bajabound2005 - 8-31-2007 at 05:34 AM
From weather.com
In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 11-E has become minimal Tropical Storm Henriette and is located less than 100 miles south of Acapulco. The
forecast track will carry this system parallel to the western Mexican Coast through the weekend, and into early next week.
Heavy rain will be the primary risk, but increased wind and waves will also impact the area. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been posted for
portions of the western Mexican Coast, in anticipation of continued development.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gil, located nearly 500 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, continues to move west, away from land. Gil is forecast
to maintain minimal tropical storm status through the weekend, but weaken to a tropical depression early next week.
Russ - 8-31-2007 at 08:11 AM
This one may be of interest later:
bajajudy - 8-31-2007 at 03:07 PM
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 312034
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH
LAND...THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
AND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT
CHANGED. A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO STEER HENRIETTE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST
BECOME UNCERTAIN SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. MODELS ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND MOST OF THEM BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 16.2N 101.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 18.0N 104.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 24.5N 113.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
