BajaNomad - Upcomming Congressional Elections

Upcomming Congressional Elections

CaboRon - 6-27-2009 at 06:55 AM

Will Mexico go backwards or forward?
By Raoul Lowery Contreras
Published Friday, June 26, 2009 10:36 AM MDT

With dead bodies littering Mexico, casualties of the war among Mexican drug cartels and the government of Presidente Felipe Calderon, Mexico might be headed back to the politics of the past in the coming Mexican congressional elections.

What seems clear is that the razor thin victory by Calderon over left-wing idiot Manuel Lopez Obrador and his leftist PRD party in 2006 has driven the PRD into third place among the seven-party Mexican political system. Rising from their far behind third place is the old corrupt PRI party that ruled Mexico with its own Stalinist politics for 70 years.

Recent polls of the congressional race conclude that in national results the PRI is receiving 37 percent support with Calderon's PAN party just three ticks behind.

The results will be determined by turnout. Certainly no intelligent Mexican voter can cast an honest vote for the PRI, can they? How can those voters who put it all on the line in 2000 when they elected Vicente Fox in 2000 and returned to vote Felipe Calderon into the presidency in 2006 be denied by a resurgent PRI? Is it even possible?

First, there's the economy. The American recession has hit Mexico harder than expected with car production, for example, falling. With Mexico being the 10th-largest car manufacturer in the world, a drop in auto production is highly significant. But is it the ruling party PAN's fault?

Secondly, there's the drop in emigration to the United States and the return of many Mexicans from the USA where employment in their favorite work has been lessened by rising unemployment and lack of economic growth. But is that the ruling party PAN's fault?

Thirdly, there is the war on drug cartels initiated by President Calderon hours after he took office. He dispatched tens of thousands of army troops and federal police first to his home state of Michoacan, then to Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana. Police were disarmed and individually investigated for activities with the drug criminals of the Gulf, Sinaloa and Tijuana drug cartels. The battle was joined; blood flowed.

Fourthly, the PRI has always been politically in control of rural Mexico. The PRD has control of Mexico City and parts of Indian Mexico and the ruling PAN party controls modern northern Mexico with votes that are demonstrably middle class. Turnout, then, is very important for whichever party does well.

Calderon has sent police to prison. Drug cartel top dogs were hunted down, arrested or killed. They turned on each other with lower-ranked drug smugglers hunting each other in a relentless grab for power and drug smuggling routes to the USA. Bodies by the dozens turned up all along the border and in Sinaloa Mountains and cities like Culiacan.

Recently, the Calderon administration has turned its investigations toward politicians who have enabled drug cartels and been criminally bribed by criminals. A gaggle of mayors of all political parties including some in his own PAN party have been arrested and charged with criminal activities on behalf of drug cartels. Most were of the PRI party.

Blood has flowed everywhere. Decapitated heads turned up in cities miles from their former bodies. Violence like this hasn't been seen in Mexico since the civil wars between 1910 and 1920.

That, then, is the backdrop to the coming Mexican congressional elections.

The results will hinge on two propositions: Will Mexicans return to power those who brought them to the corrupt drug-infested and ruled state it was after 70 years of pampering by a political party with deep links to drugs, the PRI; or will Mexicans line up to support the death struggle between the PAN government of Felipe Calderon and the PRI enabled "narcotrafficantes?"

Will Mexicans cast their lot with the longtime puppets of the drug peddlers bought and paid for with billions of criminal pesos earned on the streets of America through illicit drug sales to the weakest Americans of all, or will they stand up for the most courageous Mexican since Benito Juarez, the man who declared war on drugs, drug sellers and their puppets in the PRI?

We shall see in a few days. If I were voting in Mexico, I would vote with the PAN to bury the corrupt PRI, for "corruption is the PRI and PRI is corruption" as was put by Vicente Fox when he brought Mexico into the new millennium with his smashing victory in 2000. The PRI hasn't changed; Mexico has.

(Contreras' books are available at amazon.com.)

shari - 6-27-2009 at 07:43 AM

this will be my first election I am eligible to vote in....the jury is still out for me. What is fascinating is that the green party has joined forces with PRI...how can that be? this new alliance is gaining strength.

rumour around here is that folks are wanting a change...that PRD has become as corrupt as PRI once was....so it looks possible that PRI may make a come back although most rural folks here seemed very happy with PRD as it got the roads paved and invested in our area....so it will be an interesting election no doubt.

DianaT - 6-27-2009 at 08:27 AM

Now there is a great example of unbiased news reporting. :rolleyes:

It will be a very interesting election, however.

Hook - 6-27-2009 at 08:30 AM

Shari, dont you mean PAN when you say PRD?

I can see PRD affiliated with the Green party, but PRI?????

[Edited on 6-27-2009 by Hook]

Hook - 6-27-2009 at 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by jdtrotter
Now there is a great example of unbiased news reporting. :rolleyes:

It will be a very interesting election, however.

All bias aside, what dont you agree with in the article?

shari - 6-27-2009 at 08:47 AM

I is my understanding that our Municipality has a PRD presidente and the last election was a fiasco so things may change this time.

I know it sounds rather odd but in order to topple PRD, the new alliance IS between the green party and PRI....strange bedfellows indeed...but may be a means to an end.

Hook - 6-27-2009 at 08:55 AM

OK. Had no idea that PRD was big in your area.

PRI and Greenies..................wonder why they havent decided to align themselves with PAN in your area?

Something smells fishy about that alliance...................

[Edited on 6-27-2009 by Hook]

DianaT - 6-27-2009 at 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hook

Quote:

Originally posted by jdtrotter
Now there is a great example of unbiased news reporting. :rolleyes:

It will be a very interesting election, however.

All bias aside, what dont you agree with in the article?

I could pick out things that I do and do not agree with, but that isn't the point. I really detest anything passed off as news when it is an editorial that I maybe agree with or disagree with.

Editorials have their place, and that is what this one is. And as long as the writer identifies it as such, that is great.

In fact, while the original post says when it was published, it does not say where and what it was labeled as---so maybe, it was called an editorial????

Diane

Bajajack - 6-27-2009 at 08:59 AM

Pri or Pan, whats the difference, they don't run the country anyway.

:rolleyes:

flyfishinPam - 6-27-2009 at 09:05 AM

PSD = legalize everything end the freaking violence. I gotta find some of thier shirts and have a sticker on my cars.

i'm sick of this Al Capone revisited and will call it for what it is. its easy for the usa to dictate policies of another country when the violence which is a direct result of those policies is not happening in their country. believe me things would be very different if this violence were taking place there! we gotta change things here and we gotta do it now not later, and change will only come from the people not the talking heads. lets all think and be reasonable and most importantly lets decide on issues based on past performances of the actors who are making the promises, promises not acted on are worthless.

Bajaboy - 6-27-2009 at 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by jdtrotter
Now there is a great example of unbiased news reporting. :rolleyes:

It will be a very interesting election, however.

yes, Diane, I immediately switched out when he referred to the presidential candidate as an idiot, true or not.

flyfishinPam - 6-27-2009 at 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hook
Shari, dont you mean PAN when you say PRD?

I can see PRD affiliated with the Green party, but PRI?????

[Edited on 6-27-2009 by Hook]

Good hook you're paying attention the "green party" here is the pri and the partido verdes big platform is the death penalty. in a corrupt country they must think people are stoopid. well we'll see in a few days now won't we?

also from what i've noticed the pri is aligning with the pan, as its nice to be on the winning side huh? then there's the nuevo alianza who is kinda like the pan and pri mixed into one, blue + green = teal. and lead by that horrible teachers union lady Elba, :barf:

flyfishinPam - 6-27-2009 at 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajaboy

Quote:

Originally posted by jdtrotter
Now there is a great example of unbiased news reporting. :rolleyes:

It will be a very interesting election, however.

yes, Diane, I immediately switched out when he referred to the presidential candidate as an idiot, true or not.

yeah, what was up with that comment?

You're in good company

Dave - 6-27-2009 at 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by flyfishinPam
PSD = legalize everything end the freaking violence. I gotta find some of thier shirts and have a sticker on my cars.

It would be my guess that every mafioso in Mexico is a PSD supporter.

arrowhead - 6-27-2009 at 10:50 AM

As I said a few weeks ago, it is still my opinion that if Calderon cannot beat the drug cartels within the next three years, the next president of Mexico is going to be a drug dealer.

Legalizing drugs in the US will not change one thing in Mexico. The drug cartels have many different business lines. Drug dealing is just one of them. They would still have the extorsion business, kidnapping business, Mexican street drug business, car theft business, coyote business, etc. Besides, even if drugs were legalized in the US, the taxes on them would be so high, that illegal drugs would still be cheaper.

flyfishinPam - 6-27-2009 at 04:08 PM

I am not proposing legalizing drugs in the USA the (PSD) partido social democrata is proposing legalizing them here in Mexico as the topic of this conversation is the upcoming elections in Mexico on 5 july. PSD is what I was referring to and only one of their platforms is to legalize drugs. IF and a big IF drugs were legalized in Mexico while remaining illegal in the USA the violence would move NOTMB.

flyfishinPam - 6-27-2009 at 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dave

Quote:

Originally posted by flyfishinPam
PSD = legalize everything end the freaking violence. I gotta find some of thier shirts and have a sticker on my cars.

It would be my guess that every mafioso in Mexico is a PSD supporter.

I highly doubt it because legalizing the wares would make them legitimate businessmen (women) and that would dictate they pay taxes to this government that so badly needs it now, on their ganancias. Remember that's how the US government finally got the mafiosos after prohibition was lifted. this is merely history repeating itself in another country and in a different time yet with similar tactics, just observations and conclusions drawn on my part.

[Edited on 6-27-2009 by flyfishinPam]

Cypress - 6-27-2009 at 04:19 PM

Hope they vote in a better bunch than we have north of the border.

flyfishinPam - 6-27-2009 at 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hook

Quote:

Originally posted by jdtrotter
Now there is a great example of unbiased news reporting. :rolleyes:

It will be a very interesting election, however.

All bias aside, what dont you agree with in the article?

I don't agree with this-

"or will they stand up for the most courageous Mexican since Benito Juarez, the man who declared war on drugs, drug sellers and their puppets in the PRI?"

Felipe Calderon and Benimerito da las Americas Juarez there's no comparison at all.

Dave - 6-27-2009 at 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by flyfishinPam

I highly doubt it because legalizing the wares would make them legitimate businessmen (women) and that would dictate they pay taxes to this government that so badly needs it now, on their ganancias. Remember that's how the US government finally got the mafiosos after prohibition was lifted.

Paying taxes? What a concept. :rolleyes:

Hacienda is just as corrupt as any government agency. They take bribes and demand mordida. I've experienced it firsthand.

The cartels would love for Mexico to legitimize their industry. It would greatly reduce their payments to the police, armed forces and government officials. That's also why it will never happen.

toneart - 6-27-2009 at 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by arrowhead
As I said a few weeks ago, it is still my opinion that if Calderon cannot beat the drug cartels within the next three years, the next president of Mexico is going to be a drug dealer.

Legalizing drugs in the US will not change one thing in Mexico. The drug cartels have many different business lines. Drug dealing is just one of them. They would still have the extorsion business, kidnapping business, Mexican street drug business, car theft business, coyote business, etc. Besides, even if drugs were legalized in the US, the taxes on them would be so high, that illegal drugs would still be cheaper.

I would normally react to this post and oppose it. I have long thought that legalization of most drugs in The United States and taxing it would take the middle man (cartels) out of it and thereby end the violence. We could certainly use the tax revenue.

I would certainly not be opposed to this for knee-jerk reactionary, political or moralistic beliefs. But Arrowhead makes a good rational case for not legalizing and taxing. I need to do some more thinking on this. One hates to be shown to be wrong. I am not totally convinced, but as I said, Arrowhead makes some good points here. :wow:

If Arrowhead's scenario is the way the elections will play out, that is a damned shame. Sometimes a reality check is necessary. It is what it is. Not good!