BajaNomad

Another point of view

Jack Swords - 8-21-2009 at 12:41 PM

Just received this from a friend in La Paz. Good discussion material.

THE NEW GLOBAL ECONOMIC REALITY
First: A reality check on Mexico
Mexico is in a unique position to reap many of the benefits of the decline of the US economy. In order to not violate NAFTA and other agreements the U.S.A. cannot use direct protectionism, so it is content to allow the media to play this protectionist role. The U.S. media – over the last year has portrayed Mexico as being on the brink of economic collapse and civil war. The Mexican people are either beheaded, kidnapped, poor, corrupt, or narco-traffickers. The American news media was particularly aggressive in the weeks leading up to spring break. The main reason for this is money. During that two-week period, over 120,000 young American citizens poured into Mexico and left behind hundreds of millions of dollars.
L et's look at the reality of the massive drug and corruption problem, kidnappings, murders and money. The U.S. Secretary of State Clinton was clear in her honest assessment of the problem. "Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade. Our inability to prevent the weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police officers, soldiers and civilians," Clinton said. The other large illegal business that is smuggled into the U.S.A. that no one likes to talk about is Human Traffic for prostitution. This "business" is globally now competing with drugs in terms of profits.
It is critical to understand, however that the horrific violence in Mexico is over 95% confined to the three transshipping cities for these two businesses, Tijuana , Nogales , and Juarez . The Mexican government is so serious about fighting this, that they have committed over 30,000 soldiers to these borders towns. There was a thoughtful article written by a professor at the University of Juarez . He was reminded of the Prohibition years in the U.S.A. and compared Juarez to Chicago when Al Capone was conducting his reign of terror capped=2 0off with The Saint Valentine's Day Massacre. During these years, just like Juarez today, 99% of the citizens went about their daily lives and attended classes, went to the movies, restaurants, and parks. Is there corruption in Mexico? YES !!! Is there an equal amount of corruption related to this business in the U.S.A. ? YES !!!. When you have a pair of illegal businesses that generate over $300,000,000,000 in sales you will find massive corruption. Make no mistake about the Mexican Drug Cartel, these "businessmen" are 100 times more sophisticated than the bumbling bootleggers during Prohibition. They form profitable alliances all over the U.S.A. They do cost benefit analysis of their business much better than the US automobile industry.
They have found over the years that the cost of bribing U.S. . and Mexican Border 1 Guards and the transportation costs of moving marijuana from Sinaloa to California have cut significantly into profits. That is why over the past 5-7 years they have been growing marijuana in State and Federal Parks and BLM land all across America .
From a business standpoint, this is a tremendous cost savings on several levels. ;Let's look at California as an example as one of the largest consumers. When you have $14.2 billion of Marijuana grown and consumed in one state, there is savings on transportation, less loss of product due to confiscation and an overall reduction cost of bribery with law enforcement and parks service people. Another great savings is the benefit to their employees. The penalties in Mexico for growing range from 5-15 years. The penalties in California , on average are 18 months, and out in 8 months. The same economic principles are now being applied to the methamphetamine factories. FOX News continues to scare people with its focus on kidnapping. There are kidnappings in Mexico. The concentration of kidnappings has been in Mexico City , among the very rich and the three aforementioned border Cities. With the exception of Mexico, the number one city for kidnappings among NAFTA countries is Phoenix , Arizona with over 359 in 2008. The Phoenix Police estimate that twice that number of kidnappings goes unreported, because like Mexico 99% of these crimes were directly related to drug and human traffic. Phoenix ,unfortunately, is geographically profitable transshipping location. Mexicans, just like 99% of U.S.Citizens during prohibition, go about their daily lives all over the country. They get up, go to school or work and live their lives untouched by the border town violence. These same protectionist news sources have misled the public as to the real danger from the swine flu in Mexico and temporary devastated the tourism business. As of May 27 2009 there have been 87 deaths in Mexico from the swine flu. During those same five months there have been 36 murdered school children in Chicago. The "news sources" in the USA have a lack of integrity. By their logic, if 27 deaths from the swine flu in Mexico warrants canceling flights and cruise ships to Mexico, then close all roads and highways in the USA because of record 43,359 automobile related deaths in the USA in 2008.

What is just getting underway is what many are calling the "Largest southern migration to Mexico of people and real estate assets since the Civil War". A significant percentage of the Baby Boomers have been doing the research and are making the life changing decision to move out of the U.S.A. The number one retirement destination in theworld is Mexico . There ar e already over 2,000,000 US and Canadian property owners in Mexico. The most conservative number of American and Canadian Baby Boomers who are on their way to owning property in Mexico for full or part time living in the next 15 years is over 6,000,000. Do the math on 6,000,000 people buying a $300,000 house or condo and you will understand why the U.S. Government is trying to tax this massive shift of money to Mexico through H.R.3056. The U.S. government calls this "The Tax Collection Responsibility Act of 2007". Those who will have to pay it are calling this the EXIT TAX.
Mexico : A better economic choice than China.
Another large exodus from the U.S.A is high paying skilled jobs. The job shift in automobile sector, both car and parts manufacturing, is already known by most investors. In the last few months as John Deere and Caterpillar have been laying off thousands of workers in the U.S.A. , and hiring equal numbers in Mexico. The most recent industry that is making the shift is the aerospace manufacturers. In the city of Zacatecas there is currently a $210 =2 0 million aerospace facility being built. With the 11U.S. companies moving there, it is estimated to provide over 200,000 new high paying jobs in the coming years. One of the main factors for the shift in job south to Mexico instead of China is realistic analysis of total production, labor and delivery costs. While the labor costs in China are 40% less on average, the overall transportation costs and inherent risks of a long distance supply chain, and quality control issues, gives Mexico a distinct financial
advantage. Mexico 's real economic future Mexico has avoided completely the subprime problem that has devastated the U.S. banking industry. The Mexican banks are healthy and profitable. Mexico has a growing and very health middle and upper middle class. The very recent introduction of residential financing has Mexico in a unique position of having over 90% of current homeowners owning their house outright. U .S. banks are competing for the Mexican, Canadian and American cross border loan business. It is and will continue to be a very safe and very profitable business. These same banks that were loaning in a reckless manner ha learned their lesson20and are loaning here the old fashioned way. They require a minimum of a 680 credit score,30% down payment, and verifiable income that can support the loan. In most areas of Mexico where Baby Boomers are moving to, with the exception of Puerto Penasco (which did not have a national and international base of buyers), there is no real estate bubble. The higher end markets ($2-20 million) in many of these destinations are going through a modest correction. The Baby Boomers market here is between $200,000 and $600,000. With the continuing demand inside the Bay of Banderas , that price point, in the coming years, will disappear. This is the reason the Mexican government is spending billions of dollars on more infrastructure north along the coast all the way up to Mazatlan. The other major area where America has become overpriced is in the field of health care. This massive shift of revenues is estimated to add 5-7% to Mexico 's GDP. The name for this "business" is Medical Tourism. The two biggest competitors for Mexico were Thailand and India . Thailand and India 's biggest drawback is geography. Also recent events, Th ailand 's inability to keep a government in place and the recent terrorist attack in Mumbai, have helped Mexico capture close to half of this growth industry. In Mexico today there are over 56 world class hospitals being built to keep up with this business.. Mexico is currently sitting on a cash surplus and an almost balanced budget. Most Americans have never heard of Carlos Slim until he loaned the New York Times $250 million. After that it became clear to many investors around the world that Mexicans already knew: that Mexico had been able to avoid the worst of the U.S. economic devastation. Mexico 's resilience is to be admired. When the U.S.
Federal Reserve granted a $30 billion loan to each of the fol lowing countries Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and Brazil, Mexico reinvested the money in Treasury bonds in an account in New York City .
According to oil traders, Mexico's Pemex wisely as the price of oil shot to $147 a barrel put in place an investment strategy that hinged on oil trading in the range of $38-$60 a barrel.
Since the beginning of 2009 Mexico has been collecting revenues on hedged positions that give them $90- $110 per barrel today. Mexico 's recent and under reported oil discovery in the Palaeo Channels of Chicontepec has placed it third in the world for oil reserves, right behind Canada and Saudi Arabia .
The following is a quote from Rosalind Wilson, President of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce on March 19,2009. "The strength of the Mexican economic system makes the country a favorite destination for Canadian investment".

The demand for full and part time living by American and Canadian Baby Boomers is evident throughout the country.
The top two choice locations are ocean front, and ocean view. Mexico, with the world's 13th largest GDP, is no longer a "Third World Country", but rather fast growing, economically secure state, as the most recent five-year history of its financial markets when compared to the U.S.A.'s financial markets suggests.
DOW JONES MAY 2004 10,200 MAY 2009 8,200 20% LOSS IN 5 YEARS
MEXICAN BOLSA MAY 2004 10,000 MAY 2009 23,000 130% GAIN IN 5 YEARS

Adamarie King
A Conde' Nast Traveler Magazine

arrowhead - 8-21-2009 at 01:16 PM

Another poorly researched "Blame it all on the US" article.

rpleger - 8-21-2009 at 01:41 PM

Sounds right to me...Viva Mexico!!!!!!

wilderone - 8-21-2009 at 01:57 PM

Didn't mention the poverty, government corruption, illiteracy, poor infrastructure. And Mexico doesn't take care of its environment, and will turn its back on its citizens in favor of monied politicos. Whoever wrote the article was desperately trying to entice a favored view, but is fraught with flawed analysis. Absolutely none of that economics bears on the day-in-the-life of the average citizen - gringo or Mexican or Indigenous. Most will have inadequate electricity, water, waste, sewage, transportation, job opportunity.

