BajaNomad - Japan 8.9 earthquake. Pacific wide tsunami watch/warning

Japan 8.9 earthquake. Pacific wide tsunami watch/warning

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landyacht318 - 3-11-2011 at 02:06 AM

They are saying if it hits southern California will hit between 8 and 9 am march 11.

Pull those pangas out!

Edit: The advisory is now a warning. 1 meter high surges expected along west coast.

[Edited on 3-11-2011 by landyacht318]

shari - 3-11-2011 at 03:28 AM

Holy crap...a good neighbour just banged on my window at 3:00 am to warn me of a possible tsunami here....what a nightmare this disaster is....no police warnings yet but I am certainly getting a getaway bag ready and charging camera batteries and seriously thinking about what to do next...good luck everyone.

[Edited on 3-11-2011 by shari]

wwareaslhvpd9-06.jpg - 47kB

Pompano - 3-11-2011 at 04:33 AM

Tsunami is imminent. Good luck to all of you on the Pacific Coast.

Please warn your neighbors now.... and prepare for emergency evacuation to higher ground.

woody with a view - 3-11-2011 at 05:04 AM

good luck amigos. we'll be around SQ heading south by 9am. praying to Neptune that it's not any more than a small surge.

BajaWarrior - 3-11-2011 at 05:25 AM

I saw live footage of the Tsunami last night at 11:00. It just tossed everything in it's path... As of 4:15 a.m. no word of damage from Hawaii...

Diver - 3-11-2011 at 06:18 AM

Scheduled to reach So Cal around 8:30 this morning at a max of 1 to 3 feet.
Maybe 9-9:30 am for Asuncion but should be less surge there.

BajaRat - 3-11-2011 at 06:39 AM

Glad to see ya'll are on it. DON'T PLAY WITH THIS ONE. 8.9 is huge with great damage potential. NOAA tsunami and USGS good info sites. Stay up on high ground.
Lionel

monoloco - 3-11-2011 at 06:42 AM

I hope it's just big enough to wash the Cerritos Beach Club away.

Diver - 3-11-2011 at 06:48 AM

Check out this video of the tsunami in Japan.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8375389...

Maddie - 3-11-2011 at 07:17 AM

Please take care. Don't forget the "animales".

BillP - 3-11-2011 at 07:27 AM

Looks like the main surge will be north of Pt Conception, south of that will be 2' feet or less. Arrival times for CA:

* San Francisco at 8:16 a.m.
* Santa Barbara at 8:24 a.m.
* San Pedro at 8:32 a.m.
* Santa Monica at 8:39 a.m.
* Newport Beach at 8:45 a.m.
* La Jolla at 8:48 a.m.

Kabc LA

BajaRat - 3-11-2011 at 07:53 AM

Those are only estimates, Local conditions can change everything. Don't take chances evacuate to higher ground.

DENNIS - 3-11-2011 at 08:00 AM

I was in Hawaii during one of these alerts and those folks take it seriously, grabbing what they can....dogs, cats, bird cages, and heading for high ground. Better safe than sorry.

Good luck to all you folks who live in the Federal Zone. That may change as well.

Woooosh - 3-11-2011 at 08:13 AM

Hey fellow nomads. What''s the latest info for us in Rosarito Beach?

San Diego area

bajaguy - 3-11-2011 at 08:19 AM

http://tinyurl.com/4l4aloo

KurtG - 3-11-2011 at 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by shari
Holy crap...a good neighbour just banged on my window at 3:00 am to warn me of a possible tsunami here....what a nightmare this disaster is....no police warnings yet but I am certainly getting a getaway bag ready and charging camera batteries and seriously thinking about what to do next...good luck everyone.

[Edited on 3-11-2011 by shari]

Predicted 5-7 ft here Avila Beach/Port San Luis at 8:03. Kathy is right now at her office at the Avila Community Services District which is right at sea level and is supervising securing the waste water plant which is also at sea level or just above. She promised to be up on the hill before 8:00.

DENNIS - 3-11-2011 at 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by KurtG
securing the waste water plant which is also at sea level or just above.

Overwhelming irony.

I've lived through a few of these alerts, mostly on the west coast, and they have all turned into non-events. Of course, better safe than sorry..........head for the hills, or the Mall.

KurtG - 3-11-2011 at 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by KurtG
securing the waste water plant which is also at sea level or just above.

Your memory is pretty short or you weren't paying attention. Does Crescent City ring a bell? The people who died probably wouldn't consider it a non-event.

Osprey - 3-11-2011 at 08:56 AM

Hope Skipjack Joe in Half Moon Bay has climbed the nearest mountain and is safe and sound.

David K - 3-11-2011 at 09:04 AM

Incredible happenings... I wish everyone to be safe!

Woooosh - 3-11-2011 at 09:30 AM

They cleared the beaches in Rosarito of people, but have not gone door to door to ask for evacuations. Not sure they do that here anyway. Many of our neighbors called or knocked on our door earlier to warn us. Most have already left for higher ground (about a ten minute drive though). We are at sea level, the house is designed for one meter of incoming water and hopefully any incoming water would be free of debris (a good thing). We have the exterior security cameras focused on the beach.

We have everything loaded in the truck ready to go. We have the advantage of watching the tsunami work it's way down the CA coast. Only an advisory here, so we are hopeful and we don't want to leave the house for higher ground too early. Everyone is watching for the telltale signs of it coming- when it looks like you could walk across the sand from Rosarito Beach to the Coronado Islands.

Our neighbor is confined to bed with a back injury- so we are keeping in close touch with them. Another reason we are waiting until the last minute here.

mulegemichael - 3-11-2011 at 09:50 AM

our kids live in japan...just talked to them a few minutes ago and they said the quake was waaaayyyy off the charts!...

KurtG - 3-11-2011 at 10:07 AM

Happy to report so far nothing serious here, water receded dramatically but no strong surge. Warning remains in effect for next hour or so.

shari - 3-11-2011 at 10:08 AM

nothing here yet...no evacuatiions....we just finshed lobster omelette with Baja Bernie and Jaime and Ken and we have our cameras ready...all pangas were pulled high up early and our papers are in the truck just in case...wondering whether to disconnect and put the computer in the car...tick tick tick...juan is out stocking up on beer...B
Bernie assures us it will be a non event....tsunami brunch will be at Nan&

's up on the hill but we are torn between watching it here or from the hill....hmmmm.

mtgoat666 - 3-11-2011 at 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by shari
nothing here yet...no evacuatiions....we just finshed lobster omelette with Baja Bernie and Jaime and Ken and we have our cameras ready...all pangas were pulled high up early and our papers are in the truck just in case...wondering whether to disconnect and put the computer in the car...tick tick tick...juan is out stocking up on beer...B
Bernie assures us it will be a non event....tsunami brunch will be at Nan&

's up on the hill but we are torn between watching it here or from the hill....hmmmm.

according to noaa tsunami warning ctr, will hit punta abreojos at about 0940 san diego time (1040 your time)

mtgoat666 - 3-11-2011 at 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by mtgoat666

Quote:

's up on the hill but we are torn between watching it here or from the hill....hmmmm.

according to noaa tsunami warning ctr, will hit punta abreojos at about 0940 san diego time (1040 your time)

arrival times in GMT:

ENSENADA 31.8N 243.2E 1650Z 11 MAR
PUNTA_ABREOJOS 26.7N 246.4E 1738Z 11 MAR
CABO_SAN_LUCAS 22.8N 250.0E 1815Z 11 MAR

David K - 3-11-2011 at 10:25 AM

At 8.9, it was the largest quake to ever hit Japan, and the 5th largest recorded quake in World History. The USS Ronald Reagan is being prepared to leave San Diego to assist Japan.

The Tsunami (first wave) was not noticed here in Southern California, however in Santa Cruz Harbor about 6 boats were damaged or sunk, as well as some dock damage.

wessongroup - 3-11-2011 at 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by shari
nothing here yet...no evacuations....we just finshed lobster omelette with Baja Bernie and Jaime and Ken and we have our cameras ready...all pangas were pulled high up early and our papers are in the truck just in case...wondering whether to disconnect and put the computer in the car...tick tick tick...juan is out stocking up on beer...B
Bernie assures us it will be a non event....tsunami brunch will be at Nan&

's up on the hill but we are torn between watching it here or from the hill....hmmmm.

Good for Juan, a man after my own heart .... somethings are really important...

Best of luck.. to all ... hope its only another alarm... know the warning scared hell out of me the other year on the one generated though the earthquake in Chili ... it was the one thing I had not planned for... a tsunami !!!! I was by myself without a car... and on the beach... was kinda thinking of the movie "Deep Impact" for a few hours that morning...

Woooosh - 3-11-2011 at 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by David K
At 8.9, it was the largest quake to ever hit Japan, and the 5th largest recorded quake in World History. The USS Ronald Reagan is being prepared to leave San Diego to assist Japan.

