BajaNomad - should i trade dollars for pesos now??

should i trade dollars for pesos now??

flyfishinPam - 8-2-2008 at 07:25 AM

wondering what thoughts are out there on this.

i just traded dollars for pesos this morning and the rate was 9,880
yesterday the pemex traded 9,5 to 1 dollar

the dollar is going down against the peso

pretty much all of my expenses are in pesos.

should i trade a lot of dollars right now or what? i'm no financial expert but don't want to see all my hard work from this summer go to crap if the dollar takes a dive.

gracias for your input.
:coolup:

Bajaboy - 8-2-2008 at 07:35 AM

I suppose it depends on your time horizon. The dollar will come back especially with a new administration in the White House. It will take some pain and suffering before the dollar becomes strong, though. Well, that's my opinion.

Zac

DENNIS - 8-2-2008 at 07:45 AM

It's a bad time to speculate. Just go day to day and stay away from the cambios. They seem to charge two percent for peso buying transactions and more for peso selling.

Bruce R Leech - 8-2-2008 at 07:57 AM

It's always a good time to speculate. just know what you are doing. the Peso is controlled by a select few in Mexico and many have access to the info of what it is going to do next. imagine if you new what the rate would be in one week and had a lot of money to play with, you would be a wealthy person or at least well off. it happens every day in Mexico on large and small scales. you Win if it goes up and you win if it goes down. :light:

flyfishinPam - 8-2-2008 at 08:00 AM

well was just in front f the computer and going back on the run again.

i'm gonna watch it close this week and try to factor our upcoming expenses through late january. i'll convert all that to pesos. i know impoprted goods from the usa will stay pretty much in line with the peso but those paying in dollars will take a hit.

we do it through the bank never the caas de cambios. some folks that came in on the LAX flight on thursday said they were exchanging the peso at 9 to 1 at the casa de cambio in the airport. yikes, that's already a 10% loss for us!

bancoduo - 8-2-2008 at 08:04 AM

The peso is waaaaay overvalued. I'm with DENNIS.

Bajajorge - 8-2-2008 at 08:12 AM

When traveling back to Baja I make sure I have at least 1000 pesos for the trip. I also travel with US, but make sure I only have small bills, no larger than 20s. Never know when you will need the mordida.

When in Baja I only deal in pesos, but when I walk into a place that is still dealing 11 to 1, I pay in US.

DENNIS - 8-2-2008 at 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajajorge
When traveling back to Baja I make sure I have at least 1000 pesos for the trip.

I remember when that was a comfortable amount to carry but, today that's dinner and gas not to mention a mere downpayment on the mordida scale. Maybe you should pump up the kitty, Jorge....just to be sure.

Bruce R Leech - 8-2-2008 at 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajajorge
When traveling back to Baja I make sure I have at least 1000 pesos for the trip. I also travel with US, but make sure I only have small bills, no larger than 20s. Never know when you will need the mordida.

When in Baja I only deal in pesos, but when I walk into a place that is still dealing 11 to 1, I pay in US.

tell us where this 11 to 1 place is

bajaguy - 8-2-2008 at 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajajorge
........I also travel with US, but make sure I only have small bills, no larger than 20s. Never know when you will need the mordida.

........

Shame on you, George!!!!!!.....you know better than to pay mordita.........use your "gold card" instead :lol:

maspacifico - 8-2-2008 at 09:11 AM

I'm in the same boat but not sure whether buying lots of pesos is ever a good idea. Yen or Euros should hold up better, but thats pretty hard to use in Loreto! As long as the US government keeps bailing everyone out, and playing world policeman, our dollar will just keep falling, and neither the Republicans or Democrats will do what it takes to make it right without really taking a stand.....and if they take a stand, they won't get elected. I read somewhere that each US family owes $500,000 to the national debt right now. Short term bandages for big problems just delaying the inevitable. The way concrete and rebar are going up, maybe put your money into those!

bajaguy - 8-2-2008 at 09:18 AM

No worries.......I just stick my card into an ATM and out pops pesos. I live it up when it's anything over 10:1 and drink more Pacifico when it's anything below 10:1

oxxo - 8-2-2008 at 09:46 AM

Since I live full time in Baja, and all my income comes from the US in dollars, I watch the exchange rate carefully. I have seen my cost of living in Mexico increase by over 10% in the last year as the result of the falling dollar....and that doesn't even factor in inflation within the Mexican economy.