ElFaro - 8-21-2009 at 02:11 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Jack Swords

The main reason for this is money. During that two-week period, over 120,000 young American citizens poured into Mexico and left behind hundreds of millions of dollars.


What...? Even $100,000,000 divided by 120,000 is $835 per...that's an awful lot of beer, fish tacos, and condoms!! Hard to believe the cheap young college gringos would spend that much each. If it was "hundreds of millions" ???? Come on !! :?:

The Truth, Thankyou

CaboRon - 8-21-2009 at 02:26 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by wilderone
Didn't mention the poverty, government corruption, illiteracy, poor infrastructure. And Mexico doesn't take care of its environment, and will turn its back on its citizens in favor of monied politicos. Whoever wrote the article was desperately trying to entice a favored view, but is fraught with flawed analysis. Absolutely none of that economics bears on the day-in-the-life of the average citizen - gringo or Mexican or Indigenous. Most will have inadequate electricity, water, waste, sewage, transportation, job opportunity.

bajalou - 8-21-2009 at 02:31 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by ElFaro
Quote:
Originally posted by Jack Swords

The main reason for this is money. During that two-week period, over 120,000 young American citizens poured into Mexico and left behind hundreds of millions of dollars.


What...? Even $100,000,000 divided by 120,000 is $835 per...that's an awful lot of beer, fish tacos, and condoms!! Hard to believe the cheap young college gringos would spend that much each. If it was "hundreds of millions" ???? Come on !! :?:


I've heard it reported that the average spent including hotels etc is well over $1,000 per person. Spring break in another country (where you don't drive) isn't cheap.

Crusoe - 8-21-2009 at 02:36 PM

Ms. King of Conde Nast Mag. in the last paragraph states that "Mexico is no longer Third World Country".......That is a completely bogus claim as anyone who has traveled in and around Mexico knows..... We have some friends who have lived on the mainland for 35 years now, in Sayulita, which is just north of Puerto Vallarta, who have put a very nice view home and property on the market because of the inability of the township to build a sewer treatment facility. For the last 20 years people have been building view houses and septic systems on the side of the hills with bad drainfields and all the sewage runs downhill under the town. For the last 5 years the whole town and surrounding areas stink 24/7 of Sewage. all kinds of different disease outbreaks have resulted because of this. The municipaity and officials in charge refuse to do anything to correct the situation. Many small towns are faced with the same horrid situation. ++C++

JESSE - 8-21-2009 at 02:37 PM

I think the article is right on on many things, but i also think its a little optimistic. Mexico has enourmous potential, that is not new, we Mexicans have known this for a long time. Yes, theres many things that have been done right under the current administration, but Mexico has yet to adress its most serious and possibly fatal problems.

1.-EDUCATION. Mexico needs to get rid of its current education system, if it ever wants to acomplish something. The current system, based on memorization, does not work.

2.-LABOR. Current labor laws need to be dumped.

3.-SOCIAL SECURITY. When 7 out of 10 pesos are spent on fat bonuses, salaries, and pensions for workers of the Seguro Social, you got a problem.

4.-OPEN UP PEMEX AND CFE. Mexico is only the second nation in the world that does not allow private investment in oil or electricity.

I believe these four issues, if resolved or improved, would result in a much more competetitive and educated society wich would lower corruption rates, and increase the overall wellfare of the nation.

wilderone - 8-21-2009 at 03:15 PM

Charles Simpson wrote the article. He is involved in real estate investment in Mexico.

Martyman - 8-21-2009 at 03:18 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Jack Swords
the most recent five-year history of its financial markets when compared to the U.S.A.'s financial markets suggests.
DOW JONES MAY 2004 10,200 MAY 2009 8,200 20% LOSS IN 5 YEARS
MEXICAN BOLSA MAY 2004 10,000 MAY 2009 23,000 130% GAIN IN 5 YEARS


Is this true about the stock market? :?:

JESSE - 8-21-2009 at 03:19 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by lencho
Quote:
Originally posted by JESSE
4.-OPEN UP PEMEX AND CFE. Mexico is only the second nation in the world that does not allow private investment in oil or electricity..

What's your gripe with CFE? Personally, I think they're doing a great job. Power is available (and cheap, for efficient consumers). I especially appreciate them during hurricane season, when those cabrones are out on the poles restoring power almost before the horizontal blowing rain has moved out of the area...

--Larry


They are heavily subsidized, we canīt afford to keep spending so much money.

k-rico - 8-21-2009 at 03:31 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Martyman
Quote:
Originally posted by Jack Swords
the most recent five-year history of its financial markets when compared to the U.S.A.'s financial markets suggests.
DOW JONES MAY 2004 10,200 MAY 2009 8,200 20% LOSS IN 5 YEARS
MEXICAN BOLSA MAY 2004 10,000 MAY 2009 23,000 130% GAIN IN 5 YEARS


Is this true about the stock market? :?:


see chart

[Edited on 8-21-2009 by k-rico]

Bajahowodd - 8-21-2009 at 04:10 PM

I think the problem with the article was that it tried to cover too much territory. As Jesse said, much of it is true. Mexico has a huge population of young people, who are, despite Jesse's complaint, receiving an education that in many ways, exceeds what kids are receiving in the US. There are problems, of course. But, as for being positioned to make great strides in the 21st Century, Mexico has much going on for it. I'll comment on two other issues. CFE. Sometimes private industry does it better; sometimes not. If you look around the US, you'll see a patchwork of public and private utilities. As for Pemex....the whole idea that it is a source of national pride and should be sacrosanct is ridiculous. It is truly one of those public entities that could be run more efficiently by private interests.

As for the third world v first world argument, much of it depends on where you are and how long you have been visiting or living in Mexico. Mexico has made unbelieveable progress in the past 20 years. I'm not sure that I could think of a country that has moved this far forward during that time.

ncampion - 8-22-2009 at 07:54 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by lencho
Quote:
Originally posted by JESSE

They are heavily subsidized...

That's for sure!

You have any idea how much of that goes to internal inefficiency and corruption (as compared to subsidizing the individual consumers' basic rate)? I haven't a clue...

--Larry


That's for double sure!

Mexico is running out of oil, not because their reserves are used up, but because they have failed to invest in exploration and new well drilling to keep pace with demand. A typical example of letting big government do something that belongs in the private sector.


.

fdt - 8-22-2009 at 08:56 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JESSE
1.-EDUCATION. Mexico needs to get rid of its current education system, if it ever wants to acomplish something. The current system, based on memorization, does not work.


It's been done "Reforma Educativa"
http://www.sep.gob.mx/wb/sep1/sep1_Bol2020807

Razonar en lugar de memorizar.

Mexican economy went off a cliff in the second three months of 2009

Russ - 8-23-2009 at 05:46 AM

I enjoyed reading the first article and hope it has some truth in it for the near future for Mexico. However rosy that article paint things I suspect this is a bit closer to reality. http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/08/22/mexico.economy/...

BajaGringo - 8-23-2009 at 10:22 AM

I agree that the lead article is probably a bit too rosy as it failed to take into account all of the challenges Mexico faces. One thing that does give me some hope though is the fact that Mexico is not mortgaged to the Chinese and others for several trillions of dollars. Let's see where we are in five years from now...

JESSE - 8-23-2009 at 12:03 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Russ
I enjoyed reading the first article and hope it has some truth in it for the near future for Mexico. However rosy that article paint things I suspect this is a bit closer to reality. http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/08/22/mexico.economy/...


The drop as almost all Swine flu related. Before the swine flu hit, we where doing pretty good.

arrowhead - 8-23-2009 at 12:45 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by BajaGringo
One thing that does give me some hope though is the fact that Mexico is not mortgaged to the Chinese and others for several trillions of dollars. Let's see where we are in five years from now...


How does that matter? Mexico has never run a huge public debt like the US, but has defaulted four times in the last century.

1914-1919
1942 and 1946, Mexico negotiated a 90 percent reduction of foreign debt principal
1982
1995

The US has never defaulted. Debt has two sides: the amount of debt and the ability to repay it. Which do you think is a safer loan? A $1 million loan to Bill Gates, the richest man in the world, or a $10,000 loan to that little indio on Avenida Revolucion who has her kids scurrying around selling chicles?

Even though the loan to Bill Gates is 100 times larger, it is 1,000 times safer.

In five or six years, Mexico will no longer be exporting oil, which is its largest source of foreign income.

k-rico - 8-23-2009 at 01:07 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by arrowhead
In five or six years, Mexico will no longer be exporting oil, which is its largest source of foreign income.


Which also is bad news for the US. Mexico is its 3rd largest supplier of crude:

The top sources of US crude oil imports for May were Canada (1.476 million barrels per day), Venezuela (1.228 million barrels per day), Mexico (1.088 million barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (0.996 million barrels per day), and Nigeria (0.552 million barrels per day).

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publicatio...

What you say may be true only if they don't find more.

Do you think they are looking?

JESSE - 8-23-2009 at 02:51 PM

The oil is there, but you need money to get it out, wich Pemex does not have. The days of no foreign investment in the Mexican oil industry are almost over.

BajaGringo - 8-23-2009 at 03:00 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by arrowhead
The US has never defaulted.


Yet.

In the current scenario of skyrocketing national debt, falling retail sales and housing values, increased unemployment and foreclosures, growing trade imbalance, diminishing tax revenue and inability to seriously compete in the global economy I am really curious to see the Houdini act that will get us out of this one. I would love to be a fly on the wall in Obama's meeting with the Chinese that was just announced. I suspect it will not be pretty.

Your crystal ball may tell a different tale. Mine is getting old...

:rolleyes:




[Edited on 8-23-2009 by BajaGringo]

Bajahowodd - 8-23-2009 at 04:05 PM

Mexico will turn a very important corner when they get over the nationalized oil thing. People old enough remember when it was an open market. I believe that Jesse is correct that there is plenty of crude available to Mexico, but they just need to bite the bullet and partner with foreign, private interests.

As for defaulting....Never going to happen. It will be a painful experience, but the dollar is going to face major devaluation. It has happened in the past. Remember the oil crisis in the 70's. Anyone can look up comparisons about what a dollar is worth today versus what it was worth in 1965. What kept the US afloat was that most of the major world currencies tanked in tandem.

BajaGringo - 8-23-2009 at 04:17 PM

And if the other major currencies tank in tandem how does that help that the country compete in a global economy? I see it as a wash...

Bajahowodd - 8-23-2009 at 04:29 PM

Quid pro quo.:?:

arrowhead - 8-23-2009 at 05:21 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by k-rico
What you say may be true only if they don't find more.

Do you think they are looking?


No, it is true even if they find more. The lead time to bring a discovered oil field into production is so long that even if they hit the mother of all oil deposits, they would still be unable to export oil over and above their domestic consumption in about 6 years. It's a done deal.

And yes they are looking, the problem is all the low-hanging fruit has been picked. They need to drill deep wells and don't have the technology. Mexico's constitution prevents it from partnering up with countries with the technology.

arrowhead - 8-23-2009 at 05:28 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by BajaGringo
I am really curious to see the Houdini act that will get us out of this one. I would love to be a fly on the wall in Obama's meeting with the Chinese that was just announced. I suspect it will not be pretty.

Your crystal ball may tell a different tale. Mine is getting old...

:rolleyes:
[Edited on 8-23-2009 by BajaGringo]


You have drifted off topic. You started out by saying that Mexico was in a better position than the US in the current economy. Mexico is the US's handmaiden. 80% of Mexico's foreign trade is with the US. On the other hand, the US has a very diversified economy. So how can Mexico be in a better position?

Think of it like the current example of GM's bankruptcy. Pretend the US is GM and Mexico is the little company that only makes one product -- fuel injection ports -- which it sells only to GM. Who is in a better position? Especially when you consider that GM is going to make more and more cars that are electric powered, not with fuel injected internal combustion engines.

BajaGringo - 8-23-2009 at 05:44 PM

I think you need to go back and reread my post. That is not what I said. I merely said that I had some hope for Mexico only because they aren't carrying trillions and trillions of dollars in debt. You picked that up and ran with it...

gnukid - 8-23-2009 at 06:34 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by BajaGringo
And if the other major currencies tank in tandem how does that help that the country compete in a global economy? I see it as a wash...


Mexico is in a far different scenario than the more developed countries such as the USA. All Nations are now suffering the global banker's cabal combined with changes in global economy and industry such as the loss of North American manufacturing of goods, computer hardware and related computer software industry.

Mexico does not have such a large debtor population owned by by Goldman Sachs like the USA, and Mexico is far more self sufficient backed by a population of people who are willing to work hard every day and adapt to economic changes.

The scenario is seemingly complex and well orchestrated, yet simplistic with an every-changing distracting and attention grabbing false travesty hyped by the controlled mass media, with much more fallout ahead as the number of defaulted home loans increases and consumer credit card default becoming an increasingly serious economic issue.

These are simplistic descriptions, though it isn't hard to see the globalists plan, the execution, nor to predict where this is going. This is not a simple economic blip, this is a worldwide economic assault that has already depleted 24 trillion from the US population under the guise of the banker's bailout.

Mexico is well suited to withstand the executed economic collapse while the USA is not by design, due to the orchestrated high mortgage debt averaging in the hundreds of thousands and increasingly high costs of US budget debt which now exceeds 400,000 per person, the National Budget interest alone can not be sustained on the budget deficit of 10 trillion, nor individual consumer debt due to massive job loss estimated at 10-30% nationwide.

The real question is whether Mexicans can avoid being trapped by similar consumer debt ploys and avoid the credit crunch by avoiding credit altogether and whether Mexicans can adapt to rapid changes, such as loss of state oil income and address required increases in infrastructure of sewer, roads, electrical and continued progress health and education.

The one thing that Mexico does have is a population of ever optimistic people who are not so quickly led by mass media nonsense. Optimism may be among the most important resources required of communities today. Mexico has an increasingly intelligent population who know how to run efficient and flexible businesses.

Mexico too is under attack where they are weak, for example, in the form of their unfailing support for nationalistic propaganda, such as the false pandemic of flu, which never existed as a national threat but may become a threat in the form of dangerous vaccines and propaganda such as strong Nationalistic and anti-foreigner attitude which is debilitating to the community economy, infrastructure and tourism.

These rapid economic changes make Baja a great place to visit for anyone who can get there with less income over the winter which in turn makes the local Baja economy more self-sufficient than cities in North America which have higher costs to survive with heating, vehicle costs and home costs.

What remains to be seen, is whether or not the general population can gel together and see the increasingly diverse neighbors as a support network, a market for creating localized economies which increase the strength of Baja's people.

To address the specifics, there are many known areas of oil yet to be tapped and increasing technology that can be used to find oil. There is far too much misinformation in regard to this resource than fact.

Mexico is already aware and addressing issues associated with modernization such as reducing use of plastics bags, improving waste water use, organizing garbage dumps and improving infrastructure of roads and government facilities.

What is critical is organizing within communities to see the commonalities of the constituents, to see the benefits of communicating together and working together to create local goods and food markets and reduce dependency on global products and plastic consumer crap.

The answers are more simple than they appear and Mexico is more well suited to adapt to changes. The question is whether Mexico's well positioned circumstance maintains support for National sovereignty and whether or not Mexicans and citizens from USA, Canada and Central American Nations can see themselves as inter-dependent, peaceful co-existing Nations of like-minded independent people who respect human rights, liberty and justice and see the people as the driving force of a Nation as opposed to powerful global monopolies and banking frauds.

gnukid - 8-23-2009 at 06:39 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by arrowhead
Quote:
Originally posted by BajaGringo
I am really curious to see the Houdini act that will get us out of this one. I would love to be a fly on the wall in Obama's meeting with the Chinese that was just announced. I suspect it will not be pretty.

Your crystal ball may tell a different tale. Mine is getting old...

:rolleyes:
[Edited on 8-23-2009 by BajaGringo]


You have drifted off topic. You started out by saying that Mexico was in a better position than the US in the current economy. Mexico is the US's handmaiden. 80% of Mexico's foreign trade is with the US. On the other hand, the US has a very diversified economy. So how can Mexico be in a better position?

Think of it like the current example of GM's bankruptcy. Pretend the US is GM and Mexico is the little company that only makes one product -- fuel injection ports -- which it sells only to GM. Who is in a better position? Especially when you consider that GM is going to make more and more cars that are electric powered, not with fuel injected internal combustion engines.


Reading the news recently, note the increasing number of articles touting US manufacturing moving to Mexico for example this story about Panasonic, or this story about Ford, or this one about aircraft.

[Edited on 8-24-2009 by gnukid]

wilderone - 8-25-2009 at 11:45 AM

"Mexico is well suited to withstand the executed economic collapse while the USA is not by design, ..."
[and]
"The question is whether Mexico's well positioned circumstance maintains support for National sovereignty and whether or not Mexicans and citizens from USA, Canada and Central American Nations can see themselves as inter-dependent, peaceful co-existing Nations of like-minded independent people who respect human rights, liberty and justice and see the people as the driving force of a Nation"

Therein lies the dichotomy. The Americas ARE inter-dependent (NAFTA, maquilladores, oil, PPP, shipping ports, tourism), and when the US falters, so will Mexico. It is a fact that Mexico's GNP is largely dependent on cash remittances from the US and tourism. Mexican banks are now feeling the affects of a decreased flow of those funds and diminished tourism. Swine flu effect would be transitory - but the lack of discretionary funds for a good time across the border will not see relief any time soon. In the meantime, businesses will close. Mexico is now experiencing pressure from returning emigrants and an influx of Central American immigrants - what is the effect of this unprecedented phenomenon? And Mexico is uniquely crippled by a drug war of huge proportions, albeit the USA's involvement within its borders suffers as well. The Mexican civil war with the drug cartels will erode good communities, tax federal budgets and available manpower, thus preventing modern, 21st century growth in some regions. The results of many years of escalating violence and corruption remain to be seen. Mexico's charms have disintegrated in its attempt to become like a Miami, or in its shameful treatment of its indigenous in the entire eastern region of the country - their enduring poverty does not reflect well on a government whose role extends to all its citizens. Mexico's allegiance to human rights, liberty and justice which, in turn, will foster a climate for its self-sufficient citizenry to better themselves, has a long way to go.

arrowhead - 8-25-2009 at 12:31 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid
Reading the news recently, note the increasing number of articles touting US manufacturing moving to Mexico...


Selectively reading the news is not the same as researching and understanding the facts on the ground. Now for a dose of reality:
Quote:

http://www.frontera.info/EdicionEnLinea/Notas/Noticias/25082...

Foreign investment in Baja declined by 67.9% in the first half of 2009, compared to 2008 and is at the lowest rate in 11 years.
Quote:
http://www.frontera.info/EdicionEnLinea/Notas/Nacional/25082...

In the second quarter of 2009 remittances of Mexicans aboad to Mexico declined at a 17.9% annual rate.


Quote:
http://www.frontera.info/EdicionEnLinea/Notas/Nacional/25082...

From the beginning of 2009, up to August 21, 2009, Mexico's foreign reserves have declined $12.278 billion dollars, a drop of 14% since the beginning of the year.

gnukid - 8-25-2009 at 01:06 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by wilderone
"Mexico is well suited to withstand the executed economic collapse while the USA is not by design, ..."
[and]
"The question is whether Mexico's well positioned circumstance maintains support for National sovereignty and whether or not Mexicans and citizens from USA, Canada and Central American Nations can see themselves as inter-dependent, peaceful co-existing Nations of like-minded independent people who respect human rights, liberty and justice and see the people as the driving force of a Nation"

Therein lies the dichotomy. The Americas ARE inter-dependent (NAFTA, maquilladores, oil, PPP, shipping ports, tourism), and when the US falters, so will Mexico. It is a fact that Mexico's GNP is largely dependent on cash remittances from the US and tourism. Mexican banks are now feeling the affects of a decreased flow of those funds and diminished tourism. Swine flu effect would be transitory - but the lack of discretionary funds for a good time across the border will not see relief any time soon. In the meantime, businesses will close. Mexico is now experiencing pressure from returning emigrants and an influx of Central American immigrants - what is the effect of this unprecedented phenomenon? And Mexico is uniquely crippled by a drug war of huge proportions, albeit the USA's involvement within its borders suffers as well. The Mexican civil war with the drug cartels will erode good communities, tax federal budgets and available manpower, thus preventing modern, 21st century growth in some regions. The results of many years of escalating violence and corruption remain to be seen. Mexico's charms have disintegrated in its attempt to become like a Miami, or in its shameful treatment of its indigenous in the entire eastern region of the country - their enduring poverty does not reflect well on a government whose role extends to all its citizens. Mexico's allegiance to human rights, liberty and justice which, in turn, will foster a climate for its self-sufficient citizenry to better themselves, has a long way to go.



Here are two scenarios to consider:

1) A US American lives in LA and loses his/her job and can not pay mortgage or gas or buy groceries. In a matter of an instant the person is starving with no ability to travel or sustain themselves while increasing debt, legal issues, and presumably incurring stress and resulting health problems.

2) A Mexican who lives in rural Baja loses his/her job. They have no mortgage nor need for a car, they have a home and family nearby, they can rely on each other for support, they can farm, fish, build things with natural resources of stone and carizo and palms, and they can build a sustaining existence without incurring more debt or relying on social welfare.

Now, its not much help to compare these scenarios except it helps to understand the orchestrated problem with the USA financial gaming system of which few benefit and many suffer while the Mexican system does not have these weaknesses it is quite difficult in Mexico to grow a business beyond the simplest form due to high costs, debilitating corruption and labor laws.

The Mexican Drug cartels are too profitable to go away easily. Mexico's economy is based on the diminishing Oil, US remittances and the drug cartel profits. Oil is almost gone, remittances are nearly gone and Drug profits remain. However these changing circumstances present opportunity for new products.

In regard to indigenous peoples, they have been oppressed and discriminated against however their constitution is strong and they are as a whole industrious, it is this character which may be the key to fomenting new businesses, based on skills such as handwork, textiles, food, etc...

US-Mexican tariffs hurt Mexico greatly making exports expensive to the USA. If the USA would reduce tariffs and encourage and allow local goods to be sold across the border it would benefit both countries and allow manufacturing to return to the USA and Mexico and allow our countries the opportunity to compete with other nations and make a comeback.

Truly the circumstances which negatively affect both of us are largely superficial and created by the US Administration in an apparent orchestrated attempt to hurt the people, starve the populations and create a region of conflict and depression which allows the wealthy to aggregate land and business resources further creating monopolistic corporations and greater separation of poor versus wealthy.

There is a solution, simply do not participate in the global cabal, work with your local community to foment businesses, markets, reduce costs, taxes and tariffs, speak out against the cabal and work for healthy, supportive and divers local communities. The solution is a mindset and starts by turning off the Television programming you to believe you are too weak or incapable of local empowerment.

Global Corporatism is not your friend-while your neighbor regardless of your differences is someone you need to work with and depend upon. Consider making a conscience to purchase local products.

Human rights begin with each person, it is possible to refuse to accept poor treatment of people by Government sponsored militias and demand respect for Human rights. In fact to fail to do so is a human failure. To fail to speak out against US renditions and torture and demand respect for civil rights is a serious step toward acceptance of broad loss of human rights.

Populations are not a threat to the world, while the out of control military industrial complex is a threat to populations. Its quite a shock to know that the USA is committing genocide in Iraq while few even speak of the issue, indiscriminate use of drones to attack and kill innocents in areas such as Pakistan, remove the personal aspects of war that require a man to personally kill another and violent TV, movies and video games condition all of us that its ok to kill with computers.

This situation is easily changed by simply changing your mindset, toward loving and accepting your friends and neighbors, go outside and smile, participate in community events and industry and work together toward improving your community and refuse to support or participate in the Global Cabal.

Baja and the indigenous people have much to teach us about these solutions, working and living together which is a requirement to our survival.

Cypress - 8-25-2009 at 01:11 PM

Guess this all means that Mexico's oil resources will be drying-up sooner than expected. All those Pemex stations will turn into taco stands and burros will be the transportation of choice.:lol: Nothing like a good dose of gloom and doom to get you your sweat glands to kick in.:biggrin:

gnukid - 8-25-2009 at 01:25 PM

I believe it was Presidente Fox who said Baja's greatest resource is is vast coastline. The Pacific ocean and the Sea of Cortez provide food, beauty and positive energy that can help support the populations regardless of the doom and gloom. Supplement seafood with spirulina, algae, seaweed and you have a complete and sustaining diet. Baja is fine, the people simply need to transport their goods between regions which is why they call them Baja Nomads!

The economy can adjust to create new goods and markets if allowed to do so. The remaining issue/problem of the drug cartels is largely based on a artificial mindset that either you need to buy drugs or that you need to fight drugs, both are complete BS. The more that you educate the population that neither are required, that alternatives exist, the more that we free ourselves of this massive burden.

Funny how a good cup of tea and a nice fresh Baja meal make this all more clear.

OLIGUACOMOLE - 8-25-2009 at 05:45 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by lencho
Quote:
Originally posted by JESSE
4.-OPEN UP PEMEX AND CFE. Mexico is only the second nation in the world that does not allow private investment in oil or electricity..

What's your gripe with CFE? Personally, I think they're doing a great job. Power is available (and cheap, for efficient consumers). I especially appreciate them during hurricane season, when those cabrones are out on the poles restoring power almost before the horizontal blowing rain has moved out of the area...

--Larry

Do you know that if you work for CFE you get free electricity? Do you know when you retire you get free electricity for life?
If you would like to know who works for CFE notice the houses that are all lit up with lights at Christmas! Right nest to the others that are trying to pay their electric bill.
With the union CFE is one of the most secure jobs one can have in Mexico.

David K - 8-26-2009 at 07:18 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by gnukid
I believe it was Presidente Fox who said Baja's greatest resource is is vast coastline. The Pacific ocean and the Sea of Cortez provide food, beauty and positive energy that can help support the populations regardless of the doom and gloom. Supplement seafood with spirulina, algae, seaweed and you have a complete and sustaining diet. Baja is fine, the people simply need to transport their goods between regions which is why they call them Baja Nomads!

The economy can adjust to create new goods and markets if allowed to do so. The remaining issue/problem of the drug cartels is largely based on a artificial mindset that either you need to buy drugs or that you need to fight drugs, both are complete BS. The more that you educate the population that neither are required, that alternatives exist, the more that we free ourselves of this massive burden.

Funny how a good cup of tea and a nice fresh Baja meal make this all more clear.


THIS IS one of the most intelligent posts I have seen!:light::lol:

805gregg - 8-26-2009 at 08:39 AM

Nobody seems to notice that Mexicos largest source of income is money sent south by Mexicans in the US. If the US economy goes down so does Mexicos income.

Eugenio - 8-26-2009 at 09:40 AM

I've been waiting for Mexico to get it's act together for over 40 years. There have been hundreds articles like this over the years. They all make it seem like Mexico is "poised" to make advances in it's economy/quality of life that will benefit it's people - but things never seem to pan out.

I've become convinced that the only way to judge things in Mexico is to look at the past and present.

And don't believe anybody's eyes except your own.

It is what it is. (same probably goes for any country)