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Ivo

vandenberg - 9-19-2007 at 09:16 AM

Should we expect some weather out of this :?:

bajajazz - 9-19-2007 at 09:24 AM

Yes.

edinnopolo - 9-19-2007 at 09:25 AM

Let's hope some rain only. BCS sure can use it.

Roberto - 9-19-2007 at 11:11 AM

Check out the evolution of the forecasts for this thing so far:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/graphics/ep12/loop_5W.s...

edinnopolo - 9-19-2007 at 03:24 PM

Seems to be on track to the Cabo region. :?:

Ivo

tortuga - 9-19-2007 at 04:43 PM

2 p.m. projection from n.h.c.

[Edited on 9-20-2007 by tortuga]

[Edited on 9-20-2007 by tortuga]

ivo5day.gif - 28kB

tortuga - 9-19-2007 at 04:53 PM

As of 2 p.m. PDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Ivo is about 585 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Ivo is located near 15.4 north, 111.9 west and is moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph with gusts to near 85 mph. The estimated surface pressure is 990 millibars or 29.23 inches of mercury. Current upper-air data shows only weak northwest shear over the system, and water temperatures are very warm. Tropical Storm Ivo should strengthen into a hurricane over the next 12 to 24 hours as it tracks northwestward on the southwest periphery of a high pressure area over Mexico. An unusually strong upper-level trough will build down the West Coast of the United States through Friday, tugging on the system and causing it to turn more to the north, then perhaps to the northeast by this weekend. At the same time, this upper-level system will create strong vertical wind shear over top the system, causing it to weaken. Current computer model output suggests this system could threaten the southern Baja California area and perhaps the west coast of mainland Mexico this weekend. Tropical depression 13 is near 128.8 west, 17.4 north or 1,280 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Tropical Depression 13-E was moving to the west at 7 mph and had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. This system will likely develop into a tropical storm over the next 24 to 36 hours. The system is not expected to directly impact Hawaii at this time. By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Alex Sosnowski and Dan Kottlowski

IVO ?

MrBillM - 9-19-2007 at 05:03 PM

This Storm naming has gotten ridiculous.

Where the heck is IVO a name ?

A cursory search shows a few Italian and Croatian references, but not many. I've never met or heard of an "Ivo".

Russ - 9-19-2007 at 05:10 PM

I think that is a good thing. Naming a storm no one has ever heard of. Maybe it'll pass unnoticed!

markshark - 9-19-2007 at 05:18 PM

doesnt anyone remember tommy IVO???
set a bunch of records in the 50's driving a twin engine buick dragster.

bajajudy - 9-19-2007 at 05:20 PM

Whatever its name is, I am not rebattening down the hatches yet. Heck I just got all the palm whispies off my windows.

You betcha

Sharksbaja - 9-19-2007 at 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by markshark
doesnt anyone remember tommy IVO???
set a bunch of records in the 50's driving a twin engine buick dragster.

I loved building scale models of those beauties.

Mexitron - 9-19-2007 at 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MrBillM
This Storm naming has gotten ridiculous.

Where the heck is IVO a name ?

A cursory search shows a few Italian and Croatian references, but not many. I've never met or heard of an "Ivo".

My old girlfriend's son-in-law was named Ivo...Ivo Watts-Russell of 4AD Records fame--he's English.

roundtuit - 9-19-2007 at 08:10 PM

Don't know Tommy Ivo, but there are three Ivo's on this board. Don't know which way to run.....
:no:

Peloncito - 9-19-2007 at 09:50 PM

Hope this one remains a cat 1 or tropical storm. I keep thinking back to all the nastys and it seems their names are always around the "H, I, J, K" alphabet. Henriette, Ignacio, Isis, Juliette, Juan, Kiko..... Late September I guess?

Bajabus - 9-19-2007 at 11:04 PM

I sure won't forget Juliette....that sucker stalled over Elias Calles for what seemed like an eternity and was like being in a blender on churn...what a mess.

21 inches in 24 hours on the rain gauge

IVO

tortuga - 9-20-2007 at 05:19 AM

[Edited on 9-20-2007 by tortuga]

ivo920.gif - 30kB

IVO

tortuga - 9-20-2007 at 05:23 AM

As of 2 a.m. PDT Thursday, Hurricane Ivo is about 475 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ivo is located near 16.5 north, 112.5 west and is moving to the north-northwest at 7 mph. Maximum-sustained winds are now near 75 mph with gusts to near 90 mph. The estimated surface pressure is 287 millibars or 29.15 inches of mercury. A strong upper-level trough will be digging down the West Coast of the United States over the next two days, and this storm will help draw Ivo northward. At the same time, this trough will increase the vertical wind shear over top of the system, causing it to weaken. This storm will likely affect southern Baja California and perhaps the Mexican states of Sonora and Sinaloa this weekend, though likely not as a strong hurricane. Tropical Depression 13 is near 17.8 north, 129.8 west or 1,350 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Tropical Depression 13-E was moving to the west-northwest at 6 mph and had maximum-sustained winds of 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. The depression is over water that is not especially warm, and is battling easterly wind shear, so little if any strengthening is likely. The system is not forecast to affect Hawaii. By AccuWeather Meteorologist Bob Tarr.

Osprey - 9-20-2007 at 06:06 AM

I guess you don't remember that famous biker dare-devil Ivo Kneivel.

Hook - 9-20-2007 at 06:55 AM

Or Der Fuhrer's hotty......

Ivo Braun.

vandenberg - 9-20-2007 at 07:38 AM

Nitpicking bunch :tumble:

Hook - 9-20-2007 at 08:27 AM

Naw, we're just having fun with the Camp Curmudgeon...........there is apparently no limits on what he will complain about. :lol:

edinnopolo - 9-20-2007 at 08:56 AM

In the mean time,

edinnopolo - 9-20-2007 at 08:57 AM

Again

edinnopolo - 9-20-2007 at 08:58 AM

Got unknown error message :?:

Curmudgeon ?

MrBillM - 9-20-2007 at 09:19 AM

Well, OK.

At least it prompted a few responses worth reading.

"Tommy Ivo" ? Never heard of him, but then I was never into Drag Racing.

It's STILL a very uncommon name.

backninedan - 9-20-2007 at 09:41 AM

Tommy Ivo was also in the second "beach blanket" movie. Played himself a drag racer.

How's that for totally usless info.

Hook - 9-20-2007 at 10:05 AM

I believe I saw Ivo race several times at OCIR in the late 60s. Clearly remember Garlits in the rear engine Top Fuelers. The Snake, the Mongoose.......those were some good memories.

This thread is about as predictable as the course of a hurricane. :biggrin:

Is this what you wanted, Ed?

edinnopolo - 9-20-2007 at 10:22 AM

Yes Hook. Thanx.

toneart - 9-20-2007 at 03:17 PM

IVO is the masculine form of IVA.....taxes. And that is what hurricanes do. Where are the Mexican conservatives when we need them? :spingrin:

Mango - 9-20-2007 at 03:31 PM

Maybe IVO is just a TLA (Three Letter Abbreviation) for another name...

Hmm.. now what could that be... :?:

Intense Vicious Overcastination..

Ok.. well I made up the last word... :lol:

Bajabus - 9-20-2007 at 05:16 PM

At no point in time has the name IVO even made the top 100 according to the baby name wizard

cool site but you need a Java enabled browser to play with the program

Bob and Susan - 9-20-2007 at 07:28 PM

think'in 'bout havin' a baby..bajabus? :lol:

Bob H - 9-20-2007 at 07:32 PM

Interesting loop here... it's worth waiting for the download.
Bob H

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/loop-vis.html

Bajabus - 9-20-2007 at 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bob and Susan
think'in 'bout havin' a baby..bajabus? :lol:

Just had one about 10 months ago to this day. Beautiful boy named Luca. :bounce:

Hook - 9-20-2007 at 08:16 PM

Interesting loop, Bob. We'll be able to watch the effects of that Pacific front on Ivo. It's supposed to force it more easterly towards
Baja.

bacquito - 9-20-2007 at 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by edinnopolo
Let's hope some rain only. BCS sure can use it.

So can Ensenada

Bob H - 9-20-2007 at 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by edinnopolo
Let's hope some rain only. BCS sure can use it.

I think BCS will get their fair share of rain from the looks of this predicted track. Let's just hope not too much.
Bob H

Mexitron - 9-21-2007 at 06:02 AM

Central Baja was soooooooo dry last month---I hope either the winter low drops south from CA or Ivo puts some rain up there. Wonder if a hurricane has ever combined with a winter low pressure system on the west coast(aka--the "perfect storm").

edinnopolo - 9-21-2007 at 09:18 AM

Is she/he already falling apart :?:

toneart - 9-21-2007 at 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by edinnopolo
Is she/he already falling apart :?:

He. Ivo is masculine, or else she wears G.I. boots. :tumble:

vandenberg - 9-21-2007 at 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by edinnopolo
Is she/he already falling apart :?:

Sure appears that way

Naming Conventions for the Eastern Pacific

MrBillM - 9-21-2007 at 11:06 AM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Eastern North Pacific naming follows the same scheme as the North Atlantic, but with its own lists. The present naming system was introduced a year earlier than the Atlantic system, when List IV was used anomalously in 1978, but List I was used in 1979 in parallel with that in the Atlantic. Names starting with X, Y and Z were only added in 1985 when the number of storms threatened to exhaust the list and are repeated every two years instead of every six as very few names begin with X, Y and Z ("Xina" was used in 1985, and "Zeke" in 1992). Hurricane names are retired as in the Atlantic, but names are more rarely retired as they are rarely damaging; the last hurricane to have its name retired was Hurricane Kenna of 2002.

List 5 (2007)
• Alvin
• Barbara
• Cosme
• Dalila
• Erick
• Flossie
• Gil
• Henriette
• Ivo
• Juliette
• Kiko
• Lorena
• Manuel
• Narda
• Octave
• Priscilla
• Raymond
• Sonia
• Tico
• Velma
• Wallis
• Xina
• York
• Zelda

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_tropical_cyclone_names

Bob and Susan - 9-21-2007 at 11:41 AM

you mean Juliette is back NEXT!!! :?:

bajajudy - 9-21-2007 at 01:47 PM

Ivo has petered out. :bounce:

comitan - 9-21-2007 at 02:47 PM

Judy

After that statement I'm going to batten down the hatches. Big mistake it still out there in warm water and IVO must(could) be a womens name. :lol:

[Edited on 9-21-2007 by comitan]

Roberto - 9-21-2007 at 03:06 PM

comitan - NOAA would seem to agree with you. They leave a lot of open questions. In addition, even if not a full hurricane (it's now 1 MPH below a Cat 1), it's path could carry a lot of rain into the mountains between the Pacific and Cortez coasts.

edinnopolo - 9-21-2007 at 03:30 PM

Somehow the GFDL computer model seems to have it right on the button this season. They have it/her/him stall off the coast. Too bad ,we can use the rain.

vandenberg - 9-21-2007 at 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by edinnopolo
Somehow the GFDL computer model seems to have it right on the button this season. They have it/her/him stall off the coast. Too bad ,we can use the rain.

True

comitan - 9-21-2007 at 03:46 PM

Yes Van sorry to say I'm a real believer in that model, I was hoping for a little more rain.

At 2:00 p.m. or so was this

John M - 9-21-2007 at 04:55 PM

CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico (AP) — Hurricane Ivo was downgraded to a tropical storm Friday and was expected to continue to weaken as it headed toward Mexico's Baja California peninsula, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The storm had sustained winds of about 70 mph and was slowly chugging northeast toward Mexico.

Forecasters predicted it would be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression by the time it hit a relatively unpopulated stretch of coastline far north of the resort of Cabo San Lucas, probably sometime early Monday.

John M

comitan - 9-21-2007 at 05:02 PM

WTPZ42 KNHC 212035
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2007

IVO APPEARED TO BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL ABOUT 5 OR 6 HOURS AGO...
BUT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
DESPITE THE NEW CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB ARE 55 KT AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. A 1356 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
ESTIMATED 50 TO 55 KT WIND VECTORS. BLENDING THE ABOVE ESTIMATES
RESULTS IN LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT. WHILE THE
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING
AFTER 12 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND HWRF.

IVO IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
005/5. THE GENERAL TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS COMPLICATED AND SOLUTIONS
FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...IT
IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW WILL HAVE ON STEERING IVO NORTHEASTWARD. ONLY THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS STALL
IVO SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR IVO TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA... BUT AT A SLOWER PACE AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE FSSE
GUIDANCE.

ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 20.1N 113.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 20.8N 113.2W

GFDL has it now coming across the southern Baja in 3 days?

[Edited on 9-22-2007 by comitan]

breaking up

Sunman - 9-21-2007 at 05:09 PM

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsp2.html

Definitely breaking up....Better than a full force hit...

bajajudy - 9-21-2007 at 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by comitan
Yes Van sorry to say I'm a real believer in that model, I was hoping for a little more rain.

I thought that you would be busy battening down those hatches

comitan - 9-21-2007 at 05:31 PM

Its together enough that if it stays out there in that warm water for 3 days It can build to a hurricane.

bajajudy - 9-21-2007 at 05:45 PM

Ivo Weakens, but Closing on Baja
As of 2 p.m. PDT Friday, Ivo had been downgraded to a tropical storm and was about 300 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Ivo is located near 20.1 north, 113.4 west and is moving to the north at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with gusts to near 85 mph. The estimated surface pressure is 990 millibars or 29.24 inches of mercury. A strong upper-level trough will be moving eastward toward the coast of southern California today, and this trough will help pull Ivo northward. This trough also contains strong upper-level winds, which will increase wind shear over Ivo and cause it to slowly weaken. This has begun over the past several hours with the more northern track and somewhat higher central pressure evident. This storm will track across the southern Baja Peninsula later Monday as a tropical storm, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. Some of Ivo's moisture will be pulled into Arizona and New Mexico on Sunday into Monday, resulting in spotty showers and thunderstorms over the area. The only other area of concern is from the remnants of Tropical Depression 13E, now centered close to 16 north, 131 west. Thunderstorms have begun to occur again in the region and the feature may regenerate if it continues to drift to the southeast as it has over the last 24 hours. By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski and Meteorologist Frank Strait

comitan - 9-21-2007 at 05:50 PM

Judy you take accuweather I'll take NOAA weather GFDL track. as of 2PM. In any case hope it brings us a little rain!

bajajudy - 9-21-2007 at 05:57 PM

That is interesting.
So you think that it will go south of Baja?

ep200712_model.gif - 27kB

Roberto - 9-21-2007 at 06:32 PM

The southern California trough has fizzled down to nothing. It stalled off the coast and never made it here. Supposedly, some areas in the mountains MAY get as much as 1/2" of rain. Let's see what happens.

comitan - 9-21-2007 at 06:37 PM

No.

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR IVO TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA... BUT AT A SLOWER PACE AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE FSSE
GUIDANCE.

This is from the 2PM that I posted above.

Russ - 9-22-2007 at 05:42 AM

Just playing in PhotoShop

[Edited on 9-22-2007 by Russ]

Ivo 9-22-07 AM.jpg - 48kB

comitan - 9-22-2007 at 06:57 AM

Russ

Your guess is as good as anyones including NOAA./

vandenberg - 9-22-2007 at 07:09 AM

:?:

edinnopolo - 9-22-2007 at 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by vandenberg
:?:

This

Pappy Jon - 9-22-2007 at 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Russ
Just playing in PhotoShop

[Edited on 9-22-2007 by Russ]

Looks close to NOAA.

[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP12/refresh/EP1207W_sm2+gif/143525W_sm.gif[/img]

[Edited on 9-22-2007 by Pappy Jon]

Cypress - 9-22-2007 at 01:24 PM

Baja's gonna get some wind and rain.

comitan - 9-22-2007 at 04:01 PM

Looks like we're back, we now have rain and no wind just wonderful.

edinnopolo - 9-22-2007 at 07:18 PM

Sure looks like it is getting here a lot faster then predicted.

amir - 9-23-2007 at 04:01 AM

Sunday 5:00 a.m. in Todos Santos:

It is lightning all around us, especially from the Pacific horizon Southwest of us and over the Sierra de La Laguna to our East. No rain in Todos Santos, yet.

Yesterday in the afternoon the wind picked up for a couple of hours and we secured the yard. Electric power went out for a few hours but only in part of town; luckily the Pemex had power so I filled the Jeep, and the gas attendant told me that it was very dark and raining hard in Cabo San Lucas right then. That was in the middle of the afternoon on Saturday.

Then I bought bottled water, ice and tequila, and prepared to await for a chubasco that, we're finding out, may fizzle out before it gets here...

Russ - 9-23-2007 at 06:37 AM

Now appears that maybe there will some rain. But unfortunately, not up here.

screenshot_01 copy.jpg - 41kB

Marie-Rose - 9-23-2007 at 11:26 AM

Anybody got the latest for the LaPaz /TS area :?:

Shimmer - 9-23-2007 at 11:53 AM

Todos Santos... 12:45pm

Grey skies to the west, Sierra socked in....blue sky/partly cloudy overhead. Light winds. Not a drop yet.

The blackest skies seem to be to the west, not southwest.

No Se.

S

edinnopolo - 9-23-2007 at 12:09 PM

Getting smaller :biggrin:

Cypress - 9-23-2007 at 12:31 PM

lvo is fizzeling out. :biggrin:

comitan - 9-23-2007 at 02:21 PM

Whats left is over,Todos Santos right now are you finally getting rain?

amir - 9-23-2007 at 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by comitan
Whats left is over,Todos Santos right now are you finally getting rain?

3:38 in the afternoon: No rain in Todos Santos yet, but it looks like it wants to...

Se Fue

bajajudy - 9-23-2007 at 04:50 PM

ivo.gif - 28kB

marv sherrill - 9-23-2007 at 05:14 PM

I have a friend named uva - does that count? call him Mr. Grape!

edinnopolo - 9-23-2007 at 05:26 PM

AAAAHHH !!! A Comediant :lol: