BajaNomad - Slight chance of another storm

Slight chance of another storm

Russ - 9-14-2009 at 05:41 AM

I don't want to make anyone nervous. This is the season that storms develop south of us so this is probably a non event. I don't think there is even a storm number on this yet. But just to be sure it won't develop I'll mention it.
http://www.eebmike.com/
Now we can get back to cleanup and helping others. Wish I had a fish report but the few boats that have gone out have not caught anything I've heard about. And it is getting real close to tuna time here. Water has cooled some too. It was cool enough early this morning I turned the fan off :yes:

However the insects are thick. At least to those of us they seem to like. Keep your spirits up it's getting a little better every day.
And one last thought, THANK YOU to all those helper bees out there that are doing so much to help those in need!
Edit: I wish I could spell! Or at least proof read for mistakes the first time :no:

[Edited on 9-14-2009 by Russ]

Bob and Susan - 9-14-2009 at 05:59 AM

cross you fingers...

new1.jpg - 24kB

wessongroup - 9-14-2009 at 06:49 AM

Russ,

What are your numbers, always like your weather station quick "view" into your world first hand

Good to hear your still "kickin", best luck to all getting by down there

woody with a view - 9-14-2009 at 06:52 AM

looks like this one won't be like the last. it'll stay offshore and fall apart off the vizcaino in a week.

i hope.... models are funny after 90 hours out!

shari - 9-14-2009 at 07:14 AM

nice to hear from you Russ and glad things are plodding along there...remember Woody's first post about Jimena??? I sure do...you sure were right on the money woodman.
So nice to have our temps back down in the high 70's and low 80"s....ahhhh

DENNIS - 9-14-2009 at 07:51 AM

Another site:

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

Dianamo - 9-14-2009 at 08:10 AM

Here is a link which shows the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic, from the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac

Russ - 9-14-2009 at 08:37 AM

We had a 74º morning on Fri. But since it's been 80º and low 90's as a high but the humidity soared to 80 - 90% heat index was 124º yesterday. No breeze until after 1PM. Heat index 99º this morning at 9:30 & not a breath of wind. Can't imagine having to work in this climate without water or electricity means no showers or cleaning the muck off you and no fan to help cool you off. Our road gets better by the day so if anyone wants a break I've got a shower and fans and probably fewer bugs. I could put up of couple people over night also. My thoughts are with you.

Storms

wessongroup - 9-14-2009 at 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Russ
We had a 74º morning on Fri. But since it's been 80º and low 90's as a high but the humidity soared to 80 - 90% heat index was 124º yesterday. No breeze until after 1PM. Heat index 99º this morning at 9:30 & not a breath of wind. Can't imagine having to work in this climate without water or electricity means no showers or cleaning the muck off you and no fan to help cool you off. Our road gets better by the day so if anyone wants a break I've got a shower and fans and probably fewer bugs. I could put up of couple people over night also. My thoughts are with you.

Russ, that sounds pretty brutal... can't think of a thing to say, but hang in there... think you have been in situations much like this before... only difference someone was shooting

Was looking at weather coming through the Baja... found this link with storm tracks for the past 50 years.

http://wapedia.mobi/en/List_of_Baja_California_Peninsula_hur...

Not sure what help it would be, but one can see what has happen in the past years

Cypress - 9-14-2009 at 01:25 PM

Russ, It's tuff, been thru the whole drill a time or two. No water or power, 90+ degree temps. The aftermath of more storms than I can remember. Had afternoon thunderstorms, you could get a shower compliments of mother nature. Don't have too many afternoon thunderstorms down in Baja. The high humidity was a major factor. Good luck. Keep us posted.

Russ - 9-15-2009 at 05:41 AM

I copied & pasted this report.

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA REMAIN DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."

Here's what the satellite looks like:

#2 storm? 9:15:09.jpg - 45kB

DianaT - 9-15-2009 at 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by woody in ob
looks like this one won't be like the last. it'll stay offshore and fall apart off the vizcaino in a week.

i hope.... models are funny after 90 hours out!

Do hope you are correct.

comitan - 9-15-2009 at 09:28 AM

It looks as of now the outer bands are hitting Cabo.

DENNIS - 9-15-2009 at 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by comitan
It looks as of now the outer bands are hitting Cabo.

On this site, center right, click on "Clouds" ON. It's a pretty good picture.

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

bill erhardt - 9-16-2009 at 06:20 AM

Looks like this system has graduated to Tropical Depression status.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200916_5day....

woody with a view - 9-16-2009 at 04:27 PM

Marty seems to be behaving.....

Russ - 9-16-2009 at 04:52 PM

I like this prediction but I ain't believing nott'n after the last one til it actually makes the turn.

Marty 1PM 9:16:09.jpg - 46kB

Bajahowodd - 9-16-2009 at 04:56 PM

Maybe Marty has luau tickets. :yes:

[Edited on 9-16-2009 by Bajahowodd]

shari - 9-16-2009 at 05:17 PM

geezo...in the morning all the models said Marty was going west young storm....now look at this afternoons models...yuck...like russ says...I'll believe it when it makes the turn left but will continue to watch it...dang...just took the plywood down too.

ep200916_model.gif - 33kB

Marty?

Posada-BushPilot - 9-16-2009 at 06:11 PM

We can't have another Marty, we already had a Marty, I think in 03.

EngineerMike - 9-16-2009 at 06:25 PM

Marty never strikes twice in the same place :lol:

(at least I hope a good laugh is in order

)

Dianamo - 9-17-2009 at 07:44 AM

What's the procedure for naming storms? Was the previous storm Marti...with an "i"?

Also, note the new storm hugging the west coast of MX that is forecast to disappear. I hope so!

arrowhead - 9-17-2009 at 10:59 AM

Looks like yet another tropical depression is going to spin up into a storm right behind Marty. It's in a very risky place.

DENNIS - 9-17-2009 at 11:22 AM

Don't forget to turn the clouds ON. Center right of picture.

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

comitan - 9-17-2009 at 03:10 PM

ABPZ20 KNHC 171741
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARTY...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Diver - 9-17-2009 at 03:14 PM

Still far away but ....

model.gif - 29kB

DianaT - 9-17-2009 at 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Diver
Still far away but ....

Some of those computer models can drive one crazy. With Jimena, not only did the actual report change every 4 hours, so did the computer models----

Guess these storms have real minds of their own and do what they want and reserve the right to change with no warning.

Sure hope this heads west!

Diane

woody with a view - 9-17-2009 at 04:59 PM

look out hawaii....

comitan - 9-17-2009 at 05:08 PM

Look out La Paz, we have a whole system of clouds from Marty, it really looks like the whole system is coming this way, no they couldn't be wrong. :light:

arrowhead - 9-17-2009 at 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Diver
Still far away but ....

Wow! Look at the 8PM models. They all just converged and place the storm over Baja in 48 hours!

Russ - 9-17-2009 at 07:46 PM

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Crusoe - 9-17-2009 at 07:50 PM

OVER BAJA IN 48 HRS???????? WTF

vandenberg - 9-17-2009 at 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by jdtrotter
Guess these storms have real minds of their own and do what they want and reserve the right to change with no warning.
Diane

Probably the reason that for a long time they all had only female names. :biggrin:

shari - 9-18-2009 at 07:35 AM

here is this mornings "Model of the Hour" dont much like the looks of it at all....but hey...dont like it?...wait till the next one! we might get rid of our skanky palapa yet! tee hee

[Edited on 9-18-2009 by shari]

ep200998_model.gif - 32kB

Russ - 9-18-2009 at 02:01 PM

I hope this is as crazy as it sounds... but I just watched the satellite loop and what I think I'm seeing appears that Marty has broken up and is heading back to Baja. God, I hope I'm delusional!

[Edited on 9-18-2009 by Russ]

Marty 9:18:09??.jpg - 47kB

DENNIS - 9-18-2009 at 02:09 PM

Still headed WNW at 7mph.

Does seem to have enlarged and become more organized. Let's wait and see.
----------------

Don't forget to turn on the clouds, center right:

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

[Edited on 9-18-2009 by DENNIS]

Russ - 9-18-2009 at 02:27 PM

Dennis, watch the animation about the 5th frame down.. http://www.eebmike.com/ ~~ or http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/sloop-wv.html

[Edited on 9-18-2009 by Russ]

comitan - 9-18-2009 at 04:46 PM

They say Marty is going to go west, with all the clouds still over us and more coming I still think its going to breakup over La Paz. Have a couple more days before I worry about the next one, still have everything prepared.

HaciendaCerritos - 9-18-2009 at 05:18 PM

Here at Los Cerritos you couldn't prove it by us that Marty is heading West. The wind is up and the ocean is "angry" as they say here. Our famous "Palapa at the pool" is swaying and I may need to tie it down again.

Very weird weather.

HaciendaCerritos - 9-18-2009 at 05:27 PM

You know what, you may be right about it splitting - this looks like "2 eyed Marty" to me with one of those eyes heading EAST!

Dianamo - 9-19-2009 at 08:03 AM

I still don't like the looks of the one behind Marty, 48-hour formation potential is > 50%.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac

fyi, 2003 names are the same at 2009

Dianamo - 9-19-2009 at 09:18 AM

I didn't know they used the same names, but the 2003 hurricane was named "Marty", same spelling. Here's a link to the info on Wiki, (check out the photo!)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Marty_(2003)

Six name lists are used in rotation. Thus, the 2009 list will be used again in 2015 and the reason 2003 names are the same as 2009. The next name storm will by Nora....per the National Hurricane Center at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

DianaT - 9-19-2009 at 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dianamo
I still don't like the looks of the one behind Marty, 48-hour formation potential is > 50%.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac

We will keep hoping for the other 50% that it does not develop.

Interesting about the names, thanks for the link---so when the next one is named, it should be Nora.