BajaNomad

another EL NINO SEASON ?

FARASHA - 9-18-2006 at 11:11 AM

Recently one of the BAJA Nomads made this remark (on a thread I can't recall) that THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER EL NINO Season to be expected.
Who else thinks so, and what do you know from experience, from the Years here on the BAJA, that this might happen.

Taco de Baja - 9-18-2006 at 12:38 PM

NOAA thinks so.....

El Nino Link
Quote:

Synopsis: El Niņo conditions have developed and are likely to continue into early 2007.

Over the past several months most of the statistical and coupled model forecasts have trended towards warmer conditions in the tropical Pacific through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The latest NCEP coupled forecast system (CFS) predictions indicate El Niņo conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into the NH spring 2007

Typical El Niņo effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and most of the U.S.-affiliated islands in the north tropical Pacific.


Also some of the higher temps we saw this Summer (in CA anyway) may have been due more to the little rascal, El Nino, than to so called man-made global warming.

Along the west coast of Southern California. and Baja, El Nino winters are typically wetter than average....So make sure your roof doesn't leak.

Cypress - 9-18-2006 at 12:52 PM

El Nino? The experts predicted a higher than average hurricane season over in the Atlantic. With about 3 weeks left in the season, they said it was gonna be less than normal. How much $$$ was spent on that deduction? Anybody could have figured that out! Wish I could receive a paycheck for second-guessing the weather.:tumble::tumble:

FARASHA - 9-18-2006 at 11:01 PM

Thank you for the LINK Taco de Baja, it's appreciated.
One of the reason I've asked - I had this in the back of my head for the last 2 weeks.
And when I read this remark from a B Nomad I thought - well maybe I'm not that stupid after all.
I've been early 98 during El Nino in the LA area and also in BCS/La Paz area when it was pretty rough and wet.
So, watching all the Hurricanes going round, and the warming up of the tropical sections on the Satellite images, I had this growing sense - for El Nino.
My Question is now - IS THIS ALWAYS resulting in an El Nino Season, with wat is going on now??
What has to be expected?
Cypress - you seem to bee the Wizzard here!
Let me pick you brain!!
NOAA is maybe a good info site with great images and archives, but the bones of my granny have been more acurate, then any forecasters.
Not anybody seems to have your expertises ( surely not ME)

[Edited on 19-9-2006 by FARASHA]

Cypress - 9-19-2006 at 06:36 AM

Farasha, Picking my brain would be "slim pickens":biggrin:.

Taco de Baja - 9-19-2006 at 10:37 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Cypress
El Nino? The experts predicted a higher than average hurricane season over in the Atlantic. With about 3 weeks left in the season, they said it was gonna be less than normal.


Recent talk is that there were less hurricanes this year because of El Nino......Boy, this kid sure gets around and messes with things.
I wonder how many climate change models incorporate this little guy, and If they do, how often do they shove him in the mix? every 5, 7, 10, years? and how strong is he when they input him? How about his 'evil twin' La Nina? Both can radically effect weather all across the globe for a year, all naturally, with no input from man-made chemicals, and then things can go back to 'normal' the next year.

Strange world we live in :yes:

I like my rock hanging on a string weather predictor:
if it is moving, it is windy
if you can't see it, it is foggy
if it is wet, it's raining
if it is covered in white fluffy stuff, it's snowing
if it is hot, it is sunny and hot
if there are ice-sickles on it, it is cold

Mexitron - 9-19-2006 at 10:57 AM

Taco--was it El Nino that gave you the 60 degree water in Baja, no surf, and one heat wave in California? The El Nino I know had uber-warm water and a nice southerly ground swell pushing into the Sisters , Hurricane Linda, 85 degree water in Abreojos, and a sweltering summer in SoCal. It may be on the way but it isn't here yet.

Taco de Baja - 9-19-2006 at 11:20 AM

Care to join us at "Pisces Point" for 78* water next Summer???? :lol:

FARASHA - 9-20-2006 at 03:01 AM

THANKS so far for the info's Nomads.
Taco I like your STONE Theory!!!

