricanes. Only wanted to pass on some good advice.. Good luck to Larry and all in the storms path.

Bajabus - 8-31-2006 at 02:02 PM

having gone to Slidell 2 days after Katrina struck and spent 3 weeks in the area providing disaster communications I can attest to how powerful and quickly a storm surge can move in.

If the storm swings slightly toward the pacific then the back end of the storm will sweep up tremendous amounts of water at high tide into the numerous small bays/inlets along the east cape road.....that's a formula for disaster for many of the low lying homes and shacks that are along that road. Think venturi effect......only with water instead. A rapid increase in the velocity and height of the water is the result and the backwash is the icing on the top of the cake.

If I were not at least 30 - 50ft above sea level I would be seriously worried, even in a cement structure.

In waveland I met a distraught woman, she told a harrowing tale. A 1/4 mile inland her husband convinced her they were safe, in the middle of the night the water began rising quickly, within 15 mins they were on the roof of a 2 story home, minutes later the house washed out from under them. They held on for dear life in a tree for hours.....eventually her husband slipped away and drowned...pulled under by the debris in the backwash. the now bare slab that was her home was 28ft above sea level.

Nope...why take the chance. find high ground now with a neighbor and play it safe. My home is about 55 feet above the pacific at high tide and 219 meter back from the high tide mark.

John downgraded to Cat 2

Bajabus - 8-31-2006 at 02:11 PM

but it could intensify before hitting...looks like it may be a wee bit better for everyone. Big diff between a cat 2 and 4

tracking as of 5PM
john track

Latest Discussion

Hook - 8-31-2006 at 02:21 PM

Hurricane John Discussion Number 14

Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on August 31, 2006

Reports from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon
indicate that John is weaker than earlier intensity estimates. A
dropsonde in the eye measured a central pressure of 973 mb with a
20 kt surface wind...so the actual minimum pressure is actually a
little lower. Current intensity is set at 90 kt...in reasonable
agreement with a surface wind measurement from a GPS dropsonde in
the eastern eyewall. Aside from the eyewall replacement observed
yesterday...it is not clear why John has weakened so much. Perhaps
it was due to the interaction of the circulation with the
mountainous landmass of southwestern Mexico. Although John has
weakened...it still has a well-established upper-level outflow
pattern and there is an opportunity for some restrengthening before
the center reaches southern Baja California. Once John starts
moving away from the Baja Peninsula...it should begin traversing
significantly cooler sea surface temperatures and steadily weaken.
The initial motion is 315/11...slightly to the right of the previous
estimate. John continues to move along the southwestern periphery
of a middle- to upper-level ridge...with some possible interaction
with the smaller Hurricane...Kristy...located some 600 miles to its
west. Now that the GFDL model has shifted further to the left...
the track model guidance is now in better agreement on a track that
would take John near or over the southern Baja Peninsula...and then
takes John on a more westward track thereafter.
The Hurricane Warning has been extended a little northward along
both coasts of the Baja Peninsula. The wind radii have been
adjusted from the observations reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/2100z 20.7n 107.0w 90 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 21.8n 108.0w 95 kt
24hr VT 01/1800z 22.8n 109.4w 95 kt
36hr VT 02/0600z 23.5n 110.7w 90 kt
48hr VT 02/1800z 24.1n 112.2w 85 kt
72hr VT 03/1800z 24.7n 115.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 04/1800z 25.0n 119.0w 55 kt
120hr VT 05/1800z 25.0n 123.0w 40 kt

$$
forecaster Mainelli/Pasch

Bajabus - 8-31-2006 at 02:31 PM

Mark Rockwell from Elias calles reports the lines in Cabo at gas stations were over a hour long and at Sorina's he says all the checkers were working and it took him a hour and a half to get checked out,, not one parking spot in CCC. its raining in cabo now, got that from a neighbor that just called a friend there.

Report from San Jose

bajajudy - 8-31-2006 at 02:44 PM

Overcast and threatening but no wind nor rain yet.
The downgrade has given us some hope. As mentioned there is a heck of a difference in 2 and 4....
Needless to say, I probably wont be on line tomorrow.
Y'all think of me

Taco de Baja - 8-31-2006 at 02:45 PM

With the warm water in the SOC it would not surprise me if John makes a right at Cabo and goes up the Gulf rather than turning left like many are models predicting.....I hope not though, that warm water could also pump up wind speed.

bajawife - 8-31-2006 at 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajajudy
Overcast and threatening but no wind nor rain yet.
The downgrade has given us some hope. As mentioned there is a heck of a difference in 2 and 4....
Needless to say, I probably wont be on line tomorrow.
Y'all think of me

I've never been in a hurricane, nor do I want to...we will be thinking of you all there and waiting for your updates when you can.

bajajudy - 8-31-2006 at 02:55 PM

I just read my signature and decided to do a jig around my desk and I feel much better :saint:

comitan - 8-31-2006 at 03:02 PM

Judy

I believe we will all get through this just fine, because we prepare which is all you can do, You will probably be happy after the storm your new Marina will probably be gone, for sure cat 3-4. We are just starting to get clouds. The marine radio hear is going crazy, if you think you don't like a hurricane on land just think about the yachties, they can loose everything many do every hurricane.

