The peso posted its worst annual decline in more than a decade as the global financial crisis roiled the financial markets and a U.S. recession eroded
demand for Mexican exports.
This year's "backdrop didn't favor risk," said Gerardo Margolis, a vice president for emerging markets at TD Securities. "For next year, it will be
difficult to see a strengthening in the peso because of low growth or even a recession in the Mexican economy."
This year saw a dramatic surge and then a steep crash in the peso that closely tracked oil receipts. Until August Mexico's oil export earnings tracked
prices higher, but have been lower every month since then.
Economists are forecasting Mexico's economy will shrink next year by 0.1 percent, according a central bank survey published this month. The United
States buys about 80 percent of Mexican exports.
The peso fell 20 percent in 2008, the worst decline since 1995, following former President Ernesto Zedillo's abandonment of a currency peg, a move
that sparked capital outflows throughout the region in what became known as the "Tequila Crisis."
The Banco de México has spent $15.2 billion, or 18 percent, of foreign reserves to prop up the peso.
The peso's end 2008 rate to the dollar was 13.6733 per U.S. dollar. The peso will strengthen to 12.84 per dollar by the end of next year, a Dec. 19
central bank survey showed.BMG - 1-2-2009 at 01:19 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by beercan
BLOOMBERG NEWS
The peso will strengthen to 12.84 per dollar by the end of next year, a Dec. 19 central bank survey showed.
Assuming, of course, the peso doesn't weaken.DENNIS - 1-2-2009 at 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by beercan
The peso's end 2008 rate to the dollar was 13.6733 per U.S. dollar. The peso will strengthen to 12.84 per dollar by the end of next year, a Dec. 19
central bank survey showed.
Too many variables to adequatly forecast anything at this time.
Two U.S. wars in progress.
A new U.S. administration.
An insurgency in progress in Mexico.
Unemployment rising on both sides.
Romping recession.
Tourism and remittances declining in Mexico.
Etc..Etc..Etc..Etc..Etc..
These forecasters would do as well at the race track.comitan - 1-2-2009 at 04:05 PM
I am an expert and will say that the Peso will fluctuate between 13.5 and 14.5 for the year 2009.
