BajaNomad

In Mexico, the poor get poorer

bajamigo - 7-2-2009 at 09:58 PM

Mexico Recession to Add 4 Million to Ranks of Poor, Report Says

By Sebastian Boyd and Jens Erik Gould

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Mexicans living in poverty will increase this year by more than 4 million people from 2008 because of the recession, according to the World Bank.

Mexico may need three years to return to the poverty levels it had before the recession, according to a report by World Bank economists to be distributed at a meeting of regional finance ministers in Chile tomorrow. The report, obtained by Bloomberg News, defines Latin Americans living on less than the equivalent of $4 a day as poor and those subsisting on less than the equivalent of $2 as extremely poor.

World Bank projections suggest that this year there will be “8.3 million more poor people than in 2008 in Latin America and the Caribbean,” the economists wrote. “About half of the people that will fall into poverty are in Mexico.”

The economic contraction in the first half has been “severe,” according to the central bank, as the global crisis saps demand for exports and spurs job losses. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts Mexico’s economy will shrink 8.5 percent this year, the biggest annual contraction since 1932.

Last year, President Felipe Calderon announced a program to boost aid to more than 5 million of Mexico’s poorest families by 22 percent to 655 pesos ($49.36) a month. His goal is to decrease extreme poverty -- defined as families unable to pay for a basket of basic foodstuffs -- by 30 percent by 2012. In 2006, 10.6 percent of the population was in the lowest income group.

The number of people living in extreme poverty in Latin America may increase by as many as 3.6 million this year, the report says.

An annual decline in gross domestic product of more than 3 percent in a Latin American country would result in a 4.4 percent increase in poverty, the report said, calculating the figure using past economic data in the region since 1981.

Mexico’s unemployment rate rose to a record 5.31 percent in May as factories exporting to the U.S. trimmed payrolls as demand fell. Industrial production in April fell the most since the peso crisis 14 years ago.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sebastian Boyd in Santiago at sboyd9@bloomberg.net; Jens Erik Gould in Mexico City at jgould9@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 2, 2009 18:33 EDT

gnukid - 7-2-2009 at 10:09 PM

Mexico is the best suited to bear the devastation of the worldwide economic destruction underway with it's own resources. In Mexico we laugh at the idea of economic hardship, the Americans are and will be the worst to suffer with no end in sight. Do not feel sorry for Mexico-We are strong and resourceful!

gnukid - 7-2-2009 at 10:39 PM

Americans are simply in denial. It is time to wake up and understand why Mexico is so strong today even though the economy is hurting due to monopolies and corruption. There is no denial in Mexico-there is self-reliance and strength in the individual and family.

America is in trouble in every way. Mexico has growth potential and a future.

I wonder why the American arrogance is strong while the nation is bankrupt yet The average Goldman Sachs employee take-home is US700,000?

California is bankrupt yet was/is the 4th largest world economy-but Mexico is in denial?

What will it take for the USA to wake up and see that being poor and self-reliant is not a weakness; but being arrogant and ignorant while supporting the largest most wasteful government and military in the world is a weakness.

[Edited on 7-3-2009 by gnukid]

DENNIS - 7-3-2009 at 03:40 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by bajamigo

Mexico’s unemployment rate rose to a record 5.31 percent in May as factories exporting to the U.S. trimmed payrolls as demand fell. Industrial production in April fell the most since the peso crisis 14 years ago.



How would Mexico even begin to know the true rate of unemployment? How many people in Mexico are connected to a system that keeps track of employees? Is there any method in place to count the casual construction workers and freelancers? The beggers and thieves? The homeless? Who counts them?
Nobody counts them and that figure, 5.31 % is a pure, disengenuous nonsense

gnukid - 7-3-2009 at 05:10 AM

And the USA counts only *new* unemployment insurance applications which are limited to those who had a job and were fired without cause, not those who are *actually* unemployed looking for work, either. USA's unemployed who want to work is substantially higher than reported. It's actually truly unknown (though it could be known), yet reported daily as a totally false figure, how disingenuous is that? C'mon these types of articles and discussions are like the pot calling the kettle black.

DENNIS - 7-3-2009 at 06:02 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid
USA's unemployed who want to work is substantially higher than reported.


That has to be true.
In Mexico, unemployment is measured with a different scale. Longevity of one's unemployed status is one of them [it doesn't begin with the pink slip] and a low rate has always been the goal to publish to give an illusion of a robust economy while trying to encourage foreign investment.

Anyway, in the US, crime would be a more accurate indicator of unemployment than today's methods of determination. Desperation is one large factor in the commision of crime.

k-rico - 7-3-2009 at 07:27 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid
USA's unemployed who want to work is substantially higher than reported.


I wonder how many US citizens collecting unemployment and therefore reported as unemployed and wanting to work are really looking for a job. Perhaps some are spending a lot of time not at all related to looking for a job and enjoying a long "vacation." Many are also working "under the table."

What do you think? Maybe 25% of those collecting unemployment are goofing off?

[Edited on 7-3-2009 by k-rico]

DENNIS - 7-3-2009 at 07:44 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by k-rico


What do you think? Maybe 25% of those collecting unemployment are goofing off?



We'll never know. At least those on unemployment have a work history. That's encouraging. There are areas within the welfare system that don't leave me with that comfortable feeling. [not that unemployment insurance is welfare...it isn't]

gnukid - 7-3-2009 at 07:45 AM

Benefits in the USA are limited to those who worked for a corp which paid into the fund (not the 20 million day workers) and eligibility is only for those who lost work due to the position being discontinued. The benefits may last as long as a maximum of 26 weeks in most states and taxes must be paid on that income as well. The total maximum value therefore is something like 26 x $331 = $8606 - $8606/3 or about $5000 and is limited to a very small group. Unemployment reporting has little to do with the true state of the labor force except a small representation of the total percentage.

In Mexico many more employees may seek unemployment, in fact any worker may quit their job and they may demand their unemployment payment for no reason. In Mexico unemployment is far more significant and substantial with opportunity for abuse. In fact on my street, most workers quit for Summer, every Summer in order to cash out their unemployment and relax. Why wouldn't they?

woody with a view - 7-3-2009 at 07:48 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by k-rico
Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid
USA's unemployed who want to work is substantially higher than reported.


I wonder how many US citizens collecting unemployment and therefore reported as unemployed and wanting to work are really looking for a job. Perhaps some are spending a lot of time not at all related to looking for a job and enjoying a long "vacation." Many are also working "under the table."

What do you think? Maybe 25% of those collecting unemployment are goofing off?

i know a guy who has mastered this technique. side jobs and vacations..... and a check every 2 weeks.... whatta country!

[Edited on 7-3-2009 by k-rico]

woody with a view - 7-3-2009 at 07:51 AM

Gnu

in cali it's $450/week b4 tax. times 26 weeks, plus 13 weeks thanks to the "stimulus" and now they're looking at IOU's....

living the dream?

DENNIS - 7-3-2009 at 07:52 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid
In fact on my street, most workers quit for Summer, every Summer in order to cash out their unemployment and relax. Why wouldn't they?


A few reasons come to mind. One being, it's a good thing to have a job. You mean to say, your neighbors come into and leave the work force on a whim? Doesn't quite give the impression of "tough times." More an impression of old Mexican priorities.......family and personal commitments first and work, somewhere down the list.

CaboRon - 7-3-2009 at 07:53 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by bajamigo

Mexico’s unemployment rate rose to a record 5.31 percent in May as factories exporting to the U.S. trimmed payrolls as demand fell. Industrial production in April fell the most since the peso crisis 14 years ago.



How would Mexico even begin to know the true rate of unemployment? How many people in Mexico are connected to a system that keeps track of employees? Is there any method in place to count the casual construction workers and freelancers? The beggers and thieves? The homeless? Who counts them?
Nobody counts them and that figure, 5.31 % is a pure, disengenuous nonsense


I agree .....

DENNIS - 7-3-2009 at 07:55 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by CaboRon
I agree .....



Thank you. :biggrin:

CaboRon - 7-3-2009 at 08:02 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid


In Mexico many more employees may seek unemployment, in fact any worker may quit their job and they may demand their unemployment payment for no reason. In Mexico unemployment is far more significant and substantial with opportunity for abuse. In fact on my street, most workers quit for Summer, every Summer in order to cash out their unemployment and relax. Why wouldn't they?


And they wonder why Mexico's GNP is so low ....

They have a lousy work ethic .....

CaboRon - 7-3-2009 at 08:03 AM

Plunge in Mexico remittances is worst on record
Remittances from Mexicans living and working in the United States are continuing to fall.

"Money sent home by Mexicans working abroad fell by 19.9 percent in May, the biggest monthly decline on record as the U.S. recession slashed jobs," reports the Associated Press in Business Week.

"Remittances dropped to $1.9 billion from $2.4 billion in May 2008, the central bank said on Wednesday. The amount of money sent home in the first five months of 2009 fell 11.3 percent to $9.2 billion compared with the same period last year.

"Remittances are the second-biggest source of foreign currency after oil exports in Mexico, and their decline has contributed to the country's own economic downturn."

DENNIS - 7-3-2009 at 08:08 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by CaboRon
"Remittances are the second-biggest source of foreign currency after oil exports in Mexico, and their decline has contributed to the country's own economic downturn."



Hope this doesn't drive up the price of gas. That will just make matters worse.

vandenberg - 7-3-2009 at 08:36 AM

In Mexico the poor get poorer

And in the good old USA the poor are thriving.:biggrin:

Get real, this is happening all over the world. What we need is more Husseins with stimulus plans to defer the poverty to our children and let them figure it out.

JESSE - 7-3-2009 at 08:55 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by CaboRon
Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid


In Mexico many more employees may seek unemployment, in fact any worker may quit their job and they may demand their unemployment payment for no reason. In Mexico unemployment is far more significant and substantial with opportunity for abuse. In fact on my street, most workers quit for Summer, every Summer in order to cash out their unemployment and relax. Why wouldn't they?


And they wonder why Mexico's GNP is so low ....

They have a lousy work ethic .....


Here you go again, you just can´t seem to stop can´t you?

FYI, Mexico has the highest GDP per capita in Latin America. Now you might consider that bad if you compare it to the richest nations, but that would be as unfair as saying an upper middle class or middle class family has poor income comparing it to a billionaire. Now as far as you work ethic comment, you are again (what a surprise) flat wrong. Baja Sur workers (especially males) do have prehaps the lousiest work ethic in Mexico, wich is not surprising to me since this place was just a quiet, relaxing, small town that was trusted into the schizo-materialistic world we all come from. But the rest of Mexico is full of pretty good workers that are known for working hard, very hard for not much money.

tripledigitken - 7-3-2009 at 09:51 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by CaboRon
"Remittances are the second-biggest source of foreign currency after oil exports in Mexico, and their decline has contributed to the country's own economic downturn."



Hope this doesn't drive up the price of gas. That will just make matters worse.


Mexico needs to get serious in upgrading their oil fields and expanding them as well. Without doing so their second biggest source of foreign currency is going to die a slow death.

DENNIS - 7-3-2009 at 09:58 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by tripledigitken
Mexico needs to get serious in upgrading their oil fields and expanding them as well. Without doing so their second biggest source of foreign currency is going to die a slow death.



It's even more involved than that, Ken. The equipment is so archaic and worn out, it'll probably require foreign investment to rejuvinate it and that's going to be a hard sell at home. Symbol of sovereignty, expropriation and all that stuff.

CaboRon - 7-3-2009 at 10:01 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JESSE
Quote:
Originally posted by CaboRon
Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid


In Mexico many more employees may seek unemployment, in fact any worker may quit their job and they may demand their unemployment payment for no reason. In Mexico unemployment is far more significant and substantial with opportunity for abuse. In fact on my street, most workers quit for Summer, every Summer in order to cash out their unemployment and relax. Why wouldn't they?


And they wonder why Mexico's GNP is so low ....

They have a lousy work ethic .....


Here you go again, you just can´t seem to stop can´t you?

FYI, Mexico has the highest GDP per capita in Latin America. Now you might consider that bad if you compare it to the richest nations, but that would be as unfair as saying an upper middle class or middle class family has poor income comparing it to a billionaire. Now as far as you work ethic comment, you are again (what a surprise) flat wrong. Baja Sur workers (especially males) do have prehaps the lousiest work ethic in Mexico, wich is not surprising to me since this place was just a quiet, relaxing, small town that was trusted into the schizo-materialistic world we all come from. But the rest of Mexico is full of pretty good workers that are known for working hard, very hard for not much money.




Have to raise the flag on this one .....

My experience in hireing mexicans in the US and in Baja is that they require one on one supervision otherwise they will do the easiest thing regardless of whether it is the best and will leave you with a huge bill to restore their substandard and lazy work.

Mexico gov't lies about just about everything ...

tripledigitken - 7-3-2009 at 10:10 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by tripledigitken
Mexico needs to get serious in upgrading their oil fields and expanding them as well. Without doing so their second biggest source of foreign currency is going to die a slow death.



It's even more involved than that, Ken. The equipment is so archaic and worn out, it'll probably require foreign investment to rejuvinate it and that's going to be a hard sell at home. Symbol of sovereignty, expropriation and all that stuff.


Dennis,

I do know and to say it's at crisis stage is not overstating it.

At the current production levels Mexico will have to stop EXPORTING IN 2012. Revenue from oil production has fallen 50% in the last year.

Ken

http://seekingalpha.com/article/144962-should-mexico-stop-ex...

[Edited on 7-3-2009 by tripledigitken]

JESSE - 7-3-2009 at 10:26 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by CaboRon
Quote:
Originally posted by JESSE
Quote:
Originally posted by CaboRon
Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid


In Mexico many more employees may seek unemployment, in fact any worker may quit their job and they may demand their unemployment payment for no reason. In Mexico unemployment is far more significant and substantial with opportunity for abuse. In fact on my street, most workers quit for Summer, every Summer in order to cash out their unemployment and relax. Why wouldn't they?


And they wonder why Mexico's GNP is so low ....

They have a lousy work ethic .....


Here you go again, you just can´t seem to stop can´t you?

FYI, Mexico has the highest GDP per capita in Latin America. Now you might consider that bad if you compare it to the richest nations, but that would be as unfair as saying an upper middle class or middle class family has poor income comparing it to a billionaire. Now as far as you work ethic comment, you are again (what a surprise) flat wrong. Baja Sur workers (especially males) do have prehaps the lousiest work ethic in Mexico, wich is not surprising to me since this place was just a quiet, relaxing, small town that was trusted into the schizo-materialistic world we all come from. But the rest of Mexico is full of pretty good workers that are known for working hard, very hard for not much money.




Have to raise the flag on this one .....

My experience in hireing mexicans in the US and in Baja is that they require one on one supervision otherwise they will do the easiest thing regardless of whether it is the best and will leave you with a huge bill to restore their substandard and lazy work.

Mexico gov't lies about just about everything ...


Move to Sweden then, and stop b-tching about everything like a little girl.

Woooosh - 7-3-2009 at 10:38 AM

A lot of good posts. My two centavos:

The USA unemployment numbers are bad, but still mask the the biggest component- the UNDERemployed. People who have had their pay and work schedules hacked- but haven't been cut loose entirely yet. That is a huge number that is not counted.

The problem with depending on a cycle of unemployment is lack of health insurance. For most of us- one cancer or cardiac diagnosis could wipe us out financially- but for health insurance. I have a self employed (has run his own company all his life) brother in law who needs two knee replacements and is in pain every day (swears it's from a chemical he was exposed to in Vietnam). He has to wait for medicare to kick in four more years to be able to afford the surgery. That sucks because by the time he gets his new knees he won't have as much time on the links to use them.

I do agree Mexicans will fare better than most in any ecomonic downturn- they are used to doing without, Ameircans just aren't. Mexicans enjoy what they have while they have it and don't fret about things they can't control when it is gone.

JMHO

Lastly- the definition of poor. Most of us in Baja never see the poor people the numbers talk about. No one living in a solid walled house is poor. No one driving the worst beater car is poor. The Mexicans who live hand to tortillas in flimsy cardboard shacks are the poor. And they are many.

And yes- I agree Mexicans are a little on the undermotivated side. But they get jerked around so much on both sides of the border that I don't blame them.

[Edited on 7-3-2009 by Woooosh]

DENNIS - 7-3-2009 at 10:50 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Woooosh
I have a self employed (has run his own company all his life) brother in law who needs two knee replacements and is in pain every day (swears it's from a chemical he was exposed to in Vietnam).


Never heard of chemical induced knee problems. Sounds as though the VA has never heard of them either. The days of denying Agent Orange damage are pretty much over.

Sorry for the hijack but, I had to say it.


:light: Didn't think to ask....Were these chemicals he was exposed to externally or perhaps something he took which made him think he could fly or something else?

[Edited on 7-3-2009 by DENNIS]

Cypress - 7-3-2009 at 11:03 AM

One of the most common health problems among the "poor" in the USA is obesity.:o

Woooosh - 7-3-2009 at 11:10 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by DENNIS
Quote:
Originally posted by Woooosh
I have a self employed (has run his own company all his life) brother in law who needs two knee replacements and is in pain every day (swears it's from a chemical he was exposed to in Vietnam).


Never heard of chemical induced knee problems. Sounds as though the VA has never heard of them either. The days of denying Agent Orange damage are pretty much over.

Sorry for the hijack but, I had to say it.


:light: Didn't think to ask....Were these chemicals he was exposed to externally or perhaps something he took which made him think he could fly or something else?

[Edited on 7-3-2009 by DENNIS]


He never been a complainer about anything. Came back with a silver star and never ever has brought it up. He just can't think of any other possible cause for both knees to deteriorate. I don't think you'd get him anywhere's near a VA hospital- these guys were beat up pretty hard by that expereince and the VA system itself back then. The ones that clung to it are the ones holding signs at intersections. (No fourth of July disrespect intended)

[Edited on 7-3-2009 by Woooosh]

arrowhead - 7-3-2009 at 11:20 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid
And the USA counts only *new* unemployment insurance applications which are limited to those who had a job and were fired without cause, not those who are *actually* unemployed looking for work, either. USA's unemployed who want to work is substantially higher than reported. It's actually truly unknown (though it could be known), yet reported daily as a totally false figure, how disingenuous is that? C'mon these types of articles and discussions are like the pot calling the kettle black.


That is just not true gnukid. The Department of Labor publishes six measures of unemployment, U1 through U6. The one you see in the newspapers is U3. The six are:

U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons

Here is all six of them:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

The range is 5.1% to 16.5%. You could do yourself a big favor by spending a little time gathering the facts before you destroy your credibility. Mexico's unemployment rates is pure BS. First of all, they only report URBAN unemployment, a fact they clearly disclose if you would actually read the words. They totally ignore agricultural unemployment. They also do not bother to report underemployment. The true unemployment rate in Mexico is over 25%.

arrowhead - 7-3-2009 at 11:30 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Woooosh
He never been a complainer about anything. Came back with a silver star and never ever has brought it up. He just can't think of any other possible cause for both knees to deteriorate. I don't think you'd get him anywhere's near a VA hospital- these guys were beat up pretty hard by that expereince and the VA system itself back then. The ones that clung to it are the ones holding signs at intersections. (No fourth of July disrespect intended)


Your brother-in-law is making a big, big mistake. The VA hospital in San Diego is first class. It is a training hospital for the doctors at USD. So when one goes for knee surgery, you usually get the number one knee doctor in San Diego supervising the surgery, that is where they train the doctors. Waiting for medicare is not wise. First of all, there is still a 20% co-pay, which will not be cheap. The VA co-pay is something like $50 for that surgery, including everybody: surgeon, antheisiologist, hospital stay, medicine.

Choices

Dave - 7-3-2009 at 11:40 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by CaboRon

And they wonder why Mexico's GNP is so low ....

They have a lousy work ethic .....


Mexico ranks 13th in GNP. Just ahead of Australia. Holland and Switzerland rank well below. Any guess as to the percentage of Swiss or lowlanders who live on two dollars a day?

Mexico has chosen to ignore its poor. :no:

DENNIS - 7-3-2009 at 12:05 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Woooosh
He never been a complainer about anything. Came back with a silver star and never ever has brought it up. He just can't think of any other possible cause for both knees to deteriorate. I don't think you'd get him anywhere's near a VA hospital- these guys were beat up pretty hard by that expereince and the VA system itself back then. The ones that clung to it are the ones holding signs at intersections. (No fourth of July disrespect intended)



I have utmost respect for the man and the Silver Star. He should rethink his opinion of the VA. It's changed and so has their treatment of G.I.s with old wounds. I know.
He has coverage there, for positive. Tell him to take what he's more than entitled to and get fixed.

Woooosh - 7-3-2009 at 12:07 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by arrowhead
Quote:
Originally posted by Woooosh
He never been a complainer about anything. Came back with a silver star and never ever has brought it up. He just can't think of any other possible cause for both knees to deteriorate. I don't think you'd get him anywhere's near a VA hospital- these guys were beat up pretty hard by that expereince and the VA system itself back then. The ones that clung to it are the ones holding signs at intersections. (No fourth of July disrespect intended)


Your brother-in-law is making a big, big mistake. The VA hospital in San Diego is first class. It is a training hospital for the doctors at USD. So when one goes for knee surgery, you usually get the number one knee doctor in San Diego supervising the surgery, that is where they train the doctors. Waiting for medicare is not wise. First of all, there is still a 20% co-pay, which will not be cheap. The VA co-pay is something like $50 for that surgery, including everybody: surgeon, antheisiologist, hospital stay, medicine.


Thanks. You are probably right- but he's on the east coast. I'm certain the VA has gotten much better since his war, but he wants nothing to do with the VA. He has private insurance and they won't cover it. I know better than to even bring it up. We Connecticut yankees are a stubborn lot and that's not always a good thing. But I do know it affects his quality of life- like for golf. I treated them to a Vegas vacation and he really couldn't enjoy that either. I know you're probably right- but his perception is stronger than todays reality. He's also almost deaf in both ears now and you can hear him talking over himself a block away. Appreciate the feedback though.

[Edited on 7-3-2009 by Woooosh]

Cypress - 7-3-2009 at 01:37 PM

gnukid,soulpatch, To you all and the rest of the "what's wrong with the world crowd", go ahead , blame the USA. Everybody else does. Happy 4th. of July.:biggrin:

Cypress - 7-3-2009 at 02:39 PM

soulpatch, You're right ! Where do you sign up for those lessons?:)