BajaNomad

My perspective on the current crime wave

JESSE - 11-14-2006 at 07:26 PM

Its been a difficult couple of months lately for some folks on this board. I wanted to writte this not deny whats happening, but to maybe give us a different perspective on the situation. Its not a secret here that one of the reason why i decided to leave TJ is that i was getting tired of reading newspapers everyday, detailing who got murdered and guessing why. Since i am from TJ and i have lived in that city for many many years, i think maybe you will find my perspective on this matter interesting.

Crime in Baja is growing, but this is not just a Baja problem, for years now, Mexico's security problem has steadily gone from bad to worse. The reason? its a combination of problems and situations. Lets remember that Vicente Fox came into power and the relationship betwen the PRI (ruling party) and organized crime got severed. 6 years ago organized crime had deals worked out with the goverment, and when someone got out of hand, the goverment simply stepped in and took care of the problem. This relationship has been working for decades, so thats why there really was no need for cops to actually have police skills to deal with crime. Cops back then knew who, when, and why, and if they got a call from the mayor or the governor saying "john doe is making too much trouble, get rid of him", they simply went to his home, arrested him, and in many cases, the destination of that criminal would be the middle of the desert.

Lets forward in time to when Vicente Fox took over, and all of those relationships got cut. Since the PRI wasnt in power any more, organized crime didnt need to keep bribing those that didnt have the strings in their hands any more. They tried to cut deals with the new administration, but Fox actually tried to do good and instructed his police agencies to go after the cartels. This worked very well at first, as you remember a few year ago many cartel leaders got arrested and things actually looked good. But this would only last for a short while. When the goverment arrested the cartels. They did not destroy the cartels, but separated them into smaller units, or cells, mostly made of hit men that did not have any connections to keep doing what they did.

After a while, these hitmen started kidnapping, stealing other drug dealers drugs, killing for hire, and whatever made money for them in the absence of drugs to trafick. Off course the goverment noticed but something new started to happen. 1st, there wasnt any real cops to deal with these criminals, what we had was just a bunch of badly trained cops who never really did need to risk their neck or do actual police work. and 2nd, since the all mighty centralized power of the PRI was dead, local and state authorities started to work out their own deals with these criminal gangs.

The result of a rising wave of crime all over the nation, bad cops all over, local authorities protecting local criminals, and a federal goverment with no real police muscle to clean the mess. In other words, we destroyed the old rules, but never made new ones.

Now, the bad thing is that we have all felt this crime wave hit us close, some directly. The good news is that its not as bad as we might think, since the increase in crime has made us pay a lot of attention to crimes that we never even bother with before. The reality is that we should be proud of our new goverment for ending that crime-goverment relationship that existed for decades at the highest levels. but we should also demand for our goverment to find new ways to deal with the new problems created from this shift.

I honestly believe Felipe Calderon has the balls to deal with this mess, and i belive the federal goverment has the muscle in the form of our military and our intelligence agencies to find a way to stop and revert this tendency. We in Baja are experiencing a rise in crime, but lets be thankful we live in Baja. Things are great compared to the rest of Mexico and or cities like Tijuana.

I wouldnt trade the safety of Mulege for L.A. or Chicago any day. Baja has changed, but we should all be alert, take your security precautions, and stay safe.

Skeet/Loreto - 11-14-2006 at 07:31 PM

Jesse: Well written and very Wise and correct Knowledge.!

Skeet/Loreto

vgabndo - 11-14-2006 at 07:34 PM

Great post Jesse.

Your assessment make perfect sense. It may be necessary for the military to get into law enforcement before the problem is remedied. As a tourist, it wouldn't bother me. I'd rather be seeing lots of troops around than a few policemen that I don't know if I can trust.

I'm looking forward to meeting you on the 23rd. Perry

Bob and Susan - 11-14-2006 at 07:38 PM

excellent jesse

oladulce - 11-14-2006 at 07:40 PM

Thank you Jesse. I would not have seen the connection to the bigger picture and it's very interesting.

Hook - 11-14-2006 at 07:46 PM

Post of the Year.............here, here!!!!!

The military is the only entitiy in Mexico that has the firepower to confront these cells.

longlegsinlapaz - 11-14-2006 at 07:47 PM

Excellent, logical & very informative post! Thank you for taking the time to create this thread!!

