BajaNomad - Hurricane building south of Mazatlan

Hurricane building south of Mazatlan

Osprey - 6-7-2011 at 04:38 PM

Must be 16,000 plus Nomads up north, 2 of us in the south. Hurricanes come from the south. I guess we're the only ones who notice/care.

Can I interest some of you people with a chance of rain? Nobody checked the weather today?

[Edited on 6-7-2011 by Osprey]

DENNIS - 6-7-2011 at 04:50 PM

Made mention of the same activity here, Jorge.

http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=53311#pid6265...

Frank - 6-7-2011 at 05:00 PM

Pretty far south isnt it?

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

Osprey - 6-7-2011 at 05:13 PM

Dennis, I now pronounce you an honorary Southerner.

I lost the "Hot" thread after the 20th "How hot was it?" post. Sorry Russ.

DENNIS - 6-7-2011 at 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Frank
Pretty far south isnt it?

Yeah...it is, but in the last two days it's gathered into a scary looking ball and the direction doesn't look completely safe. A slight shift to the north and it won't be good.

Wondering about water temps in the gulf.

DENNIS - 6-7-2011 at 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Osprey
Dennis, I now pronounce you an honorary Southerner.

I'm indeed honored, Jorge. Muchisimas thank yoos.

Frank - 6-7-2011 at 05:39 PM

Im trying to stay positive here Dennis LOL Im southbound in 14 days.

woody with a view - 6-7-2011 at 05:49 PM

go get em Frank!

bajajudy - 6-7-2011 at 05:56 PM

Osprey
I assume you mean me :dudette:

As the other person who lives in the south....oh and did I mention that I was also a southerner in my other life, y'all
This will fizzle. The water, although warming, is still refreshing every morning.

woody with a view - 6-7-2011 at 06:48 PM

wave model show it dying a slow early death sw of the tip...... should provide some rain!

Frank - 6-7-2011 at 09:13 PM

Tropical Storm Adrian.

DENNIS - 6-7-2011 at 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Frank
Im trying to stay positive here Dennis LOL Im southbound in 14 days.

Wishing you the best, Frank. God will provide.

Hook - 6-7-2011 at 11:02 PM

Lets get real. There is too much cool water between THERE and most parts of Baja to consider this a threat.

But it's good to get us thinking about it.

[Edited on 6-8-2011 by Hook]

stanburn - 6-8-2011 at 05:20 AM

I will let you know what happens when it passes south of me in Manzanillo in a few days. It would be nice to see the rainy season start here. We haven't had rain since September.

tiotomasbcs - 6-8-2011 at 06:30 AM

We could use a soaker! The Pacific is still cold to the toe/touch! Kid from Frisco trunked it yesterday but everyone else is full wetsuit.

Maybe a big chunk will break off and flow over us, Osprey? Our air temps here have been in low 90s but lows only High 60s; very little westerly breeze. Beautiful. New swell rattling my windows! Come on down, amigos. Tio

Osprey - 6-8-2011 at 06:35 AM

That patch of green on NOAA, between the storm and Cabo is 77º water which the weather guys think will turn the storm into a hurricane by the end of the day. After that it's anybody's call. I guess if it goes up by TS it will fall apart but if it veers into the gulf it will be in wet, 84º temps.

bajajudy - 6-8-2011 at 06:53 AM

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/pa...

ccholder - 6-8-2011 at 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Osprey
Must be 16,000 plus Nomads up north, 2 of us in the south. Hurricanes come from the south. I guess we're the only ones who notice/care.

Can I interest some of you people with a chance of rain? Nobody checked the weather today?

[Edited on 6-7-2011 by Osprey]

hurricane season

volcano - 6-8-2011 at 07:16 AM

Quote:

yes, I am most definitely watching from afar for the safety of my little cabana las dunas south of Los Frailles...just had shutter repair done so it won't slam against the house in high winds. Here we go...hurricane season........ be safe down there!!!!

Hmmmm....

O.G. - 6-8-2011 at 08:19 AM

Was planning to start our Southbound Pacific coastal fishing trip this weekend with my 15 yr old son as only crew on our 55' barco. As far South as Turtle Bay and West to Guadalupe Island maybe. Adrian makes me nervous.

toneart - 6-8-2011 at 08:25 AM

It is way too early in the season for it to be of any consequence in BCS. It could make for some rough fishing though.

Mid August to mid Sept. is the time for sweating those bad boys. :smug:

DENNIS - 6-8-2011 at 08:39 AM

Whatever that thing is down there, it has really organized itself although Storm Pulse has it heading NW and shouldn't be too much of a threat. Hope you folks get a little rain out of it. That would be nice.

bajajudy - 6-8-2011 at 09:13 AM

Dennis
Turn on the forecast models on Stormpulse....very interesting

DENNIS - 6-8-2011 at 09:18 AM

WOW....Does anybody have any idea what this thing's gonna do? I guess it has a mind of it's own.

Thanks, Judy. I'll keep trying to figure them out.

mtgoat666 - 6-8-2011 at 09:21 AM

discussion from NWS NHC:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 081442
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH
A WELL-DEFINED LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE-QUARTERS
OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55
KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE
CONVECTIVE BAND HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR
THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.

A 1059 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED WHAT MIGHT BE THE BEGINNING OF A BANDED
EYE FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS JOGGED NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/5.
ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT...OR NORTH...MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.
THIS PUTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSER TO...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT
OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION APPEARS VERY LIKELY AS ADRIAN STILL LIES
OVER ABOUT 30C WATERS AND IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND SHOWS
ADRIAN INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN MORE
SLOWLY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...ADRIAN WILL BE MOVING
OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.

DUE TO THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST.

[Edited on 6-8-2011 by mtgoat666]

Bajatripper - 6-8-2011 at 09:31 AM

Quote:

Just out of curiousity, are you speaking of those four or five houses up on the dunes? If so, I've wondered how that project was built and would be interested in any details you might have. Perhaps you could U2U me?

O.G. - 6-8-2011 at 09:35 AM

Passageweather.com shows a forcasted track for Adrian which dies out near La Paz next week. Of course, any predictions as to the track of any hurricane should be taken with a grain of salt (whatever that means).

El Jefe - 6-8-2011 at 09:42 AM

Cowabunga surf riders!

stanburn - 6-9-2011 at 07:44 AM

This morning is bright and shiny in Manzanillo and the surf is normal.

Adrian

Russ - 6-9-2011 at 08:14 AM

SAT hur. Adrian.jpg - 48kB

Adrian

Russ - 6-9-2011 at 08:16 AM

Adrian.jpg - 46kB

Adrian

Russ - 6-9-2011 at 08:21 AM

Last one

[Edited on 6-9-2011 by Russ]

SAT Adrian.jpg - 45kB

BillP - 6-9-2011 at 10:46 AM

I wish this would have pushed into the SOC thus pushing some moisture up into AZ, the folks in the fire area could use some early summer monsoons, lots of beautiful country going up in flames.

Listo

BFS - 6-9-2011 at 02:16 PM

I'm on a bluff looking straight towards Adrian, light breeze, no clouds, 82 degree water, boards at my side, ready...

woody with a view - 6-9-2011 at 05:42 PM

living the dream.

i'll be out there on recon. lotta work coming up starting monday so i figger it's one last blast with a couple amigos.....

not expecting much, but still, just being there......