The Tsunami (first wave) was not noticed here in Southern California, however in Santa Cruz Harbor about 6 boats were damaged or sunk, as well as some dock damage.

Looks like a non-event here in Rosarito. All the local news stations were at the beach our front of the house with cameras- but have now left. whew.

Front Row Seat

bajaguy - 3-11-2011 at 10:46 AM

wiley.....too bad you moved. You could be sitting on that beach wall with a cold Pacifico and a camera!!!!!

play it safe

djh - 3-11-2011 at 10:48 AM

Quote:

's up on the hill but we are torn between watching it here or from the hill....hmmmm.

Go up the hill to the tsunami brunch.... enjoy your friends and the event from a safe distance. Let's hope it is a non-event for you guys, but we all want to know you're safe

djh

shari - 3-11-2011 at 11:04 AM

the first wave just came and left and we are on the second now...looked like tt went out about a meter....big tde rip between the island and the point....cool

Ho Hum

MrBillM - 3-11-2011 at 11:09 AM

No Big Deal on the West Coast.

All of the advice about Running for High Ground and Climbing Hills in fear of a couple feet of "possible" surge figured to be nonsensical and it WAS.

A usual Winter Storm brings more Tidal action.

BCSTech - 3-11-2011 at 11:13 AM

http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/livenow?id=8007618

bajafam - 3-11-2011 at 11:21 AM

Were glad your safe.
Our hearts are with everyone. Love Fam.

BCSTech - 3-11-2011 at 11:21 AM

http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/state&id=8007112

[Edited on 3-11-2011 by BCSTech]

bajafam - 3-11-2011 at 11:32 AM

Live from so. cal. Seal beach they still think more to come. Weird Shari to think the effects are possibly being felt at the same time in so. cal. Maybe the sea floor. They say these waves travel from the ocean floor to the surface the entire trip. Rat

Woooosh - 3-11-2011 at 11:46 AM

Looks like Crescent City CA got the only real damage- to boats and houses... so far.

BajaRat - 3-11-2011 at 11:55 AM

The way things are shaping up there rewriting the the way they calculate travel times. That's news from USGS Los Angeles.

BajaSerg - 3-11-2011 at 11:59 AM

Thanks for the info Woooosh its good to know everything is well in Rosarito beach, we have a part time home on the beach in RicaMar.......thanks again... BajaSerg

BajaRat - 3-11-2011 at 12:12 PM

Shari, update.

DENNIS - 3-11-2011 at 12:28 PM

Nothing happening here. A few people lined up on the bluff waiting as they would for a parade.
Oh well, it's a Mexican Tsumani after it crosses a certain line. Mexican stuff is always late.

Martyman - 3-11-2011 at 12:36 PM

Santa Cruz harbor in CA had quite a bit of damage

shari - 3-11-2011 at 12:37 PM

we are celebrating survivng the tsunami...still out on the patio watching long waves coming and going....still seems to be happening.

Bajagypsy - 3-11-2011 at 12:57 PM

so glad all is well Shari, was a bit concerned for you. Take lots of pictures and have a new-mex for me!

BajaRat - 3-11-2011 at 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajagypsy
so glad all is well Shari, was a bit concerned for you. Take lots of pictures and have a new-mex for me!

Have one for me to and lets say prayers for those that are not so fortunate in this ongoing disaster.

mtgoat666 - 3-11-2011 at 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MrBillM
Ho Hum

No Big Deal on the West Coast.

what do you call this, mr bile?

------------------------

Eight-foot waves from the Japan tsunami destroyed much of Crescent City harbor, battered boats, closed the 101 Freeway and left one person missing.

KDRV-TV reported that four people were washed out to sea Friday. Three were hurt and one is feared dead.

[Updated at 12:21 a.m.: The Associated Press reported that the Coast Guard was searching for a man swept out to sea while taking pictures of the tsunami.]

Local residents reported that about three dozen boats were "crushed" in the harbor and that surging waters significantly damaged or destroyed most of the docks. Ocean water surging up Elk Creek north of the harbor reportedly lapped up to front doors of the community's cultural center.

Officials were warning residents to expect higher surges throughout the day, one resident said by telephone. Officials from the Sheriff's Department and the city could not be reached. Crescent City, near the Oregon border, was the scene of a devastating tsunami in 1964 which killed 11 people and destroyed 289 homes and businesses.

Woooosh - 3-11-2011 at 02:02 PM

I'm betting he will say that's one less idiot in the gene pool, and I agree. Anyone out on a rock taking pictures during a tsunami event isn't worth the effort to save them. With 8 hours notice, no one should have been surprised.

Now the Japan nuke thing has me a bit concerned- which way does the wind blow?

BajaRat - 3-11-2011 at 02:28 PM

Tragic for many.

So, No Big Deal !

MrBillM - 3-11-2011 at 02:43 PM

Well, at least on SoCal's West Coast.

It was a hoot watching the coverage from Santa Monica of the EVENT. Well, Non-Event.

Beach closed. Patrols keeping ALL at least two-hundred feet from the water. Pier Closed off. Lines of people with their Video Cameras looking at FLAT WATER. Dead Calm. One gal said "I expected to see something more than calm water". Her companion said "next time they give a Tsunami warning, I'm sleeping in".

Second in the "It's a Hoot" category would be the aerial coverage from Santa Cruz showing the Bumper-to-Bumper traffic of Escapees fleeing for their lives. Schools closed.

The End is Near. The Sky is Falling and the Ocean's Rising.

BajaRat - 3-11-2011 at 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MrBillM
Well, at least on SoCal's West Coast.

It was a hoot watching the coverage from Santa Monica of the EVENT. Well, Non-Event. I, we take risks.But we would hate to be trampled by the heard.

Beach closed. Patrols keeping ALL at least two-hundred feet from the water. Pier Closed off. Lines of people with their Video Cameras looking at FLAT WATER. Dead Calm. One gal said "I expected to see something more than calm water". Her companion said "next time they give a Tsunami warning, I'm sleeping in".

Second in the "It's a Hoot" category would be the aerial coverage from Santa Cruz showing the Bumper-to-Bumper traffic of Escapees fleeing for their lives. Schools closed.

The End is Near. The Sky is Falling and the Ocean's Rising.

[Edited on 3-11-2011 by BajaRat]

BajaRat - 3-11-2011 at 03:00 PM

I, we take risks.But we would hate to be trampled by the heard.

Cypress - 3-11-2011 at 03:03 PM

Basing the impact of the earthquake on CA is typical. The term "self centered" comes to mind. Self centered? Yep! That pretty much sums it up.

BajaGringo - 3-11-2011 at 03:06 PM

If nobody had told us that there was a tsunami watch the whole thing would have gone completely unnoticed out here west of San Quintin. Looks just like any other day here...

DENNIS - 3-11-2011 at 03:15 PM

Lots of damage in Japan. That it's a wealthy country promises far less TV time we have to endure for their ordeal. Thank the United States for that.

See??? We do do some good for the world.

We also do lots of other do do, but that's another story.

KurtG - 3-11-2011 at 03:17 PM

Interesting morning in both Morro Bay and Avila Beach/Port San Luis. There were a number of rapid changes in sea level that was like watching the tide change 4-5 times in an hour. Morro Bay has a narrow harbor mouth so the currents were rushing in and out of the harbor and caused some damage to boats moored in the harbor. Currents within the harbor were estimated at around 15 knots. A friend's 50' steel commercial boat was struck by a collapsing concrete portion of the pier, damage unknown right now. Avila Beach/Port San Luis is south-facing and wide open so no such effects but the water receded almost to the end of Avila Pier at one point and a buoy attached to a rock on the west end of the beach was high and dry on the rock. The pier at Pismo was completely high and dry for a brief period. Report from Port San Luis was that the surge was plus and minus 4 ft. That was confirmed by the Diablo Canyon power plant. Fortunately it appears that damage is limited to a few boats and some harbor infrastructure . The good part is that it provided a good example of how the various agencies respond and I've got to say that the CHP, our Sheriff's department and especially the guys from Cal Fire were using this incident to train, not just standing around. I spent some time where the Cal Fire guys were set up and they were good enough to show me how their computer set ups in the engines work. Very impressive stuff. Most of all I came away REALLY WANTING A PAIR OF THOSE GYRO STABILIZED NIKON 16X binocs!

AndyP - 3-11-2011 at 03:17 PM

We just got turned back from the road to Ojo de Liebre past Guerrero Negro, the campground is closed until tomorrow.

KurtG - 3-11-2011 at 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Cypress
Basing the impact of the earthquake on CA is typical. The term "self centered" comes to mind. Self centered? Yep! That pretty much sums it up.

Preparing for the possible tsunami here certainly doesn't mean that our hearts don't go out to the victims of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

DENNIS - 3-11-2011 at 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by KurtG
Most of all I came away REALLY WANTING A PAIR OF THOSE GYRO STABILIZED NIKON 16X binocs!

Not an inexpensive purchase, I would suppose.

Sorry, Kurt, for making lite of damage, past and present, due to Tsunamis. I have seen the water marks on the hillsides above Crescent City. That was in the mid sixties, my road trip. Don't know if the marks have stood the test of time.

Anyway, I apologize.

KurtG - 3-11-2011 at 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DENNIS

Quote:

Originally posted by KurtG
Most of all I came away REALLY WANTING A PAIR OF THOSE GYRO STABILIZED NIKON 16X binocs!

No problem, it is easy to get used to the tv folks overblowing every event and get a little cynical. Just human nature. As to those Nikon binocs. While caressing them I happened to mention to Kathy that I do in fact have a birthday approaching. The look I got in reply makes me think the odds are not in my favor.

No Unusual Wave Surges in Rosarito on our West Facing Beach

Gypsy Jan - 3-11-2011 at 04:08 PM

We've been watching the water action all day long and even put up a camera to record it.

The Cal Tech seismologist held a news conference earlier today.

Two very interesting things were said that were said stuck with me.

1. As far as the west coast of California is concerned, a "very tall" tsunami would crest at four feet. Whew! We are seventeen feet above mean high tide.

2. The entire east coast of Japan has shifted eight feet outwards. Yikes!

Skipjack Joe - 3-11-2011 at 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gypsy Jan

2. The entire east coast of Japan has shifted eight feet outwards. Yikes!

I am reminded of how Anjin San saved Lord Toranaga!

Woooosh - 3-11-2011 at 08:26 PM

I'm starting to give credence to the "world ends on 12/21/2012 people". Between escalating natural disasters, north Africa and Mid-East political instability and the teetering world economy I'm almost willing to give that Mayan calendar thing the benefit of the doubt. It seems everything is percolating.

The Drama Continues

MrBillM - 3-11-2011 at 08:32 PM

Quake, Tsunami AND Soon .........

Nuclear Reactor MELTDOWN ?

THAT'S Entertainment !

landyacht318 - 3-11-2011 at 08:50 PM

By 9:00 am, when I saw the ocean drain out a whole 6 inches here in North County, I went surfing, and had it to myself for almost 2 hours before A light crowd formed.

However, the swell seemed to climb from knee to waist high to chest to neck high in about 20 minutes. There is a new swell forecast to fill in tomorrow, but it seemed to have filled in completely by sundown today.
Whether the swell forecast was just wrong, or the Tsunami sped up it's arrival, I know not.

The hundreds of spectators lining the bluff must have thousands of ocean photos taken by their cell phones showing absolutely nothing. Never the less, the hordes were there expounding on their vast knowledge of earthquakes and plate tectonics as I walked by them, shuddering at the inaccuracy and downright ignorance of their statements.

El Jefe - 3-12-2011 at 07:57 AM

East Cape Report. I was down sitting on the beach 4:20 PM yesterday watching the "tide" go in and out. It was literaly going from high tide to low tide in a matter of two minutes. One minute the reef is exposed and the next, after a set of about six close interval waves, the reef it is under water. It was at least a three foot swing in depth. Crazy. It was doing it over and over again. In-shore waters were all stirred up.

ElCap - 3-12-2011 at 08:18 AM

I watched the surges hit Ocean Beach (San Francisco) yesterday morning about 8:30am. Went from low tide to high tide to low tide in about 6 minutes. Very impressive, but if you were not looking at the tidal change you would have missed it. No noticeable wave size increase (the waves were already big, as usual). There was substantial damage at Santa Cruz Harbor and Crescent City where the harbor mouth orientation and constriction, combined with a large volume of water within harbor with nowhere else to go, created extreme currents caused by the tidal surges.
I'm curious if locations like La Bocana in Baja experienced similar effects. That place seems perfect for that type of effect. Any reports from there? Or other similar estuary mouths? Or Turtle Bay, Laguna San Ignacio, Campo Rene? Gracias.

Skipjack Joe - 3-12-2011 at 08:38 AM

Glad you brought that up as I almost posted the same thought. Having seen and fished the current going and coming into Laguna Manuela I can just imagine what it must have been like. A raging river. The entire lagoon needs to empty out in, what, 15 minutes. I wonder if that guard shack by the mouth is still standing. Or the pangas in the inlet by the mouth.

On the other hand perhaps the shorter wave length would cause the water to start coming in before the lagoon has drained. That would counteract or shorten the time of the water surges and dampen the effect of moving water.

Those openings must have been the highlight of the effect this tsunami had on baja.

[Edited on 3-12-2011 by Skipjack Joe]

Well, at least, we Now KNOW WHY

MrBillM - 3-12-2011 at 10:24 AM

Despite the Speculation that the Tokyo Shake-and-Tsunami "might" have been a Submarine Nuclear Event planned at a secret meeting on the Island of Malta guarded by the Knights Templar working under the direct orders of a Neo-Conservative group loyal to George Bush headed by Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld working in close cooperation with the Governing board of the Illuminati under the close watch of the Bilderberg Group after receiving input from the International Freemasons having received a directive from the Supreme Elite Cabal of Jewish Bankers resulting from their secret council with the Pope, the OFFICIAL word has come from Europe:

It was a result of: GLOBAL WARMING.

OF COURSE.

Glad that's settled.

captkw - 3-12-2011 at 12:10 PM

check out the www santa cruz sentinel ..... my harbor, in santa cruz ca. got hit HARD!! as a boat mechanic I will be ending my b.c.s winter, bummer..

[Edited on 3-12-2011 by captkw]

BornFisher - 3-12-2011 at 12:12 PM

I think I`m the only one on the coast who knew nothing about the quake until I was getting pushed back and forth in La Salina harbor after fishing. Left the dock to go out fishing about 7:30, came back at 12:30 and stopped in the basin to clean fish. Then it was "what the heck is going on here?". The harbor was like a river, coming in one minute and going back out the next.
Thoughts and prayers go out the the people of Japan.

captkw - 3-12-2011 at 12:29 PM

uhhh,, where is la salina???

La Salina Marina

Gypsy Jan - 3-12-2011 at 12:37 PM

Hi captkw,

Here is the Wikipedia info on the place, but YMMV (take it with a grain of salt, your mileage may vary).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Salina,_Baja_California

[Edited on 3-12-2011 by Gypsy Jan]

Another "Possible" Cause ?

MrBillM - 3-12-2011 at 12:49 PM

My wife has theorized that it "might" have been a result of Godzilla Awakening and Rising Once Again.

BUT, if so, he (she ?) hasn't been seen and neither has Raymond Burr, which could possibly be the first indicator.

I'm a bit skeptical, but Quien Sabe ?

La Salina

bajaguy - 3-12-2011 at 12:52 PM

Is located on the Toll Road (Highway 1) betwen Ensenada and Rosarito

http://www.baja-web.com/la-salina/index.html

http://tinyurl.com/4tdg6w8

[Edited on 3-12-2011 by bajaguy]

Disaster Economics

MrBillM - 3-12-2011 at 01:11 PM

Although I wouldn't make the case, reading the coverage this a.m. regarding the Death and Destruction, it occurred to me that an argument "might" be made that the BIGGEST problem with these events is that the Death vs. Destruction ratio is too disparate. Given that People need resources and infrastructure, IF the Death rate was significantly higher, it would offset the loss of resource necessary to support those numbers. In a situation where the economic losses are in the Billions (or Hundreds of Billions) and the loss of life in the Hundreds or (maybe) thousands, there will always be a disabling economic loss. But, of course, it is unlikely that we'll ever see a disaster where there's a sort of Equilibrium. In the past, Bangladesh seems to have come closer to achieving a more positive ratio, but even there, it has still remained a wide gap.

Certainly a Conundrum wrapped within an Enigma.

Got that from watching "JFK" (again) last night.

[Edited on 3-12-2011 by MrBillM]

monoloco - 3-12-2011 at 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MrBillM
Although I wouldn't make the case, reading the coverage this a.m. regarding the Death and Destruction, it occurred to me that an argument "might" be made that the BIGGEST problem with these events is that the Death vs. Destruction ratio is too disparate. Given that People need resources and infrastructure, IF the Death rate was significantly higher, it would offset the loss of resource necessary to support those numbers. In a situation where the economic losses are in the Billions (or Hundreds of Billions) and the loss of life in the Hundreds or (maybe) thousands, there will always be a disabling economic loss. But, of course, it is unlikely that we'll ever see a disaster where there's a sort of Equilibrium. In the past, Bangladesh seems to have come closer to achieving a more positive ratio, but even there, it has still remained a wide gap.

Certainly a Conundrum wrapped within an Enigma.

Got that from watching "JFK" (again) last night.

[Edited on 3-12-2011 by MrBillM]

It's good to see that you haven't lost your ability to make a cynical joke about a tragic disaster.