NOW- Is there a change in the marine life to be expected soon, or already to be noticed ?
I try to figure out by watching and matching up weather and changes in marine life ( not only in BAJA) in advance, as early signs that would point out on what's coming up.
I noticed Summer 97 an rise in the watertemps to the extend, that on some places, masses of smaller fish were dying from lack of oxygen in the shallows. BIG fish (ie.sharks, groupers, rays) changing territories, behaviour and feeding patterns etc....
Anyone with previous/recent observations (is most welcome) who want to share it with me??

[Edited on 20-9-2006 by FARASHA]

Taco de Baja - 9-20-2006 at 07:38 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by FARASHA
THANKS so far for the info's Nomads.

NOW- Is there a change in the marine life to be expected soon, or already to be noticed ?


How about me catching Bonito and Yellowtail from the beach, last month??

A friend told me that there were several Yellows caught in San Diego, from the besch, the same week I caught mine in Baja

How about other Nomads reporting Yellowtail on the beach in Baja?? http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=19417ow

Those are not typical places to find these fish. I have not looked at any fish reports lately, but it would not suprise me if day boats and overnight charters are catching more fish in the tuna family than in past years.

Tha warmer water will also kill off the kelp. But it will grow back as the water cools.

FARASHA - 9-20-2006 at 07:47 AM

YES, I was sifting through numerous threads to get some informations, but hard for me to tell what is the USUAL seasonal change and what is connected to el nino, and/ or are regular weather related changes, or occurances.
I'm not (yet) a BAJA expert. I do read the related TOPIC, still doesn't always tell me what's (un)usual.
But thanks for updating me. And would like to get further infos.

Experts ?

MrBillM - 9-20-2006 at 11:40 AM

Back in the late 70s (78 ?) in Indio, according to NOAA, Southern California was in the third year of a 10 year drought cycle when we were hit with a series of torrential downpours that forced me to replace my roof.

They don't know [scheisse] !

Mexitron - 9-20-2006 at 12:09 PM

Well, they knew less in the 70's, yah...

Steve in Oro Valley - 9-20-2006 at 12:14 PM

Mmmm ...

Yellowtail in February...

During the El Niņo of1997-1998, the late WON columnist Fred Hoctor reported yellowtail pileup on the beach at 3 sisters on Punta Banda...

I went down and caught a years worth of yellowtail and barracuda filets....

I love yellowtail (jurel de aleta amarilla)...

Steve in Oro Valley

and this one...

Sharksbaja - 9-20-2006 at 01:03 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Taco de Baja
Quote:
Originally posted by Cypress
El Nino? The experts predicted a higher than average hurricane season over in the Atlantic. With about 3 weeks left in the season, they said it was gonna be less than normal.


Recent talk is that there were less hurricanes this year because of El Nino......Boy, this kid sure gets around and messes with things.
I wonder how many climate change models incorporate this little guy, and If they do, how often do they shove him in the mix? every 5, 7, 10, years? and how strong is he when they input him? How about his 'evil twin' La Nina? Both can radically effect weather all across the globe for a year, all naturally, with no input from man-made chemicals, and then things can go back to 'normal' the next year.

Strange world we live in :yes:

I like my rock hanging on a string weather predictor:
if it is moving, it is windy
if you can't see it, it is foggy
if it is wet, it's raining
if it is covered in white fluffy stuff, it's snowing
if it is hot, it is sunny and hot
if there are ice-sickles on it, it is cold


-----------------

if the rock is gone, you're having a flood:wow:

Progress ?

MrBillM - 9-20-2006 at 02:02 PM

Well, yes, 1978 is awhile back. I suppose I mentioned that because it was the most memorable (costly) incident, but I could cite a multitude of later events, including the time I was sitting in my sailboat on San Diego bay in a drenching downpour listening to NOAA radio telling me there might be a 70 % chance of rain that day.

Granting that NOAA has spent a lot of money in successive years and installed a lot of equipment, I would be happy to see any statistical evidence that their accuracy of forecasts have improved.

Feel free to print that.

FARASHA - 9-21-2006 at 12:26 AM

So far I gather from the infos that fish is seen on places they are usually not to be found - AFTER an Storm, happens anything alike also BEFORE??
And yes I don't think that forecasts are as accurate as my granny bones have been. As I stated before.
Only thing that is good now - the satellite images showing a global view of events.

Tomas Tierra - 9-21-2006 at 08:38 AM

El Nino, La Nina......blah blah blah....El Papa is causing more problems at the moment......and oh yeah, look out for La Madre, when she decides to get involved, we are all doomed.......DOOMED!!




:spingrin:

Mexitron - 9-21-2006 at 09:43 PM

MrBillM--do you have statistical evidence that the forecasts have not improved since the 70's? Beyond your own reckoning that is. The last month in Bend, Oregon, which isn't the easiest place to forecast, they've been pretty much right on the 5 day outlooks. I think the progress is incremental every year so we don't notice it as much...

FARASHA - 9-22-2006 at 12:52 AM

BEST FORECAST I rely on is LOCALS.They know their area, and read the signs. That's WHY I started this thread.
Satellite based forecasts is good for a good perspective on the overall information.
Nature is giving us lots of infos too - if we pay attention.
And I do my plannings (vacations, dives, trips) by taking ALL into account.
That worked very fine till now.:yes:

Skeet/Loreto - 9-22-2006 at 02:39 AM

All of the Information given from Experience should be Collected and used in your Travels and Studies in the Future.

I would think that El Nino is once again on us. During the Last El Nino, Marlin we seen and Caught off of Seattle.
While building and Living at Rancho Sonrisa, my Wife and I keep a Daily Record of the Tempeture, The Low was 48 Degrees- The High 96 Degrees, this did not take in to Account "Wind Chill" as we lived on the Beach and somtimes the North Wind Blows would feel a Mite Cooler.

My Wife and I were "Skinny Dipping" on the Pacific one Nite when the South Swell overcame the Beach, we Woke with our Truck in 2 Feet of Water{That was the same year that Manhatten Beach had large Southern Swells

The Fish are a Key Factor;
The Birds and Animals{Watch a Change in Their Normal Habits} such as Squirels who will start hording early.

The year of 1998, I caught 2 Sea Catfish in Loreto Bay{ How many on this Board have caught Sea Catfish and when ??}..

Remember that NOAA is operated by People who make mistakes in Judgement.

Skeet/Loreto

FARASHA - 9-22-2006 at 03:08 AM

Thank you Skeet for sharing your observations.

Did you record Airtemps only Skeet? Or also Watertemps?
Significant changes must be there too.
Have this seen in the Atlantic happen 97/98 also.
Also changes in major currents happened.
Thats why fish turns up on different (unusual) places, or seem to disappear from the usual hunting grounds.
Interesting that you noticed squirrels hoarding earlier.

Is Birds migration also affected?
Reptiles and Amphibeans maybe? - do they start hibernating earlier/later ??
It is for me fascinating how nature tells us. We just need to learn to SEE and UNDERSTAND.
Could help us adjust our own Life. And prepare for it, not to be taken by surprise, by an upcoming desaster.
Its wise to look beyond our Horizont.

Previous to Earthquakes MANY animals act different and make a run, or hide on a safe place.
And that applies for sure also to such a phenomenon as El Nino/ el Nina.

Don Alley - 9-22-2006 at 08:17 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Skeet/Loreto
The year of 1998, I caught 2 Sea Catfish in Loreto Bay{ How many on this Board have caught Sea Catfish and when ??}..
Skeet/Loreto


I caught a couple, two years ago, I think, from my kayak at Juncalito. Chili Sea Catfish, aka Chihuil Sea Catfish. Caught them in the bay, over the sand bottom.

From Gene Kira's site:
http://www.mexfish.com/fish/cscat/cscat.htm

FARASHA - 9-23-2006 at 01:57 AM

Skeet and Don: how far off, have those sea catfish been, from their usual places?
Or do I understand that they are NEVER ANYWHERE around SOC ??
ANY IDEAS ??

Don Alley - 9-23-2006 at 08:13 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by FARASHA
Skeet and Don: how far off, have those sea catfish been, from their usual places?
Or do I understand that they are NEVER ANYWHERE around SOC ??
ANY IDEAS ??


