BajaNomad

weather forecasts?

BMG - 3-13-2008 at 12:40 PM

What's with the weather guessers?

I was looking at the Underground Weather website and saw the following forecast for La Paz this next Monday: Clear 62° F | 57° F. Seemed a might chilly for the high temp.

Next I checked CNN Weather: Mon 3/17: Sunny 74° | 47° . The high temp is more in line, but what about that low?

Weather Channel: Partly Cloudy 77°/51°.

BBC Weather (the Brits know everything about weather): Sunny 69F - 57F.

So can I assume that the high will be somewhere between 62 and 77 and the low between 47 and 57? I'm ruling out any chance of snow but will keep the parka handy in case it's needed.

Pescador - 3-13-2008 at 03:24 PM

Do you ever get the feeling that we are in a third world country? I subscribe to Bouyweather and cross reference it with San Diego weather, weatherunderground. and still the most consistent weather report is to check the conditions when I get up in the morning.
However, there have been a couple of days that were predicted by Bouyweather and Weatherunderground and they hit it almost to the minute of when the blow was going to start. Those naysayers who figured that the report was so much hooeee, got caught out for 2 1/2 days before they could cross the channel.

rob - 3-13-2008 at 03:39 PM

BMG is right - average them!

We show a low of 36F this month (almost unheard of here on the Pacific Coast west of La Paz!!), and a high of 81F. It's been a very cool Feb and March so far with dense fog - usually we only get that in May/June

I would like to draw your attention to our new weather station (Wunderground) - couple of teething problems but its OK.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.as...

Hook - 3-13-2008 at 05:42 PM

Cool, Rob!

What's your guess as to the water temp right now?

roundtuit - 3-13-2008 at 05:44 PM

63 degree in Mulege

low of 49

pacificobob - 3-14-2008 at 09:30 AM

several mornings that cold within the last few weeks here in el pescadero

Mexitron - 3-14-2008 at 09:35 AM

WeatherUnderground is consistently good out here in Tejas...only hangup with them is that they may use nearby locations for a weather report: When I'm trying to find the temp in Fort Garland, CO they give me the data from a site to the east 4,000 feet heigher in elevation!

rob - 3-14-2008 at 09:46 AM

Hook - my built-in sensors refuse to go near the water at the moment - it's COLD . . . I need to buy a decent thermometer for sea temp measurements.

When we agreed to share everything, Linda did not include the bread-making thermometer.

Hook - 3-14-2008 at 09:53 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Mexitron
WeatherUnderground is consistently good out here in Tejas...only hangup with them is that they may use nearby locations for a weather report: When I'm trying to find the temp in Fort Garland, CO they give me the data from a site to the east 4,000 feet heigher in elevation!


Mexitron, have you scrolled down to the bottom of the page and searched for any PWSs that might be closer? If there are, click on one and it should give you a Google map of ones in your area.

Mexitron - 3-14-2008 at 10:56 AM

Thanks Hook--I'll check that out.

Pescador - 3-14-2008 at 03:07 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Mexitron
WeatherUnderground is consistently good out here in Tejas...only hangup with them is that they may use nearby locations for a weather report: When I'm trying to find the temp in Fort Garland, CO they give me the data from a site to the east 4,000 feet heigher in elevation!


Holy cow I'll bet you are one of two people in the whole world who care what anything is in Fort Garland, Co. I went to school in Alamosa and Ft. Garland was nothing but a blip on the radar screen. Bet you have a place on the Blanca Trinchera then.

Cervisin - 3-14-2008 at 07:39 PM

Here you find 4 WeatherUnderground feeds with 5 day forecast

Baja Weather

BMG - 3-14-2008 at 08:38 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Cervisin
Here you find 4 WeatherUnderground feeds with 5 day forecast

Baja Weather


Weather Underground is the one I'm really having issues with recently. They are no where near to close.

Here is the weather forecast for today:

Friday

Clear. High: 75° F. / 24° C. Wind WSW 6 mph. / 10 km/h.


Here is what it actually was today:

1:44 PM 95.0 °F / 35.0 °C Wind WSW 13.8 mph

The Weather Underground was 20°F off today and have been consistently wrong for quite some time now. Does anyone believe that the high for Monday is only going to be 62°F
in La Paz? If you do, I'd like to sell you some shares in that toll bridge to Mogote.

[Edited on 3-15-2008 by BMG]

Mexitron - 3-15-2008 at 09:50 AM

BMG--I think their Mex forecasts aren't so good...

Pescador--that's cool you went to school in Alamosa! I have a few acres in the foothills around Blanca and am always checking on the weather there to see what kind of dwelling we may or may not build someday...it may just end up being a camping spot in the late spring--what's your thoughts on the weather there if you all don't mind me hijacking this thread.

rob - 3-15-2008 at 09:52 AM

Hi BMG - I notified Wunderground of your findings, and hope they will respond. I also found the following description of their system - you will probably disagree . ..

"International Forecasts

We use a cutting edge proprietary forecasting system that analyses historical weather data and past model performance to achieve the best possible forecasts for locations around the globe. The system is named 'Best Forecast' and we believe that it lives up to its name!"

rob

Cervisin - 3-15-2008 at 11:20 AM

BMG: I understand that all the weather data is collected by different small weather stations - in the case of La Paz I think it is at the airport area.

Now the conditions might be different at that particular area as in general.....

Plus imagine the time delay in them publish or make it available by feed.
Weather Underground, as least as I use it, is a free service so I assume
one has to live with it or get a paid subscription of a weather forecast provider.

How accurate they are?? No idea, part they take data of the existing weather stations.....

BMG - 3-15-2008 at 12:46 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Cervisin
BMG: I understand that all the weather data is collected by different small weather stations - in the case of La Paz I think it is at the airport area.

Now the conditions might be different at that particular area as in general.....



On the link you have on your website, it is predicting a high of 73°F today. At 11:41AM the temp was 84°F at the airport. All the measurements are made out at the airport and the forecast is supposedly for the airport. Not even noon yet and the temp is already 11°F warmer than the predicted high.
Quote:
Originally posted by Cervisin

How accurate they are??



Not at all accurate, especially recently. That's my point.
Quote:
Originally posted by rob

I notified Wunderground of your findings, and hope they will respond.



I asked them a couple of weeks ago. Still waiting.
Quote:
Originally posted by rob

"International Forecasts

We use a cutting edge proprietary forecasting system that analyses historical weather data and past model performance to achieve the best possible forecasts for locations around the globe. The system is named 'Best Forecast' and we believe that it lives up to its name!"



This sounds like some of the political rhetoric. No need to worry about the truth or accuracy, just say it's so.
Quote:
Originally posted by Mexitron

I think their Mex forecasts aren't so good...



The 'art' of understatement!:lol:

Pescador - 3-15-2008 at 01:55 PM

Quote:
Pescador--that's cool you went to school in Alamosa! I have a few acres in the foothills around Blanca and am always checking on the weather there to see what kind of dwelling we may or may not build someday...it may just end up being a camping spot in the late spring--what's your thoughts on the weather there if you all don't mind me hijacking this thread.


I never knew anything as cold as Alamosa in the winter, with 30 - 50 mph winds and temps around 5 - 10 below zero, and I had to walk to school from across the bridge clear to campus. Summers are beautiful with highs around 80 and cool nights. I absolutely love the San Luis Valley and still go back summers to visit some close friends.

BMG - 3-15-2008 at 08:05 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Cervisin

Weather Underground, as least as I use it, is a free service so I assume one has to live with it or get a paid subscription of a weather forecast provider.

How accurate they are?? No idea, part they take data of the existing weather stations.....


Free? I think I could forcast the weather with more accuracy than them and my rates are only slightly more than free.:lol:

Weather Underground for prediction for Saturday:

Clear. High: 73° F. / 23° C. Wind SSW 6 mph. / 10 km/h.

Actual:

1:44 PM 93.2 °F / 34.0 °C Calm Clear

They were off by 20° again today. My original question that I started this thread with still stands: What's with the weather guessers?

I wonder what the weather guessers forecast the night this photo was taken?

untitled.jpg - 28kB

rob - 3-16-2008 at 08:28 AM

BMG - I subscribed to Buoyweather.com (and still do with their 3-month plan - in Aug/Sep/Oct) because their forecasts are so accurate. Their hurricane predictions are excellent.

They still give a free 2 day forecast (wind/wave ). CNA isn't bad either

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/

rob

Don Alley - 3-16-2008 at 04:50 PM

Weather Underground has been consistently low in its temperature forecasts.

I believe all of the stations use the same data from the Loreto Airport; I think they used to get their data from a station across from Arturo's (Mercado Davis Rubio).

My guess is that there is no local or regional weather forecaster, rather various services use different computer forecasting programs, and apparently WeatherUnderground is posting those results without any human (and common sense) intervention.

For wind and water conditions, I use BuoyWeather and Weather.com first, then weatherunderground.com.