BajaNomad

Baja Hurricane Forecast

oxxo - 8-27-2007 at 07:41 AM

I was reading an interesting article in Friday's edition of the Los Cabos Daily News entitled, "Third Forecast for the Hurricane Season Reveled."

This forecast was generated by Conagua, Mexico's National Weather Service, and SMN, the National Meteorological Society, in La Paz. What they did was take measurments of "sea temperatures and weather conditions" at the end of June. They then compared these measurements to previous years. They found that this year's measurements were consistent with measurements for the years, 1960, 1970, 1988, and 2003. They ananalyzed what weather conditions were like in those years.

Based on that analysis Conagua is forcasting that "Around 15 tropical weather phenomena are expected to be named in the Pacific (to reach tropical storm status); of these 8 will remain at that level, 5 will become hurricanes and 2 might become intense hurricanes." This forecast covers the period from approximately August 15 to October 15.

The article goes on to say, "It is intersting to comment that as the season progresses, more ocean and atmospheric information is collected, allowing for more accurate predictions. In the hurricane season, 4 forecasts are emitted."

Finally, the article concludes with, "However, there can never be an absolute assurance on the number or intensity of tropical phenomena, which is why it is important for the population to take the necessary precautions."

woody with a view - 8-27-2007 at 03:53 PM

"keep your eyes peeled in a couple of days," said the little birdie...........:light: