BajaNomad - earthquake specialist arrive in asuncion

earthquake specialist arrive in asuncion

shari - 11-27-2006 at 05:45 PM

We just came from the town meeting where there were 3 specialists and the municiple president explained what the plan is. They brought instruments to find out just what it is but they believe it is the tosco-abreojos fault that is moving around. They assured the villagers that it is completely normal and there is nothing to worry about. Today has been pretty quiet, only 4 tremors so far but this time of the day is when it has been most active the past 5 days so we'll see. the scientists plan to be here for awhile and more will arrive tomorrow with more equipment. They plan to set it up at this old radar shack beside our house as there has been some mention of this area as the hot spot.( picture taken from our patio of the bluff)They are setting up a public demo of info at the school tomorrow (classes have been suspended as well as church services and many stores are closed as more than half the town fled last night.) So we're gonna try sleeping in our home tonight now that they told us it was totally safe...hmmmm

[Edited on 11-28-2006 by shari]

Iflyfish - 11-27-2006 at 05:54 PM

Thank you so much for posting and keeping us informed, been worried about you.

Hope they have more good info soon.

Thanks again,

Iflyfish

Iflyfish - 11-27-2006 at 05:55 PM

Is that a plume at the point?

Iflyfish when not worried about friends sitting on volcanoes

longlegsinlapaz - 11-27-2006 at 05:58 PM

Does anyone know if these guys have a better credibility rating that the NOAA hurricane path predictors?

Shari, if I were in your position, I'd still go with what my gut tells me, as opposed to someone on the government payroll! A government person told you it was safe & YOU BELIEVED THEM???

Take care & be safe....and protect all those little doggie bag hostess gifts! :spingrin:

elgatoloco - 11-27-2006 at 06:05 PM

Exciting stuff.

Maybe the answer to the unseasonably warm water temps are related?

Be safe.

If you need to get away for a bit, come on up, we have a room waiting for you!

M&B

shari - 11-27-2006 at 06:06 PM

Yeah well lets just say we still have the cars packed and pointing out ready to roll but alls quiet at the moment....too bad as I wanted those scientists to experience what we've been going through. ONny 4 teeny ones today. I thought it was so interesting how they could tell us there was absolutely no danger to human life and not to worry. Stay tuned.

Bajagypsy - 11-27-2006 at 06:13 PM

Shari, I hope everything is ok, can't believe we missed everything, it must have started after we left.

shari - 11-27-2006 at 06:16 PM

gracias el gato...I too was wondering about the water temps...the weather has totally changed since this thing started belching...it got real cold here the last few days. Interesting that the most activity starts around 4 or 5 in the afternoon although quakes have happened at other hours too but the most intense is always at that hour. Yeah, gypsy...you would have loved the excitement. San Roque got rocked good too!

Bajagypsy - 11-27-2006 at 06:27 PM

Shari, our thoughts are with you, Juan, and Juan's family. Tell them to take care and give a huge hug to everyone.

jerry - 11-27-2006 at 06:29 PM

i have never heard a public offical that ever said anything was for sure
and id be weiry of anyone who can say its safe they simply dont know
they cant know
i know id sleep a lot better in a different place
i dought if the volcano knows the difference what time of day it is
id be heading out and looking back to see if anything happenns good luck and be safe i sure hope you will be there when i come to visit

Iflyfish - 11-27-2006 at 06:30 PM

" I thought it was so interesting how they could tell us there was absolutely no danger to human life and not to worry."

Used to say that about DDT.

I am going to be REALLY peeed with you if you get toasted!

Iflyfish

Message from volcanologist

Stickers - 11-27-2006 at 06:32 PM

Hi Rick --

Thank you for your e-mail and map of the Baja situation. It was great to talk to you on the telephone as well and get a better handle on this phenomena.

There are a few possibilities for the "localised" disturbances that are going on. 1) It is a "venting" from the fault in the area including what appears to be smoke, loud noises, etc. (most likely), 2) A new volcano is in production.

