BajaNomad - The logic of rebuilding along Rio Mulege.

The logic of rebuilding along Rio Mulege.

Hook - 9-11-2006 at 12:51 PM

This post may generate some controversy, coming as close as it has on the heels of the latest disaster along there. But some may be contemplating this right now, as they wrest with the question.

There is certainly an appeal to living along the river. In a climate as arid as Baja, it truly has an oasis/tropical island feel. I have felt this from my first days long ago when I would stay at the Serenidad or the Orchard in tents or campers......or even a room, now and then. I've also slept in my vehicles out by El Sombrerito.

I readily admit that Mulege is my favorite place on the peninsula. Every trip down, I poke around for a potential place to buy/lease/rent/cajole in retirement.

But I have never really considered along the river. Even before Marty in 2003, it was clear that any structure along much of the river is only a temporary arrangement until the next deluge in the mountains above. It wouldn't even have to be a hurricane, necessarily.

Certainly, development in an area like along the rio wouldn't be allowed in the states. This area would have become a park or a golf course long ago in the US. But Mexico isn't the US, and thats a good thing to most of us.

Why is it, then, that people continue to rebuild along that stretch? Are they so tied to the land through the title/lease, whether they be Mexican or gringo, that they really have no choice but to tempt fate again?

I read that an elementary school and adjacent secondary school were also devastated. I dont think they were along the river but they were clearly in harms way. Can you imagine what might have happened if this had not occured on a Sunday morning? Is there any thought to relocating those schools?

Just wondering what the thinking is here.......

Cypress - 9-11-2006 at 01:17 PM

Building on a flood plain! The balance of some folks checking accounts exceed their IQ by multipule factors. Trust Funds? Daddy's money? Easy come, easy go. The "let the good times roll" attitude doesn't fit well when momma nature drops the hammer. Sometimes mother nature is a hard lady.

Conditionally agree with what you're saying

Hook - 9-11-2006 at 01:34 PM

...but if their bank account exceeded their IQ by that much, they wouldn't be interested in Mulege.

My sense has always been that most folks along the rio are pretty much working class, maybe upper middle class, at most. For most, the loss is a substantial amount.

Maybe it's tied to how expensive it would be to return to the US, with the way rents and real estate has gone. Probably lots of people on fixed incomes.

Or maybe the flood insurance is that reliable in Mexico???? I think I'd take the money and run....for higher ground.

But let's hear from some of the affected parties.

The Hook

Sharksbaja - 9-11-2006 at 01:41 PM

throws out the bait.

Cypress , evaluate this:moon:

Bob and Susan - 9-11-2006 at 02:43 PM

rule #1 never invest more than you can lose

RULE #2 get insurance

when sharks rebuilds he'll have another great place in a really great location

sharksbaja

mulege marv - 9-11-2006 at 03:08 PM

you got it ! if they ask why, they dont get it. im not taking the bait, or the hook, i only have one thing to say about this post.

mooning_bart_e0.gif - 27kB

Plain english

Sharksbaja - 9-11-2006 at 03:19 PM

on my other post

Don Alley - 9-11-2006 at 05:57 PM

Hook, you're going to have to put on some heavy wire leaders to fish this hole.

But I would guess that the insurance companies may be circling. They wasted no time reacting to the Tripui fire with limits on palapa insurance.

Hook

Baja Bernie - 9-11-2006 at 06:01 PM

This simple guy says you moved in where the lions would not chase, well you know those guys.

When I looked at the pictures that showed the highway bridge arching far above the river I knew!

cat127 - 9-11-2006 at 06:14 PM

How high (in ft) did the river crest at?

-Cat

Sharksbaja - 9-11-2006 at 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by cat127
How high (in ft) did the river crest at?

-Cat

About 22 ft at our place . I've heard it was higher a bit west but between The Orchard and the bridge I believe was it's deepest and also with the most force. I could be wrong, what do think Bruce?

[Edited on 9-12-2006 by Sharksbaja]

Bruce R Leech - 9-11-2006 at 07:57 PM

I cant Imagen that any that has houses to the east of the bridge or in some cases under it did know the risk when they bought or built it .I certainly told enough of them. they chose to have there houses there in spit of it . and allot will rebuild there houses in the same spot. what I cant understand is why anyone would not have insurance while living there. in the past 3 years we have had another hurricane and a mager fire and some close calls. I see Hooks point and also Bob and Susan's. and I think this is an important topic to discuss. I don't think Hook was trolling when he through out the post.

Hook - 9-11-2006 at 08:55 PM

Reliable insurance would explain a lot. It could be worth the risk, IF there is a reliable way of knowing when the flood is coming, so you can save life and limb.

Or, maybe the rebuilding is reasonable enough in Mexico that it's worth the risk?

Really do appreciate that some of you are willing to discuss this painful subject. Never have been certain of the internet definition of "trolling". I was just hoping to generate discussion of the motivation to rebuild by those affected.

Apologize for not "getting it", Marv......unless it is the beauty of the rio that I alluded to.

cat127 - 9-11-2006 at 09:01 PM

Okay I am a newbie ... that said.... why doesnt any build up? Here were we regularly have tsnuami threats and hurricanes - we gotta build up 12+ (to at least a 15+ grade elevation.) if you live on the ocean like we do. Then every one uses the space below for their lanai or carport..... mostly everyone goes up on 16 x16" chimney blocks with rebar and concrete filled, or sona tubes with same.