Very interesting

Sharksbaja - 11-14-2006 at 07:54 PM

You speak with solid and clear information Jesse. I find the relationship between cartels and govt very scary. You say they coexisted and obviously if true than the pre-Fox administration was responsible for advancing drugs and their cartel leaders. So correct me if Iam wrong. You are saying that the govt was loosely married to the cartels thru their tolerance of their activities. Then are they not one and the same?
Now you suggest that although Fox attempted to reign in the bad guys he actually made it worse in terms of violent crimes commited by fractioned gangs. You also state that you consider the police inept at solving and enforcing the thugs on the street. Can this situation be solved at the ground level? I mean with all the loose cannons all over place minus a solidarity within the cartels and govt, does this not overwelm the local cop? Do they even know who to (potentially) shoot at?

This all sounds complex and complicated in terms of control of these thugs and their ability to escape the law easily.
I wonder how fast things can reverse or how the govt can get a hammer on it without declaring martial law or similar. Perhaps as mentioned, the Army could intervene and create a "real" police state.
Either way you look at this huge problem a major shift in Mexican tactic and attitude is in order.

Hook - 11-14-2006 at 08:02 PM

Naturally, this leaves me wonder who and why Colosio was killed.. Was he talking like a reformer too much?

[Edited on 11-15-2006 by Hook]

JESSE - 11-14-2006 at 08:02 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Sharksbaja
You speak with solid and clear information Jesse. I find the relationship between cartels and govt very scary. You say they coexisted and obviously if true than the pre-Fox administration was responsible for advancing drugs and their cartel leaders. So correct me if Iam wrong. You are saying that the govt was loosely married to the cartels thru their tolerance of their activities. Then are they not one and the same?
Now you suggest that although Fox attempted to reign in the bad guys he actually made it worse in terms of violent crimes commited by fractioned gangs. You also state that you consider the police inept at solving and enforcing the thugs on the street. Can this situation be solved at the ground level? I mean with all the loose cannons all over place minus a solidarity within the cartels and govt, does this not overwelm the local cop? Do they even know who to (potentially) shoot at?

This all sounds complex and complicated in terms of control of these thugs and their ability to escape the law easily.
I wonder how fast things can reverse or how the govt can get a hammer on it without declaring martial law or similar. Perhaps as mentioned, the Army could intervene and create a "real" police state.
Either way you look at this huge problem a major shift in Mexican tactic and attitude is in order.


The goverment used the cartels for money, and they are not one and the same. They never where.

I believe local cops are overwhelmed, but the military is still strong and loyal. If they decide to come down hard on the cartels, its going to be ugly, but the cartels have no chance.

DianaT - 11-14-2006 at 08:13 PM

Jesse,
Your post was really great. Your insight is appreciated. Thank you.

For the sake of Mexico, I sure hope the military does come down on the cartels----they are ruthless. There will be only one government that rules Mexico and let's hope it will be the one run by Calderon.

Diane

[Edited on 11-15-2006 by jdtrotter]

Sharksbaja - 11-14-2006 at 08:15 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JESSE
Quote:
Originally posted by Sharksbaja
You speak with solid and clear information Jesse. I find the relationship between cartels and govt very scary. You say they coexisted and obviously if true than the pre-Fox administration was responsible for advancing drugs and their cartel leaders. So correct me if Iam wrong. You are saying that the govt was loosely married to the cartels thru their tolerance of their activities. Then are they not one and the same?
Now you suggest that although Fox attempted to reign in the bad guys he actually made it worse in terms of violent crimes commited by fractioned gangs. You also state that you consider the police inept at solving and enforcing the thugs on the street. Can this situation be solved at the ground level? I mean with all the loose cannons all over place minus a solidarity within the cartels and govt, does this not overwelm the local cop? Do they even know who to (potentially) shoot at?

This all sounds complex and complicated in terms of control of these thugs and their ability to escape the law easily.
I wonder how fast things can reverse or how the govt can get a hammer on it without declaring martial law or similar. Perhaps as mentioned, the Army could intervene and create a "real" police state.
Either way you look at this huge problem a major shift in Mexican tactic and attitude is in order.


The goverment used the cartels for money, and they are not one and the same. They never where.

I believe local cops are overwhelmed, but the military is still strong and loyal. If they decide to come down hard on the cartels, its going to be ugly, but the cartels have no chance.


Ok Jesse, but bedfellows nonetheless. In my eye that makes it hard to delineate one entity from another aside from the uniforms and job title.

A very keen post, thanks.

Santiago - 11-14-2006 at 08:20 PM

Outstanding post, Jesse.

Jesse

Baja Bernie - 11-14-2006 at 08:20 PM

I salute you! First of all for making what I have been saying about you come true. You have the brains and the knowledge to help Mexico become a better place for Mexicans. The gringos will continue to come and help with the economy if only because of what the country has to offer.

Please keep on keepin on for 'your' country.

Friends, Jesse has just nailed it with his honest post!

Lee - 11-14-2006 at 08:23 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JESSE
Now, the bad thing is that we have all felt this crime wave hit us close, some directly. The good news is that its not as bad as we might think, since the increase in crime has made us pay a lot of attention to crimes that we never even bother with before. The reality is that we should be proud of our new goverment for ending that crime-goverment relationship that existed for decades at the highest levels. but we should also demand for our goverment to find new ways to deal with the new problems created from this shift.

I wouldnt trade the safety of Mulege for L.A. or Chicago any day. Baja has changed, but we should all be alert, take your security precautions, and stay safe.


Bravo. Excellente.

:cool:

comitan - 11-14-2006 at 08:51 PM

The goverment used the cartels for money, and they are not one and the same. They never where.

When you make this statement do you mean using the money for Government or for their own gain?

Comitan

Baja Bernie - 11-14-2006 at 08:56 PM

Imagine the answer to your question

BajaBruno - 11-14-2006 at 09:30 PM

Excellent post, Jesse. What you say makes a lot of sense. I do, however, have less faith in the military than you do. I’ll give you some examples.

Several years ago I spent the evening talking to a PGR (the former federal drug enforcement police) helicopter pilot who was intercepting high-speed drug smuggling boats off of Quintana Roo (the Caribbean). At that time, the military had taken over most of the drug interdiction efforts, after some high profile disputes with the PGR. This pilot told me that the tension between the military and PGR stemmed from an incident where two PGR officers following leads came across some army officers helping smugglers transport drugs. The PGR tried to make an arrest and were killed by the military officers.

After that, the PGR refused to allow the military to pass their checkpoints without searching them, and the Army, who were suspected of moving lots of drugs, got into some very tense armed encounters with the PGR at those checkpoints. As I saw myself, this resulted in the PGR and the army having roadblocks just out of shooting range of each other, and neither letting the other pass. Those were ugly times in south Mexico.

During the same time I was in Xcalak (near Chetumal, in south Quintana Roo) when the PGR tracked and brought in a drug smuggling boat. I talked to the local fishermen who were recruited to unload the boatful of drugs into awaiting army trucks. They said that they unloaded two tons of drugs. The newspaper a couple days later touted the success of the army in booking one ton of drugs into evidence at the secure facility near Cancun. About a month later, even that remaining ton was mysteriously lost from the rock-hard army facility.

Is the army less corrupt now, seven or so years later? Well, they couldn’t be much more corrupt, certainly, so anything must be an improvement. Considering that the incidence of US border guards succumbing to the temptation of drug and people smuggling money is rising at an uncontrollable rate, I have a hard time believing that conscripted army men operating on poverty wages will be the answer to the crime problems of Baja and the border.

The bigger problem that no one seems to recognize is a Napoleonic legal system that invites corruption at a much higher level that the local cops. I have a wealthy friend who has bribed judges several times to dismiss charges on criminals in custody. With no juries, no public testimony, no effective oversight, and prosecutors embittered by the corruption around them, it is no wonder that poorly paid and untrained cops are sorely tempted to take the money or just ignore the troubles. I doubt much real progress can be made until the judicial system is significantly revamped.

OK, that’s my turn on the soapbox! Thanks again Jesse for giving me the opportunity to vent! Now then, where was that tequila?

Always the optimist . ..

jerry - 11-14-2006 at 10:25 PM

wow Two very well thought throu views thank you both for bring forword both
add in the meth on the street problems petty thefts and desprate crimes its not looking too shinny but understanding is the first step in solving

Very precise

capn.sharky - 11-15-2006 at 09:46 AM

JESSE - 11-15-2006 at 10:03 AM

Bruno,

The PGR is considered to be the most corrupt police agency in Mexico for more than two decades, and in my opinion, sigle handedly responsible for the mess we are in. Its no wonder many top cartel leaders where at one time PGR agents. I am not going to say there isnt any corruption in the military, since there is. But i can guarantee you that if there is, its mainly regional and not institutional in the way the PGR and the local police agencies are, where everybody from street cop to boss is dirty. Theres good people in the military, tough people, smart people, who really love this nation and are angry at the failure of the civilian goverment to deal with this problem.

