I too found the article interesting. I have traveled much of Mexico for 30 years and have seen many positive changes.Pebbles - 4-27-2008 at 10:18 AM
This article is very encouraging.
The interview with Montiel identifies two key ingredients in the recipe for Mexico's success; education and entrepreneurs. Montiel went to college
and gained the skills and confidence to start a business.
I have done business in both Mexico and Asia for 30 years and seen U.S. business shift its investments out of Mexico to Asia. While unfortunate for
Mexico, the U.S. cannot abandon its focus on free trade and global competitiveness.
All regional trade advantages are temporary and I am confident the U.S. will soon again see the benefits of strong regional economies and begin to
increase its investments in Mexico. That is the other key ingredient for Mexico's success.
A side note. This is my first post. I have been reading BajaNomad for years. I have recently retired and bought a second home in Loreto. I will be
moving there in May and look forward to being a Nomad on the ground in Baja.sylens - 4-27-2008 at 05:18 PM
from one "llife is good " believer to another,
welcome to nomadlandia. there are some scary rides, but mostly they're safe. look forward to hearing more from you, particularly in regard to
asia/mexico compare, contrast.DENNIS - 4-27-2008 at 05:59 PM
Nice to see you here, Pebbles.BajaBruno - 4-27-2008 at 10:24 PM
I would like to be optimistic about Mexico's economy in the near term, but I am not. Mexico, as the rest of the world, has ridden on the coattails of
the US cheap credit bubble and that bubble has burst.
Mexico is heavily dependant on exports of auto-related products and consumer electronics, two categories that have taken a sharp dip in the last year.
2008 is projected to be much the same and it is likely that the US economy will not improve dramatically for several years. New car sales, save for
hybrids, have been abysmal, and consumer electronics sales have been flat to bad.
Oil and dope are really the only stand-outs in the current Mexican economy, and Mexican oil production is slumping quickly as their wells dry and no
new wells are taking their place.
Mexican tourism revenue is reported to be off as much as 40% in some locations, reflecting the dire economy in the US. While I don't have immediate
data on remittances, I will guess that they are much lower, since many of the well-paying US jobs like construction have dried up and employers are
being slightly more careful about illegal hiring.
So, the rosy picture portrayed in Mexico of the last five years of the US boom may be fading as their biggest trading partner suffers the hangover
from unrelenting debit spending. I wish the best for Mexico, but when the biggest economy in the world goes into recession, with the #2 economy not
far behind, then the rest of the world will invariably suffer.Iflyfish - 4-28-2008 at 01:17 AM
Welcome Pebbles
I know from my travels in Mexico over the past forty years that Mexico and Mexicans appear to be better fed, clothed and more prosperous in general.
That of course is not a scientific study but an observation from someone who has been there a lot over a lot of years.
Mexican remittances are way down according to an Oregonian article I read. Harder to cross the border so more are staying home and less money
returning.
I think that you can add fear to the equasion of why tourism is down. Lots of bad press in the US about crime in Mexico and that on top of the fact
that the USofA has still not gotten over 911 and politicians are thumping that tub.
