BajaNomad - lots of electrical things will not be working in Baja for a few days

lots of electrical things will not be working in Baja for a few days

Bruce R Leech - 12-13-2006 at 12:28 PM

I just received this from Phil KO6BB and thought it might be of interest to the Nomads.

73
Bruce

THE BEACONEER'S LAIR: http://www.geocities.com/ko6bb/
MY RADIO-LOGS: http://www.geocities.com/ko6bb/Logs/
QSL GALLERY: http://photobucket.com/albums/f306/KO6BB/
Merced, Central California, 37.3N 120.48W CM97sh

> Gang,
> I was disappointed. As active region neared the center of the sun, it went
> very quiet past day or so. Then ... from a B1 background level, an X3.4
> solar flare occured a couple of hours ago as I write this ...
> 13DEC 0214UTC = 12DEC 2114EST/1914MST
> This looks as if it could be a biggie, and certainly plenty of
> entertainment over the next 2-3 days. Energetic protons >100MeV began
> arriving at Earth less than an hour later, traveling a good fraction of
> the speed of light.
>>30MeV is considered ionizing radiation. On the sunlit side of earth right
>>now, the D-layer is highly ionized, causing a total HF blackout to 20MHz,
>>though subsiding a bit in the past 30 minutes to around 15MHz. Even here
>>on the dark side of the planet, I hear very few signals between the AM
>>broadcast band (mostly groundwave stations right now) to about 5.5MHz.
>
> There is no evidence that this ionizing radiation has reached the earths
> surface, known as a ground-level event or GLE. On the otherhand, these
> protons are also hitting the earth on the sun facing side of the earth, so
> the detectors in the U.S. are kind of worthless right now. The resulting
> radiation is more of an uppper atmosphere effect which cause concern to
> the airlines for passenger radiation exposure and possible electronic
> failures.
> It also makes you wonder what concerns there might be inside of NASA
> regarding the Space Shuttle astronauts, not having much of the Earth's
> atmosphere to shield them. Energetic protons flying through integrated
> circuits can cause junction failures, an additional concern.
> These protons enter the atmosphere, producing secondary particle
> collisions that produces increased radiation levels in the upper
> atmosphere. When the immediate radiation storm subsides, the E/F layers
> on the sunlit side of the earth will be very reflective with an above
> normal MUF.
> These protons are also entering the polar regions which have to be
> generating some spectacular aurora right now up north. Not to mention a
> strong Polar Cap Absorption event, which has the same effect as a near HF
> blackout for those in the higher latitudes.
> When the sun rises tomorrow over the Americas, the energetic protons will
> ionize the atmosphere above our heads, making our E/F layers more
> reflective and a higher MUF, even though the solar flare is long over.
> However, it probably won't be enough to ionize the D-layer ... meaning
> tomorrow during the day (particular morning hours U.S.) is a good time to
> get on the air with a higher MUF and a quiet D-layer. Since the E/F
> layers EAST of us will still be active, it could be favorable for strong
> east-west paths into Europe QRP.
> GEOMAGNETIC STORM.
> This solar flare occured smack in the middle of the sun ... the absolute
> ideal position for a coronal mass ejection (CME) to deliver a full blow to
> the Earth. Region 0930 is centered both in longitude and latitude,
> meaning the CME will hit us almost directly, AND the full force of the CME
> will ride along the plane of the Interplantary Magnetic Field (IMF). In
> short, we'll get a fairly strong and direct hit in a day or two, which
> will no doubt trigger a MAJOR, if not a SEVERE geomagnetic storm. This is
> NOT a "glancing blow" event -hi.
> WHEN WILL IT HIT?
> NOAA doesn't give much of a prediction, other than to say "on 14-15 DEC."
> Of course, much of that is due to the SOHO satellite being partially
> inoperative right now, so images and trajectory of the CME can not be
> made.
> So, let's figure it out ourselves.
> The speed of the shockwave from the CME was measured at 0244UTC at
> 1532km/s, or a fairly strong shockwave (anything >1000km/s is considered a
> major shockwave).
> 1532km/s x 60 sec. x 60 min. = 5.5^6km/hr
> With the sun 150,000,000km away, divided by 5.5^6km/hr = 27hrs travel
> time.
> However, the shockwave slows down as it travels away from the sun, with an
> ESTIMATE of about 85% (this is the biggest uncertainty in calculating
> arrival time. However, since it is traveling along the IMF fairly
> directly, I'm going to stick to the fastest 85% estimate).
> Therefore, 85% slowing of 27hrs = 32hrs = 1d 8h travel time
> Flare 13DEC 02UTC + 1d 8h = 14DEC 1000UTC = 14DEC 0500EST/0300MST
> Thus, we can expect the shockwave to arrive, and the geomagnetic storm to
> begin about sunrise 14DEC on the eastcoast US, and mid-morning to noon
> 14DEC in the UK/western Europe. Arriving at 85% of its velocity, the
> shockwave should hit earth fairly directly at 1532 x 85% = 1300km/s, or a
> fairly strong hit that will no doubt trigger a SEVERE geomagnetic storm
> with K indices hitting 7, perhaps all the way to 9. Such a severe
> compression of our magnetosphere will cause a long duration geomagnetic
> storm, lasting 12-18 hours. There will be very high and bursty noise
> levels leaving the bands fairly useless most of 14DEC.
> Along with the shockwave will be a wall of solar particles, many of which
> will be funneled along the Earth's magnetic field into the polar regions,
> fueling a strong aurora. If the >10MeV proton event is still continuing
> when the shockwave hits, it will fuel the aurora further. In short, when
> the shockwave hits, there could be very good auroras blowing fairly
> southward wherever local midnight is when the shockwave occurs.
> *IF* the shockwave arrives early morning 14DEC as quasi-predicted above,
> it means those of us in western Europe through the Americas will likely
> miss the show. But ... we certainly won't miss the geomagnetic storm!
> It is always difficult to predict the nature and intensity of an arriving
> shockwave (there are numerous factors that could skew the above calculated
> arrival time by many hours). That's my guess and I'm sticking to it -hi.
> A shockwave of 1300km/s has the *potential* of causing more severe
> problems above lousy HF communications, such as problems with electrical
> systems. Again, the potential is there, but no way of predicting anything
> specific.
> If the electrical power goes out somewhere - GET ON THE AIR. I have 1st
> hand experience of being on the air when the westcoast US went dark about
> 10 years ago. 40M was so quiet, it sounded like 2M over the repeater!
> You'll just have to see what band has minimal noise for some unique
> ground/skip propagation. Of course, that failure was not due to a
> geomagnetic storm, so the noise from that was not present.
> I always enjoy sharing my knowledge on the solar phenomenon after a solar
> flare and geomagnetic storm, but this is a unique opportunity to observe
> the effects BEFORE it happens. By watching what happens over the next 2-3
> days, with the above information, it should strengthen your knowledge and
> confirm your understanding on solar/geomagnetic storms. I can tell you,
> for those QRPers who have followed these posts over the years, you have a
> far higher understanding than the vast majority of hams.
> If I learn anything new or interesting when I arrive at work tomorrow at
> the observatory, I'll pass it on.
> 72, Paul NA5N
> PS - Just in case, I'd have a flashlight and a couple of candles ready :-)
> PPS - Most electric grid failures occur with a shockwave >1600km/s
>