This is what Gene Kira's site says:

"In Mexican waters, the Chili Sea Catfish is found along the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, throughout the Sea of Cortez, and along the coast of the mainland to Guatemala, and it also appears to be found around the oceanic islands."

So I don't see this fish as an indicator of warm water; actually catching one is an indicator that you are fishing in poor habitat for game fish. I caught them trolling in my kayak on my way to better spots.

As far as warm water/El Nino years go, this summer has been a classic. Albacore have avoided northern Baja and southern California, and are caught off Washington state. The San Diego boats are having a banner year catching Dorado on overnight boats. If the El Nino continues, other fish will move their range northward. Triggerfish off southern cal, maybe more exotic such as bluefin trevally or even rainbow runners may show up in the Sea of Cortez. On the other hand, California may see poor years for recruitment of cold water species like rockfish, which will add to the pressures to permanently close many of California's best fishing areas.

FARASHA - 9-23-2006 at 10:06 AM

Thanks Don - that gave me a good overview and did go as far as Washington. It's really fascinating, and I'll appeciate to hear about any other unusual phenomenon over the next couple month.:D:yes:

Skeet/Loreto - 9-23-2006 at 01:15 PM

There are many things that we can observe around us that can indicate the Future:
Such as the actions of all Birds and fFsh at the time of an up coming Pressure change.
My Mother was able to feel the change of Pressure before a Storm was anywhere near, guess she passed it to me in the Genes.
Horses are Animals that Display a change in Pressure many hours before as is felt by Humans.
Squirlls can be noticed "Hording Earlier when a Long Winter is expected.

The movement of certain Types of Fish can also be observed, just from the surface to 35 Feet by Snorkling.

Don, if you get a chance next Spring, go up to Del Efonso Island and observed the Bird Life.
It is amazing where the small birds are kept on the Lower slopes, while the Larger Birds get the Higher Vantage Points, eggs are even larger.
There is an Abundance of Eggs,which I would collect an take to my Mexicano Friends who did not have boats.They are much to "Fishee" for my Taste.
Farasha; There was at one time a Student from New Mexico University, that did a 3 Year Study of the Pelicans on Coronado Island for his Doctorate.
I forget his name but you may be able to find it through the University. It was done in the late 70', early 80's.

Skeet

Santa Cruz Sentinel Story

jettygirl - 9-26-2006 at 08:26 AM

Take a look at www.santacruzsentinel.com
They have an interesting story in todays paper ( 9-26-2006) titled Mystery in Monterey Bay.
It talks about "upwellings" and the effect it has on marine life as well as the birds.
For the moment they are calling it an El Coyote, the trickster, but are also leaning towards the lack of "upwelling" being a part of El Nino as well as climate change.

Interesting topic.
Enjoy

(the online story title is Rare Ocean Pattern Leaves Fish and Birds Hungry)

[Edited on 9-26-2006 by jettygirl]

FARASHA - 9-26-2006 at 09:29 AM

THANK YOU jettygirl, found it an interesting article, it supports many peoples thoughts that El Nino is up front.
El Coyote - the trickster - reminds me of Navajo or Hopi stories.
Have heard about this El Coyote phenomenon - but have not found any in-depht readings on it. If someone does - drop a line please!!
Nice that others are interested in this topic too.

FARASHA - 9-27-2006 at 09:26 AM

After reading about the RED TIDE on the red tide thread, I wonder if this has been in the past ALWAYS been associated with EL NINO.
Has someone information where to find some readings on the red tide??

Skeet/Loreto - 9-27-2006 at 11:34 AM

Farasha;
During my years on the Sea, i observed the Red Tide several different years. I cannot tell you the exact years, However if you go on to the Sea Of Cortez Sailing Website you might get some first Hand
stories and Dates.
There is one who keeps his Vessel in San Carlos, lives in Leadville, Colo. Spends his Winters Sailing The Sea. Vessel name"Blue Chablias". Real nice People.
Skeet

El Nino

Halboo - 9-30-2006 at 09:03 AM

When there are dorado caught off So Cal in July and WAHOO caught off Colonet in September you can bet your last peso there's an El Nino event in progress.
My 2 cents.

HF

FARASHA - 9-30-2006 at 02:31 PM

Thanks for your 2cents HF; yeah we all think that El NINO is due.
And did you yourself catch those fish in unusual places??Any other observations??
BTW welcome to the BOARD!!
Farasha

Thanks SKEEt - will try to remember this guy with the Sailing Boat you mentioned, I wonder if he takes people on board??

Halboo - 9-30-2006 at 04:50 PM

Thanks for the welcome, I've been lurking here off and on for ages; just never got around to posting .....
Yeah, I got into a few dodos and smallish yft up here this year.
I lived my whole life in So Cal, west o' the 5 :cool: and if you fish / surf etc. an area for 40+ years you'll hopefully get a handle on weather patterns.

Halboo

FARASHA - 10-1-2006 at 12:46 PM

HALBOO-Jeeze 40+ years in BAJA??whow, sounds you're a Methusalem!!:biggrin:
Welcome to the CLUB, the Club of the UHU's -Under Hundred year of age.
I have never been to the 5:dudette:, Is there also a nice diving?? I'm a DIVE ADDICT!! I mean nice Drop offs,Deep Walls, etc.with Big Game?
Farasha

spike - 10-5-2006 at 03:03 PM

When I travel to Baja it is mostly to windsurf, and when there is a El Nino, I end up doing a lot mountain biking. In "La Nina" it is much windier...... Now where did I put that bike box?
Spike

shari - 10-5-2006 at 07:46 PM

Well, the water was 77 degrees a couple days ago which is super warm for here...so the yellow tail have retreated to deeper cooler water now. We're kinda worried about an El Niņo here as it trashes the abalone and the lobster don't do so well either although this first week has been excellent. I sure like snorkeling without a wetsuit though!!! We sure could use some rain this winter as well...we put a new roof on 2 years ago after all that rain for several winters and it hasn't rained since!!!

chino - 10-6-2006 at 08:01 AM

Good one TT, weather is one of only things things tha we havent screwed up yet, Mark Twain said" everybody complains about the weather but no one ever does anything about it"
I say bring on the whole family!

FARASHA - 10-6-2006 at 12:14 PM

SHARI - THANKS for INFO,what are the usual temp's you have over there??In this time of the year.
As Yellowtail has dissappeared - any other fish instead turned up wo isn't around usually??
Never been on that side of the BAJA. Except for a short trip to Magdalena B.
Should really do that next time around. Sounds and Looks great from what I gather.

chino - 10-6-2006 at 05:46 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by spike
When I travel to Baja it is mostly to windsurf, and when there is a El Nino, I end up doing a lot mountain biking. In "La Nina" it is much windier...... Now where did I put that bike box?
Spike

Good on ya! Spike thats the key to a succesfull trip!

FARASHA - 10-7-2006 at 03:09 PM

SHARI -read on another thread that you got loads of Lobster now, beside making my mouth wartering, makes me think also - are there MORE then usual now??

shari - 10-7-2006 at 03:38 PM

Well the lobster report for this week is...San Roque is producing a bumper crop, more than usual, but down the coast a little bit in San Hippolito there are very few....less than usual...the nature of the beast changes...sometimes they are here and then they aren't....there are more when the seas are rough supposedly but it's been flat calm all week and san roque langosteros are just hauling them in like crazy...over a thousand one day this week!! they move around alot and so ya have to move ;your traps around accordingly...the trick is to find them....the good fishermen know where to set their traps. water temps are usually more than 5 degrees cooler this time of year.

FARASHA - 10-7-2006 at 03:50 PM

Gosh I wish I could have a Lobsterfeast, they are soooo expensive back home. Although I guess that if they are overfished that they will disappear soon too. As lots of other species seem to. Found once a MEGA HUGE Lobster during a dive in southern Red Sea, that was about the size of an arms length (from shoulder to fingertip).
Left that old guy where it was, it's said that the big ones aren't tasty anymore. That right??