Bajahowodd - 3-12-2011 at 03:50 PM

No kidding. My only question, even after all these years, is whether he is merely a thoughtless provocateur, or a scummy A-hole.

DENNIS - 3-12-2011 at 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bajahowodd
No kidding. My only question, even after all these years, is whether he is merely a thoughtless provocateur, or a scummy A-hole.

He may be a lot of things, but "thoughtless" isn't one of them.

Bajahowodd - 3-12-2011 at 06:00 PM

OK. How about insensitive? :lol:

Huh?

Bajahowodd - 3-12-2011 at 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Woooosh
I'm starting to give credence to the "world ends on 12/21/2012 people". Between escalating natural disasters, north Africa and Mid-East political instability and the teetering world economy I'm almost willing to give that Mayan calendar thing the benefit of the doubt. It seems everything is percolating.

Not so certain you ought to be giving the Mayans so much credit.

Fact is that there have been a number of nutty, fringy groups, and even not so fringy.

A case can be made that so much of the anti-evolution movement, and those fighting against the environmentalists, do so because they are c-cksure that the world will be ending soon. Or at least, the rapture is nigh.

http://contenderministries.org/prophecy/endtimes.php

Insensitive ? Moi ?

MrBillM - 3-12-2011 at 08:45 PM

As somebody once said, I Resemble THAT Remark.

Liberals (mostly) and others WASTE a lot of time with Heart-Rending expressions of "supposed" sympathies they likely don't mean and which accomplish nothing even if sincere..

Not having had anything to do with the event and mostly powerless to have anything to do with the recovery, expressing some sort of "Me Feel Good" sympathy is a waste of time and contrary to good sense. IMHO.

What I ventured was simply a statement of factual analysis. I wasn't taking a philosophical position pro or con. I prefer to look at these things with an actuarial eye. Sort of like those at Ford who made the "Pinto" decision.

Made sense to me.

Given the poor Financial shape that Japan is currently in (prior debt at 200 percent of GNP according to one analyst) this loss of resource, without a corresponding reduction of human liability, is going to be a difficult hurdle.

The MOST unfortunate aspect of the whole business is the extent to which this is likely to set back Nuclear Energy development.

We'll regret that when everything else is cleaned up and buried.

wessongroup - 3-12-2011 at 10:43 PM

Spot on .....

monoloco - 3-13-2011 at 06:50 AM

When the costs of cleaning up the destroyed reactors is added to the cost of building them it is likely to be many times the value of the power that was generated by them. I'll be thinking about that the next time I hear a politician bloviating about safe nuclear power.

Skipjack Joe - 3-13-2011 at 07:52 AM

To be fair you should compare the money generated by ALL reactors to the cost of repairing one reactor. It seems to me.

DENNIS - 3-13-2011 at 07:56 AM

Possible 10,000 dead in one district?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42056235/ns/world_news-asia-paci...

monoloco - 3-13-2011 at 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Skipjack Joe
To be fair you should compare the money generated by ALL reactors to the cost of repairing one reactor. It seems to me.

It's likely that all 6 reactors on that stretch of coastline have been rendered useless.

Skipjack Joe - 3-13-2011 at 10:01 AM

Yeah, I'm rethinking the whole nuclear thing. Things could have been a lot worse for all of us. Nuclear power in that region was probably a bad idea. I wonder if they will reassess their decisions. They have fewer choices than we do.

KurtG - 3-13-2011 at 10:01 AM

It was reported this morning that the surge at Port San Luis was 6.6 ft. Since the forecast had been 5-7 ft it was quite accurate for this part of the coast.

Drawing Incorrect Parallels

MrBillM - 3-13-2011 at 10:05 AM

I could care less how they arrive at a cost ratio provided it's "Honestly" arrived at.

The danger is that parallels will be drawn where none exist in order to make points AGAINST the use of Nuclear Power.

They "Should" look at WHAT EXACTLY went wrong and COMPARE that to U.S. procedures and conditions followed and address any weaknesses in design which appear as a result. Conditions which are NOT similar have NO IMPORTANCE in that debate vis-a-vis U.S. production. From what I've seen, the coastal siting conditions in the affected locations were quite different than siting in the U.S.

Just as Chernobyl was immaterial to the question of Nuclear Power in the U.S., no doubt, many of the conditions in Japan will also be immaterial.

mtgoat666 - 3-13-2011 at 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Skipjack Joe
Yeah, I'm rethinking the whole nuclear thing. Things could have been a lot worse for all of us. Nuclear power in that region was probably a bad idea. I wonder if they will reassess their decisions. They have fewer choices than we do.

most everywhere in CA is potentially near a magnitude 7+ quake. Why would anyone want to live near a reactor that gets shaken by a quake? Engineers tell you they engineer for such events, but truth is: it is hard to predict what will fail if you subject a structure to high acceleration and several minutes of intense shaking. engineers only learn by analyzing failure. do you think that engineers will tell you about problems they may have learnt about since san onofre and diablo canyon were constructed 20+ years ago?

conservatives argue for nuclear power, but you won't find any conservatives that want to site a nuke plant in their neighborhood.
unless a conservative lives within 2 miles of a nuke plant, don't believe his/her support of nuke power! (perhaps such support would be reason to question their intelligence)

David K - 3-13-2011 at 10:24 AM

"conservatives argue for nuclear power, but you won't find any conservatives that want to site a nuke plant in their neighborhood.
unless a conservative lives within 2 miles of a nuke plant, don't believe his/her support of nuke power! (perhaps such support would be reason to question their intelligence)"

Wow, I guess you never heard of San Clemente, CA and the Western White House of President Nixon... just as close to San Onofre as a house could get??? :rolleyes:

Liberals argue for wind turbines, but you won't find any near where they live! (Cape Cod, for example)

In the Neighborhood

MrBillM - 3-13-2011 at 10:26 AM

While I never "Lived" next door to a Nuclear Power Plant, I WOULD have if the locale on the coast was one which appealed to me and I could afford it.

I DID spend a LOT of time surfing and swimming adjacent to San Onofre and never gave it a second-thought.

And, I'm still here. Not glowing in the dark.

As far as an Earthquake Location goes, wasn't the "Problem" that crippled the Nip-Nukes, due to the Tsunami ?

mtgoat666 - 3-13-2011 at 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by David K
"conservatives argue for nuclear power, but you won't find any conservatives that want to site a nuke plant in their neighborhood.
unless a conservative lives within 2 miles of a nuke plant, don't believe his/her support of nuke power! (perhaps such support would be reason to question their intelligence)"

Wow, I guess you never heard of San Clemente, CA and the Western White House of President Nixon... just as close to San Onofre as a house could get??? :rolleyes:

Liberals argue for wind turbines, but you won't find any near where they live! (Cape Cod, for example)

hard to understand the motives and words of a crook and liar. i can't explain nixon, as i am not a crook or liar and don't understand how you crooks/liars think

toneart - 3-13-2011 at 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Skipjack Joe
To be fair you should compare the money generated by ALL reactors to the cost of repairing one reactor. It seems to me.

Nuclear power plants on seismic faults, whether in Japan or the California Coastline, is NOT a good idea. Then there is the double whammy of the quake intensity and the potential for a Tsunami.

As to comparing, "you should compare the money generated by ALL reactors to the cost of repairing one reactor"...(and now it appears that several, not one, are involved in partial meltdowns). Yes the statement is fair, but the greatest factor of all is the human element. When considering any energy source, people come first! Money isn't everything. :light:

This tragedy in Japan is hard to watch.

theBajabum - 3-13-2011 at 11:18 AM

Not seeing much of a change in Ensenada right now.

Cypress - 3-13-2011 at 11:57 AM

Nuclear power is a good deal. Regarding living next to a power plant. Some of those cooling ponds have excellent fishing. I'd rather not live next to any type "plant" other than live oaks, palms, cedars, etc.

Skipjack Joe - 3-13-2011 at 01:16 PM

The news bulletins say that the potential meltdown occurred because the quake disrupted the electrical power that runs the cooling systems and the diesel powered backup failed due to being inundated by the tsunami waters. Radiation didn't escape because the pressure never got high enough to blow the outer structure.

But what would have happened it this were an 11 pt quake? Just because they haven't happened - they could. We know that major geologic events happen to this planet. We're sitting on a ball of fire.

The process of reengineering based upon the last event that current standards didn't meet doesn't appeal to me as each new 'accident' exceeds the damage of any previous one. The prudent thing is to ban these plants along the 'ring of fire' and use safer regions.

To compare it to baja: after two recent disasters at Mulege you don't built sturdier walls. You leave the flood plain and move to higher ground.

Cypress - 3-13-2011 at 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Skipjack Joe
To compare it to baja: after two recent disasters at Mulege you don't built sturdier walls. You leave the flood plain and move to higher ground.

landyacht318 - 3-13-2011 at 01:29 PM

According to NHK World English,
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/

The toll is likely in the tens of thousands.

Your political squabblings belong elsewhere.

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