BajaNomad - Anyone optimistic about next year business wise in Baja.

Anyone optimistic about next year business wise in Baja.

surebought - 12-2-2009 at 08:01 AM

I have heard all the negatives. The Toll Road is too expensive. The Forclosures haven't even hit the hardest yet as people in the US continue to lose their jobs. More Troops into Afganistan will further weaken the economy(Something about Guns and Butter economic theories and not raising Taxes.) The continued Drug war in Tijuana. Mexico used to be cheap. I hear it all the time. I am glad I am not in the Restaurant or Real Estate Business. But the nomads seem to have different sort of take on everything and I was hoping to hear a few theories about things maybe turning positive. 2009 was my worst year ever in Business in Mexico. I know there is a strong possibility that I am in for more of the same. I know of at least ten stores on the tourist Street of Ensenada that are closing at the end of December. I really have to decide whether I should be one of them and close too. Is there anybody out there with anything positive to say about next year?

Don Alley - 12-2-2009 at 08:37 AM

Loreto: It's A Boom Town?!

Big new hotel just opened. New resort will open next fall. Work has just begun on a new central plaza and the main tourist avenue is being redone. FONATUR has a big development underway just south of Colonia Zaragosa, including a new section of Malecon. Yesterday they had a pile of new outboards-Mercs, Yamahas and Hondas-at the marina for local pangeros. Lots of big new SUVs, including Escalades, Navigators and Hummers are cruising the streets.

Somebody must be optimistic.

Oh, and the sound truck is driving through town announcing a big discount for those who pay their property tax early, to "help the municipality's economy." :biggrin:

Seriously, we were oversold and overhyped here, but there is still potential for modest economic activity befitting a small town. Tourism in BCS is not as dependent in bargain prices, and so far crime and drugs are not likely to be an issue with visitors. The best things that could happen are for airlines to provide more affordable flights, for people to keep the beaches and mountains accessible to the public, and to avoid massive big scale projects that shut off access and bring the kind of big city problems that have hurt tourism up north.

My guess is that by the end of 2010, we'll have a couple more flights a week into Loreto and a slightly improved tourism economy, but it will take several years of modest improvement to support the current overbuilt number of tourism related businesses we have.

DENNIS - 12-2-2009 at 08:39 AM

Perhaps the businesses on Lopez Mateos should forget catering to a thinning tourist consumer base and direct their marketing towards the increasing local economy. Look at WalMart and the other big stores on HWY 1. They're are buzzing with patrons. There's money to be made in Ensenada without hoping for a returning tourism industry. It's gone and probably won't be returning any time soon.
One thing that will work against any growth of business in that area is the lack of parking. The city planners have dug their own grave on this issue.

David....You told me an interesting story about a good portion of your clientele. Interesting from a cultural, as well as business standpoint. If you're so inclined, I'll let you tell it.

arrowhead - 12-2-2009 at 08:50 AM

2010 will be just as bad as 2009, if not worse. This goes for the US and Mexico, whose economies are intertwined. The US has been printing and spending money it doesn't have for about a year now and the dollar is devaluing. At some point in 2010, the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates to slow inflation. This will put the kaboosh on whatever weak growth all that spending started (which was not much). Also, the worst of the real estate foreclosures has yet to hit.

monoloco - 12-2-2009 at 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by arrowhead
2010 will be just as bad as 2009, if not worse. This goes for the US and Mexico, whose economies are intertwined. The US has been printing and spending money it doesn't have for about a year now and the dollar is devaluing. At some point in 2010, the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates to slow inflation. This will put the kaboosh on whatever weak growth all that spending started (which was not much). Also, the worst of the real estate foreclosures has yet to hit.

They have been printing and spending money they didn't have for about a hundred years.

k-rico - 12-2-2009 at 09:39 AM

Plus the added delays at the border, especially the new southbound delays, which I think will be increasing, and tougher northbound ID requirements have/will further diminish the casual day trips to Ensenada.

I've recently moved my PO Box to San Ysidro so I can walk across to get mail and no longer shop on a regular basis in San Diego because of the southbound wait. A TJ radio station reported a 3 hour wait southbound the day after Thanksgiving in the afternoon. Shoppers and workers.

DENNIS is right, catering to locals is the way to go. That business model seems to be working. Sears just opened a new store in TJ and that company knows a thing or two about retailing.

[Edited on 12-2-2009 by k-rico]

fdt - 12-2-2009 at 09:46 AM

I am more than confident that 2010 will be a year of economic growth. We do need to reinvent ourselves, the world has changed.

bajajudy - 12-2-2009 at 10:12 AM

Our business has been steadily improving over the last month. We can only hope that this trend will continue.
Most of the people that I have talked to here are optimistic about this season. It would be hard for it to be worse than this summer so the only way is up!
Now if we could just get that darned Almanac in stock, we would be doing much better.

BajaGringo - 12-2-2009 at 10:13 AM

And it continues to evolve my friend. I sense that we have even more changes in store for 2010. My crystal ball tells me so...

:cool:

Bajahowodd - 12-2-2009 at 11:26 AM

I believe that the US economy is not the overriding factor against better times in Baja. After all, Outside of the major resorts, Mexico does offer great value for the casual traveler. I just happened to notice that current airfare to Kauai is almost $500 round trip.

I think the drug crime issue looms as the biggest impediment to tourism growth in Northern Baja. Follow that with the increased hassle factor crossing the border both ways. I've mentioned before that US citizens have a surprisingly low rate of passport ownership. That really cuts into the extemporaneous trips for c-cktails and dinner.

Down South, they are more insulated. First, places such as Los Cabos and La Paz are basically off the radar when it comes to the crime issue. Second, mostly in the Los Cabos area, time shares drive the tourism. An awful lot of folks have invested their money and feel compelled to get some form of return on that investment. So they go there for that week or two.

As for reinventing downtown Ensenada, I think that train already left the station. The economic center of gravity for locals shifted out to the big box stores on the highway. Wide assortment of merchandise, competitive prices and tons of free parking. Downtown's bet shot is to advertise hotel and restaurant packages, stage festivals Etc.

And BTW, Sears Mexico is one of Sr. Slim's holdings.

David...surebought

Dave - 12-2-2009 at 12:09 PM

Please check your U2U.

JESSE - 12-2-2009 at 12:13 PM

Cabo, just like Vegas, has seen its best and will now settle into something more value oriented.

Tijuana, will continue its bad economy due to the crime element.

Loreto, same as always.

La Paz, will be one of the few cities in Mexico with decent growth.

Mulege, bad bad bad.

Rosarito, a little improvement.

Ensenada, a little improvement as well.

Woooosh - 12-2-2009 at 12:45 PM

Rosarito has more closed storefronts than ever. The number of for-sale and for-rent signs has never been higher. Even one of the huge full-block spring break nightclubs has recently closed- with ugly plywood on all the doors and windows. I have seen my favorite local hardware store go belly-up because of the new Home Depot. As in the USA, a blighted neighborhood just can't attract new business or customers.

Even if you can find a product for the locals market, the biggest challenge I see is in cash handling. I can't figure out a safe way to get the cash from the cash register to the bank. And on that subject- almost every Oxxo store has been held up recently.

It may get better- but not soon, and never in December. Every crook is busy stealing what they can so their kids can have something for Christmas here.

Isn't that What They Are there For?

Bajahowodd - 12-2-2009 at 12:55 PM

And on that subject- almost every Oxxo store has been held up recently.

DENNIS - 12-2-2009 at 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajahowodd
And on that subject- almost every Oxxo store has been held up recently.

I just went to Smart and Final, Ens, and they held me up. Where do they come off charging nine bucks for a jar of Skippy PB. That's 50% over US.

Bajahowodd - 12-2-2009 at 03:10 PM

That's kinda funny. Smart and Final Mexico is a joint venture with Calimax. What do they charge for PB at your store on the Bufadora turnoff?

toneart - 12-2-2009 at 03:48 PM

I wish I could offer some optimism, David, but my Baja perspective is sunk in Mulege.

Also, as I said in another string, and in Off Topic, I think last night Obama just sank the U.S. into an economic downward spiral from which we will probably not recover in our lifetimes.

Regarding pharmaceuticals, I now get mine...all generic, from India by way of Canada. I have dropped Medicare Part D. My insurance carrier has doubled the premiums in the three years of the plan's existence. The cost of my copays have risen beyond reason too. That plan was an AARP/Republican/Bush boondoggle...a giveaway to the insurance/big pharma industries and another reason to warrant a single payer, public option included in Healthcare Reform. I have also dropped my membership in AARP too. They are insurance pimps.

Medicare has been great! But I have a Medigap (insurance) through AARP to cover the 20% that Medicare doesn't cover. They have raised their premiums to $160.00 per month for me. The insurance and pharmaceutical companies have demonstrated their greed. That is what they do!

Is Mexico subject to U.S. drug patent law? Do you have access to an international generic source in order to do an end-around Big Pharma gouges? If there is a way you can do this, I think you would certainly increase your market. :light:

DENNIS - 12-2-2009 at 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajahowodd
That's kinda funny. Smart and Final Mexico is a joint venture with Calimax. What do they charge for PB at your store on the Bufadora turnoff?

I don't really know. I try to not pay a lot of attention to prices..if I want it, I buy it unless the red flags come up like they did at S+F. The way I look at it, for every item on my time-worn shopping list that becomes available here, It's one less item I have to drag down from the states.
Actually, I don't think they have Skippys at that Calimax. Costco does and it's a lot more reasonable than S+F.

DENNIS - 12-2-2009 at 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by toneart
I have also dropped my membership in AARP too. They are insurance pimps.

Insurance and investments. That's all they do. They have the older generation believing they're some kind of caring old-folks advocates...best friends in need and all that crapola.
Total nonsense.

Martyman - 12-2-2009 at 04:12 PM

yeah, what is with the parking in Ensenada? All I want is some good skyrockets, ATM action, a fishing licence and a decent cup a joe, but all the parking spot are gone so... i keep going.

Bajahowodd - 12-2-2009 at 04:16 PM

Major hijack here. Seems to me that some of our more seasoned folks are sensing a change. One that they don't like. I'm tempted to draw upon the time honored and shop-worn idea of the more conservative among us that an open and free democracy should be able to chart its own course. I guess what the geezers get all exorcised about is that we don't trust the youth. Maybe for good reason, in that the youth have been carefully molded by the capitalist behemoth to do what is best for the capitalist behemoth. Help!!!!!!!

toneart - 12-2-2009 at 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajahowodd
Major hijack here. Seems to me that some of our more seasoned folks are sensing a change. One that they don't like. I'm tempted to draw upon the time honored and shop-worn idea of the more conservative among us that an open and free democracy should be able to chart its own course. I guess what the geezers get all exorcised about is that we don't trust the youth. Maybe for good reason, in that the youth have been carefully molded by the capitalist behemoth to do what is best for the capitalist behemoth. Help!!!!!!!

Uhhhh, Howie,
Could you please restate this in English? It was a bit too abstract for this geezer. :?:

monoloco - 12-2-2009 at 04:47 PM

I just have one question. Why is this in the fishing and hunting forum? Not that I care, but was just wondering.

DENNIS - 12-2-2009 at 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by monoloco
I just have one question. Why is this in the fishing and hunting forum? Not that I care, but was just wondering.

I think it's surebought/David's first post. He'll get it figuered out.

fishbuck - 12-2-2009 at 05:08 PM

Well if I'm in town the will be a noticable rise in generic Viagra sales!
How has the talent a Paris been lately?

Bajahowodd - 12-2-2009 at 05:09 PM

I'm with loco on that. Thought crossed my mind, but I figured that we all make mistakes. Hit the wrong key, Etc. That said, I consider Tony and rico to be amigos. They are welcome to U2U if they really don't understand.

DENNIS - 12-2-2009 at 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by fishbuck
How has the talent a Paris been lately?

They've been temporarily shut down. All of the talent came up with a pale blue coloring to their skin. They think they know why.

fishbuck - 12-2-2009 at 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by fishbuck
How has the talent a Paris been lately?

They've been temporarily shut down. All of the talent came up with a pale blue coloring to their skin. They think they know why.

Man, I hate it when that happens? :cool:

tripledigitken - 12-2-2009 at 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by monoloco
I just have one question. Why is this in the fishing and hunting forum? Not that I care, but was just wondering.

I think it's surebought/David's first post. He'll get it figuered out.

It may be in just the right forum. :cool:

Timo1 - 12-2-2009 at 05:26 PM

I hope the American economy follows along with the Canuck economy
Things are shaping up nicely here

fishbuck - 12-2-2009 at 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Timo1
I hope the American economy follows along with the Canuck economy
Things are shaping up nicely here

Did Canada feel the "Great Recession"? And what is happening to help it recover?

Timo1 - 12-2-2009 at 05:33 PM

Oh yea
Hit us hard here too
Real estate prices and sales are back ...now with bidding on houses going on
Housing starts are WAY up
Unemployment is falling
Back to normal just about.....except the forestry industry

oldlady - 12-2-2009 at 05:53 PM

Most commodities are priced in (falling) dollars. Canada is a commodity exporter so the increase in commodity prices is good for their economy, among other things.

Timo1 - 12-2-2009 at 06:26 PM

We didn't de-regulate

Bajahowodd - 12-2-2009 at 06:47 PM

So, regulation is good?

Timo1 - 12-2-2009 at 06:55 PM

It worked here
In the 80s derugulation of the financial institutions (banks) was proposed
The US did...we didn't
As a result allour Banks and mortgage companies need a minimum 150% cash back-up for every transaction...most run around 230%
Varifiable on morningstar.ca our watchdog
So we don't have THAT big hole to climb
out of

k-rico - 12-2-2009 at 07:19 PM

It's not regulation, it's policing. Wouldn't be needed if thieves didn't abound.

You have nothing to fear but greed itself, or something like that.

Timo1 - 12-2-2009 at 07:24 PM

Ok....well the policing worked here

k-rico - 12-2-2009 at 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Timo1
Ok....well the policing worked here

yes, and good for Canada, an admirable place

tripledigitken - 12-2-2009 at 08:34 PM

And don't forget that Canada EXPORTS lots of snow birds that come to Baja and spend money to help the economy there!

arrowhead - 12-2-2009 at 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Timo1
Oh yea
Hit us hard here too
Real estate prices and sales are back ...now with bidding on houses going on
Housing starts are WAY up
Unemployment is falling
Back to normal just about.....except the forestry industry

Canada didn't get hit as hard as the US because it didn't have the real estate bubble to the same extent as the US. Canadian banks enjoy a competitive environment that does not exist in the US. For all intents and purposes, there are only 5 Canadian banks. They hold 95% of the bank assets in Canada. So, competition is more gentlemanly (read fixed). Right now, a 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the US is priced around 4.75%. Canada doesn't have 30-year mortgages, they go out 25-years but will only fix the interest rate out to 10 years. A 10-year fixed rate mortgage in Canada now is around 6.95%. So, the same priced house in Canada has 50% higher mortgage payments than the same house in the US. Stability has its costs.

The forestry sector is in the tank because Canada sells most of its lumber to the US, which is used for construction. Construction in the US is almost non-existent.

Timo1 - 12-2-2009 at 08:49 PM

Thats real interesting....no idea where you get that from...Our fixed is at 4.17%
But you're the one that knows whats going on here I guess
by the way...our real estate is thru the roof on prices
Bubble???.....more like hot air balloon

toneart - 12-2-2009 at 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajahowodd
I'm with loco on that. Thought crossed my mind, but I figured that we all make mistakes. Hit the wrong key, Etc. That said, I consider Tony and rico to be amigos. They are welcome to U2U if they really don't understand.

Howie,
Here again is another terse, abstract post by you today. What is your reference here? I never questioned David's posting in the wrong place, if this is what you are talking about. K-Rico did. What is the U2U reference that I am supposed to not understand? The only thing(s) I don't understand are your posts today. Very strange. You are usually quite articulate. When you say something, please spell it all out. If you are questioning any of my logic in my posts, that is OK. I like the exchange. But you are kinda mumbling under your breath and I don't get it.

I don't know K-Rico, but I strive to be amigos with everyone here unless they unleash personal attacks. (I don't consider yours a personal attack by the way). OK amigo :?:

Oops, it wasn't K-rico who questioned David's misplaced post. It was Monoloco. That really confuses me now. I have no idea what Bahowodd is talking about.

[Edited on 12-3-2009 by toneart]

surebought - 12-3-2009 at 08:01 AM

Thanks everyone for your thoughts about my question. I am new on bajanomads and I am finding it somewhat difficult to navigate. Thus the catagory of Hunting and Fishing. I will correct that error. You all expressed your thoughts with clarity and real knowledge of the situation in Baja. We are continuing with the Farmacia Medicine Man in Ensenada, by the way. We survived the Liquor Store two doors down which I understand is closing this week. And you won't get much argument from me about the motives of Big Pharma. But that's a story for another post.

BajaGeoff - 12-3-2009 at 11:33 AM

From what we have seen in our business over the last few months, things are turning around for the better. Our sales last month were almost on par with 2007 levels, which is incredible. It is not just us either...Hugh Kramer from Discover Baja indicated they had seen the same upswing recently too.

We still have a long way to go, but are optimistic for 2010. With all the factors contributing to make 2009 as rough as it was (drug crime, swine flu, bad economy, new passport requirement) I think 2010 will be a great year. Even if there are more economic bubbles bursting, Baja will continue to be a great value for travelers.

Just my optimistic two cents!

My Bad, Tony

Bajahowodd - 12-3-2009 at 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by toneart

Quote:

Oops, it wasn't K-rico who questioned David's misplaced post. It was Monoloco. That really confuses me now. I have no idea what Bahowodd is talking about.

[Edited on 12-3-2009 by toneart]

Just coming to the realization that I can't multi-task as I once did. For the last few minutes before I left here yesterday, I was engaged in a discussion with someone and had only one eye on these posts. I'm sticking to that story.

wessongroup - 12-4-2009 at 06:49 AM

Don't see a lot of "growth" for Northern Baja.. as it is more dependent on border cross traffic, and with the "jobs" situation in the United States.. it's going to be a while, a long while for things to pick up.

The other singular important issue for growth is the lack of water. Drip can only go so far, and recycling of waster water too.

It's hard for any real industry to develop without water and power.

Can't really see where the jobs are going to come from in the States.. unemployment is 40% in many of the Agricultural growing areas in California, NO WATER and the average for the States if you believe the "stats" is 10.2%, with many just giving up.. there is no work for many, many people, or work that would pay the "living style" most Americans have come to expect".

Lack of jobs in the U.S. is only one issue facing Baja North in the coming year(s)

The only positive thing I know about Baja North, these people are used to not having... so not having is not a biG woof to most of them ... they still get by

I see them coming down to the flats in front of where I'm staying at low tide to get "lobster, shell fish and the rest.

The people here are a tough lot, they have to be.... used to be that way in the United States 70 years ago.. either you "cut it" or you were on the street looking for a place to sleep...

One other thing, please tell me your Bank that is giving you 4.16% on a 30 year fixed loan PLEASE

[Edited on 12-4-2009 by wessongroup]

woody with a view - 12-4-2009 at 06:56 AM

one thing's for sure. the waves keep coming!!!

if the cartel scare keeps up maybe DK's maps won't be such a big deal for a few more years..... 'cuz where we go there ain't nothing but what you bring.

wessongroup - 12-4-2009 at 07:00 AM

"'cuz where we go there ain't nothing but what you bring"

That and another poster who said please "don't pave the roads" are the two big ones that helps keep things right.. just about any place

oxxo - 12-4-2009 at 07:06 AM

I know some of the management staff at some of the Los Cabos resorts. They ALL tell me that reservations for the next 4 months are WAY UP for the same period at this time last year. Here's to keeping your fingers crossed!