As per our conversation, please feel free to advise your Phoenix based colleagues of my willingness to come down to investigate the situation if warranted. For the time being, keeping a careful eye on the situation is the most prudent avenue. I do not recommend a full scale evacuation of the small village you mentioned during our conversation.

Hope this helps and please do keep me posted of any further developments. I will be out of the office tomorrow morning only for some TV broadcasts that I need to do. But if anything comes up, call me on my cell phone at ..............

Many thanks again Rick !

Respectfully,

SOUTHWEST VOLCANO RESEARCH CENTRE

"R.B."

R. B. Trombley, Ph.D.
Director & Principal Research Volcanologist

[Edited on 11-28-2006 by Stickers]

[Edited on 11-28-2006 by Stickers]

Iflyfish - 11-27-2006 at 06:36 PM

I got to admit, this is very exciting! Fear and excitement are very close to eachother.

Iflyfish when not distracting myself with pyroclastic flows.

P.S. Those guys have nice trucks, they must know what they are saying, er, em, hmmm, they are there to study.... right, which means that they really don't know, but they do have damn nice trucks. People always listened better to me when I wore a suit. Now don't give a damn. Figure I'm just as dumb as the next guy. Which, by the way I have always believed about myself anyway.

Iflyfish when not Psychoanalysing myself.

shari - 11-27-2006 at 06:41 PM

If RB wants to come down, he can hang his hat here (over the vent!) Can you ask him if it is normal for this type of activity to continue for 6 days? Is this release of built up of energy just steam or gas and why just here? Most days there have been 2 or 3 but yesterday was nuts with 27 that I counted and recorded times and duration lengths. There are lots of cracked houses and at least one cement roof cracked in half. Today I heard reports of furniture dancing, moving etc. I'll be glad when they figure out what the heck is going on.

Iflyfish - 11-27-2006 at 06:42 PM

Good one Stickers, I like "Ph.D. Director & Principal Research Volcanologist" better than shiny pick up trucks.

I still wouldn't get close enough to that vent to roast marshmallows

Iflyfish

Bruce R Leech - 11-27-2006 at 06:48 PM

Mexicans will never admit that they don't know what you are asking. even if they don't have a clue they will give you a answer. :?:

jim janet - 11-27-2006 at 07:06 PM

Hi Sharie,
Janet and I will be there shortly hold the new volcano I would love to see it

Sharksbaja - 11-27-2006 at 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by jim janet
Hi Sharie,
Janet and I will be there shortly hold the new volcano I would love to see it

Are u serious? :lol:

If you can get close enough to see it and photograph it and live, please post a pic here.

Russ - 11-28-2006 at 06:01 AM

Shari, How big is the new hot tub in your back yard? Seriously, I hope this all goes away and that there is no more damage. But a hot tub would be a nice touch. Especially with that view of yours.

fdt - 11-28-2006 at 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
Mexicans will never admit that they don't know what you are asking. even if they don't have a clue they will give you a answer. :?:

Dear Bruce, I like you and respect your 5000 or more posts, so I would like to see if you could please re-write or explain what you mean, I know you would never ever just post a reply just for posting purposes without beeing knowledgeable about your response, ever.
respetuosamente,
a mexican

Quote:

Originally posted by lencho

[ Believe it or not, folks, just because someone is stationed in La Paz or has a Mexican name, does not necessarily mean he's incompetent. CICESE has a respectable seismology department, some smart folks working there, and may well be more acquainted with the local situation than some specialist from Phoenix

--Larry

[Edited on 11-28-2006 by lencho]

Bajagypsy - 11-28-2006 at 07:50 AM

Shari,

How was the evening???? Are you still doing well? We are very concerned.

Bruce R Leech - 11-28-2006 at 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by fdt

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
Mexicans will never admit that they don't know what you are asking. even if they don't have a clue they will give you a answer. :?:

Quote:

I thought it was pretty clear. have you ever asked a Mexican for directions on how to get to some where :lol:

Have you ever gotten the answer to a question that is..... well I don't know that but I will try to find out for you. :lol:

this syndrome is worse with professional people like Lawyers and engineers. many times if you ask the to do something that they have not done before they will tell you that you cant do that, or it cant be done. :light:

it is just like these guys drive in to the village and get out of there trucks and tell everyone that there is absolutely no danger, when their is no way that they can know that yet :lol:

this doesn't have anything to do with how many posts I or you have. it is just something that was taught to me by some of my good Mexican Friends.

[Edited on 11-28-2006 by Bruce R Leech]

fdt - 11-28-2006 at 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
[I thought it was pretty clear. have you ever asked a Mexican for directions on how to get to some where :lol:

Have you ever gotten the answer to a question that is..... well I don't know that but I will try to find out for you. :lol:

it is just like these guys drive in to the village and get out of there trucks and tell everyone that there is absolutely no danger, when their is no way that they can know that yet :lol:

this doesn't have anything to do with how many posts I or you have. it is just something that was taught to me by some of my good Mexican Friends.

[Edited on 11-28-2006 by Bruce R Leech]

Wow, I guess I was mistaken.

longlegsinlapaz - 11-28-2006 at 09:31 AM

FDT, As negative as it sounds, I've found what Bruce is saying to be true more often than not. I honestly don't feel it's done maliciously, but rather to avoid admitting not knowing, as well as not wanting to disappoint the asker. I think it's done to save their pride & that most of the time it's done with good intentions of wanting to be helpful, when it actually has the exact opposite effect! But they feel good for having "helped"! Rarely does a stranger utter the words "I don't know"....or "No say".

And as Bruce said, many who don't know how to do something will tell you it can't be done....I've experienced this several times with builders. I listen to their response, and then either tell or show them how it CAN be done. I've had two different builders begrudgingly admit that they learned something from me! :bounce:

Yesterday I asked a worker who I've known for 7 years to please act more respectfully & responsibly towards me & let me know if he wasn't going to show up as he'd committed to the day before, only to be informed that "your expectations are insignificant to me" (his exact words!) and that acting responsibly is a gringo expectation, not the Mexican way, that it's a cultural thing! :?:

And this came from someone I think is normally muy intelligente! :lol:

I realize that not all Mexicans respond this way, but in my experience, enough do that I could relate to Bruce's statements! I'm not trying to be disrespectful here, just factual.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled earthquake specialist in Asuncion program! :lol:

David K - 11-28-2006 at 10:17 AM

So true... a Mexican would rather give you wrong info. than NO info. because it is in their nature to give...

toneart - 11-28-2006 at 10:57 AM

This is a very uncomfortable thing to comment on. We are guests in another country. We are subject to cultural differences that are often frustrating, especially when the outcome of an answer is important. In the case of a scientific opinion regarding the source of earth tremors, lives are at stake. Also, we do need to be politically correct in how we respond to these differences.

I too have been subject to answers that turned out to be wrong; i.e. directions. At best, these false directions are an inconvenience. Then there are the promises that so often don't materialize. Is it any wonder that we don't trust? It happens all too often.

We can only speculate as to why we are so often misled. I have to agree with Bruce and Longlegsinlapaz as to their conclusions. Mexicans don't maliciously misguide. They want to please. They don't want to disappoint. They would rather see you happy so they will give any answer, even if they don't know or can't fulfill a promise.

These are generalizations, which are not always correct. Of course there are exceptions, but the opinions formed here are a result of our experiences. It is doubtful it will change. We can, at times, be successful in building trustful relationships but it takes patience. Among ourselves we say, "Oh well, that's Mexico". And that is the attitude we have to assume; that's the reality of life in Mexico. Expect it and adjust to it. The trade off for most of us is worth it....Kind, generous, loving people; beautiful terrain and great weather (with the exception of a couple of bad dudes named John or Marty, but hey, those aren't Mexican names).

When we are called Amigo, they mean it!...and so do I. :yes:

Shari

Stickers - 11-28-2006 at 11:03 AM

Shari, please check your U2U's for answers to your questions from the volcanologist.

[Edited on 11-28-2006 by Stickers]

shari - 11-28-2006 at 11:08 AM

Buenos dias todos....well last night we decided to sleep in our house as there were only 2 little quakes yesterday afternoon. Well, last night there was more activity than ever before at night...7 quakes that I woke up for! I must be getting used to them now as I just rolled over and went back to sleep. This morning has been quite active with 4 in the last hour, one a nice rocker of 4 seconds. I hope this gives those scientists something to read about on their intruments and another plane just arrived with more guys and equipment...I guess they didn't want to damage their nice trucks on our road! Many have returned to town after yesterdays talk. These scientists are from the University, can't remember their names but seem to know what they're talking about. Today when the demo is set up I'll report back. Juan who is working on our beach house said he was worried the rock would topple over as they haven't poured the concrete pillars yet but are certainly hurrying to do so today. I feel better knowing that all these small quakes should alleviate a big one and look forward to some input from those who know. I would love it if RB Tremblay would come and check it out. It's weird how it affects you though...kind of a stress, on edge, waiting for another one...can't be good with those with heart condition or high blood pressure. I'll keep you posted.

wornout - 11-28-2006 at 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by David K
So true... a Mexican would rather give you wrong info. than NO info. because it is in their nature to give...

So true David and once one realizes that, they can appreciate this country and culture so much more.

Iflyfish - 11-28-2006 at 11:20 AM

Thanks Shari, our thoughts continue to be with you.

Iflyfish

David K - 11-28-2006 at 05:51 PM

Hi Shari, my web host mentioned he was communicating with you about your web site when you said quake... and the keyboard went dead the remainder of the night. Did you lose the Internet or electricty?

I also think you need to consider these shakes as not relief of fault stress, but instead of magma movement... In other words, not a good thing.

As I said before, I am not a scientist, nor do I play one on TV... It's just common sense with what we know about new volcanoes being born or old ones coming to life.

Please take photos of these La Paz guys putting our or checking their instuments.

[Edited on 11-29-2006 by David K]

mtgoat666 - 11-28-2006 at 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by David K
So true... a Mexican would rather give you wrong info. than NO info. because it is in their nature to give...

I think the new Bush administration education guidelines mandate that kindergardeners must now be taught to utter stereotypes only in private conversation and never post stereotypes on public bulletin boards. Penalty is excommunication from the PC party.

bajabound2005 - 11-28-2006 at 06:17 PM

wow, and I thought this thread was about "earthquake specialist arrive in asuncion"!

Iflyfish - 11-28-2006 at 08:56 PM

Got a few rumbles going here.

One interesting thing about stereotypes is that there is some reason that they are there. How do we talk about these differances and still be ok with eachother? Maybe another link, cultural differances, ain't they fun!. I would imagine that Mexicans have stereotypes of Gringos, ooops, too. They call me Gordo and no one asked me. Interesting dialogue.

Iflyfish when not ******* people off

[Edited on 11-29-2006 by Hose A]

Bruce R Leech - 11-29-2006 at 05:36 PM

shari anything new today? are you still there?

bajabound2005 - 11-29-2006 at 06:09 PM

Should we be worried that Shari has posted nothing since yesterday AM?

Bruce R Leech - 11-29-2006 at 06:16 PM

we should be very worried. this is not a good sign at all she was doing a very good job of keeping us up to date and all of a sudden silence. there can be no good reason for that. I fear the worst has happened. :no:

comitan - 11-29-2006 at 06:24 PM

My bet is she just lost power, I hope. If it was anything major we would have heard.

Iflyfish - 11-29-2006 at 06:39 PM

I hope comitan, I hope.

