BajaNomad

Cold water for Pacific is forecast this summer

Taco de Baja - 3-8-2007 at 01:15 PM

Quote:
Thursday, March 8, 2007

Good-bye El Niño, hello La Niña. Forecasters are seeing a shift in weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean that typically translates into an especially dry period for Southern California. La Niña is a natural, periodic climate change in which a cooling trend over the Pacific leads to below-average rainfall in this region.

Orange County could face an exceptionally dangerous fire season. Since July 1, the county has received 1.88 inch of rain – eight inches below normal. And the National Weather Service says no major storms are in sight.

La Niña can cool local ocean waters during the summer, so swimmers and surfers might find water temperatures in the low 60s or high 50s, rather than the normal high 60s to low 70s. One cautionary note: These same forecasters said an emerging El Niño this winter would bring above-average rain to Southern California.





Link

Hook - 3-8-2007 at 01:32 PM

It doesnt matter if we get ten times our normal rainfall or 1/10. The OC Fire Authority always screams EXTREME FIRE DANGER, closes the hills and sits around playing cards while they figure out this week's grocery list.:lol:

I am tired of having areas closed just because a POSSIBILITY exists that someone could start a fire and they might actually have to do their job. That's one of the main reasons I'm leaving OC.

As far as the La Nina prediction goes, we'll see if it's as inaccurate as their recently-cancelled El Nino prediction this year.

jerry - 3-8-2007 at 01:48 PM

how will this weather affect the fishing in baja?? last year being a banner yr will it wain or just drop off to nothing??

Taco de Baja - 3-8-2007 at 01:54 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Hook

As far as the La Nina prediction goes, we'll see if it's as inaccurate as their recently-cancelled El Nino prediction this year.


El Nino was real :yes:...That's the reason now given as to why 0 Atlantic Hurricanes hit the USA last year. He scared them all away……:rolleyes:....La Nina is supposed to be an Atlantic Hurricane magnet....We'll see.

I agree on Fire Authority comment. Have a season with no rain: "DANGER!!!" have a season with 3 times the normal rain: "DANGER!!". Have a season with normal rain: "DANGER!".

bajajazz - 3-8-2007 at 02:23 PM

What is the anticipated effect on hurricanes hitting the Baja peninsula this year? Anyone care to venture a guess?

Osprey - 3-8-2007 at 02:29 PM

Since I haven't yet fixed the roof damage I sustained from Hurricane John I would say there's an excellent chance we'll get hit hard.

50-50

woody with a view - 3-8-2007 at 04:41 PM

just like everything in life. it will or it won't.:light:

Joelt - 3-8-2007 at 05:44 PM

A few years back when there was supposed to be an El Nino winter I heard a serious report from the national weather service that said that it would cause either above normal rain fall, below normal rain fall or average rain fall. Also the temperatures would be either above, below, or at normal temperatures. I think this was the first report I've heard that was right. At least a third of the time. As far as fire in So. Cal. it's supposed to burn regularly. So if you don't let it burn you are going to have extreme fires. Fire good. Smokey the bear bad.

Alan - 3-9-2007 at 11:29 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Joelt
As far as fire in So. Cal. it's supposed to burn regularly. So if you don't let it burn you are going to have extreme fires. Fire good. Smokey the bear bad.

I would love to let fires burn. I would love to never have to go to another friend's funeral that died fighting these fires but I also know it's just not going to happen. People will continue to build in "natural" settings and will continue to refuse to remove the vegetation around their house because it would destroy the "natural" setting which is why they built there in the first place. Yet they will still demand that I save their house and over the last 30 years I have lost many friend's who were trying to do so.

OCFA is right. It is going to have the potential to be another dangerous year.... regardless of the rain! Late season rains result in heavy grass crops that eventually die off and produce fast running fires. No rain years result in the heavier fuels losing their moisture and allowing them to more readily burn with extreme intensity. When we get the winds everything will burn. Fuels seperation doesn't mean much when you have 100' horizontal flame lengths. Fuel moistures drop rapidly when you have 5% RH. Southern Ca will always have prime burning conditions and when all conditions (fuels, weather and ignition sources) come together we are going to burn and the fires are going to continue to get larger. I remember as a kid in the 50's all of our ridge lines had fire breaks that were dozed in every year so we always had a control point. Someone decided that they were not aesthetically pleasing and hugging trees was more important. Until you are prepared to pave all of So Cal we will have fires, big fires. The only option currently available to us is to ask people to be fire safe and limit ignition sources in high hazard areas. I am sorry for the rant but the Esperanza is still too fresh.

shari - 3-9-2007 at 02:11 PM

Cooer water temps sound fine to me as the word is it is going to be a VERY HOT HOT summer in baja...so cooler pacific temps mean cooler air for us making it bearable in the summer. Way to go niña...brace yourselves for hurricaine season though...gulp

Hook - 3-9-2007 at 03:04 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Alan
OCFA is right. It is going to have the potential to be another dangerous year.... regardless of the rain!

The only option currently available to us is to ask people to be fire safe and limit ignition sources in high hazard areas. I am sorry for the rant but the Esperanza is still too fresh.


Of course OCFA is right.......no matter what the conditions the winter before, they yell FIRE!

And OCFA has come up with another option you didnt mention.......prohibiting the use of public lands by the public. We pay taxes to use the lands we own. It's another case of losing a freedom because of what MIGHT happen.

We pay them to fight fires when they happen; not to infringe on personal freedom to make their jobs safer.

The losses in the Esperanza fire were unfortunate. But it comes with the job. You know going in that its a dangerous business.

It's like fighting wars for freedom worldwide...........and then turning around and having a police state to live in. What's the point?

BTW, was there ever a conclusion to the investigation into those deaths in the Esperanze fire? Seemed like someone sent those guys into the wrong place.

wornout - 3-9-2007 at 04:09 PM

Well, now that Al Gore has an Oscar, I am sure he will be ready to jump in if it gets bad, after all, he did invent the internet, just ask him.