BajaNomad - Real Estate Prices

Real Estate Prices

castaway$ - 11-27-2007 at 03:37 PM

I'm curious to see what my fellow Nomads think is happening , or is going to happen with the real estate prices in Baja. It would stand to reason that americans have been the principal buyers for homes and land in the coastal regions. With our current market conditions throughout the U.S. declining and the dollar weakening it seems Americans will be less inclined to purchase second homes especially given the risk of buying in a foreign country. I'm wondering if this is going to cause an eventual down turn in the Baja market and a subsequent overload of properties on the market which will lead to lower prices, not that it's that bad now compared to the U.S.

Slowmad - 11-27-2007 at 03:45 PM

"When the U.S. sneezes, Baja gets double pneumonia."

Woooosh - 11-27-2007 at 03:55 PM

Yup, you nailed it. The current lack of security in northern baja has indeed "killed the goose that laid the golden egg". Consutruction is slowing or stopping on some Rosarito projecets as sales deposits (used to fund the construction as the ygo along) are drying up. Some slowing is seasonal. When more Mexicans lose their construction/tpurism jobs and more tourist stay away- then maybe Mexico will figure out how to fix their mess-but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting. Until then I don't know how anyone can determine the value of properteis for sale. I would think people with money to play with are more inclined to do stateside foreclosures than baja second homes right now. Take 30% off the price and start from there.

Slowmad - 11-27-2007 at 04:14 PM

"And when the U.S. gets double pnuemonia, Baja gets...?"

In 24 months you might get the keys to a Rosarito condo with each purchase of Bimbo bread.

gnukid - 11-27-2007 at 04:24 PM

Baja could use a tad of realism in real estate pricing. Now just like the US its a great time to buy.

bajajudy - 11-27-2007 at 04:38 PM

Americans arent the only people buying property here. The RE agents here expect a rush of Canadians using their strong dollar to buy up property here.
Quien sabe?

Woooosh - 11-27-2007 at 05:00 PM

They are marketing and selling Rosarito Beach as the "New Cancun". Once Canadians find out it's not 100 degrees with 90 degree water and ancient ruins- they'll head further south where the snowbirds belong.

bajajudy - 11-27-2007 at 05:03 PM

Yea I dont know too much about your area Woooosh.
I was talking about Los Cabos.

Don Alley - 11-27-2007 at 05:10 PM

In Loreto, Mexicans are moving here and buying land as well, and Fonatur is developing a big project for Mexicans here between Centro, Infonavit and the hwy.

I think there's a lot of wishful thinking behind some of the asking prices of property being marketed to gringos, and I would not be surprised if some of those prices come down. But then I think they'll rise again in a couple of years.

Loreto is one of those places where you can fly in, over the bad stuff up north. We just hope the crime here does not get as bad as it is up north.

For now, the market problems up north will hurt some sales on the middle to low end. But the real pricey stuff is immune to all that. I've read that while boat sales are down, sales of BIG yachts is very strong now.

DrTom - 11-27-2007 at 06:20 PM

Theres lots of press on CBC about safety issues in mexico now. It comes and goes....I think sur will be less effected but norte gonna get financially hammered.

fishbuck - 11-27-2007 at 07:23 PM

At my place in SQ a similar lot to mine is advertised at $55000 and I think it is the last waterfront avilable. Two years ago I paid $25000 for each of my lots.
Across the bay at Don Eddies they are selling similar lots for $50000.
So far no price depreciation but who knows!

bajalou - 11-27-2007 at 07:27 PM

I think some building projects - developments - condos etc - might be delayed or stopped with lack of additional funds coming in.

Roberto - 11-27-2007 at 07:49 PM

Don't forget the Mexican business principle:

When business is slow, raise your prices.

So, slowing of business may or may not be an indicator of where prices will go. :lol:

You have to wonder...

djh - 11-27-2007 at 08:35 PM

With all the "boomers" retiring and many tired of snow, shovelling, mowing, and the same old thaaaang..... if Mexico will see the same property sales slow down.

I still see lots of Northern folks looking for a little piece of Loreto. And prices seem to be still going in an upward direction. I don't know about volume right now.... I know a few years ago, when the LBC and Alaska Air boom started, there were more folks wanting to buy than there were properties available and many locals were hanging on, knowing prices were going up significantly. I think there may be a little slowing of volume because some prices are rather startling!!

djh

jimgrms - 11-28-2007 at 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by fishbuck
At my place in SQ a similar lot to mine is advertised at $55000 and I think it is the last waterfront avilable. Two years ago I paid $25000 for each of my lots.
Across the bay at Don Eddies they are selling similar lots for $50000.
So far no price depreciation but who knows! [/quo

Is that asking price or selling price

Russ - 11-28-2007 at 09:29 AM

Here in Punta Chivato lots are going for around $200,000 for waterfront. Actually they're not going but that seems to be the asking price today. With all the PROFEPA problems nothing is moving and construction is really slow because of PROFEPA. At these prices maybe development will slow to a crawl. Newest rumor is that a 4 or 5 story hotel will start construction next month.
Riiiiiight!

conquestkm - 11-28-2007 at 04:45 PM

There is only 20 ocean front lots in San Deigo county.I would not want to guess the prices

Paula - 11-28-2007 at 09:01 PM

Pompano,that looks like one of those North Dakota...er...uh... Montana jokes to me :biggrin:

reefrocket - 11-29-2007 at 06:54 AM

Haven't read all the post on this thread but last night I happened to wander on to http://sfbay.craigslist.org/ then on to Mexico and on to Baja California Sur "properties"

D*%#! People got more money than ..............

Cypress - 11-29-2007 at 07:37 AM

:biggrin:

Thanks Pompano. That's a good one on this rainy Mulege morning. :biggrin:

bearbait1 - 11-29-2007 at 11:06 AM

About the house picture. The plans said to put the poles 200' apart so I puts em 200' apart, what's the problem boss.

Minnow - 11-29-2007 at 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Roberto
Don't forget the Mexican business principle:

When business is slow, raise your prices.

So, slowing of business may or may not be an indicator of where prices will go. :lol:

Mexican Econ.101

I sell 100 tacos a day.
Price of taco is 10 pesos.
I make 1000 pesos a day.

Business is slow. I only sell 50 tacos a day
price of taco is 20 pesos
I make 1000 pesos a day. :lol:

You can apply this to any product you like.

Everyone know the difference between a recession and a Depression?

A recession is when your neighbor looses his job.

A depression is when you loose your job. :lol:

true

gibson - 11-30-2007 at 04:09 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Slowmad
The above thread hijack has been brought to you by Columbia Pictures hilarious new release, "Why Cousins Shouldn't Marry."

that's vegas baby. "par for the course"

Back to topic... there'll be some small 'topes' on the real estate highway (projects are always getting stalled here) but nothing's going in reverse. No-one's catching pnemonia (sp) or a cold just because the north is getting sick! (Even with impending recession of '08). next

gnukid - 11-30-2007 at 07:58 AM

In case anyone is interested, here's the La Paz MLS. There are apparently only about 50 homes for sale and very few if any actual newly constructed homes on the market. It's sold out down here.
La paz mls

[Edited on 11-30-2007 by gnukid]

Nobody is going to clean this house!!

Woooosh - 11-30-2007 at 11:09 AM

Baja Fair Trade Group Expelled from AMPI
Board not re-elected
BY NANCY CONROY

The members of the Baja Fair Trade real estate group have been expelled from the local real estate organization in Rosarito (AMPI) for advocating Baja real estate reform. The group recently announced that they would promote the concepts of Full Disclosure, Escrow, and Title Insurance in order to protect buyers in the Baja marketplace. The announcement was severely criticized by a local group of real estate agents. These individuals accused the group of slander and bad attitudes, and orchestrated their summary expulsion from AMPI. Brian Flock, an expelled Baja Fair Trade member, said “Disclosure clearly hit a nerve within the old guard leadership of the Rosarito associations. I suppose that disclosure was too much of a threat to the bread-and-butter of their businesses.” A week after the affair, AMPI elected a different board of directors.

Baja Fair Trade had presented a proposal to improve consumer protection in the Baja real estate market. Their proposal included a disclosure form that would require all members to disclose known defects in a property to potential buyers. For example, Baja Fair Trade would require members to disclose sewage issues or title litigation. Additionally, Baja Fair Trade argued that agents should advise clients to use Escrow, obtain Title Insurance, legal guidance, a home inspection, and use a professional closing method. Although these measures reflect the ordinary expectations of any buyer, the proposals were treated as heretical by some members of the Rosarito real estate groups.

The brouhaha began when an AMPI member, Ronald Hoff, circulated an email alleging that the group members were “Ugly Americans”, and arguing that “for you to come here and promote yourselves as “experts” who are going to “clean things up” is both laughable and embarrassing”. Hoff asked “who appointed you sheriff?”, and accused the group of associating with the Gringo Gazette.

Then, Willie Bautista, the president of another local real estate organization (APIR), sent a letter to Baja Fair Trade rebuking them for their “bad attitude”. Bautista wrote “You have the attitude that we should change our ways to make our methods of doing business just like in the States. You assert that the Baja Fair Trade group will clean things up and make it safe for the buyer to purchase in Mexico…It is your underlying attitude that needs adjustment. You are new here. You are foreigners. You do not understand the “Mexican way of doing real estate”” Bautista demanded that Baja Fair Trade apologize for their actions, adding that if they did not “we refuse to forgive and forget”.

Baja Fair Trade member Victor Loza, who is one of three Mexican members of the group, wrote that “the message sent is an unfortunate use of a leadership position to multiply the idea that Americans must be silent when in our country”, adding that as a Mexican professional he disagreed with this “bully attitude”. He warned that sending the wrong message would hurt business, saying “imagine how clients will view our association” after they heard about the affair.

In a written statement signed by AMPI leader Gustavo Torres, Loza was prohibited from becoming an AMPI member and told that “this information is to be shared with other local associations”. Members Brian and Ivonne Flock were ordered to immediately apologize, and notified that if they did not, they would be summarily dismissed from AMPI. The Flocks did not apologize, and Torres attempted to physically prevent Flock from leaving the premises with a written copy of the dismissal letter. Flock said “The so-called justice process by the leaders has proven to be a sham.” Baja Fair Trade has posted the letters, emails, and expulsion documents on their website at www.bajafairtrade.com.

This incident is expected to seriously hurt the reputations of both AMPI and APIR. However, a week after the incident, AMPI elected a new board of directors. The new officials have solid real estate credentials and may be able to restore AMPI’s credibility after this affair.

gnukid - 11-30-2007 at 11:58 AM

This is so silly, it illustrates the inability for people to integrate into foreign culture gracefully. Imagine the majority homes in Mexico, hardley one thing is working completely properly through no fault of the owners or agents. Its just that many things that arrive here in Mexico are factory seconds, lesser quality copper, plastic, etc... So everything breaks fast plus the external infrastructure, electrical, water sewage is unreliable so everything suffers at times. It's a shame that the US unloads crap here, everything is faulty, 2nds and lower quality and that angers many people who spend their hard earned dollars to buy something to find that it breaks in about 1-3 weeks. Because the fact the US is dumping seconds here is painfully obvious. Still good Mexican businesses replace the parts at their cost and are covering the loss. Almost every store in La Paz will replace pieces that break quickly. If you ask nicely.

IMHO The president and board here in La Paz its Alonzo Stell and board of the AMPI are good people who have made huge progress working within th system. Could they do more, sure but its better than the robber agents who fail to live up to the current standards set... shall I mention a few? I met with Alonzo this week and have spoken with him regarding many issues associated with homes sales of poorly built houses as my friends and I hope to buy homes, they work with the best intentions and also very high standards-much much higher than average. Full disclosure would be of little benefit and would instead encourage impractical lawsuits which would further cloud the market with no resolution or benefit. This is small issue and I am sure they weren't kicked out so much as asked to go do their own thing if they can't work steadily forward to improve the market in a cooperative manner as AMPI has.

Do your own homework and buy a nice home built to your standards or build your own or accept a different standard which by the way is just fine anyway. A palapa and a few buckets with nothing else is is the best home you can have in mexico because it works. Admittedly I live with 80psi filtered water and conditioned power, etc...

If you want to fix the problems in the house you bought, fix 'em. Bring it to any standard you desire. If you don't, then don't but bring US style lawsuits upon Mexican agencies as a method to resolve a problem caused by US Distributors who have plaugued Baja and Mexico with low quality materials.

There is no reason you shouldn't turn on every faucet, toilet, shower, light and system in the house when you tour to buy. If not its your problem if it doesn't work and you didn't know.

You can replace the entire infrasturcture of a home for about 5-10k so if its such a big imposition then fix it yourself.

Hook - 11-30-2007 at 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by gnukid
In case anyone is interested, here's the La Paz MLS. There are apparently only about 50 homes for sale and very few if any actual newly constructed homes on the market. It's sold out down here.
La paz mls

[Edited on 11-30-2007 by gnukid]

Yes, but this only shows what people are ASKING for their properties. The selling price is where you determine if prices are going up or down.

comitan - 11-30-2007 at 12:13 PM

Gnukid, I think the MLS has only a very small portion of the properties for sale in the La Paz area. Now reading your last post I have to tell you my property is for sale and there is not a Real Estate office in this area that I would list it with. ( the last sentence should be in caps.)

[Edited on 11-30-2007 by comitan]

tigerdog - 12-1-2007 at 01:33 AM

The TJ to Ensenada corridor has been hit hard, partly because of the crime thing and partly because of California's dismal RE market.

I've heard from RE friends in Los Cabos that properties over $1 million are still selling well, but it's slowed significantly for properties under that price. Of course I can't attest personally to that, it's hearsay.

I've also heard from friends in San Felipe that the real estate market there has slowed dramatically, and I know for a fact that across the Sea of Cortez in Puerto Penasco the bottom has fallen out of the market. Several projects will probably not get built at all, and what's already there has died in terms of sales. Of course the condo market there was already glutted, and when you combine that with PP's major market (Arizona) being hit so hard with the real estate crash, well...

It looks like the market in San Carlos, Sonora is slowing, too.

Better start marketing to Canadians and Europeans, because the US economy is in the toilet and it's going to get worse.

On the plus side? A slowdown of the craziness would be good for Baja's environment and those of us who love her the way she is-- warts and all.

rogerj1 - 12-1-2007 at 02:14 AM

Quote:

I supposed they can ask anything they want. What are they actually selling for?

Slowmad - 12-1-2007 at 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by tigerdog
On the plus side? A slowdown of the craziness would be good for Baja's environment and those of us who love her the way she is-- warts and all.

I'll second that emotion.

elgatoloco - 12-2-2007 at 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by conquestkm
There is only 20 ocean front lots in San Deigo county.I would not want to guess the prices

Only 16 available in SD County. They are not cheap.

http://www.sdreader.com/php/cover.php?mode=article&showp...

Smoke - 12-2-2007 at 10:46 PM

Heres my take on values
I wanted a house in Los Barriles.
I bought a lot in Los Barrilles
I built a house on the lot.
The house is nearly done and it will be worth what it cost me to build it, to me, to live in Los Barriles.

yes

gibson - 12-2-2007 at 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Smoke
Heres my take on values
I wanted a house in Los Barriles.
I bought a lot in Los Barrilles
I built a house on the lot.
The house is nearly done and it will be worth what it cost me to build it, to me, to live in Los Barriles.

great post. salut

greybaby - 12-2-2007 at 11:05 PM

Paula - you better make that North Dakota joke !! Couldn't be in Montana since all we knew were North Dakota jokes!!

Woooosh - 12-3-2007 at 10:20 AM

My understanding of the Baja MLS system is that it isn't really a MLS system as we know it in the USA. It's a website that a group of realtors created- they don't have all the local listings, don't share info and don't release any info about actual SALES prices. That's just up here in Rosarito though. The last thing the Mexican realtors in power want is an honest, open, transparent system that American investors could trust.

They like it the way it is- sloppy and corrupt. Hugo Torres (new mayor of Rosarito Beach) is the King of corrupt real estate up here. He's anti drug cartel, but also anti-real estate reform. (He lost his real estate license for manipulating ZMF land for profit while at the same time builds his Condotel addition to the Rosarito Beach Hotel). They (Willie Bautista) say Americans are arrogant to demand real estate reform in their country- yet they sell the properties in Dollars, not Pesos.

gnukid - 12-3-2007 at 10:37 AM

The majority of sales are direct person to person sales in la paz but the mls is used for new construcion, presales of those silly condos etc... The MLS does give some idea of what people are asking. Sucks that the agents want to share 8-10% plus IVA is 10% plus fees so the costs of the sales is expensive.

comitan - 12-3-2007 at 11:38 AM

Sucks is right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :fire:

Why many people avoid agents in MX.

BMG - 12-3-2007 at 10:22 PM

Here are listings for the same house located in La Paz. One agent has the house listed for U$90,000. The other has the same house listed for U$135,000. Of course you have to keep in mind that it only comes with 1 bathroom for $90K and 2 bathrooms for $135K.
:lol:

http://www.doradoproperties.com/San_Pedro.Pacifico.html

http://www.investbajasur.com/lotsdetail.cfm?recordID=77

bajadock - 12-3-2007 at 10:35 PM

Lots of doom and gloom discussion. Rut/herd think. Enough gloom to last through summer. Buy now through '08 for great deals.