I understand that it wouldnt make a difference with a 22' crest but it would at least make buildable the places on the outer edges.

Just curious for all you old timers.....

(PS I also park my car facing out the gate so we could jump in and drive uphill when we feel the big quake!)

Bruce R Leech - 9-11-2006 at 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sharksbaja

Quote:

Originally posted by cat127
How high (in ft) did the river crest at?

-Cat

well I have studied that river for almost twenty years and gone through all the old records and their are some very interesting stuff . but the engineers reports from when they built the bridge say that that is the narrowest point so hence the most depth and velocity. the high point for this storm put the water a little more than a meter below the bottom of the bridge. but because of all the construction under and just to each side of the bridge and the friction callused by them the water is higher than it would have been up stream and lower down stream. then you have both the bounce effect and the meandering effect to consider. it gets kind of complicated. to simplify it the water hit the restriction of the bridge and buildings and damed back some then it broke through the walls at Jorge's park and storage Yard.rushed in through the park and bounced back to the other side and so forth until it got down river a ways so it kind of depends on where you are and I think Sharksbaja aka Corkys house caught a bounce.

according to the engineers report the flood of 59 the water was 2 meters higher in down town Mulege with much less restriction .
so what I am trying to say is they need to not build anything under the bridge and keep the river channel clean.

That makes of lot of sense Bruce

Sharksbaja - 9-11-2006 at 10:36 PM

What is the height at the bottom of the bridge? Any idea?

jerry - 9-11-2006 at 10:56 PM

hea sharks what was the total donations??

Money

Sharksbaja - 9-11-2006 at 11:04 PM

$2,836.23 USD but there is still one on a hold for $200.00

I am thrilled that the response was so good.

Just think, if more of those 18,550 folks who visited my website last week would have donated...wow.

hey not bad.... that's like 15.2 cents each

[Edited on 9-13-2006 by Sharksbaja]

Bruce R Leech - 9-12-2006 at 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by lencho

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
what I cant understand is why anyone would not have insurance while living there.

Man, I can't imagine any company in its right mind insuring such a risk. Well, I guess for high enough premiums it would be a safe gamble, but then who could afford it?

--Larry

actually Larry the cost is very low for this insurance .

I have learned that some insurance co. will not insure houses that are not totally closed in. this would include many houses along the river as totally closed in is not very practical here in Mulege.

jerry - 9-12-2006 at 06:54 AM

hea sharks perhaps you could update your Relief fund figures on your site??

Bob H - 9-12-2006 at 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech

Quote:

Originally posted by lencho

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
what I cant understand is why anyone would not have insurance while living there.

Man, I can't imagine any company in its right mind insuring such a risk. Well, I guess for high enough premiums it would be a safe gamble, but then who could afford it?

--Larry

Bruce, I read somewhere that this type of flooding only happens every 100 years or so. Maybe that's why the insurance is available.
Bob H

Don Alley - 9-12-2006 at 08:13 AM

Hook, my apologies if my earlier post suggested you were "trolling."

Years ago as a Trout Unlimited activist, they had me take a graduate level course on rivers and floodplains, I was on a state team that wrote and monitored the rules for riparian area logging, lobbied legislationon rural floodplain sewage treatment, etc etc, so I have a history of getting involved in trying to tell people what they shouldn't be doing in flood plains and it often becomes contentious.

Now Mexico is a different place, but two things to consider. One is that there is no government flood insurance. And as we learned in June with many home owner policies canceled without warning, homeowner insurance down ther may not be reliable. I'll bet the companies balk at insuring Mulage homes on the river. Second, the health department may be a factor. Okay, now I'm rigging with my steel leader....no, I'm not going to say it... somebody else will, maybe.

Hook - 9-12-2006 at 09:54 AM

No worries, Don.

I guess, in a sense, I was trolling for info...... but not a confrontation.

I also wasn't aware that Sharks had lost a home until after I posted this. Must have overlooked it or maybe confused by his board name and his real name. His reaction is understandable.

I think Cypress' reply might have gotten this discussion off on the wrong foot. But the mentality he describes does exist; that was my conditional agreement. It just doesn't seem like that mentality exists along the river; the gringo residents seem mostly like retired blue-collar people.

I really do feel this is a legitimate discussion that needs to be conducted. Maybe an outsider like me was not the best person to instigate it, though. I'm just a Mulege/S.R. area wannabe......but my job is still preventing that.

Now, I am wondering about the bridge. Has the Mexican Govt. conducted an engineering analysis to determine whether it is sound? Just because it is standing doesn't mean it hasn't been compromised. That was a lot of water.

[Edited on 9-12-2006 by Hook]

Bruce

Baja Bernie - 9-12-2006 at 10:59 AM

Even if one had insurance would this not be classified as an act of God by the insurers?

Bruce R Leech - 9-12-2006 at 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Baja Bernie
Even if one had insurance would this not be classified as an act of God by the insurers?

what isn't an act of God?

God bless you all

Bruce R Leech - 9-12-2006 at 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bob H

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech

Quote:

Originally posted by lencho

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
what I cant understand is why anyone would not have insurance while living there.

Man, I can't imagine any company in its right mind insuring such a risk. Well, I guess for high enough premiums it would be a safe gamble, but then who could afford it?

--Larry

according to the records this type of flood or larger can be expected every 30 years. we were 20 years overdue for this one.

actually Larry the cost is very low for this insurance .

I have learned that some insurance co. will not insure houses that are not totally closed in. this would include many houses along the river as totally closed in is not very practical here in Mulege.

Bruce, I read somewhere that this type of flooding only happens every 100 years or so. Maybe that's why the insurance is available.
Bob H

Sharksbaja - 9-12-2006 at 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by jerry
hea sharks perhaps you could update your Relief fund figures on your site??

Sure Jerry, let me get through my corporate taxes which are due the 15th. Most donors are Nomads FYI.. people who care.

comitan - 9-12-2006 at 12:39 PM

It seems as tho this would be a decision that will have to be made by each and every homeowner who lost their home and no one really has the right to say they should or shouldn't, since we are in Mexico and their are no laws against rebuilding in a flood plane I think Sharks would say you take your chances. And as far as a 100 year storm mother nature could very easily make it a 2 year storm

DENNIS - 9-12-2006 at 12:42 PM

Amazing resemblence to questions being asked about rebuilding New Orleans. I suppose resale will take a large hit but it wont last forever. The American buyer chooses to forget unfortunate events. The Punta Banda expropriatin debacle is evedince of that.

Later .... Dennis

Cypress - 9-12-2006 at 02:36 PM

comitan has nailed it! No excuses etc. You want to talk about storms? Katrina put the storm surge up to my family home's front door steps. We lucked out. Next time?

Skeet/Loreto - 9-12-2006 at 03:28 PM

Good Discussion:
If I may, I would like to direct you South for just a Bit> 1976 La Paz/Loreto.
This time Mulege.Every 30 Years???
Look at the Arroyos all along the Road, we are going to have storms.
I waited two weeks to Cross at El Rosairo-The very long Bridge had Water going over its Top, near San Quintin Trucks were buried with nothing but their Exhaust Pipes Showing.

In some of myPosts right after Loreto Bay Villages Opened, I ask the Question" What will Happen if Loreto gets Hit like "Lisa in 76"//

What I am trying to say --"Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained. Take a Risk.
We cannot go through Life with out suffering a Loss or Two and remember; It is only Marterials-Hopefully not Life!!!!

I would rebuild in A Minute! Mulege is Beautifull-I chose Loreto because there is a few less Bugs.

Skeet/Loreto

cat127 - 9-12-2006 at 05:37 PM

We live in "Lava Zone 1" and the tsnuami zone - the only insurer is Lloyd's of London.

-Cat

PovertyBay - 9-12-2006 at 06:07 PM

“What I am trying to say --"Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained. Take a Risk.
We cannot go through Life with out suffering a Loss or Two and remember; It is only Marterials-Hopefully not Life!!!!”

This sentiment almost perfectly encapsulates the dilemma of human perception and thought regarding natural hazards, including flood hazard. It is admirable to adopt an adventurous outlook, but what is missing is some judgment about the amount of risk being undertaken, and the consequences if the risky event should occur. For example, most of us wouldn’t consider walking across a busy freeway, but we might be willing to stroll across a quiet street in a small town. In the former case, it is very likely that we will be struck by a vehicle and, as a consequence, be killed as a result of a high-speed impact. In the latter case, it is unlikely that we will be struck and, even if we are, the risk to life is small because of the likelihood of low impact speed. Similarly with flood hazard, in different meteorologic and geologic settings, the likelihood of a damaging event varies, and the danger to life and property varies in terms of depth and velocity of flows, presence of large debris, etc.. With regard to the likelihood of occurrence a flood, it should be noted that this is a rather random phenomenon. That is, in any given year a flood is just as likely to occur as it is in any other year. A 100-year flood is not, as often believed, something that occurs once in 100 years, with the result that we don’t have to worry about such a flood for another 99 years if one just occurred. In fact, a 100-year flood is one which has an annual probability of occurrence of one in a hundred, and the statistical odds of one 100-year flood occurring during a 100-year time period are approximately 2 in 3. The point is that we humans tend to forget that this risk exists each and every year, despite the fact that a gully washer hasn’t occurred in recent memory. Then there is the issue of consequences. In some settings, the occurrence of a rare flood event doesn’t create extreme hazard to humans – velocity is low, depths are shallow, etc.. In other settings, the occurrence of an extreme flood can generate conditions that are virtually certain to pose high risk to life and property. In the case of New Orleans, for example, a condition (however rare or unlikely) causing a levee to be overtopped or to breach was virtually certain to lead to disastrous loss of life and property.

There are two facets to the dilemma faced by the lay person. The first is the tendency to overlook or forget about flood hazard. The second is the lack of knowledge about either the annual risk or the severity of the hazard. In many areas of the world, the technology and expertise exist to define the probability and severity of flood risk, and to communicate this information to the public. The U.S. is particularly fortunate in this regard, thanks in large measure to FEMA, despite their often negative public image. In developed countries, policy is developed by regulators to limit or not allow development in areas where floods are highly likely to occur and where very dangerous conditions would result from their occurrence. This approach has been taken precisely because the average citizen is often unable or unwilling to determine the nature of the hazard and act to avoid it.

In lesser developed nations, the knowledge of flood hazard is rarely available to citizens, or is not highly refined, being based largely on anecdotal evidence. This lack of knowledge makes it virtually impossible to develop and enforce effective policy that could prevent placing humans at risk. The net result, then, is that in communities such as Mulege, individuals must make their own judgments about what the risk of flooding is, and what the nature of the damage is that they might suffer, then decide for themselves whether or not they are willing to take that gamble. In summary, “nothing ventured, nothing gained” is a fine philosophy, providing the individual understands what is being “ventured.”

Not too many idiots

Sharksbaja - 9-12-2006 at 06:28 PM

around Mulege who don't realize the potential there or so many other places. It's a known fact of life there.

No, I would not raise my children in a flood plane. Yes, I lost a gamble. Humbling but not ending.

You don't walk across freeways anyway, you run because you DO know the ramifications of being slow, :yes:

Would this assessment be true for any gulf state that faces storm surge. That is a diffrent animal than runoff.

I guess if your not somewhat of a gambler, then stay out of the game. This could go on and on........................

Bruce R Leech - 9-12-2006 at 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sharksbaja
around Mulege who don't realize the potential there or so many other places. It's a known fact of life there.

No, I would not raise my children in a flood plane. Yes, I lost a gamble. Humbling but not ending.

You don't walk across freeways anyway, you run because you DO know the ramifications of being slow, :yes:

I think you have it figured out Corky :bounce:

Baja Bernie - 9-12-2006 at 08:15 PM

Look around you and see how many Mexicans share you desire to build in flood plains.

Unfortunately

Sharksbaja - 9-12-2006 at 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Baja Bernie
Look around you and see how many Mexicans share you desire to build in flood plains.

Many.
They just don't reside in the Gringo enclaves as we do.
They reside in the valley west.

Sharksbaja

PovertyBay - 9-12-2006 at 09:27 PM

Storm surge is no different than riverine flood risk. Whatever the physical processes involved, there is an annual risk of occurrence of the associated hazard, and a means to predict the associated dangers for humans. The technology for predicting storm-surge hazard is approximately as well developed as that for riverine flood hazard.

I can understand that Bangladeshis are so desperate for survival that 500,000 of them who tried to squat on islets of the Ganges River disappeared in the cyclone of 1970, and a further 140,000 of them who tried to re-inhabit the area disappeared in the cyclone of 1991. They were/are desperate. This desperation might even apply to Mexicans in poverty in Mulege in 2006. Are you saying that others who ignore the risks are equally desperate, are unaware of the risks, or simply don’t care?

Thought he made it pretty clear, PB

Hook - 9-12-2006 at 09:43 PM

He considers it an ACCEPTABLE risk. It's a concept that anyone who lives or travels in Baja is familiar with.

PovertyBay - 9-12-2006 at 09:51 PM

Do you suppose that the citizens of New Orleans thought they were faced with an UN-ACCEPTABLE risk, pre-Katrina?

Bruce R Leech - 9-13-2006 at 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by PovertyBay
Do you suppose that the citizens of New Orleans thought they were faced with an UN-ACCEPTABLE risk, pre-Katrina?

I hope so they talked about it for years before it finally happened. then they had a 7 day notice and they stayed anyway. :?:

Hook - 9-13-2006 at 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by PovertyBay
Do you suppose that the citizens of New Orleans thought they were faced with an UN-ACCEPTABLE risk, pre-Katrina?

Which potentially unacceptable risk are you referring to......living there or fleeing their homes, in the face of the evacuation orders?

In both cases, I guess I wouldn't know. You'd have to ask them.

I am asking the people affected by THIS disaster.

You appear to be fishing for a political fight, IMO.....

Sharksbaja - 9-13-2006 at 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by lencho

Quote:

Originally posted by Sharksbaja
Yes, I lost a gamble. Humbling but not ending.

Did you really? Maybe it was just a high-rent district. How many years did you enjoy there?

--Larry

the correct verb should not be "did" but rather, "will", Larry. Hopefully many more, were not out of the game yet. And I should have stated "we".

Hook, please excuse my retort, been a bad week.

Cypress - 9-13-2006 at 10:47 AM

Rebuilding in a flood zone. #1 Get the elevations. Maximum height of any previous flood events. #2 Build with that in mind. Have friends that lived on a flood plane, their house was on pilings. They came and went by boat for X number of days every year. The situation along the river in Mulege is different, a short term event, but the river will spill out of it's banks. Two weeks or two hours, if you're not prepared, the results will be the same. My sentiments to any and all that are udergoing the painful process of cleanup etc. in the aftermath of John.

risks

mulege marv - 9-13-2006 at 11:38 AM

we use to live in the sierra nevada moutains, every summer we where faced with forest fires and we were close to evacuation many times.
the people in san fransico face the risk of "the big one" at anytime, and it happens (i think they rebuild everytime)
midwest has tornadoes.

i think i will stay in mulege, for reasons to many to explain!!

bob-1_e0.gif - 8kB

Skeet/Loreto - 9-13-2006 at 12:02 PM

Poverty Bay;
Born and Raised in the Rattlesnake Capitol of the World.Been handling RattleSnakes since I was about 5 years old- No Bites yet-Now 75 yrs. Young!
Survived the 1949 Toronado in Amarillo Texas -7 people died-I was in the Middle of it and observed a Story and a Half of a House go over the Car I was in.
Helped save a Young Man when a Flash Flood came across Hwy 40 near Seligman AZ.

Survived the Earthquake in Oakland/San Francisco.

Survived Hurricane Lisa in 1976 setting in a Motorhome in Loreto.

Does the above Experience qualify me as a "Lay Person"

Skeet/Loreto

Bruce R Leech - 9-13-2006 at 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by mulege marv
we use to live in the sierra nevada moutains, every summer we where faced with forest fires and we were close to evacuation many times.
the people in san fransico face the risk of "the big one" at anytime, and it happens (i think they rebuild everytime)
midwest has tornadoes.

i think i will stay in mulege, for reasons to many to explain!!

good for you Marv. 1 year from now Mulege is going to be better than ever, and the economy is already booming.

Hook -- I thought you started off this thread with some good, if difficult, questions:

PovertyBay - 9-13-2006 at 03:57 PM

“Why is it, then, that people continue to rebuild along that stretch? Are they so tied to the land through the title/lease, whether they be Mexican or gringo, that they really have no choice but to tempt fate again?

I read that an elementary school and adjacent secondary school were also devastated. I don’t think they were along the river but they were clearly in harms way. Can you imagine what might have happened if this had not occurred on a Sunday morning? Is there any thought to relocating those schools?”

All I’m saying is that we tend to build and re-build in places like this partly out of the indomitable human spirit, but also partly out of a lack of understanding about (or refusal to acknowledge and accept) the risks involved. Rather than criticizing the choices that some would make, I’m lamenting the fact that they don’t know the whole story at the time they make the choices, but have to live with the consequences anyway. Skeet is obviously an “expert” when it comes to facing and surviving natural hazards, and he has an admirable outlook on life. However, when deciding whether to build, where to build and how to build in a flood-prone area, he might benefit greatly if he were also an expert in floodplain hydraulics and hydrology. (Perhaps he is and just hasn’t confessed.) There are professionals who devote their entire careers to this endeavor, and have access to powerful technology and historical records that they can analyze in gory detail. Again, all I’m saying is that, in the absence of this latter kind of expertise, we should be very careful in making decisions relating to living with natural hazards. My comment regarding New Orleans was meant to point out that the citizens there were comfortable with their lot prior to Katrina, and they knew quite a bit about the risks there because of a long flood history. They thought they knew enough about the risks, which appeared to be acceptable, so people chose to live and develop there. Turns out they didn’t know as much as they thought they did. That doesn’t mean that New Orleans, or Mulege, shouldn’t be re-built, but we should think long and hard about how, and to what degree re-building should occur.

Skeet/Loreto - 9-13-2006 at 06:27 PM

Bay: Excellent words. However we sometimes forget that there are "Sharks" out there who sell Property to the Popluace who are taken in by the Sales Pitch--Around Seattle Wa. where many homes were built and Sold in a Swamp--
Malbu Beach- Homes built on a Cliff-Later to Fall.

Very good Ideas, but the General Public is not interested in the Location other than the Cultural/Prestige etc.Good Ideas!
Skeet

Hook you posted about The logic of rebuilding along Rio Mulege.

Bruce R Leech - 9-13-2006 at 07:22 PM

there are all kinds of people in this world and they live there lives in all kinds of deferent ways. and I no any one else is able to say which is the right way only what works for me. I have always been the practical type of person. but I know many who are more romantic or more risk takers and I often admire these people and there life stiles.

A good Life is not how many breaths you take it is how many times Beautiful things or People have taken your breath away .

[Edited on 9-14-2006 by Bruce R Leech]

cat127 - 9-13-2006 at 09:27 PM

I think if I already had property in Mulege - my stance would be to rebuild on piers in the flood zone but rebuild the schools on high ground!

-Cat

Al G - 9-13-2006 at 09:52 PM

“Why is it, then, that people continue to rebuild along that stretch? Are they so tied to the land through the title/lease, whether they be Mexican or gringo, that they really have no choice but to tempt fate again?"
You are so far off there is no way to give you a clue.
I have not said anything yet, but I am waiting for someone like you ready to fire sale so I can move in. Life is only what you want it to be. I suggest Baja is to much of a risk for you.
I have a feeling there will not be many sales. I am sure you will not understand that.

[Edited on 9-14-2006 by Al G]

Skeet/Loreto - 9-14-2006 at 02:42 AM

Al G:/Hook

I will take all Bets that Mulege will rebuild, it will even be Bigger and Better in the next few years.
There are some who are "Leaders and Risk Takers, There are others who are "Followers" such as "Monday Morning Quarterbacks" !

Spectators and Participants.

Which shall you Be????.

Skeet

Cypress - 9-14-2006 at 09:35 AM

I'm all for rebuilding, but build with memories of "John" and thoughts of future storms in mind. The structures thats survived will face the same or more extensive damage in future storms. The next weather event could be worse.

Bruce R Leech - 9-14-2006 at 10:27 AM

Mulege will be better than ever in less than 1 year

Al G - 9-14-2006 at 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Al G
“Why is it, then, that people continue to rebuild along that stretch? Are they so tied to the land through the title/lease, whether they be Mexican or gringo, that they really have no choice but to tempt fate again?"
You are so far off there is no way to give you a clue.
I have not said anything yet, but I am waiting for someone like you ready to fire sale so I can move in. Life is only what you want it to be. I suggest Baja is to much of a risk for you.
I have a feeling there will not be many sales. I am sure you will not understand that.

[Edited on 9-14-2006 by Al G]

Although I did not directly say, but this reply was directed to Poverty Bay. I used Hook's quote to say I am one that would build wisely in an area as is Mulege'

When you say "wisely"

Sharksbaja - 9-14-2006 at 01:54 PM

Do you mean up in the desert away from the rio and shade or do you mean like; build a stout house with a high loft? Curious.

Al G:

PovertyBay - 9-14-2006 at 01:58 PM

I'm all in favor of wise building. I hope you are able to do so in a way that will safely allow you to continue to enjoy the wonders of Mulege.

Cypress - 9-14-2006 at 02:12 PM

Building wisely is not building ground level on a flood plain. What's so hard about that to understand?

Hook - 9-14-2006 at 02:14 PM

Many of you are assuming that I dont think Mulege will rebuild. No, I think they will. Just looking for their motivation on why they plan on rebuilding in the same location.

So far, the responses have been insurance allows it, the location is worth the risk and something along the old mantra of never investing more than you can afford to lose.

What about the lease/title issue? How much does being committed to a lease affect your thinkiing? Is it so much that you really cant walk away? I haven't a clue what land is like down by the river, in terms of cost.

Particularly curious about the situation in the Orchard Vacation Village. I wasn't real clear on what that was when they began marketing it as such. I only went there when it was Huerta Saucedo RV Park. Is it now a time share kind of thing? Who is responsible for the rebuilding?

Bruce R Leech - 9-14-2006 at 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Cypress
Building wisely is not building ground level on a flood plain. What's so hard about that to understand?

it could be Look at Sharkbajas place that place took the full brunt of the flood and is in pretty good shape. all he needs is to shovel it out and he has a house.

you can engineer a house to withstand almost anything if you build wisely. and don't cut corners like they did on the house next to him that was flattened.

ie;

Sharksbaja - 9-14-2006 at 02:33 PM

rebar, backfill, tie-downs, anchors.

No Hook, full title with federal concessions to the rio. Some do lease from Roberto. Most lease thru the office there as residences cannot assume corporate role. I don't know if some people have multiple units which could be assets for a bonafide corp.

[Edited on 9-14-2006 by Sharksbaja]

Al G - 9-14-2006 at 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sharksbaja
Do you mean up in the desert away from the Rio and shade or do you mean like; build a stout house with a high loft? Curious.

Wisely: In the Rio.
1) Base structure hella strong.
2) Maybe a curling diverting wall. (I'm only mentally engineering it now)
3) Not building a monument to myself
4) I will not be a pack rat so I can empty house quick.
5) Use a range, refrigerator, water heater, and A/C that are easy to move and installed with that in mind.
6) Always have my Motorhome ready as it is now!!
7) have a box trailer ready so your belongings can keep it from blowing away. :lol:

8) You could use quick release hinges on your man doors.
I could go on and on, but you get the ideal. There still going to be loss, but you cannot worry about that.
The real thing you should worry about is getting lazy during hurricane season. If you see anything like whats coming up the pike now(Lane) get your butt moving. If you cannot look at it as an adventure, then maybe it is not for you.
BTW nails are not good learn to screw everything. :lol:

Al G - 9-14-2006 at 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hook

What about the lease/title issue? How much does being committed to a lease affect your thinking? Is it so much that you really cant walk away? I haven't a clue what land is like down by the river, in terms of cost.

I don't think it is something material, more a commitment to a life style. Just MHO, because I don't now reside there.

Sharksbaja - 9-14-2006 at 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Al G

Quote:

Originally posted by Sharksbaja
Do you mean up in the desert away from the Rio and shade or do you mean like; build a stout house with a high loft? Curious.

Please be our neighbor..... :yes:

Bruce R Leech - 9-14-2006 at 06:29 PM

yes Corky If you could get him to build on that empty lot just to the west of you he would brake the water for your house. :light:

Sharksbaja - 9-14-2006 at 06:31 PM

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh :lol:

Al G - 9-14-2006 at 06:39 PM

I won't tell anyone! :lol:

SharonT - 9-14-2006 at 07:23 PM

Our house in the Oasis, a block off the river, withstood the flood just fine. That is the house, but not everything inside. This is the first time in 20 years any damage or flooding.

So, yes, we will clean up and restock. We are shopping garage sales to replace the inside possesions, but that is how we furnished in the first place.

We consider ourselves lucky to have the means to replace. Yes, we have insurance, but we would come back anyway.

cat127 - 9-15-2006 at 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Cypress

you can engineer a house to withstand almost anything if you build wisely. and don't cut corners like they did on the house next to him that was flattened.

Actually cut the corners literally.... round shape will withstand water pressure more than than square........

-Cat

[Edited on 9-16-2006 by cat127]

Skeet/Loreto - 9-16-2006 at 02:43 AM

Sharks:
Keep up the Good Works!

Live your Life as everyday as if it was your Last Day!
ADVENTURE- In your mind, do not let Fear of the Future Control your Life.

For some, living in Mulege-Baja Sur, means the fullfillment of Their Dreams,for others the Escape from Reality.-No matter, Just Live.

The Material things can be replaced, the Adventure can bring you Peace.

As I sit here on my Computer reading the words of all of the Adventureous Souls, my Heart and Mind are with you.-An Ole Timer who shares with you those Trials of Life,wishing I could be There once again!! But as my Mother use to tell me:
"If Wishes Were Horses we would All Ride to Town"

God Bless All who Ride and Walk!

Skeet/Loreto

capn.sharky - 12-21-2006 at 11:37 PM

If you are going to build along an arroyo or a river, I would build an ark. Here in Upland I have seen the mountains on fire many times. As soon as it is put out, the idiots move back and build again. They are fine until the next fire comes. Same goes for Mexico. Why build where you know you will be flooded out --- sooner or later. Just my opinion......

toneart - 12-22-2006 at 02:50 AM

Being that this string has been revisited, I have decided to weigh in. Maybe I can answer some of the questions.

Several issues have been brought up:
Some are issues specific to living along The Mulege river. Other issues are general, such as the psychology of building or rebuilding in a potential disaster zone....like "What in the hell were you thinking"?
Then there is the even more specific issue of rebuilding in The Orchard.

The Orchard was and is an actual orchard. About 20 years ago it was bought by Roberto Saucedo and made into an RV Park. This was accomplished while actually saving many of the original trees and planting new trees. He told me that he bought it as a business for his parents to operate. Roberto, his mother and sister still live there.

When the Jesuits first settled there and built the mission over 300 years ago, they brought seeds from Spain and planted the Date Palm trees that are so prevalent today. They grow in forests along the river. They are absolutely breathtaking. It is amazing to see such an oasis of palm and fruit trees along a beautiful river teeming with pelicans, herons and jumping fish. This is in a desert!!! The mouth of the river, a half mile downstream, flows into the Sea Of Cortez.

Roberto is a dreamer and a visionary. However, his business acumen is a topic that will not be discussed here. :no:

Roberto designed and built some very unique houses along the river and later continued around the property, eventually circling the orchard. One of those houses on the river is Corky's (Sharksbaja). I don't know why his house withstood total destruction while the house next door didn't. I think the house next door was not as well built...that is, less steel. It also was the first house to take the hit, backing up to vacant land which became the new river course. Many houses along the river survived while others were destroyed.

About four years ago Roberto began to fill the interior of The Orchard with casitas which were a new design. These were being built in what were large RV spaces. They were beautiful. They were built of cinderblock fortified with lots of rebar. The exteriors were stuccoed and the interior walls were plaster. They had tile floors, custom cabinets, decorative tile and an upper story loft that is quite roomy. The casitas were tall, with pointed, red-tiled roofs. During the flood the river went right through these as well. Mine is one of the new casitas. It had 10 feet of standing water inside; nasty, muddy fecal filled water that stood in there for 24 hours before receding and leaving two feet of mud inside. I only got to live in mine for four months.

All houses suffered extensive damage from the muddy water. Those who were there said "a thirty foot wall of water, carrying debris from houses upriver, boats, RVs, trailers, refrigerators, propane tanks,horses, cows, pigs, fish and sewage slammed into our houses", and ruined everything inside and outside, however many of the structures are still there.

Why rebuild? The structures are still there. They are getting cleaned out and refurnished. Many people, including myself had insurance. It was very inexpensive and included flood coverage. The fact that it was so inexpensive was a calculated risk by the insurance company. There hadn't been a flood of any great consequence since 1957, and then there were no houses, or at least, not any of the houses that are there now.

Roberto speaks fluent English with all the American idioms and practically no accent. He understands our culture. He was from Tijuana and had schooling in San Diego. And.....he is a charmer!
Yes, he sold us houses in a flood plain. There was no mention of the potential of a flood of this magnitude. There was some flooding three years ago and brought mud into the houses, but they were all easily cleaned out. I truly believe that Roberto didn't believe that there would be a flood like this one that came with Hurricane John. He had his own house, his mother's house and his rentals and....his life there.

These new houses he built were beautiful and very reasonable. It was a package deal and included a fideocomiso for the land portion. He had made a legal subdivision so each lot was a separate parcel.

Mulege itself is still an unspoiled Mexican town....yes there are many gringos, and lots of tourists, and it is right on Highway 1. But it is not built up as a resort. It has unbelievable beauty and great fishing. There are some great restaurants as well as great taco stands. The locals really are not all that impressed with us gringos. They don't make many concessions to our lifestyle. They just go about their business much the same way they always have.

Well, you just can't walk away from a place like this. It is a calculated risk, but what are the chances? I figure I got the bad luck over with in the first year. It may happen again next year, or in a hundred years, but who knows if I will still be kicking....or for that matter....will any of us the way things are going outside of Mulege? Looking at the rest of the world, I think I'll take my chances right here, come hell or high water. :yes:

Summanus - 12-22-2006 at 07:54 AM

Of course people will always build along the water...whether it's on a tsuami beach or the Old Miss. What's to explain?

Ah..the Orchard history saga. Here is some Orchard history trivia for you. Does anyone remember the name, Lydell?..and what happened to him?

Phil S - 12-22-2006 at 10:22 AM

My grandparents built on a river in Oregon. They went through I think 5 floods in the 55 years they lived in the house. Always having to clean up somewhere around two to three feet of mud each time. Plus a daylight basement she used as a canning room. My parents built twice on different rivers for a vacation home. Each flooded several times over the years. Mentality was clean it up & move back in. The quality of living on the river far exceeds the occational 'inconvenience'. In l978 I built on a river, and saw many "scary" times. Almost to the foundation. Never once did I say, "I'm getting out of here". Lived there 20 years. My brother bought a home on the same river. Several years prior it had three feet of water in it. Didn't stop him from buying the home. Though the water has covered the floor once since, he's still living there. Three friends from my home town bought property on the Rio Mulege. One built a new home. Another remodeled a home. Another bought one in an r.v. park. The last one went through the 3 years ago flood with four feet of water I believe.. Cleaned it up & moved back in. This time there was 10 feet of water. Causing his roof to collapse from the weight of the mud as the water receded. Everything in the home was destroyed. BUT, they have cleaned it out. Rebuilt the roof structures, and will be moving back in soon. Bajasharks knows the reason why we do it. Guess we are 'risk takers'. Others are more conservative & are not 'risk takers'. Believe me. It is not "fun" to have to clean up after a flood. But!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

abreojos - 12-22-2006 at 10:45 AM

Now this is the perfect place for the don't invest any more than you can afford to loose philosophy. Even if you can get cheap insurance that covers just about everything, you still loose the use of your home for awhile. The river is a real gem among the desert and Mulege definatly offers a lot of quality services and great people.
How did that really cool house with the palms sticking through the roof by the bridge fair the flood? I haven't been up there this year.

Bruce R Leech - 12-22-2006 at 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Summanus
Of course people will always build along the water...whether it's on a tsuami beach or the Old Miss. What's to explain?

Ah..the Orchard history saga. Here is some Orchard history trivia for you. Does anyone remember the name, Lydell?..and what happened to him?

knew him well

he was Deported

toneart - 12-22-2006 at 12:32 PM

I didn't want to go there with negativity because it would hijack the direction of this string. :no:

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech

Quote:

knew him well

he was Deported

Stickers - 12-22-2006 at 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by toneart
My Mulege Casita

http://media.pixpond.com/10lbxzo.jpg

I have been tryng to post this photo for a long time. I have downsized it. I have tried to copy and paste. I have tried through Mozilla Firefox and got a popup saying it only works in Explorer. So I tried it through Explorer. Cannot copy and paste. I have uploaded it to pixpond and this is the best I have been able to do. I want it to be larger here. How do you do that and still comply with the downsizing rules?

[Edited on 12-22-2006 by toneart]

Looks beautiful but very very little. :spingrin:

Don Alley - 12-22-2006 at 02:52 PM

Quote:

Looks like you have posted the image adress of the picture's thumbnail, not the pictue.

Sorry I have a Mac so I can't help you step by step (unless you have a mac too).

First, open up the picture in a photo application (program). Many of today's digital pics are huge, use this photo program to lower the size of the pic so it fits in a post. Try to make the file size smaller too, not as small as BajaNomad rules, but maybe 75-150 k.

Then upload the pic to a picture hosting site. Do not attach to your post. You can keep many pictures on these sites and they make a good backup for storing pictures, refering friends to pictures, posting pictures, etc. Google "picture hosting" and you'll find a bunch. Some are free, some charge a small fee.

OK, once you have the picture on the photo host board, you need to get the picture's address. I get mine by first clicking on the pic on the photo host site to bring up the full size pic from the thumbnail. Then, I right-click on the pic, and find the address. Some browsers, when you right click, give you the option to "copy image address." That works. Or, "get image properties" and among those properties is the image address. Or, "open image in new window" and then copy the address on the address bar at the top of the browser.

OK, now that you have that address, on your bajanomad "post reply" page there is an icon that looks like this:

Click on it, and paste or type your address into the field. That's it.

Cypress - 12-22-2006 at 02:58 PM

Rebuild!

What else are you gonna do? :?:

Make it better, stronger, don't think the water could get any higher than it was. Jeez, how could it? Would have to raise the level of the whole Sea of Cortez.

toneart - 12-22-2006 at 03:15 PM

Ok, I figured it out...duh!

Bruce R Leech - 12-22-2006 at 03:26 PM

Wow you did a fantastic job of cleaning up after the flood. you have worked very hard as many have sense the flood.

it dose flood higher in 59 it was more than 7 feet higher, and there were bigger floods farther back. could be global worming that is making the floods smaller and feather apart :lol:

Cypress - 12-22-2006 at 04:33 PM

7' higher than this last flood!!!

That was one bad storm!

bajalou - 12-22-2006 at 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
could be global worming that is making the floods smaller and feather apart :lol:

I think you got it figured out Bruce - that global warming is causing everything in the world to happen. My wife thinks that it is causing less chipmunks to be seen in the yard - and only one at a time. What next?????

Bruce R Leech - 12-22-2006 at 05:58 PM

I know that global warming is callusing a lot of the problems around my household.

Tony is spot-on

Sharksbaja - 12-22-2006 at 06:21 PM

About the Orchard. Those who can do and know business have no problem dealing with Roberto in the Orchard. His endearing charisma is hard to forget. His vision acute. He may drag his heals on some things but I've done biz with him and he's made good on all between us, and vice-versa.
The people who have a choice of where to own a home or second home seek certain requirements. To us a tropical atmosphere in an unspoiled setting were top of the list. Had I not already been a long-time Mulege affectionada we would have shopped elsewhere possibly.
As mentioned, every niche on this planet holds some sort of danger. Maybe the odds for calamity are higher in arroyos than that of higher desert but then, it's a trade-off ain't it.
Give me the beauty and solice anytime. I'll work for it. I'll try to save it if need be, as you would your home, just don't expect me to become some paranoid uptight visitor.
Vistor??? Yep, that's reality.

Never pretend to be sumpin' yer not, like Mexican.

MERRY XMAS

and Happy Holidays!

[Edited on 12-23-2006 by Sharksbaja]

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