However, I have not hit the panic button yet. The dollar will come back eventually, but it may not have bottomed out yet either. Therefore, caution is advised in making speculative long term committments with expendable dollar income.

Exchanging pesos into dollars on a regular basis, just enough for 2 week expenses or one month of expenses, for example, is a financial strategy called "dollar cost averaging." It evens out your loses over the long term if the dollar is falling. Conversely, it evens out your gains if the dollar is increasing in value. It is a financially conservative approach to income and money management. I am generally financially conservative by nature, although I do speculate in various investments from time to time.

I do not favor exchanging a bunch of dollars into pesos at this time, specualting on what the future might hold. That is similar to being a day trader in the futures market in the NY Stock Exchange - very risky and the potential road to ruin......unless you are an insider.

Here is what I see in my crystal ball. I think the dollar may continue to fall perhaps to the mid 9's, at the official rate, over the next couple of months. After the US Presidential elections - whether Rep or Dem victory - the dollar will bounce back to above 10, maybe as high as 10.5 (on the higher side with a Dem victory). Then as reality sets in and we see the same old crap from the politicians from both parties, then the dollar will fall again to around 10 or high 9's (where it is now). I think it will stabilize there for maybe 2 years and then gradually rise again to the levels we experienced last year. We will then be able to see what has been accomplished by the new administration in Washington and adjust the projections accordingly at that time.

I will continue to change dollars into pesos about every two weeks during this future period if my scenario holds true. I may purchase some short term CD's at Boncomer (an international bank) with dollar accounts that are currently paying about 6% with a 60 day maturity.

Disclaimer: I have no insider information. Everyone should do whatever they feel is prudent for themselves. What works for me may not necessarily work for you. I do have some credentials, education, background, and experience in this area but that does not necessarily make me more qualified to speak with authority on this subject than anyone else. Caveat Emptor!

!Suerte!

maspacifico - 8-2-2008 at 09:58 AM

oxxo,
Much better advice than mine, though I still think concrete is a "buy". I hope you are right about a two year comeback for the dollar but I think the financial bailouts are going to bury us. My numbers about the national debt were inflated. A family of 4 "only" owes $120,000. My $500,000 number came from total debt in the US per family of four.........since I read that, it has gone up to $700,000.

oxxo - 8-2-2008 at 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by maspacifico
As long as the US government keeps bailing everyone out,

Quite true, for example Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. What is wrong with this picture: Investors in Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae have earned a return on their investment in the past, yet when those same investors are faced with current losses the governement bails them out! So, an investment with returns and no losses guaranteed by the governement. SWEEEEEET!

Quote:

and playing world policeman

I wonder if each US citizen were told that US military intervention would cost them $1,000 per month each - man, woman, child - I wonder how long those various military interventions would last.

Quote:

neither the Republicans or Democrats will do what it takes to make it right without really taking a stand

Actually, the Clinton administration did leave the Bush administration with a balanced budget. Unfortunately, Bush will not be doing the same for the administration that follows.

I guarantee you that I hate paying taxes more than anyone else on this Board....and I pay a lot. However, the only way to get the US back on sound financial footing is massive tax increases in the future or massive cuts in programs like the military and social services (including freezing SocSec increases and I do receive SocSec.). I favor a strategy with a little of both - some tax increases with some cuts in programs. Which presidential candidate has the cajones to do that?.....perhaps neither!

Bruce R Leech - 8-2-2008 at 11:25 AM

Clinton...... :spingrin:

I did not have sixxual relations with that woman :lol:

[Edited on 8-2-2008 by Bruce R Leech]

oxxo - 8-2-2008 at 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
Clinton...... :spingrin:

I did not have sixxual relations with that woman

Bush.....Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq :spingrin:

.......4000 plus US military dead :fire:

Clinton and Bush both made lieing, reprehensible statements. Which did the most harm? :light:

elizabeth - 8-2-2008 at 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by oxxo

Quote:

Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
Clinton...... :spingrin:

I did not have sixxual relations with that woman

Bush.....Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq :spingrin:

.......4000 plus US military dead :fire:

Clinton and Bush both made lieing, reprehensible statements. Which did the most harm? :light:

That was just a rhetorical question, right?!!

