BajaNomad

TS Patricia

tehag - 10-11-2009 at 09:45 PM

More rain coming, at least. This one is to watch for trouble. It's over some pretty warm water still and could spin up quickly into a real storm.

pangamadness - 10-11-2009 at 09:47 PM

I think your assessment is pretty good. I could be in for some trouble, driving down soon.

landyacht318 - 10-11-2009 at 10:37 PM

The 11 pm models of forecast intensity have nearly doubled compared to the 8 pm forecast.

Shows the uncertainty of new tropical systems.

Hope this one is only a swell maker.

Bob and Susan - 10-12-2009 at 06:22 AM

clouds this mornibg here on the bay

pat.jpg - 15kB

comitan - 10-12-2009 at 06:56 AM

In La Paz light rain on & off all night.

Russ - 10-12-2009 at 07:18 AM

I don't like being in the States when bad things are brewing!

TS~ Monday~10:12:09.jpg - 46kB

HaciendaCerritos - 10-12-2009 at 08:30 AM

Overcast, breezy and light sprinkles coming and going here at Los Cerritos.
May be time to tie that darned pool palapa again!
I love the cool weather, it sure beats the heat we've had.
--Kathy

bajajudy - 10-12-2009 at 09:01 AM

It has been raining for two days here in San Jose del Cabo and is pouring right now. Good straight down rain with very little wind...NICE:tumble:
So far the road has held but if this keeps up all day, we over here on the La Playa side of the arroyo will probably be cut off from town.
75 and rain and dark with the promise of more rain to come

BFS - 10-12-2009 at 09:04 AM

No Wind Judy?
Hmmmm i guess i better get over to the bocana NOW
Sheesh I was just there yesterday, but I guess back to back trips is not necessarily a bad thing.

Aq

vandenberg - 10-12-2009 at 09:27 AM

This guy is usually spot-on:




Posted by: JeffMasters, 6:58 AM MDT on October 12, 2009

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Patricia is gathering strength, and should bring at least tropical storm force winds to Mexico's Baja Peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Latest satellite loops of Patricia show that the storm has developed an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. Patricia is in an environment of low wind shear (5 - 10 knots) and warm sea surface temperatures (29°C), and these conditions are expected to change little over the next 48 hours. This may give Patricia enough time to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, as predicted by the latest 2am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models. While most of the computer models indicate that Patricia will turn to the west out to sea Wednesday as the storm makes its closest approach to Baja, the HWRF model predicts the storm will grow large and strong enough to be influenced by a trough of low pressure to the north, and track into the Gulf of California and make landfall in mainland Mexico.

woody with a view - 10-12-2009 at 09:30 AM

i'm with that guy! up the gulf...

HaciendaCerritos - 10-12-2009 at 10:19 AM

It's pouring now here at Los Cerritos. Very wet and mucky. Light breeze.

DianaT - 10-12-2009 at 10:24 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by vandenberg
This guy is usually spot-on:




Posted by: JeffMasters, 6:58 AM MDT on October 12, 2009

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Patricia is gathering strength, and should bring at least tropical storm force winds to Mexico's Baja Peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Latest satellite loops of Patricia show that the storm has developed an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. Patricia is in an environment of low wind shear (5 - 10 knots) and warm sea surface temperatures (29°C), and these conditions are expected to change little over the next 48 hours. This may give Patricia enough time to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, as predicted by the latest 2am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models. While most of the computer models indicate that Patricia will turn to the west out to sea Wednesday as the storm makes its closest approach to Baja, the HWRF model predicts the storm will grow large and strong enough to be influenced by a trough of low pressure to the north, and track into the Gulf of California and make landfall in mainland Mexico.


I do hope he is wrong this time!

bajajudy - 10-12-2009 at 12:13 PM

AQ
rough and confused seas this morning.
While I was typing "very little wind", a gust snapped a palm frond off one of our Washingtonias

woody with a view - 10-12-2009 at 12:29 PM

he'll be happy to read this when he gets back!!!!

bajajudy - 10-12-2009 at 02:07 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by bajajudy
AQ
rough and confused seas this morning.
While I was typing "very little wind", a gust snapped a palm frond off one of our Washingtonias


WEIRD
I posted this just after the other. I wonder why the delay
sorry...aq
Woody:P

woody with a view - 10-12-2009 at 02:10 PM

:Paccepted!

BajaWarrior - 10-12-2009 at 03:40 PM



Hopefully it will move west sooner than later...

[Edited on 10-13-2009 by BajaWarrior]

vandenberg - 10-12-2009 at 08:39 PM

Thusfar this storm has not heeded the left turn sign.
Especially noticable on the www.eebmike.com site



[Edited on 10-13-2009 by vandenberg]

patricia [].gif - 47kB

HaciendaCerritos - 10-12-2009 at 08:52 PM

I agree Vandenberg. I've been keeping an eye on this storm for obvious reasons and it sure looks like it is edging towards the SOC on eebmikes page.
Not much happening here at Los Cerritos. No rain right now, little wind. I guess we'll know more in the am.

BajaBruno - 10-12-2009 at 10:53 PM

It's very hard to see the counterclockwise rotation of this storm, so it's hard to know where the center is. There is certainly a lot of convection being blown to the east, but that may not represent the center of the storm.

The jury is still out on this one, but I'm not seeing that left turn, either....

Tomol - 10-13-2009 at 06:47 AM

It's not expected to make a left turn until sometime Wednesday.

shari - 10-13-2009 at 06:51 AM

the 2:00 am report says Pat is heading North...no more westerly motion. sure looks like up the gulf alley...but we all know now how these babies can change their minds.
sunny skies, light wind from the NW here this morning...lobsters being hauled in and fishermen readying their rapalas.

vandenberg - 10-13-2009 at 08:53 AM

On the latest eebmike sat pic it's rapidly declining in intensity.

Maybe good news:?:

David K - 10-13-2009 at 08:57 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by bajajudy
Quote:
Originally posted by bajajudy
AQ
rough and confused seas this morning.
While I was typing "very little wind", a gust snapped a palm frond off one of our Washingtonias


WEIRD
I posted this just after the other. I wonder why the delay
sorry...aq
Woody:P


How's it looking in San Jose del Cabo today, Judy?

bajajudy - 10-13-2009 at 09:02 AM

Woke up to a nice steady rain.
Very dark right now
NO wind
Went for our walk by the estuary, which is brown with runoff water, but opted not to swim. Lotas aguas malas washed up and a dead turtle:no:

David K - 10-13-2009 at 09:05 AM

Thank you... and stay dry!

BooJumMan - 10-13-2009 at 01:27 PM

Hows the surf been at the Estuary Baja Judy?

woody with a view - 10-13-2009 at 01:44 PM

don't worry about Patricia. keep your eyes and antennae pointed southward around this friday!!!


:o

Tomas Tierra - 10-13-2009 at 02:04 PM

Hurricane Woody??

mulegemichael - 10-13-2009 at 02:05 PM

what's the insinuation, woody?....ANOTHER one?

DENNIS - 10-13-2009 at 02:13 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by mulegemichael
what's the insinuation, woody?....ANOTHER one?



Nothing out there at this time.

Be sure to turn on the clouds, middle right:

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

mulegemichael - 10-13-2009 at 02:24 PM

whew!

HaciendaCerritos - 10-13-2009 at 02:26 PM

At eebmike.com in the colored map it looks like the whole thing has come apart. But look very closely at the Floater-Visible Loop and at the very end of the loop you can see the eye and it looks like it just took a turn to the North-Northwest.

We're not out of the woods yet.
Sunshine here at Los Cerritos with clouds in the periphery and wind is up coming out of the North to North west. No rain today - we got plenty yesterday.

bajajudy - 10-13-2009 at 02:39 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by BooJumMan
Hows the surf been at the Estuary Baja Judy?

Not much happening this morning...very disorganized, nothing to ride.

As of right now Patricia is actually SE of me.

For a better view go to
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Click on Patricia and then double click on the sat pic



[Edited on 10-13-2009 by bajajudy]

[Edited on 10-13-2009 by bajajudy]

PATRICIA.45kts-1000mb-219N-1089W.jpg - 46kB

bajajudy - 10-13-2009 at 02:52 PM

Woody
R U on your way?:biggrin:

HaciendaCerritos - 10-13-2009 at 03:18 PM

Here ya go


comitan - 10-13-2009 at 03:20 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

I think Woodys looking at the Blob just south of us.

[Edited on 10-13-2009 by comitan]

BFS - 10-13-2009 at 04:20 PM

hey wait a minute I just surfed the rock and it was pumping grande style!
Sideshore in a nice way.
Horizon black as can be, but plenty of swell and 2 guys out.
The estuary is out of control, I checked that first. A few spongers getting slapped around.

Aq

BFS - 10-13-2009 at 04:29 PM

It just dawned on me that Judy is on the other side of the estuary maybe? is that right?
I check the surf by the Prez in that little cul de sac.
Hey Judy your wind report was late by about 18 hours but I went anyway. Only made it half way though as one of those hidden little arroyos that come to life with heavy rain was offshore and plenty fun.
I did go back today again (I ran out of roof tiles and bought them in SJD so had yet another excuse) so have made 3 Cabo runs in a row. Sheesh. Gotta love storms. oops did I say that?

Aq

woody with a view - 10-13-2009 at 04:47 PM

watch that blob!

shari - 10-13-2009 at 04:52 PM

woody.....paleeeeeease....dont say that...YOU are the nomad that warned everyone first about Jimena....geezo...hope you are on drugs for this one.