The Napoleonic legal system is not in my opinion the big problem, technically speaking our legal system has been recognized by international experts as very good. But ANY legal system needs to be enforced, in order to work, and here is where ours fails miserably. What good is it to have laws that give kidnappers 60 years in jail with no posibility of parole if the laws are not enforced? Having said that, there IS a need to reform the legal system, making trials faster so things can get resolved in months not years, trials are judged by juries not judges, giving local cops authority to deal with narcotics, and giving investigative powers to all cops, not just a few privileged ones. Finally, we need to separate the prosecuting office from the police office to avoid partnerships in crime and corruption.

To finish i would like to say that i frequent some message boards of the Mexican military, and i have to say the attitude on those boards is of anger and contained rage against the cartels and corrupt cops. Soldiers, specially special forces soldiers are angry at whats going on, an they cant wait to clean house and die if its necessary for their country.

Bob H - 11-15-2006 at 10:24 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JESSE
.... i would like to say that i frequent some message boards of the Mexican military, and i have to say the attitude on those boards is of anger and contained rage against the cartels and corrupt cops. Soldiers, specially special forces soldiers are angry at whats going on, an they cant wait to clean house and die if its necessary for their country.


Jesse, outstanding thread. I really like what you have to say and it makes so much sense. I especially like what you wrote above. Bravo!
Bob H

bajalera - 11-15-2006 at 10:33 AM

Thanks, Jesse, for those insightful posts. I've been wondering what the hell was going on.

EngineerMike - 11-15-2006 at 12:54 PM

After the flood in Mulege, one very well liked and respected Senora spent the next several days crying in disbelief at the looting, that such a thing would be the first impulse in the face of such disaster, and these were her people.

In my opinion there are only two fundamental differences between Mexico and the U.S. First is the relatively ubiquitous, and relatively free education available in the States, and the fairly universal advantage we take of it. Knowledge is power.

Second is the relatively ingrained and unfortunately easily accepted presence of corruption at practically every level of Mexican governance. From local cops who are not paid enough and are "expected" to augment their salary via the nuisance of mordida, to the cartel influences whereby murders can be ordered and carried out, Mexicans have lived under 7 or 8 decades of institutionalized corruption.

Today, however, I have two reasons for great hope. 100% of all Mexicans I have talked to on this point say their most severe criticism of the Fox presidency is his failure to do more on the corruption front. Disastisfaction of the electorate can be a powerful thing. Obregon, e.g. was popular, but his stock sank like a rock when he started blathering about a parallel government. Whatever his complaints, he torpedoed his own boat w/talk of disrupting government. It won't happen overnight, but disrespect for corruption and elevation of the rule of law will overtop greed so long as the electorate continues to get honorable choices.

My second reason for great hope is the youth (and future voters) of Mexico. In large numbers they are (in my meager assessment) preoccupied with the stain of corruption. One woman I met is very concerned about her son's safety. He is a newly minted attorney, and he moved to TJ with the expressed desire to engage in the fight against corruption. It is a dangerous time and place for this courageous young man. But he has allies both ahead of him in age, and behind. Kids are staying is school longer now than when I first toured Baja in the late 70's. I am happy to help encourage that trend in Mulege and Loreto, and there are wonderful efforts in LaPaz, Cabo, San Felipe, and elsewhere to do likewise. Some days I lament that a disproportionate number of the Mulege Student Scholars opt for carreers in law, but then I think about that young man, and how his disgust over acceptance of corruption in his country lights a fire in him. Education is a great ally of justice and great enemy of corruption the world over. It both generates alternate choices, and case hardens our revulsion at unnecessary problems. Education, I believe, is what drove Fox's predecessors to eradicate corruption in elections, opening the door for reform. And there appears to be more reform on the way.

I have great hope, and I carry mace.

thebajarunner - 11-15-2006 at 02:33 PM

Great insight!
Yep, we are about to discover what Sr. Calderon is made of.
Only he can stop this, and he knows it,
let's hope he hits back, and hard!