____73 de Phil, KO6BB
DX begins at the noise floor!______________________________________________________
> QRP-L mailing list

DanO - 12-13-2006 at 12:41 PM

Great. I've got my hands full worrying about highway bandits, corrupt cops, rampant overdevelopment, horrendous border traffic, crazy meth-addicted burglars, Christmas shopping, raw sewage in my surf break and whether I can squeeze another 5,000 miles out of my BFGs before I start getting flats. Now I have to worry about a geomagnetic storm? Can life suck any harder?

:no:

DanO------

Barry A. - 12-13-2006 at 12:50 PM

:lol:

You can camp in the Boulders outside of Guadelupe Canyon and not worry about ANY of those things!!! :yes:

Don Alley - 12-13-2006 at 12:54 PM

Don't worry.
Be happy.

Stickers - 12-13-2006 at 01:00 PM

Or you can slip off into the bliss of ignorance. "Hey there is static on my radio today"? Who cares.

Bruce R Leech - 12-13-2006 at 01:08 PM

Did anyone notice the am radio blackout last night? I could only get 1 BC band station and it wasn't listenable.

sorry DanO just get an umbrella and cover it with aluminum foil and use it when you are under the sun :lol:

Cypress - 12-13-2006 at 01:09 PM

Jeez! This is way too much information for me to comprehend.

Should I run or should I stay? :?:

If I decide to stay, what should I do? :?:

If I decide to run? Which way? :tumble:

DanO - 12-13-2006 at 01:17 PM

Good idea Bruce, but I like to keep both hands free. I'll get one of those umbrella hats instead, and cover it with heavy duty aluminum foil. Not only will it protect me from geomagnetic storms, it'll also keep those pesky aliens from beaming the radio signals into my head that make me do stupid things. Hey, and I'll save money on sunscreen too!

:rolleyes:

elgatoloco - 12-13-2006 at 01:20 PM

This type of solar activity frequently results in aurora sightings. Some interesting info on this webpage.

http://www.dennismammana.com/skyinfo/gazingtips/auroras.htm

Doubt you will see it in Mulege.

appeal of the day:lol:

Bruce R Leech - 12-13-2006 at 01:21 PM

:lol:

elgatoloco - 12-13-2006 at 01:22 PM

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Go here for photo of Bruce's flare. :biggrin:

longlegsinlapaz - 12-13-2006 at 01:24 PM

DanO.....you gotta learn to multi-task!!! :lol:

Cypress - 12-13-2006 at 01:29 PM

Bruce, That's one frosty looking image. :lol:

Can identify with the white stuff. :bounce:

Not braggen, not complaining, just commenting. :yes:

Bruce R Leech - 12-13-2006 at 01:33 PM

oh yes DanO we will also have 3 Earth-asteroid encounters in Dec 2006.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

capt. mike - 12-13-2006 at 01:59 PM

some one needs to call Art Bell on this one!

Cypress - 12-13-2006 at 02:11 PM

Somebody catch that dude before he makes it to the HWY. :yes:

jimgrms - 12-13-2006 at 02:12 PM

I really need to find out if what bruce is smoking is legal and where can i get some

DanO - 12-13-2006 at 03:41 PM

Grover, that guy's doing it all wrong. Putting your fingers in your ears won't block the alien radio signals (trust me on this), and the antennas just amplify them. I kinda like the foil balaclava though, especially during those cold winter months.

Neal Johns - 12-13-2006 at 04:13 PM

The radiation has not reached Lytle Creek yet. at least no effects on humans noted yet.

E-maiMl Neal4M.jpg - 32kB

Barry A. - 12-13-2006 at 04:20 PM

OH----MY------GAWD!!!!!!!

and to think I was going to visit Lytle Creek, and mix with the Natives----maybe even see Neal-----don't think so, now-------poor guy------he just doesn't KNOW---------years of exposure has taken it's toll--------the future is grim---------

Barry

DanO - 12-13-2006 at 04:24 PM

Nice safety goggles, Neal. I bet you could fit a pair of glasses under those with room to spare.

Neal Johns - 12-13-2006 at 04:28 PM

Shucks, DanO, the glasses are normal size, the radiation shrunk my head!

Bruce R Leech - 12-13-2006 at 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by jimgrms
I really need to find out if what bruce is smoking is legal and where can i get some

I tried that only once but I did not inhale :lol:

Dave - 12-13-2006 at 08:37 PM

I have chosen not to read about this so as not to be affected.

Whatever it is.

Hook - 12-13-2006 at 11:16 PM

How much longer before we can start to say

It's all Nancy Pelosi's fault.

Right now is appropriate---------

Barry A. - 12-13-2006 at 11:29 PM

----don't you think??? Isn't she responsible for El Bolero??

bajadave1 - 12-14-2006 at 02:52 AM

Bruce,

Going back to the subject of your original post about electrical things not working for a few days, how would we know that it isn't just CFE down again?

Dave

:lol:

FARASHA - 12-14-2006 at 03:03 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Neal Johns
The radiation has not reached Lytle Creek yet. at least no effects on humans noted yet.

Neal - make sure non of the WiW's are getting to see this Photo, they might bail out of THE LIST!!!! (#398) :lol:

Bruce R Leech - 12-14-2006 at 07:06 AM

up date for today

"We're looking for very strong, severe geomagnetic storming" to begin probably around mid-day Thursday, Joe Kunches, Lead Forecaster at the NOAA Space Environment Center, told SPACE.com this afternoon.
The storm is expected to generate aurora or Northern Lights, as far south as the northern United States Thursday night. Astronauts aboard the International Space Station are not expected to be put at additional risk, Kunches said.
Radio communications, satellites and power grids could face potential interruptions or damage, however.
Solar flares send radiation to Earth within minutes. Some are also accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CME), clouds of charged particles that arrive in a day or two. This flare unleashed a strong CME that's aimed squarely at Earth.
"It's got all the right stuff," Kunches said.
However, one crucial component to the storm is unknown: its magnetic orientation. If it lines up a certain way with Earth's magnetic field, then the storm essentially pours into our upper atmosphere. If the alignment is otherwise, the storm can pass by the planet with fewer consequences.
Kunches and his team are advising satellite operators and power grid managers to keep an eye on their systems. In the past, CMEs have knocked out satellites and tripped terrestrial power grids. Engineers have learned to limit switching at electricity transfer stations, and satellite operators sometimes reduce operations or make back-up plans in case a craft is damaged.
Another aspect of a CME involves protons that get pushed along by the shock wave. Sometimes these protons break through Earth's protective magnetic field and flood the outer reaches of the atmosphere—where the space station orbits—with radiation. The science of it all is a gray area, Kunches said. But the best guess now is that there will only be a slight increase in proton activity. That's good news for the astronauts.

bajalou - 12-14-2006 at 09:30 AM

And from the European Space Agency regarding their "real time" satellite images

"14/12/2006
Envisat Anomaly
An anomaly occurred on-board Envisat on 12 December 2006 at 18:02 UTC leading to the interruption of the measurements of all the payload instruments. The current state of Investigations seems to indicate that the anomaly could have been caused by a magnetic activity recently caused by a high peak of solar activities. "

The Sky is Falling, The Sky is Falling !

MrBillM - 12-14-2006 at 09:42 AM

Well, so far, if this potentially calamity hadn't been brought to our attention, we'd have gone through the day unaffected and unknowing.

We did have a couple of Earthquakes up here in the past few days and some Gale-Force winds one night. Could that be a result ? I had thought that those might be the fault of GWB, but since there was no damage, he escaped blame.

I'm "Really" Worried, though !

Elena La Loca - 12-14-2006 at 09:45 AM

So far so good as far as HF propagation...

It was my "day in the barrel" as net control for the Baja Maritime Net (daily at 1600 UTC currently on or around 7259mHz) and I had stations as far north as NT7N in Redmond, OR, as far east as W7DMT in Green Valley, AZ, and as far south as XE2/N7KVJ in San Jose del Cabo, BCS clear as a bell.

Should be interesting how the day unfolds. Thanks for the info...it's fascinating!!!

73 de N6UWW

Bruce R Leech - 12-14-2006 at 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Elena La Loca
So far so good as far as HF propagation...

It was my "day in the barrel" as net control for the Baja Maritime Net (daily at 1600 UTC currently on or around 7259mHz) and I had stations as far north as NT7N in Redmond, OR, as far east as W7DMT in Green Valley, AZ, and as far south as XE2/N7KVJ in San Jose del Cabo, BCS clear as a bell.

Should be interesting how the day unfolds. Thanks for the info...it's fascinating!!!

73 de N6UWW

HF propagation... has been good in the mornings to just past mid day. at night it has been terrible on the lower bands.

73

Neal Johns - 12-14-2006 at 12:04 PM

FARASHA, not to worry, I have completely recovered:

NEAL.JPG - 20kB

Cypress - 12-14-2006 at 12:21 PM

Guess this event will have no impact on off the grid folks.

Barry A. - 12-14-2006 at 12:25 PM

Neal------Nice picture of your Great Grandson----I certainly see the family resemblence.

Barry

FARASHA - 12-14-2006 at 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Neal Johns
FARASHA, not to worry, I have completely recovered:

whoa, good to know you're fine - was really concerned Neal;
BTW tell your great grandson he is now on MY list of MiW too - :biggrin:

NO electromagnetic sideeffects to be seen or heard of over here Bruce.

Bruce R Leech - 12-15-2006 at 06:54 AM

some thing is wrong with the electricity here in Mulege. for 4 days the power has not been off and normally we have 1 or 2 or more outages a day maybe the soler events can fix things also.