BajaNomad

Real Estate: Baja Norte or Sur?

BajaBruceFan - 12-27-2007 at 10:52 AM

Hi all!

My wife and I have been down in Baja for a couple of weeks now looking for homes. We were originally focused on Baja Norte due to the convenience factor of being close to SoCal, but the recent shootup of the Rosarito police station really opened our eyes to the problems here with shootings, kidnappings, and carjackings.

Along with the crime problems, we've noticed that there is clearly an oversupply of housing in the TJ-Ensenada corridor: too many oceanfront home & condo developments on the market, with many, many projects in various states of completion. Tourists are conspicuously absent from the streets, and by all accounts real estate buyers are few & far between. Yet home prices seem to still be quite inflated - sellers don't seem to have yet realized that this is a cooling market.

Is the Baja Norte real estate market in for a big correction/crash? Is crime up here as bad as it seems from reading internet horror stories?

Is the situation down south any better re crime and real estate market saturation?

We are considering another trip to Baja next month to look at properties in Todos Santos. The homes seem to be a better value & it seems to be the sort of community that we could be a part of rather than just a couple of gringos holed up in an oceanfront condo.

Just curious about peoples thoughts on this...

Thanks,
CJ

Roberto - 12-27-2007 at 10:55 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by BajaBruceFan
Is the Baja Norte real estate market in for a big correction/crash?


Hard to say. One would think so, but don't forget that Mexico is the country where, when business is down, prices go up to make for the shortfall! :o:o

Al G - 12-27-2007 at 11:35 AM

BajaBruceFan
I do not believe anyone can answer that question.
IMHO...TJ to Ensenada is a hell hole...sure it is sporadic violence and if you obey all warnings, it is not likely you will be targeted except by the cops...they are going to harass you no matter what...they feel it is the right of the Mexicans and the law of the land. This you will encounter in all of Baja...if you are robbed or assaulted, you have no rights period...no investigation...no help. In Baja Sur people have caught and held robbers and the Policea would have nothing to do with it.
There is only one thing for sure...it will get worse before it gets better...if it ever does.
If you have what it takes to risk everything you own and risk your life and your family's life, then you are suited for Baja.
As a old single man, it is about all that I have thought about...if I should live there or not. If something does happen...I will be a victim at least twice...once by the crook and then by the cops...Not sure I can handle that. Price this in to the cost of a home:no:
IMO the prices are so inflated you would be a fool to risk your money...and if they fall (prices)can you handle being a person with no rights:no::no::no:.

fishbuck - 12-27-2007 at 11:40 AM

Well, this is apples and oranges for sure.
Todo Santos is much more preferble to Rosarito.
But the issue will surely be access. Are you planning to retire? Or just have a place to visit.
Norte has some good spots but I don't like anything north of Ensenada. Don't even bother to stop before there. Still only 4-6 hours from the border by car.
Todo Santos is probably 4-6 hour from the border... by jet. If you intend to drive give it 2-3 days. I would say 3. 2 if you are suicidal.
As for prices. I think I've observed the beginning of the price decline but I think it will take a little longer(1 year?) before it really starts to take hold.
Your second home yuppies are going to start to feel the pinch in the good ole USA and will likely need to dump the Baja dream home(or lot) to keep their heavily financed life afloat. So be patient and do your homework and you might find a good deal in baja in the next couple of years.
The couple of posts I've seen on this board recently don't seem to be grounded in reality just yet.
That is ofcourse unless you want to pay $999,999.50 for my waterfront lots in SQ. I'll even throw in the maritime zone for free ;)

Al G - 12-27-2007 at 12:05 PM

Check out the Baja western onion in Todos Santos...
http://www.bajawesternonion.com/
Check the back issues on the robberies there:wow:
You will not be able to get away from it soon...:fire:
Think of it as Las Vagas...what you take there you will lose...you can enjoy the time there that way...:lol:

livencabo - 12-27-2007 at 12:26 PM

I lived in Todos Santos 1993 to 1999 and 2000 to present in San Jose del Cabo. I think it is a good idea to rent while you make all the adjustments to living in Baja. Only your own experience will answer if the move is right for you.
There are many parts yet to develop which you can explore and "discover" and find not only prices which are not ridiculous but also people who are still friendly with newcomers.
Keep in mind that as you grow older, your circumstances will change. Do not burn your bridges or expect that speculation in real estate will permit you to sell and return to the US.
I have enjoyed life in Baja because I always loved the land.

BajaBruceFan - 12-27-2007 at 12:41 PM

Thanks so much for the responses so far. We live in Canada, but have a business that allows us some flexibility - we are looking for somewhere that we could spend about 6 months a year when the weather is awful up north. Eventually we would like to retire there.

Right now the Canadian $ is almost at par with the US $ - a situation that is likely temporary. So for us this may be a once in a lifetime property to purchase foreign property. A $300K property would have cost us over $400K just a year ago, so we're feeling some pressure to act sooner rather than later.

fishbuck - 12-27-2007 at 01:14 PM

Do you know the Bajagypies? They're from Canada.:)
Baja is getting all Canadianized
Canada must really suck.
Ha,ha only teasing.
Ya, I can see your urgency but don't worry because I think we are going to run the US into the ground for a couple more years anyway. They are starting to predict recession here so you Canadians will probably be able to buy the US and Baja for a good price.
If Todos is your target I'd say jump on a jet, fly to San Jose, rent a car, stay in Todos, start picking up leads for properties, drive to them, check them out. Make a portfolio of all the different places you looked at. Go back to Canada, freeze your *** off. Dream about Baja. A good deal will present itself eventually. Buy it. See, simple.

comitan - 12-27-2007 at 01:46 PM

SUR11111111111111

vandenberg - 12-27-2007 at 02:34 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by fishbuck
Do you know the Bajagypies? They're from Canada.:)
Baja is getting all Canadianized
Canada must really suck.
Ha,ha only teasing.
Ya, I can see your urgency but don't worry because I think we are going to run the US into the ground for a couple more years anyway. They are starting to predict recession here so you Canadians will probably be able to buy the US and Baja for a good price.
If Todos is your target I'd say jump on a jet, fly to San Jose, rent a car, stay in Todos, start picking up leads for properties, drive to them, check them out. Make a portfolio of all the different places you looked at. Go back to Canada, freeze your *** off. Dream about Baja. A good deal will present itself eventually. Buy it. See, simple.


Fishbuck.
Love your attitude. I'm also afraid that your, tongue in cheek, predictions have a tremendous chance of coming true.
For Canadians the time to buy would be within the next 2 years, as their dollar parity will only last till we get "W" out of there. IMHO of course. Lived in Canada when their dollar was 10% higher than the greenback. Then too, it only lasted for a short while. That was close to 50 years ago. Where the hell did the time go :?::?::(:(

Skeet/Loreto - 12-27-2007 at 02:42 PM

Baja Bruce:
To Properly answer your Question it would be necesary to know your Living Style.

In Baja Norte I would start at Parrell 28, Guerrero Negro is and Ideal Spot if you like Cooler Weather.
San Ignaicio would be a great Place if you like some Privacy.
Mulege would be a great place due to its size, location and People.

Cuidad Constitution is a good place with about 35,000 People and most of the time has goods and services and is fairly close to the Pacific. Very Good Medical .

If I was to return to Baja I would choose La Paz over all other locations. A very good city with some good buys and locations and all Services needed .including Good Medical;

You could always go onto the Mountain areas, San Ysidro, Commundo.
If you like Town living then I would strongly suggest that you spend some time in La Paz.

Skeet/Loreto
38 years in Baja Sur.

shari - 12-27-2007 at 06:29 PM

keep in mind that in the smaller villages prices are much better....an amigo here wants to sell his 3 bedroom wood house...indoor plumbing, electricity etc....for $12,000....OK so it's not waterfront but a great price and anywhere in this village the beach is only a few blocks away...like 3-4. It doesn't have to be expensive.....another amigo in San Hipolito is selling his quite nice home...3 bedroom too and on the water...$10,000.....awesome deal too just in a small village with no stores....it's 45 minutes from here where everyone shops. Gypsies just bought a nice lot here for very cheap too and will build a little place.

fishbuck - 12-27-2007 at 07:30 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by shari
keep in mind that in the smaller villages prices are much better....an amigo here wants to sell his 3 bedroom wood house...indoor plumbing, electricity etc....for $12,000....OK so it's not waterfront but a great price and anywhere in this village the beach is only a few blocks away...like 3-4. It doesn't have to be expensive.....another amigo in San Hipolito is selling his quite nice home...3 bedroom too and on the water...$10,000.....awesome deal too just in a small village with no stores....it's 45 minutes from here where everyone shops. Gypsies just bought a nice lot here for very cheap too and will build a little place.


Hey, quit trying to sell my San Hipo beach house! Just kidding. I'm not sure I can swing it right now.
It might take a little lifestyle adjustment to live out there. But I sure did like San Roque and thought I could get use to it. Part time anyway.
Any waterfront lot availible in San Hipo? How about San Roque?

[Edited on 12-28-2007 by fishbuck]

Leo - 12-27-2007 at 08:48 PM

BB Fan, You are in the position I was in about 6-7 years ago. Diffence only I paid with a 63 ct.Canadian dollar unfort.
But the main idea is, If you come for weather and plan for 6 months like we do, Northern Baja is out. Besides the crime etc. Because there is a big difference (for the better) here in the south.
You rent for a month, like we did in Loretto, Mulehage, San Jose and La PAz and last but not least Todos Santos. This takes care of your first 'snow bird' year. Next winter you line up 2 or 3 places you want to compare once more, and i tell you, the magic from Todos Santos will get you back here sooner or later. We went here 3 times before we bought, but knew this was the right choice. You get an inner feeling, a unexplainabe draw back to the right place.
Good luck, and if you are afraid of the dollar dropping, change a few hundred thousend.

Smoke - 12-27-2007 at 08:51 PM

wow, you guys wana keep Baja to yourselves pretty bad, or the glass isn't even half empty,its dry.
I like it in Los Barriles Bajabrucefan. Not cheap but great people both gringos and locals.

Just thinking as I read these posts

Baja Bernie - 12-28-2007 at 06:04 AM

Baja is really what YOU bring to it.............All of it!

Shari tell me a little more about your speck of Paradise.....including travel times. Just might wish to visit after the New Year.

shari - 12-28-2007 at 07:30 AM

We would be honoured by your presence Bernie...one of the nice things about here is it's a closer drive from California. Bajaboy and gypsies and other amigos do it in a day...we are about 12 hours from the border so it's a long day but worth it! It is cool here in winter...not tropical...but lovely and quiet...very safe...gorgeous. We look forward to meeting you. Oh Fishbuck...all San Roque and San Hipolito is waterfront!

DrTom - 12-28-2007 at 11:22 AM

There are some pretty cranky viewpoints here, but i see them up here too. Originally from Orange county, i moved to vancouver because i like the ocean and less population. But canada is rough duty 24/7. I have been going to cabo for 10 yrs pretty consistently spending about 6 weeks a year and will be there half time in winter and vancouver half time. From a real estate perspective, canada is strong currently, and if you want to speculate buy in arizona, but no ocean for me so thats out. From my experience being raised in laguna beach and going to rosarito to surf often, i never liked norte....but i find the vibe in cabo is much like it was in laguna as i was growing up. Im used to being an immigrant, as an american in canada so i get the whole "not a citizen deal" In my obviously naive opinion, half time canada, half time sur is the way to go, but then i need a place i can surf, fish and be near the beach most the time. BTW i made the baja decision after a trip to hawaii.....You want no good real estate go to hawaii.....and if you think the gringo vibe in baja is bad, try the howlie vibe in the islands......YIKES! Waddya expect, the mexicans to paddle out in dugouts and put leis around our necks for the priviledge of being the recipients of our attitude?

Skeet/Loreto - 12-29-2007 at 07:42 AM

Baja BruceFan:

After you Wade through all the "Opinions" , may I suggest some "Factual Information" theat may help you When and If you decide to buy in Baja Sur..First: Learn as much Spanish as possible, primerly Slang/Field Spanish.

Second: Start with a Trusted Notoria:

Third; Make sure the Notoria does a Title Search through the Supreme Court Clerk.

Fourth: "Never, Never, buy Ejido Property"!!

Skeet/Loreto

Add about a thousand NEVERS to the comment on Ejido land

Baja Bernie - 12-29-2007 at 07:48 AM

David K - 12-29-2007 at 08:02 AM

Bernie, spend a night at Baja Cactus then have breakfast at Mama's or Baja's Best... then drive to Asuncion. It's almost all paved... the final 10-20 miles are good graded dirt. Top off at El Rosario and again at Vizcaino where the highway to Asuncion/ Tortugas joins Mex. 1.

From last July:

VIZCAINO PENINSULA ROAD LOG
Some notes collected on the drive out to Asuncion...

0.0 (0 hrs.) Vizcaino on Hwy. 1. Go west on Bahia Tortugas highway

11.4 Rancho San Francisquito road

46.6 (45 min.) Bahia Asuncion JCN. (turn south/ left). Graded dirt road west/ straight to Tortugas.

Road left is newly paved towards Asuncion, traffic is detoured onto parallel dirt road.

54.0 End of new black top, work continues.

73.3 (1 hr. 45 min.) after passing through the town of Asuncion, we arrive at the Blowhole Bed & Breakfast (Juan & Shari's home).



[Edited on 12-29-2007 by David K]