Members of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PDR) staged a protest against reform legislation introduced by President Felipe Calderon that would
give Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) the ability to let upstream service contracts to outside oil companies. PDR worries that Calderon is privatizing
PEMEX, Mexico's national oil company and sole operator. Mexico nationalized its oil industry in 1938, a move which remains a source of great pride to
its citizens.
Mexico's future oil production hangs in the balance. Output peaked in 2004 because Cantarell, the mainstay producer, is now in irrevocable decline.
PEMEX does not have the resources to carry out exploration and production in its share of the Gulf of Mexico deepwater or significantly expand
production in the difficult Chicontepec field. Without reform of the upstream rules, which would allow PEMEX to contract out development in untapped
areas, Mexico's oil production and exports are expected to steadily decline over the next decade.
Calderon's government has also proposed plans to boost Mexico's refining capacity, a measure which would further erode exports to the United States.
Mexico currently exports its heavy Maya crude for refining in the United States and then imports the finished products to meet its own increasing
demand. Like the upstream reform proposal, the refinery expansion would allow private firms to build and operate Mexican oil refineries for a fee in
addition to opening the oil pipeline, storage and transport businesses to private capital. The PDR also opposes opening up Mexico's downstream
industry.
It may be a case of "too little, too late" regardless of the fate of the oil reforms. Perhaps a decade would be required before Mexico would see
significant new production from the deepwater Gulf.
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