I do have a question about your financial strategies. Why the Bancomer cd's in dollar accounts...and not some in peso accounts? I am seriously clueless about investing...and I need to start getting some clues should I desire a future!

edited for spelling

[Edited on 8-2-2008 by elizabeth]

maspacifico - 8-2-2008 at 11:49 AM

Bruce,

That will always stick with Slick Willy, and I was peeed off when he lied about it...........but in retrospect what did it really cost you and I other than the impeachment fiasco? Take a look at our deficit counter and tell me which lie you want to be told. No head from a chubby girl.......or WMD? And, I believed Bush!

http://www.deficitsdomatter.org/

Cypress - 8-2-2008 at 12:09 PM

Political affiliations and religious affiliations are based on some sort of wierd inner brain wiring that defies understanding.

Some folks handle snakes and some folks believe whatever the last news anchor told 'em. :yes:

The common denominator is "snakes". :tumble:

maspacifico - 8-2-2008 at 12:12 PM

Yea Cypress,
BUT, these are "our" snakes! Where is the antivenom?

mikeintj - 8-2-2008 at 12:18 PM

You cannot predict changes to exchange rates.

The idea that you can predict what the exchange rate will be in X months time is one of the most tested theories in economics, maybe the most tested theory. It has been rejected by almost all economists.

Therefore, the best forecast for the exchange rate in X months time is the current exchange rate.

So forget trying to make a bundle on exchange rates, and quit worrying about what to do with your pesos/dollars on the basis of what may happen to the exchange rate in the future. Base all your decisions on the current exchange rate.

Bruce R Leech - 8-2-2008 at 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by maspacifico
Bruce,

That will always stick with Slick Willy, and I was peeed off when he lied about it...........but in retrospect what did it really cost you and I other than the impeachment fiasco? Take a look at our deficit counter and tell me which lie you want to be told. No head from a chubby girl.......or WMD? And, I believed Bush!

http://www.deficitsdomatter.org/

unfortunately they are all a bunch of lier's including the 2 that are running this year. it is just a shame that the job cant draw a person that has true integrity. and that goes for most politicians in the world today.

oxxo - 8-2-2008 at 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by elizabeth
Why the Bancomer cd's in dollar accounts...and not some in peso accounts?

Sorry Elizabeth, I was a bit imprecise. I should have said convert dollars into peso accounts paying about 6%.

Bancomer (a Spanish chartered bank) is seriously going after the US expatriot population in Mexico with their "Preferred Customer" program. They have special branches with English speaking staff in selected locations in Baja (Los Cabos in particular) and throughout Mexico. They have online banking in English and deposits are guaranteed to a certain amount. It might be worth a trip to Los Cabos to set up an account even if you live in the boonies of Baja. Then you could deposit, transfer funds, everything online.

At this time Bancomer is "bullish" on the American market. Their staff has told me that that their analysts predict that the dollar will come back strong relative to the Mexican peso in 2 to 3 years.

Cypress - 8-2-2008 at 12:49 PM

maspacifico, Our snakes? :?:

Antivenom? Term limits. Term limits. And more term limits :bounce:

elizabeth - 8-2-2008 at 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by oxxo

Quote:

Originally posted by elizabeth
Why the Bancomer cd's in dollar accounts...and not some in peso accounts?

Thanks for the explanation.

maspacifico - 8-2-2008 at 01:07 PM

Cypress,
Term limits? That's another can of worms we'll never see opened! Snakes won't vote themselves out of the holes and the 35% of the population that bother to vote don't seem to care as long as "their" party wins, and I am off to get....maspacifico!
We are officially "off topic"!

Pam,
Listen to oxxo, he is making sense with the CD's and Bancomer's Preferred Customer accounts. They have a branch in Todos Santos. Not sure if I agree our dollar is coming back anytime soon though......the rest of the world is looking at our bailout programs like we are drunken sailors.

maspacifico - 8-2-2008 at 01:24 PM

The online thing isn't the easiest get onto. The bank officer will walk you through it if you are at one of their Preferred sites. Once you get on though, it is all in English and pretty simple. I make my wife do it, she loves tedious, that's why she's with me!

flyfishinPam - 8-2-2008 at 06:37 PM

elizabeth, if you want to learn online banking with bancomer i am an expert. i'll be happy to show you.

Skeet/Loreto - 8-3-2008 at 02:28 AM

Pam:
I have some Advice for you and others, based on my,EXPERIENCE OF 38 YEARS IN BAJA SUR,-.

Hold onto as much CASH as you can afford.

Do not worry too much about a short.. 10% Loss.

Depending on who wins the Election will change things. I beleive if the Demos get in we will see 20% interest again, just as we did when Carter got in as President.
I was building 2 Fourplexs in Montana and got stuck with some 14.75 Interest. Added three years to my Profit Line.

If the Reps Win we will see a lot more Money put into the System by the Energy People-Pickins Plan as set forth by T Boone Pickins., Oil Drilling will start up in Anwar and other places.

Just Hold onto to the Cash>

Skeet

Skeet/Loreto - 8-3-2008 at 02:36 AM

Pam:When the Economy goes Sour you will know by the actions of the few People who control Loreto. Watch their Actions by the Delagado in doing Street work etc..
There will not be much you can do about it!
Relax and enjoy living in Loreto and on the Sea.
Might have to go a Year with out making Money, but it will come back!!!

Bob and Susan - 8-3-2008 at 06:43 AM

T Boone Pickins has a plan to reduce
dependence on foreign oil using
wind power and natural gas

remember the seinfeld episode that "george" wanted to be nick-named "t-bone"???

[Edited on 8-3-2008 by Bob and Susan]

home_vid2.jpg - 11kB

Bajajorge - 8-3-2008 at 09:40 AM

Quote:

tell us where this 11 to 1 place is

11 to 1 was at El Dorado Ranch and Pete's Camp in San Felipe as of about June-July. They may have changed since then to 10 to 1, seeing that pesos were 9.9 to 1 yesterday.

Terry, as for paying modida I'm not going to say when the last time was, or how much. Ain't gonna jinx myself. As for the gold card, the last time I used that it caused decension in the ranks.

oxxo - 8-3-2008 at 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Skeet/Loreto I beleive if the Demos get in we will see 20% interest again,

And what is your point? And why is it bad to pay what the current true cost of money is rather than borrowing from the Chinese and letting our children/grandchildren worry about paying it back? And high interest rates would only encourage Americans to save and invest at home rather than in Mexico. But not to worry, money will not go up to 20% regardless of what party is elected.

Skeet/Loreto - 8-3-2008 at 01:30 PM

0xx0- How can you say that Money will not go up as it did in the Carter years????

I remember talking to many people who stated the same thing> I think you are 100% Wrong!

I also was involved with making some money in Pesos startng in 1975 when people did not think the Mesicano Peso would go to from 8 to 1 to 3,000 to 1 !!!. I got up to 148% on 28 Day notes at the Bank in Villa Constitution.

A good many of my Friends are putting their Cash in their Home Banks{Holes in the Back yard} awaiting the bottom, then they will bring it Forth and Buy Cheap.

Skeet/Loreto

oxxo - 8-3-2008 at 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Skeet/Loreto
How can you say that Money will not go up as it did in the Carter years????

Hmmmm, let me think about this....... :light:

I guess I can say it for the same reasons you say that it will go up to 20% just like in the Carter years, which is out of context and not entirely accurate.

Furthermore, I am saying that should the cost of money go up to 20%, that is probably not a bad scenario. It means that passbook savings accounts will be paying 10%+, more US dollars will be placed into savings (which is long overdue), and Americans will find it less attractive to invest in foreign economies, and more foreign currency will flow into US banks. It could be just what the economic doctor ordered. And US speculators will lose their pants, which would be nobody's fault but their own.

comitan - 8-3-2008 at 03:10 PM

Pam just go with the flow if you try to beat the game you will probably get burnt. Just remember you are not in the speculating business.

The Gull - 8-3-2008 at 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajajorge
When traveling back to Baja I make sure I have at least 1000 pesos for the trip.

Holy cow, you actually have $100 in pesos on you at any time in Baja. What a scary thought.

Bajajorge - 8-6-2008 at 08:54 AM

Quote:

I quit buying T-shirts and blankets a few years ago, now when in Mexico I just drink alot. Come to think of it, I drink alot in the US too. But, that don't make me all bad.. :spingrin:

Holy cow, you actually have $100 in pesos on you at any time in Baja. What a scary thought.

bajalera - 8-6-2008 at 11:56 AM

Just ignore Gull--he's envious of us wealthy Nomads.

DENNIS - 8-6-2008 at 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by bajalera
Just ignore Gull--

Instructions please.

oxxo - 9-11-2008 at 06:33 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by flyfishinPam
wondering what thoughts are out there on this.

i just traded dollars for pesos this morning and the rate was 9,880
yesterday the pemex traded 9,5 to 1 dollar

the dollar is going down against the peso

oxxo - 9-11-2008 at 06:46 AM

This post was made approximately 6 weeks ago. A few days later the dollar fell to around 9.7, where it bottomed out on this cycle. I hope no one traded a lot of dollars for pesos back then, because the rate this morning is 10.737.

It is very tricky speculating in the monetary markets. Better to stay on the sidelines in a volatile market. When and if the dollar goes up to 11 to 1, that is when I might be tempted to trade a couple thousand dollars for pesos.

Not an expert, just an opinion.

Bob and Susan - 9-11-2008 at 10:19 AM

i just got 10.4 at the bank here in mulege

tripledigitken - 9-11-2008 at 11:12 AM

No coincidence that the recent slide in oil from $145 barrel to $102 parallels the 10 month dollar high against the euro (.71). Same holds for the dollar vs peso. Dollar is certainly on run these days.

Ken

The Gull - 9-12-2008 at 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by The Gull

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajajorge
When traveling back to Baja I make sure I have at least 1000 pesos for the trip.

Holy cow, you actually have $100 in pesos on you at any time in Baja. What a scary thought.

Correction to my earlier post. You actually have $93.50 USD in pesos on you at any time in Baja? Lera? Mennis?

DENNIS - 9-12-2008 at 06:53 AM

Sounds about right, Gull. 10.6x1 at this moment.

Bob and Susan - 9-12-2008 at 07:06 AM

then i got screwed yesterday at the bank

.20 per $

DENNIS - 9-12-2008 at 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bob and Susan
then i got screwed yesterday at the bank

.20 per $

You mean you paid 20 centavos per dollar? That sounds like typical Casa de Cambio rates.

CaboRon - 9-12-2008 at 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS
Sounds about right, Gull. 10.6x1 at this moment.

It is, I just checked the mid-morning rate in London,

10.5678 :cool:

That translates into a nice dinner at Hotel California :wow:

CaboRon

Pappy Jon - 9-12-2008 at 11:36 AM

Things are looking up.

Quote:

Originally posted by oxxo
This post was made approximately 6 weeks ago. A few days later the dollar fell to around 9.7, where it bottomed out on this cycle. I hope no one traded a lot of dollars for pesos back then, because the rate this morning is 10.737.

It is very tricky speculating in the monetary markets. Better to stay on the sidelines in a volatile market. When and if the dollar goes up to 11 to 1, that is when I might be tempted to trade a couple thousand dollars for pesos.

Not an expert, just an opinion.

The Gull - 9-13-2008 at 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bob and Susan
then i got screwed yesterday at the bank

.20 per $

Next time I will give you .40 pesos per dollar.

dianaji - 12-1-2008 at 07:46 PM

what is the best place to exchange dollars for pesos? any help appreciated, as i usually use dollars.

thanks diana

BajaGringo - 12-1-2008 at 07:49 PM

I have found that I have been getting a pretty good exchange from my bank - Bancomer.

bajabound2005 - 12-1-2008 at 07:50 PM

1 USD = 13.6455 MXN, right now.

Two days ago Costco was doing 13:1 and Walmart 12:1. Shop around! USE PESOS.

BajaGringo - 12-1-2008 at 07:52 PM

Make sure you pay for gas in pesos as you will lose in dollars on the rate as well as trying to figure it out without a calculator...

bajabound2005 - 12-1-2008 at 09:45 PM

Yup, while everyone else is doing 13:1, Pemex is doing 12...

Mango - 12-2-2008 at 01:07 AM

Yep, the exchange rate is pretty nice right now for us gringos.
:yes: