BajaNomad - The new here and now---

The new here and now---

Baja Bernie - 10-7-2007 at 10:02 PM

should any of this be true then it matters not what we do about immigration from Mexico because before long they will no longer have a surplus (if they even do now) of workers to export across the border...............

October 7, 2007

Immigration/Economic News

Exporting Mexico's Demographic Bonus

Especially during the last three years, fierce debate has raged in the
United States over the costs and benefits of immigration from Mexico. With
the exception of the issue of economic remittances sent by migrants, less
analysis has been focused on the possible impacts of emigration in Mexico.
A recent article by Mauricio Farah Gebara, representative of Mexico's
official National Human Rights Commission, suggests that the massive
emigration which has uprooted entire Mexican communities could be holding
back his country's economic development.

Citing the example of the so-called "Asian tigers," Farah argues that
nations realize economic transformation when a large percentage of their
populations is at a young, productive age. "Today (Asian nations) reap the
benefits and are genuine economic powers, with high standards of living,"
Farah writes. "It is precisely from this experience which the expression
demographic bonus derives."

In his treatment of the demographic bonus, Farah doesn't address other
factors that could help explain the economic boom in the Far East. For
instance, many Asian nations historically maintained high tariffs. On the
other hand, Mexico began opening up its economy in the early 1980s, a time
when its youthful demographic bulge was in full glory.

According to Farah, Mexico's demographic bonus began kicking in about
1970, when 47.5 percent of the population was less than 15 years of age
and an even larger group, 48.8 percent, was between 15 and 64 years of
age. The latter group represented a demographic spread that encompassed
many people considered to be at the peak of their productive capacity.
Almost forty years later, Farah notes, youths under 19 years of age
represent 34 percent of the population; people between 20 and 64 years of
age account for 55 percent of the total population.

Nowadays, Mexican society is aging. While in 1970 only 4.4 percent of the
population was older than 65 years of age, 11 percent of the population
fit into the same age grouping by 2006. Paralleling the growing graying of
the nation, Mexico's annual rate of population increase fell from a peak
of 3.4 percent in 1965 to 1.42 percent in 2006.

Citing statistics from Mexico's National Population Council, Farah
contends that emigration is limiting the availability of a domestic labor
force. In 2006, he writes, two million Mexicans were born and 500,000
died, thus resulting in an initial population growth of one-and-a-half
million people. Factoring in the estimated 560,000 people who moved to the
United States,
many of whom were in their working prime, Mexico's real population gain
amounted to 940,000 people, according to Farah.

Since women account for approximately 43 percent of the new migrants, the
feminization of emigration is having a profound effect on Mexico's
population growth and demography, Farah contends. Unlike earlier,
predominantly male migrants who frequently returned home, women tend to
stay in the United States.

"The physical and intellectual work force that emigrated will produce in
the United States, not in Mexico," Farah concludes. "We have to make sure
that Mexicans construct the future of Mexico. We have to stop the
exportation of our principal wealth."

Source: El Diario de El Paso, September 23, 2007. Article by Mauricio
Farah Gebara.

Frontera NorteSur (FNS): on-line, U.S.-Mexico border news
Center for Latin American and Border Studies
New Mexico State University
Las Cruces, New Mexico

[Edited on 10-8-2007 by Baja Bernie]

Dave - 10-8-2007 at 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Baja Bernie
"The physical and intellectual work force that emigrated will produce in
the United States, not in Mexico," Farah concludes. "We have to make sure
that Mexicans construct the future of Mexico. We have to stop the
exportation of our principal wealth."

U.S. population core is also rapidly aging. If properly exploited, Mexico's loss would be America's gain. IMO, complaints about illegal immigrant health care and educational costs are misguided and shortsighted.

bajalera - 10-8-2007 at 10:43 AM

Misguided, short-sighted--and when it comes to that misbegotten border wall, expensive.

DENNIS - 10-8-2007 at 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Baja Bernie

"We have to make sure
that Mexicans construct the future of Mexico. We have to stop the
exportation of our principal wealth."

Does this genius have any suggestions on how to do that?
In the meantime, the US will be blamed for slow economic development in Mexico because we have lured away their precious work force. Why not? They blame us for everything else anyway.

Gnome-ad - 10-8-2007 at 11:17 AM

Thank you, Bernie. This is a very interesting article. Have to agree with comments by Dave and bajalera, though I hate to see "America's gain" be Mexico's loss. I would like to see a win-win resolution in this problem, but that's rather pie-in-the-sky I know. The aging population on both sides of the border is a growing drain on both economies.

Gnome-ad - 10-8-2007 at 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by Baja Bernie

"We have to make sure
that Mexicans construct the future of Mexico. We have to stop the
exportation of our principal wealth."

Jeez, DENNIS – we’re not even in off topic and I have to butt heads with you a little. Do they (the Mexicans) really blame us (the USA) any more than the USA is currently blaming Mexicans for all our economic woes? I don’t think so. We are engaged in an insanely expensive escapade in the Middle East, but all our financial deficits and problems stem from those illegal workers who are quite the backbone of some businesses in the USA. Some are on assistance, but I feel the contributions far outweigh the costs of this workforce. Just think, if we didn’t have to pay assistance for any of those people we could drop another half a bomb somewhere. (sarcasm)

Gnome-ad

Baja Bernie - 10-8-2007 at 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gnome-ad
The aging population on both sides of the border is a growing drain on both economies.

The main problem is that now neither nation has a birth rate that is sufficient to replace the elderly after they have ceased to be a drain (I would rather think that, at least a few of us, still contribute--and are worth allowing to hang around---our remembered history's are far too short as it is).

Anyway! This could be a enlighening thread if we could all leave our baggage at the station and open our minds to others thoughts.

toneart - 10-8-2007 at 12:41 PM

Thank you Bernie.
I have always maintained that market conditions will take care of any perceived "immigration problem". If the jobs are here, they will come. If Mexico creates conditions where they can retain their working population, they will stay in Mexico. It looks to me like the shift has begun; especially now that construction has dried up.
I think we need Mexican labor. Make them legal. Tax them. They can pay our social security. Forget the stupid and expensive fence/wall.

I'm not ready to take Soylent Green yet! :no:

DENNIS - 10-8-2007 at 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gnome-ad
Do they (the Mexicans) really blame us (the USA) any more than the USA is currently blaming Mexicans for all our economic woes?

Mexico has blamed the US for everything wrong forever. We supply them with guns. If not for us, there would be no guns in Mexico.
We stole their land. Consequently, the border doesn't exist.
We are a consumer nation. If not for us, there would be no drug cartels and street crime.
Graffiti? That's our fault too.
Illegal immigration is a device of our making. Regardless of our laws, they feel they have a right to enter when and where they wish. The illegal part is our problem, not theirs, so they say.

What part or problems in our economy do we blame on Mexico? We have problems with law breakers within our society that produce an economic drain. That can't be denied although Mexico will deny it, like it's their place to do that.
If Mexico hadn't had the US for a scapegoat for all these years, they would have had huge dissent.

Cap - 10-8-2007 at 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS
If Mexico hadn't had the US for a scapegoat for all these years, they would have had huge dissent.

aye, there is the rub. It works in all cultures, especially if the populus is not well educated.
Proof:
Gay marriage amendment, keep the conservative base placated with silly social issues, while the so called small government party spends like a drunken sailor.

Actually that is too harsh... I didn't mean to insult drunken sailors.

We need laborers and tax payers, I fear opening the gates though, how about a faster system of differentiating and stealing the worlds talented people. Some sort of fast track HR department for the country?

Gnome-ad - 10-9-2007 at 12:05 PM

Bernie ~

Hope I didn't bring the onslaught of baggage to this thread. If so, I am so sorry. This is not the place to argue about politics really. And I did not mean the remark about aging demographics on both sides of the border being a drain as anything personal about any of the Nomads who are senior. It was a purely financial observation. I can only hope that I will continue to contribute in some small way myself and you, Bernie, contribute in many big ways and our histories are way too short, you are right.

I soon will be collecting my Social Security, that I paid into for many years. It just concerns me that my children who are also paying in will be told that they cannot retire until they are 75 in a culture (USA) that employs ageism in order to not employ or under employ those over 50. When I say my children I am really referring to all the young people. My children seem to be self-employed and successful at it. That may be the only hope of staying employed until retirement age for these next generations, and it is possible for only a few. I was promised retirement at 65, now it’s moved to 66, 67 for Amir … that’s why I say 75 for my children’s generation.

At least in Mexico they seem to hold the elderly in some esteem and provide, however meagerly, for retirement at ages when people are still young enough to enjoy themselves. But this begs the questions raised by the article of your post. What to do about the drain of young, productive Mexican workers to the north … wish I had a magic wand. Sadly that is my wish at the end of many provocative questions. It is something to think about. Perhaps the border will become more porous than it is now. I know this frightens many people, but the projections of “what ifs” are many times more frightening than the reality that is actually produced. I think this article requires us to think differently about the workers who cross into the USA legally or illegally. To have some perspective that it is not just a problem for the USA (which I’m not sure it is – I think it’s a boon for the USA), but that it is becoming a real problem for Mexico as well.

DENNIS - 10-9-2007 at 12:50 PM

Gnome........
How can one discuss international economics without discussing the politics which drive them? You must be kidding with your lamentations for Mexico losing their workforce. Don't you think 20 billion dollars a year into Mexico's economy would soften the blow?
Speaking of Blow....How much do the cartels invest in Mexico? More than you would ever imagine.
So, I hope you see that politics and economy are symbiotic. What would one be without the other?

Gnome-ad - 10-9-2007 at 03:04 PM

Oh, I do see that, Dennis, just felt that Bernie was not looking for a political argument here, so I'm not up to it. Burried in house plans right now anyway. Little posting from me for a few days yet most likely.

It's certainly a complex can of spaghetti (I hate canned worms - canned spaghetti, too, come to think of it). Too complex for me to even think about when there are all those doors and windows, electrical outlets and a million little details for the casa where I hopefully will live out the rest of my days. Please forgive me being self absorbed at the moment.

Still have not found my magic wand ...

DENNIS - 10-9-2007 at 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gnome-ad
Oh, I do see that, Dennis, just felt that Bernie was not looking for a political argument here.

Thanks, Gnome..... Neither one of us were arguing, we were discussing.
No idea what Bernie wanted here, he doesn't talk to me anymore but, I believe he has convictions similar to mine on the border issue although he tries so hard to assume the persona of a violated Mexican farmer that he won't admit it.

All's well with us, Gnome.....Thanks

CaboRon - 10-13-2007 at 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gnome-ad
Thank you, Bernie. This is a very interesting article. Have to agree with comments by Dave and bajalera, though I hate to see "America's gain" be Mexico's loss. I would like to see a win-win resolution in this problem, but that's rather pie-in-the-sky I know. The aging population on both sides of the border is a growing drain on both economies.

The only Win-Win situation is an open border.

-CaboRon

Packoderm - 10-13-2007 at 07:24 PM

The only way I would even begin to think about supporting an open border is if it were to be open both ways.

CaboRon - 10-13-2007 at 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Packoderm
The only way I would even begin to think about supporting an open border is if it were to be open both ways.

That's what an open border is... open.

-CaboRon

woody with a view - 10-13-2007 at 07:36 PM

as bill clinton once said, "that depends on what the definition of (open) "is" is....... :?:

there will NEVER be OPEN borders....equally! :light:

My intent

Baja Bernie - 10-13-2007 at 07:38 PM

in posting this report from New Mexico University as with many of my posts and comments in other places is normally based on attempting to get myself and others to at least look at our own ideas and beliefs with new information that, with a few, will allow their re-thinking.

I can and am very political away from this board but I do attempt to follow the basic rules of the guy who owns and controls this venue.

This board is really not designed to allow for a truly free exchange of thoughts and ideas basically because when the natural progression of a thought reaches a certain limit or restriction--ie the board IS basically about Baja. And as with this subject we are unable to follow a logical course of discussion ( even that word cannot be agreed upon here)

Anyway, I have my own thoughts in this area, and many others, but my effort, as I said, was to at least present information that would allow open minded folks to re-evaluate the data they possess in light of different information.

My reality is.....if I can't look into your eyes I can never truly know what you are thinking and that is very limiting anywhere in the internet.

No intent to change any others beliefs because I have a difficult enough time in dealing with my own.

Please notice my new signature.

Packoderm - 10-13-2007 at 07:40 PM

Yes CaboRon - Amexerca or something like that. And we might as will initiate the effort to get it open both directions because they seem to be successful in getting it open at least northward anyway whether we like it or not. But we have the Mexican Constitution in the way of an open border.

Pack

Baja Bernie - 10-14-2007 at 12:32 PM

You know it really was open both ways back in the '50's and then the bureaucrats from both sides gathered and came up with a plan to ruin what had been so beautiful for hundreds of years---just ask the Indians who were separated from family members by a stupid line drawn in the sand by Washington & Mexico City. No consideration at all of reality.