Henrietta

I think we better get prepared.

And the computer models have some even closer to us, some a direct hit.

Henrietta. The folks down in Baja will be able to handle her. Just another puff of wind and the rain will be appreciated.

I guess we'll know more by morning.

Here's a photo of the changed predicted path BajaBruno posted:

This looks like a worst case scenario. It is also slowing down, which is the very worst for the Mulege River flooding. I was hoping it would speed right through, with the mountains breaking it up. I had spent all winter and spring restoring my then brand new house....and now this.

Today I called some people in Mulege and they weren't even aware that Henrietta had turned. Cabo, Todos Santos, Mulege, Santa Rosalia, San Ignacio....heads up. I wish you/us the best. You have time.....make a plan.

Latest update says it will hit Baja sooner.
Look out Cabo, Todos Santos and La Paz !!

[Edited on 9-3-2007 by Diver]

Here's a current view of the actual storm...

This morning

Thanks for the forward sightings, Judy. Looks like the La Paz area will be on the "dirty side" Please take it seriously everyone, and be safe!
ol

Stay safe everyone and post as often as you can! We count on all you nomads there
to let us know what happening

However Shari, these computer models have your area as a target. Button down and suerte

I hope not because we are not there and we don't have window storm protection yet.

Diane

It's definitely getting more organized

Henrietta

Hope this isn't redundant This one is Sept. 3 8.00 A.M.

Starting to cloud up here in Todos Santos.

Hey, Marie Rose, Maryanne said we could all have a hurricane party at her house. I'm cleaning out my liquor cabinet. You and Fred wanna come down?

You are going to make us cry... would love to be there, hurricane and all

Sounds like you guys have been having one party after the other... any excuse
All kidding aside, stay safe and we are glad you are all taking care of each other!!

Henrietta

Carrot top palm trees in Mexico? The condo's can't be far behind.

Storm shutters are up

Looks like she wont be too strong of a hurricane but who knows. Actually still isnt a hurricane

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 032054
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007

WHILE HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE
DAY...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT
BASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 58 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 24-36
HOURS OVER OPEN WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HENRIETTE
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED LOWER.

HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO CRAWL ALONG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 315/05. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN
REASONABLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS. DESPITE
THE CLUSTERING...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST
IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THIS TENDENCY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE
FIRST 36 HOURS. ONCE IT CROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A
SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
48-72 HOURS. DISSIPATION OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE
WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.1N 108.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 22.3N 110.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 23.8N 110.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 25.4N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Here you go Shari

I am very busy adjusting my sails..more later

It is a film that is applied from the inside, it is about 7 mm thick and will withstand I think up to a #4 hurricane. My son owns a company in Portland OR. and is in the process of starting a Mx. business in Los Barriles (where my house is) It also security and sun protection, we went with a very light shade protection and I noticed about 3-5 deg. difference in our house, the securtiy part is that you can hit it with a sledge hammer and not break thru the window, yes the window shatters but stays in place. Hope this is helpful. I can have my Son email you if you have more questions, he could give you a better "official" breakdown
Heike

Can we see some more "before" pictures of the new marina ??

.

Window protection

Heike,
Please check your u2u.

We had lots of looters after the Mulege flood. I wish the film you are discussing could go a little further than Diver's description: smash-grab the burgler and wrap up the intruder so he can be cut with a knife, after the window has shattered his fingers from the outside.

Henriette seems to be on a steady track.
Due to be a hurricane any time now....

8 p.m. update

public advisory 8 p.m.

Bad Luck

At least it "looks" like this one will be relatively mild. I think I can just make out a rough "eye" of the storm within the Cabo RADAR:



Nothing like how John looked.

3;00 am Tuesday Sept. 4 2007

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 040857
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...HENRIETTE STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

A 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA
NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO
SAN ANDRESITO.

AT 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST
COAST.

AT 2 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRIETTE IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...109.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI



The latest NOAA updates / images at La Paz Weather

Right-click - > view image will give you the full size image ( in FireFox )

Light rain here in La Paz, no air movement at all....

Tropical Storm Public Advisory - 5:00 am PDT on September 04, 2007

...Outer bands of Henriette approaching southern tip of Baja
California...

At 500 am PDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Henriette was
located near latitude 21.9 north...longitude 109.3 west or about 80
miles...125 km...south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja
California.

Henriette is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph...16
km/hr...and a north-northwestward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected for the next 24 hours. On this track the
center of Henriette is expected to be near or over the southern
Baja Peninsula by this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Henriette is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some intensification is possible prior to Henriette making
landfall over the southern Baja Peninsula.



The latest NOAA updates / images at La Paz Weather

[Edited on 4-9-2007 by Cervisin]

[Edited on 4-9-2007 by Cervisin]

5a.m. update

[Edited on 9-4-2007 by tortuga]

someone's getting wet...

here in mulege 6:15am it's clear
85 degrees
slight breeze

the calm before the storm???

you wouldn't EVEN think we going to get a drenching

hang on guys !

0730, Los Cabos

Well, Cabo San Lucas is going to get smacked head on later this afternoon. La Paz will probably take it on the nose in about 24 hours.

I am looking out my window and the surf looks like the north shore of Oahu. We are losing beach and our turtle hatchling pen is in danger of being washed away. Squalls are passing through the area. At times it is almost dark as night, with wind gusts to 40 knots and raining gatos y peros. Right now it is quite bright outside, with light winds, and just drizzle.

There is a bit of a horizon on the sea to the south, but everything is just grey overcast.

We don't feel threatened at this time, but this should prove interesting as the day progresses. I'm going to go fix myself a bowl of oatmeal and watch the show. I think we'll just hang around the casa today and stay dry!

Suerte

Centenario 8:20 AM Light-medium rain (NOT sprinkles), wind is picking up...I'm a lousy judge of wind speed, but it's more than a breeze...possibly 5-8 mph now. There's a water leak in a 6' section of the hall roof here in the rental PIT, and it looks like the animals & I will be getting a shower each time we go into or out of the bedroom!!!

Edit typo

[Edited on 9-4-2007 by longlegsinlapaz]

LMAO....8 bottles here! I know that, but I should be fine here with all my earthly possessions. Thanks for the offer!! Going to take a run up to my property while I can still get outta here & up the hill to see if all materials were stowed & all foam debris removed from the area & put inside the bodega...per my request...to prevent the entire hillside looking like the top of Mt. Hood after the winds hit!

Pics Malecon La Paz ca. 45 minutes ago

Here some shots - the rest at the La Paz Blog, link below, dont wanna take to much bandwith here




More pics at La Paz Blog here

The latest NOAA updates / images at La Paz Weather

My little vacation to Los Barriles was cut short to get home before the storm. Saturday fishing along the beach was excellent, Sunday it was great too until the late afternoon then it shut off, no action no bites. Monday morning same thing, no fish. The fish always know that something is approaching. My theory is they can detect changes in pressure and go off their bite. The Spa Buena Vista where we stayed, pulled their boats out of the water on Monday.

When we left Los Barilles it looked like rain would fall any minute that was about 1pm. We left La Paz at 5pm and the clouds to the south were ominous. We saw lightning to our east as we drove north. constitucion got rain and we were rained on briefly but we made it home to Loreto safely at 10:30pm. Now it is starting to cloud up and this is from the periphery of the storm.

I just checked the latest sat images and a defined eye has formed this storm may be borderline 2 when it hits, which looks like pretty soon. Remember the SOC SST´s are in the low 90´s F and that tends to attract storms. Worst case scenario for Loreto is the storm moves over La Paz then maintains strength over water to the east of the peninsula (like Marty did). If that is the case it will maintain hurricane strength. Best case is that it weakens over land and moves through quickly. Either way Loreto´s downtown area will be a disaster as streets are still unpaved.

After the youngest is brought to school we´ll be prepping the house for this storm. The flash flooding takes more lives and damages more property than the winds. Another thing to note is the predictions are basically shots in the dark at this point as the storm will do what it wants and will dictate the local atmospheric conditions and not be so much dictated by them. The predictions rely on curent and predicted atmospheric conditions as they cannot base predictions on the unknown factors that these storms create. hope that made some sense.



[Edited on 9-4-2007 by flyfishinPam]

Wind

Good Luck all! After John most of you know what to expect and how to deal with it.

10 AM Centenario area

I just took a 30-40 minute run (well, okay, in my car!) from Centenario to Lomas Centenatio...the far end behind the CIB road "you pump" PEMEX, near Comitan and then back towards La Pax to the "they pump" PEMEX in Chametla...there's a lot of standing water on all the dirt roads; some are already impassable mud bogs & the sand road in front of the rental PIT is an arroyo; the highway has many places where it's already covered with standing water road-edge to road-edge. It is still passable, but probably won't be for many more hours. There's a lot more traffic on the highway that I'd expected! My battery back-up is chirping like a cricket, so our always unstable power supply probably won't last out the storm!

Looking South

Calm before the storm at 10:15 a.m. Tuesday in Loreto

Looking East

here's some more