Ilfyfish

SiReNiTa - 11-29-2006 at 06:40 PM

first of all thank´s for being worried about our town and my family, that is really important to us...my mom called my cel this morning and told me that military came tot own this morning and evacuated everyone...things are getting crazy...thankgod my mom and everyone is fine but our house and many others is cracked and yesterday there were 5 or 6 BIG ones...I know i should be calm and responsible about this but I can´t stand me being here safe at school and my mamma having to camp out in someones back yard just miles away from our home...she told me that the whole town has left and the road cracked in two...

she said they were going to san hipolito to wait out the storm and she couldn´t come here because of the animals...(kind of strange) so they went to juans sisters house and they are going to try to go back everyday to see and feed the animals...they can ride the horse there and take the dogs in the car but does she think??? noooooo God she´s so terca?? don´t know how to spell it in english...well i will keep you posted...so I guess I´m moms voice for now since there are no pc´s there...I´ll be on tomorrow afternoon hoping to have more info but who knows...one last thing everyone...please have mom and everybody else from asuncion in your prayers...

peace surf and....NO MORE EARTHQUAKES!!!!!!!
SiReNiTa

toneart - 11-29-2006 at 06:46 PM

At the risk of appearing unconcerned, which I am not, I would like to offer a calming post:

1. My intuition says she is OK.
2. There are many reasons that could cause a computer blackout;
Electrical power outage in general....happens all the time.
Electrical power outage due to shaking.
Computer glitch.

3. Since she was only staying for the arrival of the earthquake specialists, maybe now she has evacuated. I hope by now she has put her camera on a 50' tripod with an auto click, and boogied on outta there.

4. If there had been a devastating earthquake or volcanic blast it would be reported somewhere. Attention has already been drawn to Asuncion.

5. Shari knows we are all concerned so she will post here as soon as she can get to a live connection. She sounds like a capable woman. Her job is to take care of herself and be safe.
Our job is to worry. It's the not knowing that is so difficult. She knows she is OK but just can't communicate right now. Have faith!

6. If we don't hear from her soon you can add me to the panic list. (Did I say that?)

longlegsinlapaz - 11-29-2006 at 06:46 PM

Sure there can be a GOOD REASON....she & Juan might have decided to get the hell out of Dodge!!! Or she could have lost power! My vote would be for getting out of Dodge, since I didn't think they had electricity there...I thought they are on generator, but I could be wrong.

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
there can be no good reason for that. I fear the worst has happened. :no:

toneart - 11-29-2006 at 06:51 PM

See? Now I can be one of those people that causes you to cringe when I say,"I told you so." Thank you Sirenita! Your post came in as I was composing mine.
I am very happy your mom is OK, but I am very sorry there is damage to your house and all the others.

Now I can admit, I really was worried.

bajabound2005 - 11-29-2006 at 06:53 PM

From Sirenita's post it looks like they had to evacuate? Is Shari her mom?

bancoduo - 11-29-2006 at 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SiReNiTa
first of all thank´s for being worried about our town and my family, that is really important to us...my mom called my cel this morning and told me that military came tot own this morning and evacuated everyone...things are getting crazy...thankgod my mom and everyone is fine but our house and many others is cracked and yesterday there were 5 or 6 BIG ones...I know i should be calm and responsible about this but I can´t stand me being here safe at school and my mamma having to camp out in someones back yard just miles away from our home...she told me that the whole town has left and the road cracked in two...

terca=stubborn

David K - 11-29-2006 at 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajabound2005
From Sirenita's post it looks like they had to evacuate? Is Shari her mom?

YES! See the family picture at http://www.bajabnb.com (new url)

Juan, Shari, Sirenita

[Edited on 11-30-2006 by David K]

Shari family-r.JPG - 48kB

SiReNiTa - 11-29-2006 at 06:57 PM

thank´s

yes shari is my dear mother...and they did evacuate this morning...it looks like there was another quake...6.??? something...oh god i hope they´re ok...my heart is clenched since this morning when my mom called...I wanted her to come to guerrero to be safer and so I can keep an eye on her just inc ase the roads close or something...but she is stubborn!! lmao but anyway she is OK so...that´s good...

David K - 11-29-2006 at 07:03 PM

Sirenita, there are other Baja message boards and someone already started a thread on Fred's (Baja California Travelers Board) about the quakes... I will quote parts of your post about the evacuation over there...

Thread on Fred's board: http://math.ucr.edu/ftm/bajaPages/MsgBoard/messages/7048.htm...

[Edited on 11-30-2006 by David K]

DianaT - 11-29-2006 at 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SiReNiTa
thank´s

So good to hear your voice, well to read your post and know you are safe and sound. Your mother sounds like a real survivor, and I am sure she will remain so. I am happy, however, to hear that they evacuated to safer territory.

I know it is difficult for you to be separated at a time like this, but I think that strong mother of yours passed that on to you. Hang in there, young lady.

We look forward to hearing from you again, and from your mother----I am sure she will post just as soon as she can.

Stay safe,
Diane

bancoduo - 11-29-2006 at 07:08 PM

It seems to me that something is going on down there other than seismic activity. I don't understand why all the experts at Caltech are not tripping over each other to get down there. :?:

windgrrl - 11-29-2006 at 07:11 PM

Hoping for the best outcome and your news, Shari.

SiReNiTa - 11-29-2006 at 07:25 PM

yeah sure David no problem!! and yes my mom is a very strong gal...sometimes i think she is to strong...but anyway i´m sure she will be ok...the magnitud of the last quake was 6. something i´m not sure what...but i´m sure glad mom wasn´t there for that one...thankyou for all your posts...it´s good to know that you worry about us even though most of you havn´t met us in person...(then you´d worry even more

:yes

SIReNiTa

A magnitude of 6?

Sharksbaja - 11-29-2006 at 08:06 PM

That's very alarming! I would hightail it away from there. There could be potential for a tidal wave or tsumani.

Suerte.

Bruce R Leech - 11-29-2006 at 08:17 PM

I would have been gone days ago. I got my family out before the flood also. some go for safety and some like to taunt Mother nature.

in the flood three years ago there was a man that just struggled to get up the rode bank to escape the rising water with his Bird and remembered he had not brought the bird food. HE WENT BACK for it. :lol:

[Edited on 11-30-2006 by Bruce R Leech]

Stickers - 11-29-2006 at 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
I would have been gone days ago. I got my family out before the flood also. some go for safety and some like to taunt Mother nature.

Someone on this board tags their posts with...

"Nature bats last"

.

Bruce R Leech - 11-29-2006 at 09:02 PM

Quote:

SiReNiTa
I don't want to scare you or anything but I don't think your mother just moving a couple miles from ground zero is enough. if everything you and her have been reporting is correct things are steadily getting worse the ground is moving more and the earth quakes are getting stronger. that means you are not getting after shocks. your are getting for shocks of a larger event. a 6 something for shock is nothing to stick around for. when you talk to your mother on the phone tell her to forget the animals and come to you so you don't need to worry

Iflyfish - 11-29-2006 at 10:47 PM

Dear SiReNiTa,

Our thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. I am glad that they have chosen to leave. This is a very unstable area. You parents were wise to send you to safety. My hope is that they too will join you. Your parents of course know best because they are there and have reasons for doing what they are doing. My hope is that you and they will be soon reunited.

I too hope you will ask your parents to be with you. But I am a long way away. Be brave amiga. You are cared for and cared about.

Ilfyfish

Bajagypsy - 11-30-2006 at 09:13 AM

SiReNiTa, its Alicia and Todd, we spent a week at the beach house and your mom and Juan held a wonderful birthday party for our youngest son Simon. We are very worried about your family, and if there is anything we can do, please u2u me, and I will do anything in my power to help. My thoughts are with you 24 hours a day, and am wishing all the best to you and your family. Please keep us posted, as everyone on Bajanomad is very concerned.

Bajagypsy - 12-1-2006 at 11:26 AM

Anyone here anything from SiReNiTa or Shari today? :?:

FARASHA - 12-1-2006 at 11:34 AM

last post I recall was on the thread" Quake activity in Asuncion area " from yesterday.

[Edited on 1-12-2006 by FARASHA]

Cypress - 12-1-2006 at 11:41 AM

Sirenita, Expect you're probably reunited with your mom and dad at this time. If not they're on the way. Your family is in our prayers. One of these days, after this is all over, you'll be able to look back and have some great stories to tell. :yes:

Bajagypsy - 12-2-2006 at 08:50 AM

Anyone here from Shari or Sirenita? Worried about how everyone is doing.