Al G - 8-31-2006 at 03:04 PM

How true Judy, How true.
We will be worrying so sign on as soon as possible.

comitan - 8-31-2006 at 03:14 PM

Thousands ordered to flee Hurricane John
POSTED: 5:26 p.m. EDT, August 31, 2006
Adjust font size:
CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico (CNN) -- Government officials ordered the evacuation of 15,000 people from low-lying areas on the Baja California peninsula Thursday as Hurricane John approached, the state governor's office said.

Officials said residents would be evacuated from low-lying areas by force if necessary, and hotels were sending foreign tourists home, Reuters reported. (Watch Mexico brace for Hurricane John -- :58)

"We are evacuating everyone," Mithza Velazquez, concierge at the beachfront Hilton Hotel in Los Cabos, told Reuters. (Path)

John already has caused heavy flooding on Mexico's mainland between the popular tourist destination of Acapulco and the city of Manzanillo to the northwest.

The Mexican government warned residents along the coast to "rush to completion" protective measures for Hurricane John, as a hurricane warning was issued for the area from Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, northwest of Guadalajara. Islas Marias was included.

In its 5 p.m. ET advisory, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm was about 65 miles southwest of Las Islas Marias about 240 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.

"Preparations to protect life and property in these areas should have already been completed," the National Hurricane Center said, quoting the government.

Hurricane John was downgraded from a Category 3 storm to Category 2 Thursday afternoon, when its top winds weakened from 125 mph to 105.

A hurricane warning remained in effect for the southern Baja peninsula from San Everisto southward on the east coast and from Bahia Magdalena southward on the west coast.

A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within 24 hours.

A tropical storm warning remained in effect from San Blas to Mazatlan.

Mexican civil defense authorities said 10,000 residents were affected, including many in Acapulco, which has a population of 1 million.

In the fishing mecca of Cabo San Lucas, at the tip of Baja California, authorities said they were preparing shelters for the possible evacuation of 30,000 people. All flights from that area to the United States were nearly sold out, officials said.

The center of the hurricane was about 60 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes.

The storm was moving to the northwest at near 13 mph, a motion that was expected to continue for at least 24 hours. The center will move near or over southern Baja California on Friday, forecasters said.

Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 35 miles from John's center. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 105 miles.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 18 inches, were possible along the western coast of Mexico within the warning areas. These amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over areas of mountainous terrain, the hurricane center said.

Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 5 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected on the shores near the path of the center of the hurricane, it said.

John is the 10th named storm of the season in the eastern Pacific. Storms in the eastern Pacific are named separately from those in the Atlantic, the central Pacific or the western Pacific.

Last October, Hurricane Wilma pounded Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula with 125 mph winds and heavy rains. The Category 3 storm dealt a heavy blow to the tourism industry in Cancun, Cozumel and Playa de Carmen.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ernesto's maximum sustained winds reached 70 mph Thursday, just 4 mph short of Category 1 hurricane strength, as it lashed the eastern Carolinas. (Full story)

CNN's Chad Myers, Keith Oppenheim and Harris Whitbeck contributed to this report.

JESSE - 8-31-2006 at 03:24 PM

My guess is that since a third of the hurricane is inside the Mex mainland, once it leaves the mainland and has plenty of space and all the warm water, it will spring back to a category 3, and who knows, perhaps a 4.

Skeet/Loreto - 8-31-2006 at 03:42 PM

Jesse: You take care, Ya Hear!

Skeet/Loreto

Tides

oxxo - 8-31-2006 at 04:08 PM

Can anyone tell me what the magnitude and times of the tides are in the Los Cabos tomorrow? My condo is on the third floor so I should be okay there. But the bodega, which is packed full of stuff, is on the ground floor and it could get wet in there with the surge combined with a particularly high tide.

Thanks.

By the way, I am in California right now so not in personal danger. I am worried about our gringo and chollero friends there though. From reports they have given me, they are all properly hunkered down right now.

Stay safe, stay smart Cabo friends.

[Edited on 8-31-2006 by oxxo]

comitan - 8-31-2006 at 04:10 PM

oxxo

They are talking just a 5ft surge right now.

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